After mostly lying dormant for two elections cycle, will the
culture wars make a comeback in 2012? There’s a more than even
chance of it.
One reason is that marriage amendments will be on the
ballot in at least a handful of states that have stonewalled the
issue for years. That’s due to historic Republican gains in
governorships and state legislatures around the country, often in
areas where the GOP hasn’t held the reins of power in decades, even
centuries.
Look for Republicans to push for marriage amendments in
Indiana, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Minnesota following
significant gains in each state’s legislature. In Iowa and New
Hampshire, where homosexual marriage is legally recognized,
straight-up marriage amendments are less probable. But
GOP gains there could be a harbinger of a future reversal of
same-sex marriage in both states.
In my home state of North Carolina, a marriage amendment
would have passed years ago had it not been for the state’s (now
deposed) Democratic leadership, which wouldn’t allow the bills out
of committee. As in most states, a clear majority of Tar Heel
voters support an amendment, and even many Democrats in the
legislature signed on as co-sponsors of the bill in past
sessions.
But there are political implications. Having the amendment
on the ballot during an election year — particularly a
presidential one — generates greater turnout in the Republican
base. In conservative-leaning states like Indiana and North
Carolina, that factor plays a major role.
Also significant in Indiana will be how Republican Gov.
Mitch Daniels approaches the issue. Republicans re-captured control
of the Indiana House on November 2, and a marriage amendment could
be in the mix. Will Daniels, famous for his
call for a “truce” on hot-button social issues, back that
effort?
As if to deliver a subtle blow to Daniels’ coyness on
cultural concerns, voters in Iowa showed that America’s fiscal woes
haven’t diverted attention entirely from moral issues. They
threw out three state Supreme Court justices who voted to
legalize same-sex marriage in 2009. To date, 30 states have
adopted
marriage amendments, compared to five that have legalized it either
through legislation or judicial fiat. Here’s the part the
Republican establishment paradoxically relishes and loathes: social
issues could significantly boost the GOP’s presidential chances in
2012, as it did in 2004 and 2008. Six years ago, it significantly
contributed to George W. Bush’s re-election. Two years ago, John
McCain would’ve lost by an even greater margin if marriage
amendments hadn’t been on the ballot.
The establishment relishes the reenergizing of the
controversy it because it augments their chances of gaining power.
But they loathe it because they’ve always loathed traditional
conservatives, just like they loathe members of the Tea Party (and
they doubly loathe the fact that the two groups mostly
overlap).
Electoral history bears out the benefits that marriage
amendments bring to GOP candidates. In both pro- and anti-GOP
years, marriage amendments have fared better than moderate
Republicans — who, according to conventional wisdom, appeal to
independents more readily and are more electable.
In 2008, moderate Republican poster boy John McCain lost
California and Florida hands-down, but voters in both states still
passed marriage amendments handily. In 2004 and 2006, scores of
Republicans (both moderate and conservative) benefited from
marriage amendments on the ballot. The issue doesn’t hamper GOP
candidates.
Abortion also is likely to emerge in the new session of
Congress. Unlike the marriage issue, abortion has remained on
conservatives’ radar during the first two years of the Obama
administration due to health care reform’s expansion of
taxpayer-subsidized abortion. The freshman class of the new House
has been dubbed
“the most pro-life” ever.
The sea change in state legislatures will likely result in
action on abortion, too, even if the federal government does
nothing. Republicans will push more state-level restrictions, such
as parental notification laws or requiring abortionists to offer an
ultrasound prior to the procedure.
Regardless, social issues will play a larger role in the
2012 election than they did this year, even if the economy worsens.
The presence of marriage amendments on state ballots will make sure
of it. At the federal level, the debate over abortion funding in
ObamaCare will also reinvigorate pro-lifers.
Whether politicos like it or not, the culture wars aren’t
fading away.
