The most accurate prognostication of the 2010 Catholic vote was
made months ago when Rep. Bart Stupak (D, MI-01) decided not to run
for reelection. Stupak, a “pro-life” Catholic, was the leader of a
small hold-out group of House Democrats, also mostly Catholic,
refusing to vote for a health care bill that included federal
funding for abortion.
Stupak’s sudden change of mind on
May 21, without any concurrent changes to the
health care bill, led to the passage of the health care legislation
when his fellow hold-outs caved with him.
A veritable tsunami of pro-life outrage among Catholics
ensued, in spite of attempts of White House shills like Sr. Carol
Keehan, president of the Catholic Health Association, to dispute
the statements
of the Catholic bishops about the presence of abortion funding in
the health care legislation.
This outrage was apparent on November 2 when eight members
of Stupak’s coalition were defeated. They included Catholic Rep.
Steve Driehaus (D, OH-01), who brought a case to the Ohio Elections
Commission, arguing the Susan B. Anthony List had misrepresented
his vote on the health care bill. Other Catholics, Reps. Kathy
Dahlkemper (D, PA-03), Charlie Wilson (D, OH-06), Chris Carney (D,
PA-10), Paul Kanjorski (D, PA-11), Baron Hill (D, IN-09), and Brad
Ellsworth (D, IN-08), who ran for the Senate, made pro-life claims
a prominent campaign theme, and were also rejected by the
voters.
Pushed, in part, by concern about the health care bill,
Catholic voters across the nation returned to the GOP in numbers
resembling the presidential victory of George W. Bush in 2004. CNN
exit
polls record 55 percent of Catholics voted for the GOP
while
AP polling showed a whopping 58 percent, a twenty
point increase since 2008. Either way, the 2008 Catholic support
for Obama has completely reversed itself, perhaps with a
vengeance.
In all, over 17 pro-life Catholics will be added to the
Congress, while roughly 26 pro-abortion Catholics will be
departing.
The heart of the Catholic vote belongs to voters who
attend Mass regularly. Parse out these active Catholic voters from
less active Catholics, and the results have consistently shown more
support for socially conservative and Republican candidates. When I
led Catholic outreach for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, we based
our outreach on a comprehensive
study that pointed repeatedly to the importance of
making this distinction.
Those who argue there is no Catholic vote usually ignore
this distinction, as did Jody Bottum, former editor of
First Things, in his
recent article at the Weekly
Standard.
The exit polling did not contain a question for
religiously-active Catholics as a separate group, as is done in
presidential elections. But CNN did find that religiously active
voters, in general, supported the GOP 59 percent to 40 percent.
Thus, there is good reason to infer that active Catholic voters
were a driving force behind the Catholic move back to the GOP, as
they have been in previous swings since the late '60s.
Consider the additional evidence:
In the Illinois
Senate race for Obama’s former seat, according to CNN,
Catholics voted an amazing 56 percent for the GOP candidate and 39
percent for the Democrat. White Catholics voted at a 70 percent
level, which means blue collar Catholics deserted the Democratic
Party. That’s in a state whose parishes have been deeply influenced
by the Archdiocese of Chicago, where Cardinal Bernardin, author of
the “seamless garment,” was bishop for fourteen years.
In another heavily Catholic state, Wisconsin,
Catholics voted 53 percent to 47 percent for the Republican Senate
candidate, Ron Johnson, to defeat incumbent Russ Feingold. In
Pennsylvania,
pro-life Catholic Pat Toomey defeated a Catholic who voted for
Obamacare, Rep. Joe Sestak. PA Catholic voters favored Toomey 51
percent to 49 percent. Along with Toomey, the election of Catholic
Marco Rubio to a Florida Senate seat means that body will have two
dynamic pro-life voices to replace Sen. Sam Brownback, who was
elected Governor of Kansas in a landslide victory.
The darling of the Catholic Left since 2008 has been Rep.
Tom Perriello (D, VA-05). Touted by fake Catholic groups like
Catholics United and Catholics in Alliance, Perriello was the
epitome of the “social justice” Democrat and described as pro-life
in spite of his consistent support of abortion and the health care
bill. Perriello was defeated
by pro-life Presbyterian, state senator Robert Hurt, in spite of
Obama’s personal trips to Charlottesville.
Perhaps the biggest news of all for Catholics on election
night was the emergence of a pro-life Catholic Speaker of the
House, Cong. John Boehner (R, OH-08) to replace Nancy Pelosi, a
pro-abortion Catholic. With Boehner at the helm, Catholics can be
assured that a real fight will be underway for ridding our nation
of federally funded abortions.
Catholic voters will never be a voting block, but they
will respond in large and politically significant numbers to
candidates on the basis of their Catholic values and world view.
What does that mean for the 2012 presidential race? The magnitude
of the mid-term swing of Catholic voters we just witnessed
translates to 7 million of the 30 million Catholic voters who the
GOP needs to keep or the Democrats need to win back by
2012.
