The American Spectator : What Does North Korea Want?

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What Does North Korea Want?

By Jed Babbin on 11.29.10 @ 6:23AM

This may be news to the Obama administration, but there are ways to deter Korea's black hole.

North Korea's shelling of Yeonpyeong Island in the Yellow Sea is the third such incident since last November. Then, the North Koreans exchanged gunfire with South Korean naval forces resulting in two North Korean deaths. The second was North Korea's sinking of the South Korean destroyer Cheonan in March.

As you read this, the USS George Washington and its battle group are conducting exercises with South Korean forces in the southern Yellow Sea, not too far from Yeonpyeong Island. Both North Korea and China have condemned the exercises. China is pushing for a high-level meeting of the parties to the "Six-Party Talks" -- the U.S., Japan, both Koreas, and Russia -- to ease tensions in the area. But those talks are aimed at North Korea's nuclear program and have nothing to do with their attacks in the southern Yellow Sea.

The Yellow Sea is China's Caribbean: it claims a 200-mile exclusive economic zone that almost reaches Yeonpyeong Island, very near the area in which the naval exercises are taking place. China is North Korea's biggest ally and trading partner. We often say that North Korea is under China's control, and that its aggressive acts couldn't be undertaken without Chinese acquiescence or agreement. But it's not at all clear that China -- which clearly has enormous leverage over the impoverished North Koreans -- has that level of day-to-day control of North Korea's acts.

Calling North Korea impoverished is both a great understatement and a misstatement. My favorite picture of the Korean Peninsula was taken by a U.S. spy satellite on one night in early 2006. It shows South Korea ablaze with lights in every city and town. In the North, only the capital of Pyongyang is lit. The rest of the country is pitch black. Most North Koreans live cold, hungry, and in the dark, but their government lives well.

So far, China is apparently trying to calm the situation. While North Korea's press blares more threats, China's Xinhua News Agency is publishing rather bland stories about the incident and the U.S.-South Korea military exercises.

If North Korea wanted war, it could restart the Korean War in a matter of minutes by attacking with missiles or other forces across the demilitarized zone. If it sought only to provoke South Korea and America, it could mount a smaller attack off its east coast.

But the fact that the three incidents in the last year all took place in the Yellow Sea means that the three attacks are meant to draw China in as well. If the Chinese knew of the incidents before they took place and approved North Korea's actions, the Chinese would be extending their protective military umbrella over North Korea's provocations.

So what does North Korea want? And how should we and South Korea respond to its latest act of murderous aggression?

North Korea has accomplished much of what it wanted. It waited eight months after sinking the Cheonan for a response from South Korea, and didn't see one. By the latest attack, North Korea has already brought about the resignation of South Korea's defense minister and may have destabilized the South Korean government. Massive protests in Seoul by South Korean military veterans have demanded a forceful response, and at least one South Korean general has vowed revenge.

South Korea has already had one prime minister fall this year, and the new P.M., Lee Myung-bak, is perched precariously on his seat. And the effects of the latest attack are being felt in Tokyo. Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan has ordered his cabinet to remain in Tokyo for the next several days, anticipating a greater crisis.

What to do?

First, the United States should restore North Korea to its proper place as a nation designated as a state sponsor of terrorism. This would effectively interfere with -- and probably interdict -- most financial transactions with North Korea. Given North Korea's proliferation activities -- including construction of the Syrian nuclear plant that Israeli jets destroyed three years ago -- there's more than enough justification for that action.

The Bush administration lifted the designation as an incentive to North Korea in the Six-Party Talks. But those talks -- like the negotiations we've had with North Korea off and on for about fifteen years -- are an abject failure. There is no agreement we've made -- or will ever make -- with North Korea that they will abide by. Every time we receive their blood oaths to stop nuclear development and proliferation, the North Koreans proceed at full speed doing their best to conceal their actions.

Second, we should reject China's call for urgent consultations of the Six Party Talks participants, instead convening a meeting of a core group of the nations that are a party to the Proliferation Security Initiative. The PSI, begun in 2003, is aimed at enforcement of proliferation bans on nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction. It proved its worth several times, intercepting -- in one case -- the shipment of nuclear materials to Libya, which precipitated Libya's surrender of its nuclear program to the United States. The PSI began with sixteen nations and has grown to ninety, an impossibly unproductive number. Let's start with a small group of six or seven and call it "PSI-Korea."

The PSI-Korea group should be called together to create and implement a plan of action designed for the sole purpose of preventing any further shipment of nuclear or missile materials from North Korea to any nation or group.

Third, and not last in importance, we should urge a regional alliance with Japan and South Korea to help them defend themselves -- and each other -- against further North Korean aggression. This would be a big step for Japan, but a necessary one because a re-armed Japan -- capable of ballistic missile defense and other measures -- would be a necessary predicate to any such agreement. Were Japan to grow in military strength, North Korea would be more effectively contained.

Will the Obama administration do any of this? Almost certainly not. Which will leave North Korea undeterred. It is probably the most dangerously unpredictable country in the world. And its next act of aggression -- and there will be one -- may result in a South Korean response that will kick off the Second Korean War.

About the Author

Jed Babbin served as a Deputy Undersecretary of Defense under George H.W. Bush. He is the author of several bestselling books including Inside the Asylum and In the Words of Our Enemies.

Letter to the Editor View all comments (44) | Leave a comment

East Texas Rancher| 11.29.10 @ 7:03AM

And what if all China wants is to get us entangled in a threat that would cause them to call for war on the U.S.?

Tom| 11.29.10 @ 7:46AM

What purpose would war with the US serve China?

Old Soldier| 11.29.10 @ 8:12AM

Really. China would lose their most lucrative market. And, our first attack would be financial - by refusing to ever repay all the U.S. debt they hold.

Troy| 11.29.10 @ 9:53AM

Just like Germany lost it's biggest trading partner by going to war with France over 70 years ago?

Tom| 11.29.10 @ 10:20AM

France did not have the ability to drop hydrogen bombs on Germany.

Old Soldier| 11.29.10 @ 1:22PM

And the Germans didn't have to cross an ocean against the world's largest Navy to get to France.

SpiralArchitect| 11.29.10 @ 2:34PM

"Just like Germany lost it's biggest trading partner by going to war with France over 70 years ago?"

Germany's goal was geared toward expansion.
Not the best parabel for the China / US war scenario.

Unlikely China aspires toward the conquest of America & her territory.

Forget not, the Korean War is only in 'truce' status...

Thomas| 11.29.10 @ 9:42AM

China, like most nations, is not a business entity. Commerce is merely another battleground to extend the dominance of the State beyond its current borders. It is not interested in making money or selling widgets, it is interested in expanding its dominance, particularly in East Asia. The only real impediment to that expansion is the United States.

Nations are not GM, or IBM, or any other commercial entity. They exist to dominate and control, not to make money. Money is simply a means to an end.

George| 11.29.10 @ 4:55PM

You are correct about China's desire to expand its sphere of influence, but Chinese officials are subject to the desires of other human beings, to live in big houses, drive nice cars and have other material possessions. Ambitions that include perpetual aggression do not fit well into schemes.

Thomas| 11.29.10 @ 10:42PM

Most states do not plan "perpetual" aggression, simply enough aggression to achieve the desires of the leadership.

inge| 11.30.10 @ 12:00AM

It would be simply a powerplay by China; they own us, remember? Besides, the recent missile in California was sent by China; they sent a message to the 'smart power team' in DC, but was ignored. Not a peep, or explanation by our betters, it's definately amateur hour.

PBSD| 11.29.10 @ 3:53PM

China desiring war on the US when we owe them trillions of dollars is akin to blowing up your savings account! There is no sense to that stragety. Better be careful, they might demand all that we owe from the Iraq and Afghanistan wars in which we might have to sell land...ie a state! How about Texas?

Quartermaster| 11.29.10 @ 6:26PM

I'd go for Taxachussetts and San Francisco.

Christopher Holland| 11.30.10 @ 12:45AM

Why would anybody want California? It would be like volunteering to have herpes. The Chinese aren't that stupid.

Ken (Old Texican)| 11.29.10 @ 7:27AM

Jed,
You put your finger on the problem.
There is no WILL in the whitehouse.
My new E-novel www.texassaidno.com addresses the dangers we face from an AWOL CinC.

Write me at sales@texassaidno.com and I will send you a review copy.

Louis Jenkins| 11.29.10 @ 8:14AM

We need not expect anything concrete from the White House. More conferences, meetings, PSIs, whatever. Until South Korea is willing to stand up for itself the free-world certainly won't. Another war with China? It will not be limited this time.

Christopher Holland| 11.30.10 @ 12:50AM

There is no reason for a war. The position of China is quite weak- they have to import a lot of oil and export across the Pacific to a debtor country that has a large navy and and that owes them a lot of money. What happens if America says 'see you later'? The Chinese are not in a good position to throw their weight around because there is a large boot that can rest on their neck. It belongs to America.

GavInTucson| 11.30.10 @ 2:28AM

I wouldn't exactly call the Chinese position weak. Our position is certainly weak, economically. China is now our banker, very much like the United States became Europe's banker, starting with WWI (and we've seen Europe's empires fall during the 20th century).

Make no mistake, China's got us by the short and curlies, economically. The only "boot" we really have is nuclear weapons, and we most certainly won't use those.

Even if we defaulted with China it wouldn't hurt them that much. Europe did much the same in the 20th century with us, and we arose as a superpower because of it (while they fell as an economic power).

We've spent the last 20+ years taxing and regulating business out of our own country and into theirs (with NAFTA claiming first place). We're reaping what we've sown.

Prophet| 11.29.10 @ 8:27AM

What does North Korea want?? South Korea.

Invasion and war are inevitable.

MacDaddy| 11.29.10 @ 8:46AM

What does North Korea want? What China TELLS them to want. Anyone who dismisses the presence of the hand of the Chinese puppet-master up Kim's back is dwelling in the land of denial....China sees a weakened US, both economically and politically. For centuries, they have patiently sought hegemony in Eastern Asia...but four blocks stood in their way. Those blocks were Hong Kong and the British protectorate of same, and Taiwan, Japan and South Korea...all supported by the United States. Hong Kong fell to them 10 years ago. Now they see the opportunity to claim the other three. These activities are nothing less than the Chinese, through their North Korean dupes, probing the seriousness of the U.S. commitment to South Korea. They seek destabilization and weakening of the resolve in both SoKo and the US....and they have achieved it. The Obama administration is collectively peeing in their pants. Next will come increasingly hostile rhetoric directed at Taiwan. Never forget Sun Tsu. The Chinese seek to win the battle without firing a shot. They seek to win by turning allies against each other. They seek to win by outwaiting and outwitting their adversaries. But always, they seek to win....

Ned| 11.29.10 @ 12:28PM

And they are VERY, VERY patient. "Long term" to the US is 8 - 1o years... "long term" to the Chinese is 80 - 100...

GavInTucson| 11.30.10 @ 2:33AM

I fear you're correct. I also fear that the invasion will come from the North, and not the other way around.

A sixty-year score has been largely unsettled, and the communists are busily playing tic-tac-toe on the chalk board.

Deborah D| 11.29.10 @ 8:32AM

Weakness provokes aggression. A weak USA provokes aggression worldwide. A weak South Korea provokes aggression on their doorstep. What's so difficult about what most kids learned in kindergarten -- you have to stand up to bullies or you're going to get bloodied. Start building your nuclear arsenals, South Korea and Japan, you can't count on the US any longer.

WTF| 11.29.10 @ 8:41AM

According to Go Yeong -jae, the South Korean Coast Guard captain who rescued 56 of the Cheonon crew, he "received an order that a naval patrol vessel had run aground in the waters to the southwest of Baenguyyeong Island, and that we were to move there quickly to rescue them."
{The Cheonan was a frigate, not a destroyer.}

There is some doubt that a submarine could even operate in the shallow water there.

davelnaf| 11.29.10 @ 9:16AM

The Choenan was raised from a depth of about 147 feet (45 meters).

davelnaf| 11.29.10 @ 9:02AM

Seoul cannot allow North Korea shell the capital. If another provocation comes it will likely invade the DMZ to capture and push back NK’s forces. The USS Washington group is there to support this move.

NK will lose the war and lose it rather quickly. Will this bring China in? They have an awful lot to lose; beginning with seeing their economy tank in about a month.

And there is the suspicion that China has been using NK as its Pit Bull to help keep the neighbors in line and win a few important concessions here and there. But if war broke out NK would soon be making frantic calls for China to come to its aid. Something in these messages might suggest linkage between them to aid and abet NKs activities in the last few decades. Does China really want this dirt to come to light, especially in the aftermath of a war that could cost possibly tens of thousands of lives?

dac| 11.29.10 @ 10:59AM

Do you seriously think that when (not if) the Norks threaten Seoul with a nuclear missile attack, our very own dear Il Duce Negro will order the GW carrier group to do anything other than stand down and wait for orders from Beijing? I'd love to sample whatever it is you're drinking.
Unlike the S. Koreans and this American administration, the Norks the Chinese are willing to kill millions of people who mean nothing to them, but whose deaths would advance their long term goals. China would become the unquestioned ruler of its own "Greater East-Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere," and Japan and S Korea would become vassal states to it. Over the long term, of course. Why not test the only other power in the Pacific that might be interested in a different outcome? Why not now, when that power is least likely to be used. Note that the GW carrier group is staying well outside the claimed 200 mile EEZ...an obvious sign that the US will do nothing.
The only bonus for America is that when the Norks pop off, it will expose in bloody terms the complete failure of Il Duce's and Hilary's State Dept foreign policy. Neither of them will look too clever with half of Seoul in smoking, radioactive ruins.

George | 11.29.10 @ 5:01PM

I doubt that the RoK would cross the DMZ, but I suspect that an artillery exchange would be possible. The DMZ is a mess of mines and traps that would make such a venture very costly. If anyone is prepared to cross the DMZ it would be the DPRK.

Paul| 11.29.10 @ 10:59AM

Mr. Babbin, Lee Myung Bak is South Korea's president, not prime minister. Please do your homework.

Al Abad| 11.29.10 @ 12:13PM

North Korea is just playing their extortion game once again. Just as they did in the 90's under Clinton (when he bought them off by giving the reactors- real smart) they look to a weak White House to pay some blackmail to their advantage. Obviously this is once again the course this President will follow. Although, the possibility that he is so inept as to cause dangerous miscalculations (ala August 1914) remains.

Yosemeti Sam| 11.29.10 @ 12:53PM

Don't you just - love it:

SOS Clinton:

Erstwhile studious insider observer of Bubbas' then SOS Albrights' successful negotiation skills/waltzs/drinks with shortie Stalin II.

Now as emulative SOS practitioner in her own right in the high art of baloney diplomacy with shortie Stalin II.

LOL.

WTF| 11.29.10 @ 12:59PM

davelnaf, the depth that the Cheonan was raised from doesn't tell me anything definitive. We're not dealing with a swimming pool here.

James A.| 11.29.10 @ 1:26PM

Oh I am so tired of hearing from the nuclear weapons whiners. A tactical nuke is nothing more than a tactical nuke. If you want to end the nuclear extortion from North Korea is to transfer about 25 tactical nukes and their delivery systems into South Korea's Military. Nothing more than a 15 to 30 kiloton warheads. You then have mutual asure destruction. If the north uses nukes, the south responds and vise versa. then you encourage and help South Korea and Japan start their own nuclear weapons programs. You will be amazed how quickly China sees it our way on North Korea knowing they will have 2 other Nuclear armed states on their borders other than us. I am sorry say what you will. A fully armed Rifle is the best negotiator than any other silly diplomat any day of the week.

YeloStalyn| 11.29.10 @ 5:46PM

While true, the diplomatic strains this would cause us even among our allies would be great. Not sure if we have enough political capital to pull this off, much less political will. What once was a great American heritage, self reliance against an oppressor, has led us to try and keep other peoples from having to fight their own wars. We fought our own king. How many Mexicans fight their own drug cartels and corrupt government? How many N. Koreans fight against their corrupt government? Bay of Pigs and the Iraqi Kurds stand as a great big neon sign in history saying, "We will let you down!" when people try to be self-reliant. And it is this self-reliance that is the best deterrent to bullies... the "fully armed rifle."

Steve in SoCal| 11.29.10 @ 3:35PM

This incident is really about 2 things. First, it is a yell for help from NK. The population is on it's consistent principle of Darwinism thru starvation. It serves the NK media (redundant) a chance to publish how the dear leader is still wary of his fellow NK as he grows older. Instills a sense of nationalism within the state at the express need to take the population's hunger pains off their minds. Being in the northern hemisphere, NK has not heating oil, it has no food due to it's policies and a horrible summer drought in the region.

Second, it serves as two point offensive within the NK military. The orders are given and the new young son dear leader sees who he can count on in combination of a "warning" to outside countries that you know what? "this guy just might be crazy enough to start another war."

From the NK perspective, they provoke a strong response that included military. So what if several hundred thousand people die. They are going to die anyways from starvation. They pile up the bodies somewhere (even though great care was taken to avoid civilian casualties and only infrastructure was destroyed), they go the Palistinean route in front of the world and create some UN condemnations. The general populace of NK becomes even more nationalist.

What to do? Like the article states, put them on the terrorism list, ban all trade, have SK/Japan not trade with them. Tell the Chinese, hey, they're your problem now. Use some of that trade surplus to turn on the lights and feed the NK.

You're not going to go into NK militarily and succeed in getting the population to help you. Even people who had escaped and began to become westernized wept when the older leader died. Even knowing what a miserable bastard he was. The revelation of the new atomic stuff was part of the succession for the youngest Kim, in a way to show the military that even though they had "bargained" away previous atomic efforts for food, he had helped "defend" the nation thru this action.

The bottom line is until we tell China to piss off and take care of this problem called NK, nothing will get done. Can you imagine the prospect of hundreds of thousands of NK streaming the border into China? The Chinese already have a couple of thousand years phobia of outsiders running into their country. This is really the only carrot the US/SK/Jap has to play.

PBSD| 11.29.10 @ 3:49PM

The DPRK never agreed to the DMZ line established by South Korea and regards South Korea's war games as a violation of their territory. China would like to have 6 pack peace conference; however, with the Americans now in the Yellow Sea, the DPRK has withdrawn from the peace conference in China.

MacDaddy| 11.29.10 @ 3:50PM

I forgot to add that Japan is fading economically, so that even it the US told them to start an army, they wouldn't because they can't support it financially....so, in this particular eco-politic & military chess match, the US is outmatched.

Look for the western pacific to become a Chinese lake by, oh, 2022 or so....

Negro X| 11.29.10 @ 4:52PM

Mcmoron, Japan already has a standing army you ididot.

otak tengah| 11.29.10 @ 5:33PM

I never understood north korea, even with their brother they did not get along, what a ......

Perusha The Offender| 11.29.10 @ 6:18PM

Soon enough a human-caused crisis will break out, and affect America so much that the sleeping sheep in this country will have to awaken from their fat slumber.

Maybe North Korea will be the trigger.

As I picture the earth, there are so many smoldering "hot spots" that regularly compete for our media attention, that insousciance about how it will all work out sure seems to me to be misplaced---CONCRETELY!

The longer I stay alive, the more human events seem to portray reincarnation in action!

That is, "there's NOTHING new under the sun", in truth, since every generation of the human race spits up forgetfull "types", who invariably make the same old same old mistakes, again.

Wasn't it the Greeks who determined that there were only X number of plots for a play?

I used to spent time earning $$$ as a sub. One of the most rewarding and edifying experiences was to show the same movie to different classes.

In one driver's ed class, the flick had a joke in it, so I could watch the CLASS when it came up, and see their knee-jerk reaction---and, like well trained puppies, most of them did indeed laugh.

However, the best of all time, for me, involved a PC movie about South Africa and aparteid.

The hero, a black African male, was, at one point , as a prisoner, made to eat some human excrement!

It was so realistic, even for me, that it tended to make me sick. But, seeing the high schoolers physically revolt at this scene was hot stuff!

Sometimes, it seems to me that much the same kind of trip is appearing in our human "movie", since there sure is a lot of CRAP everywhere.

So many types of DUNG, in competition for our attention!

Also, there are NO ACCIDENTS, absolutely.

Choices are the name of the game, whether one is conscious of making them or not.

Therefore, utter responsibility, taken to infinity and to all time, demands that we each realize that this human excrement "play" we smell and see too much of, is totally OUR doing.

A Buddha was wandering around England with a friend, and asked a ntive how to get to London. The fellow said, "You can't get there from here".

Just so.

How can you "get to" somewhere, besides where you are at?

Bohdhisattva and a devotee came upon a leper. The Enlightened One pointed at the "poor man", and said, "He loves it!"

Huang Po and a devotee were outside. Some birds were flying by.

Huang po asked, "Where are they going?"

The devotee said, "They've already flown away".

Humang po grabbed his nose, and asked, "How could they ever fly away?"

Richard| 11.29.10 @ 10:00PM

Just because U.S. governemnt wants larger influence and interests in Asia, it sends troops, money, unstable and disasters to Asia. F**k the hell U.S. government, all it cares about is just its interests in Asia (meanwhile, it also protends to be a nice peace-keeping angel sent by God!) What a hypocritical government.

Hans| 11.29.10 @ 10:08PM

I totally agree. However, it is about huge amout of money, strategic influence, and the constraint of China; do you really think American Government will care how many people die in (South or North) Korea. It is about egoism, double-standard, and politics!

Jack| 12.5.10 @ 3:10PM

We should do: nothing.

Why?

The North Korean government promised its citizens an improved standard of living by 2010. It has never done this before, and it has failed miserably. North Korea now desperately needs an excuse to explain this latest failure.

If we do nothing, North Korea will not have its excuse, its citizens will lose all faith and hope, and the entire country will implode.

The West took Eastern Europe without firing a shot; The West can do the same with North Korea, too.