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The combined pressure from all of the above will create opportunities for Russia that cannot be clearly foreseen at this time. On the other hand, the future of Ukraine’s economic development, nationalism, military capability, and pro-Moscow leadership is not predictable either. In short, Ukraine remains in play.
Russia’s Far Abroad
Afghanistan: Russia has no interest in seeing the Taliban return to power in Afghanistan, having sponsored the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance prior to America’s invasion. Its reasons for supporting a non-fundamentalist Afghan government remain the same now as in 2000.
Drug Trade: An estimated 30,000 Russians die each year as a result of overdosing on heroin imported from Afghanistan. Countless more lead non-productive or criminal lives because of Afghani heroin. Current and past Russian/U.S. cooperation on the Afghan war has always been accompanied by Russian pressure to stop the drug trade.
Export of Extremism: If the Taliban return to power in Afghanistan, Russians believe (correctly) that this will lead to greater fundamentalist efforts to subvert the governments of Central Asia and Russia proper. Very little is more important to Russia than stopping such a scenario.
China: On one level, the relationship between China and Russia is strong. The border issue that once brought the USSR and China to the brink of war is settled — at least for the foreseeable future. Diplomatic cooperation — often against the U.S. — has become the order of the day. But every year, as China gets militarily, politically, and economically stronger, a proud Russia will increasingly be forced to play the unwanted role of junior partner. This trend is not likely to change, and Russia’s importance to China is increasingly as a source of raw materials, not as a supplier of sophisticated military equipment or other types of manufactured goods. Still, Russian strategic weapons would dominate in any possible confrontation with China in the near term and, as long as that is the case, Moscow’s opinion will count at the table with China. In the long run, Moscow understands things may change and Putin himself has told citizens in Russia’s rapidly depopulating Far East that if they don’t get their act together, one day they will be speaking an Asian language. He did not mention China by name, but everyone in Russia’s Far East knows that this territory was part of China until 1858-1860, when Russia made a land grab from a then-weak China.
Iran: Perhaps no other Russian national security issue generates more internal division than Moscow’s policy toward Iran. On the plus side, after years of postponing their contracted sale of S-300 antiaircraft missiles to Iran, Putin last June announced that the missiles would not be delivered. This is important because Israel has reportedly served notice that it will attack Iran rather than permit any S-300 systems to become operational. Also on the plus side, after years of strong opposition to sanctions against Iran, Moscow supported the successful June 9, 2010, UN vote to sanction Iran — albeit after using their influence to weaken the sanctions.
On the negative side, after many delays, Iran’s Russian-built nuclear power station in Bushehr should be in operation very soon, if it isn’t already by the time you read this.
What are the main ideas influencing Moscow’s Iranian policy? Russians make at least four arguments in favor of cooperation with Iran:
1. An accommodation with Iran postpones the day the Islamic Republic will use its resources to stir up the Muslim populations of Central Asia or — even worse — Russia proper.
2. If a serious crisis occurs with the West, oil prices will go up dramatically — an event that will help Russia.
3. The West’s continuing problems with Iran reduce America’s appetite and capability for playing a role in Ukraine, Georgia, and other parts of the former USSR.
4. Russia profits from reactor and arms sales. Apart from the pending sales, Moscow worries about its credibility with other buyers if the Iran contracts are not met.
The counter-arguments, which are ascendant, include:
1. If Iran gets the nuclear bomb, other unstable and unfriendly Muslim states will also get the bomb. This is dangerous for Russia.
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onward| 1.8.11 @ 3:24AM
mmm2010: "Russia is bad, the good USA.
Another uslashat impossible. You are always right, everyone else including Russia, no. There are U.S. interests, but not the interests of Russia, if they do not fit U.S. interests. Bravo."
NY| 1.8.11 @ 3:53AM
"and sanctity of borders of the former Soviet states" - What an interestin' point of view; so East Europe's borders along with the Middle East borsers ain't sanctity enough so americans ('n' only americans) can do there whatever they want?
"is neither friends nor enemies -- only interests" - Yeah,having your own interests are now illegal,you must only share American's.
Your own arrogance just doesn't know borders...literally.
Inna| 1.8.11 @ 4:08AM
This is really as shallow as shallow can be! Antipathy to the USA is typical not of the national security but of ordinary Russians and results from the disappointment of the 1990s when American haughtiness, condescending and later hostile attitude (from the mass media and politicians) really antagonized many people. This does not make me dislike my American friends but such articles as this one (perhaps the author's sixty-odd visits have been spent in restaurants or in gloomy solitude) will not arouse friendly feelings in Russian readers
Elena| 1.8.11 @ 3:09PM
@ Inna: totally agree! Luckily, there are reasonable Americans who listen to someone's else point of view and understand the reality..
Alex| 1.8.11 @ 7:19AM
It is surprising that a person who travelled a lot throughout Russia remained as ignorant about that country and a hostage of obscure political prejudices of the Cold War style. It seems that Mr. Pirchner failed to learn about many causal relations (particularily on what happened in the 90s) and to obtain a broader and balanced view on things.
EUGrrr| 1.8.11 @ 8:12AM
The author shifts his wrong understanding of a situation, fears and concern to Russia.
SERGIO| 1.8.11 @ 2:05PM
I don't agree with author of the article. It had been many changes in russian's opinion toward US. I ask to not mix our (russian) opinion for US (as state) and for Americans. First, russians disliked the policy of Bush's adimistration. But when Americans made right choice and Obama had became president of US, it was changed for friend. And, our Goverments are staying on the way for better. So, I think, the people's opinion also move to be better step by step.
SERGIO| 1.8.11 @ 2:18PM
In the relation of Latin America, I think it isn't monopoly of US. Russia and russian bussiness are widing the sphere of their interests in whole world. And, It's normally. So It's normally to make friends in Latin America.
tanice22| 1.8.11 @ 2:21PM
Dying of excitement. With greetings from Russia.
Elena| 1.8.11 @ 3:04PM
@ the author: Russia should cancel your visa, dude.. You have learned nothing true about Russians. And, in general, it seems that you have zero respect for any countries: every and each of them is ALLOWED to have own interests. It is not up to the US decide!
Alexander KICHIGUIN| 1.8.11 @ 7:56PM
What is in the shadow of this article is that the foreign policy of the US itself presumes the world domination and total control. The split up of the Soviet Union was an unexpected gift of fate after which the US geo politics strategy has been showing tremendous efforts to establish barriers between the nations who had been living together for centuries long before the US itself was established. Newly created elites - ruling groups and financial groups inside the new countries - former republics of the USSR - are totally in greed and happy with the power they acquired. But life of ordinary people changed much to the worst. The end of the Soviet Union was unexpected and pleasant, another present was Yeltsin with his idiot Mister "Yes" - the Minister of Foreign relations Kozyriev, who really introduced a festival of friendship and concessions for the US. Unfortunately to those who develop the foreign strategy of the US the dissolution of Russia has not taken place after the sudden dissolution of the USSR. The real goal of the US - is to establish control over the territory which is 1/6 part of land. For this reasons troubles are created all over the perimeter of the Russian borders which further leads to military presence. The true ally of the US are English. It is true for centuries - all troubles and manipulations in the Russian Caucasus an Middle Asia are financed by English queen and now - by Americans. Who raised and financed Taliban? Who financed Ben Laden? Take the following for granted: financing Afghan's rebels in 80s again Soviet presence, Iraq in 90s, World Trade Center '01, again Afghanistan in 2001 up till now than again Iraq starting from '03. These events are not coincidence. The moves in this Game are not quite visible even from the distance of the decades. The rates are high, so it worth planning diligently. Another funny thing is the "democracy". It does not exist in the US (a simple example - The President may be elected even if the majority of the country's population voted for the other candidate!!!?) But americans teach everyone around the world and use this chimera to make all rabbit nations prove they are fit for a set up standard or to meet some next american requirement on the way a carrot to be released. Another chimera americans officials put forward is "human rights". Have you ever been interested with how human rights are regarded in the US? And how about China? These points are the elements of a propaganda scheme that the US foreign policy apply to measure all nations in order to remain a self claimed world authority in these issues and look down their noses at everyone else. Have anyone noticed the expression of the American presidents' faces during their visits to foreign countries? Selfish, all deep in pride and the most amusing - how they approvingly and arrogantly with artificial smiles clap the shoulders of presidents who they meet with.
America is a SELF-claimed democracy but in realty is an empire. Empires do not last long. So will the US. But long long after it all countries in the world will be continuing to leave according to their traditions and beliefs in best future respecting each other to the contrary of American's habit to poke one's nose in everything they consider match or not their own standards - which in realty the tools of manipulation. The constant goal of this manipulation to gain the profit, no matter what it takes. For the past several decades americans served the reputation of the most and outmost troublemakers in the world though they designated one after another Empires of Evil. People around the world have brains and abilities to defer. The author of this article deserves compassion he is brainwashed with American ideology of saviors and democracy teachers and mentors. Level of a school student.
samuel welsh| 1.12.11 @ 10:45PM
an americian russian friendship sounds like a good change