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Special Report
The Return of the Catholic Vote
Pro-lifers win big — except those who voted for Obamacare.
The most accurate prognostication of the 2010 Catholic vote was made months ago when Rep. Bart Stupak (D, MI-01) decided not to run for reelection. Stupak, a “pro-life” Catholic, was the leader of a small hold-out group of House Democrats, also mostly Catholic, refusing to vote for a health care bill that included federal funding for abortion.
Stupak’s sudden change of mind on May 21, without any concurrent changes to the health care bill, led to the passage of the health care legislation when his fellow hold-outs caved with him.
A veritable tsunami of pro-life outrage among Catholics ensued, in spite of attempts of White House shills like Sr. Carol Keehan, president of the Catholic Health Association, to dispute the statements of the Catholic bishops about the presence of abortion funding in the health care legislation.
This outrage was apparent on November 2 when eight members of Stupak’s coalition were defeated. They included Catholic Rep. Steve Driehaus (D, OH-01), who brought a case to the Ohio Elections Commission, arguing the Susan B. Anthony List had misrepresented his vote on the health care bill. Other Catholics, Reps. Kathy Dahlkemper (D, PA-03), Charlie Wilson (D, OH-06), Chris Carney (D, PA-10), Paul Kanjorski (D, PA-11), Baron Hill (D, IN-09), and Brad Ellsworth (D, IN-08), who ran for the Senate, made pro-life claims a prominent campaign theme, and were also rejected by the voters.
Pushed, in part, by concern about the health care bill, Catholic voters across the nation returned to the GOP in numbers resembling the presidential victory of George W. Bush in 2004. CNN exit polls record 55 percent of Catholics voted for the GOP while AP polling showed a whopping 58 percent, a twenty point increase since 2008. Either way, the 2008 Catholic support for Obama has completely reversed itself, perhaps with a vengeance.
In all, over 17 pro-life Catholics will be added to the Congress, while roughly 26 pro-abortion Catholics will be departing.
The heart of the Catholic vote belongs to voters who attend Mass regularly. Parse out these active Catholic voters from less active Catholics, and the results have consistently shown more support for socially conservative and Republican candidates. When I led Catholic outreach for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, we based our outreach on a comprehensive study that pointed repeatedly to the importance of making this distinction.
Those who argue there is no Catholic vote usually ignore this distinction, as did Jody Bottum, former editor of First Things, in his recent article at the Weekly Standard.
The exit polling did not contain a question for religiously-active Catholics as a separate group, as is done in presidential elections. But CNN did find that religiously active voters, in general, supported the GOP 59 percent to 40 percent. Thus, there is good reason to infer that active Catholic voters were a driving force behind the Catholic move back to the GOP, as they have been in previous swings since the late '60s.
Consider the additional evidence:
In the Illinois Senate race for Obama’s former seat, according to CNN, Catholics voted an amazing 56 percent for the GOP candidate and 39 percent for the Democrat. White Catholics voted at a 70 percent level, which means blue collar Catholics deserted the Democratic Party. That’s in a state whose parishes have been deeply influenced by the Archdiocese of Chicago, where Cardinal Bernardin, author of the “seamless garment,” was bishop for fourteen years.
In another heavily Catholic state, Wisconsin, Catholics voted 53 percent to 47 percent for the Republican Senate candidate, Ron Johnson, to defeat incumbent Russ Feingold. In Pennsylvania, pro-life Catholic Pat Toomey defeated a Catholic who voted for Obamacare, Rep. Joe Sestak. PA Catholic voters favored Toomey 51 percent to 49 percent. Along with Toomey, the election of Catholic Marco Rubio to a Florida Senate seat means that body will have two dynamic pro-life voices to replace Sen. Sam Brownback, who was elected Governor of Kansas in a landslide victory.
The darling of the Catholic Left since 2008 has been Rep. Tom Perriello (D, VA-05). Touted by fake Catholic groups like Catholics United and Catholics in Alliance, Perriello was the epitome of the “social justice” Democrat and described as pro-life in spite of his consistent support of abortion and the health care bill. Perriello was defeated by pro-life Presbyterian, state senator Robert Hurt, in spite of Obama’s personal trips to Charlottesville.
Perhaps the biggest news of all for Catholics on election night was the emergence of a pro-life Catholic Speaker of the House, Cong. John Boehner (R, OH-08) to replace Nancy Pelosi, a pro-abortion Catholic. With Boehner at the helm, Catholics can be assured that a real fight will be underway for ridding our nation of federally funded abortions.
Catholic voters will never be a voting block, but they will respond in large and politically significant numbers to candidates on the basis of their Catholic values and world view. What does that mean for the 2012 presidential race? The magnitude of the mid-term swing of Catholic voters we just witnessed translates to 7 million of the 30 million Catholic voters who the GOP needs to keep or the Democrats need to win back by 2012.
About the Author
Deal W. Hudson was chair of RNC Catholic Outreach and is the author of Onward Christian Soldiers: The Growing Political Power of Catholics and Evangelicals in the United States (Threshold). He is president of Catholic Advocate in Washington, D.C.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (44) | Leave a comment
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Connie| 11.4.10 @ 6:47AM
Wonderful article. My husband and I have been totally disgusted with the Catholics who voted for Obama. We have relatives who think of themselves as very "good, faithful Catholics" who vote Democrat every election no matter the beliefs of the candidate. We do not understand how they can have justify their thinking. It is about time the Catholics in Minnesota start following the beliefs of the Church and vote for the pro-life candidate.
T H Huxley| 11.5.10 @ 8:11PM
You're disgusted with all of the Catholics who voted for Obama? Given all of the pedophilia committed by and covered up by your leaders, I'm disgusted by anyone who's still a Catholic.
Felix| 11.5.10 @ 8:40PM
The incidence of abnormal behavior by Catholic clergy is FAR LESS than that of the general population and mostly occurred in the free-wheeling 60's. It was the same liberal elements that unfortunately still infect the Church today. Other institutions, including other churches have a far higher incidence of abnormal behavior. From 1991 to 2000, there were 300,000 REPORTED cased of pedophilia in public schools. Yet it's never reported as the scandal that rocked the public schools.
T H Huxley| 11.6.10 @ 12:39AM
Wow! In the 60's, I was a child in the Midwest. I don't know where you're from, but things were not that "free-wheeling" where I was. If I had been molested, my father would have beaten the guy senseless, priest or not. My main problem is that the church hierarchy shunted the pedophiles from one parish to another, rather than defrocking them and handing them over to the police. Just to do my homework, I read the John Jay Report, which substantiated that at least 4% of the priests were pedophiles. There could have been more cases, but some of the cases were so old it was hard to get any resolution. And according to that report, the pedophilia peaked in the 70's.
Felix| 11.6.10 @ 11:16AM
Unfortunately, they did what the liberal phsychobabble said to do at the time. At the time everyone was following this advice. Church leadership got burned by listening to liberal elements and should have been more discerning. Today, they will not admit anyone with strong homosexual tendencies.
HMS| 11.6.10 @ 3:17PM
Sorry! The truth is that the bishops (shepherds?) were protecting the church from "scandal" and not protecting the children from abuse.
T H Huxley| 11.6.10 @ 7:53PM
I have never met a "liberal" who would tolerate child abuse. As for science, I have no studies, but it seems like the most talented generally go into something quantitative like astrophysics, and the least talented end up in fields like psychology. Some psychologists still revere Sigmund Freud. It has been proven that Freud invented data, which is fraudulent, and that he used a technique called introspection, which is ridiculous. I think lots of scientists scratch their heads and wonder why psychologists are taken seriously. Unfortunately, with some sectors of the public, psychologists are often the “scientists” with the highest profile. I imagine one reason is that it’s one of the easiest branches of “science” to understand. If you take an introductory course in general relativity, you have lots of work ahead of you; but psychology is relatively easy for much of the public to understand. A psychologist might protest and say they use sophisticated statistics, but to compare their accomplishments to something like physics would be laughable.
One last point. A man who molests a girl is a pedophile, not a heterosexual. A male homosexual does not molest boys. Pedophiles molest boys.
Simon Templar| 11.7.10 @ 11:54AM
A male homosexual does not molest boys?
The fact is sexual abuse of boys by adult men is many times more common than consensual sex between adult men, and most of those engaging in such molestation identify themselves as homosexual or bisexual. This is based on a ton of recent research that apparently you were not aware of....
T H Huxley| 11.7.10 @ 5:43PM
There's a ton of research. I took a look at some of it, and none of it supports your assertion. I looked at the web site:
http://psychology.ucdavis.edu/.....ation.html
One study draws the following conclusion:
Using the fixated-regressed distinction, Groth and Birnbaum (1978) studied 175 adult males who were convicted in Massachusetts of sexual assault against a child. None of the men had an exclusively homosexual adult sexual orientation. 83 (47%) were classified as "fixated;" 70 others (40%) were classified as regressed adult heterosexuals; the remaining 22 (13%) were classified as regressed adult bisexuals. Of the last group, Groth and Birnbaum observed that "in their adult relationships they engaged in sex on occasion with men as well as with women. However, in no case did this attraction to men exceed their preference for women....There were no men who were primarily sexually attracted to other adult males..." (p.180).
Sara| 11.8.10 @ 7:42AM
You had to go back to 1978 to find a study (with a small sample set of 175 individuals) that relied upon the honesty of convicted child molesters to support your opinions. How many among the 175 were priests? How many are in denial about their sexual preferences? Surely all are sexually confused and psychotic and therefore not really reliable in describing themselves.
Don't kid yourself. Men who molest boys want male sexual partners, especially those who are weaker and more vulnerable.
There is no excuse for sexual molestation anywhere, especially in the church. Please note that the number of such incidents plummeted once the church began to refuse homosexuals admittance into the priesthood.
There is no such thing as a priest who is a child molester, though there have been molesters posing as priests— and school teachers, Boy Scout leaders, Protestant music ministers, friendly next-door neighbors, etc. And none of the crimes they committed should reflect on the thousands of dedicated priests doing good in the world everyday.
T H Huxley| 11.8.10 @ 11:41AM
I was told there was tons of research, so I took a look at it. You can find more recent studies at the web site I referenced. I posted the conclusions of one of the simpler studies. You should be skeptical of any single study, but many studies at that web site reached similar conclusions. If you want to refute what I've posted, you should cite a study, since many are alleged to exist. If you cite it, I will read it.
As far as the priests are concerned, you're really doing some verbal gymnastics. The men in the Catholic church who committed pedophilia were ordained, which makes them priests until they're defrocked. I have NOT called all priests pedophiles, and I believe that the Catholic church does some good work. I would agree that there are pedophiles lurking in other organizations. If the Catholic church had been proactive in identifying, defrocking, and prosecuting the pedophiles, I would not have a problem with them today. If all of the church hierarchy who had a part in covering it up were sitting in jail right now, I would have commended the Catholic church for putting their interests aside and putting the children first.
kathy| 11.11.10 @ 7:01PM
A comment based on experience:I have worked in the psychiatric field for many years, through the 70's, 80's and on....several years in a unit that had a specialized team for homosexual men where their behavior and histories were closely assessed.....the number of homosexual men who see it as their "right " to have sex with a teen/child that they seduce or perceive as a "willing" participant is overwhelming...the majority do not believe that it is ANYBODY'S business....that sex between men/child/teen is fine...most of them have been seduced as children themselves and the continue the pattern....the number of homosexual men who seek out lonely, confused chilren as victims is overwhelming....these people do not think clearly and really only care about their own needs and wants...the church was naive, stupid, irresponsible, and believed that "prayer and repentance" would help them stop...what a joke, homosexual behavior like a pedophile is a sexual addiction, that continues regardless of the consequences.....yes, the mantra of the times was a factor in how these things were handled.....yes, psychobabble...
Their is no excuse for any church, organization or school to not deal with this behavior. I have had to administratively deal with homosexual men working on adolescent units trying to seduce teenagers...for me that was the end of my compassion for those who believe they have a "right" to do as they please...
The general population is feed alot of distorded falsehoods about this addictive behavior, and the desire to portray it as normal...
T H Huxley| 11.11.10 @ 10:03PM
I'm glad someone is admitting culpability on the part of the Catholic Church. As far as the psychologists are concerned, if there were laws on the books (it's hard to imagine there weren't), and if some psychologists were aware of the pedophilia and helped cover it up, I'd charge them with conspiracy to cover up a crime, at the very least, and throw them in jail too.
If by "psychobabble" you mean a low standard for scholarship, I'd agree with that. Psychology wasn't a science when Freud was practicing, and I don't know if it ever evolved into a science. Also, there's lots of "pop" psychologist who have no academic credentials and seem to say what ever it takes to sell books.
I would call anyone who molests a child a pedophile. If a man molests a girl, I wouldn't call him a heterosexual; if a man molests a boy, I wouldn't call him a homosexual. They're all just pedophiles to me.
Jeff| 11.7.10 @ 8:51PM
IF the republicans had, in the 37 years since Roe, kept their promise to end abortion, you would have a complaint. The moralistic (political) arguments of some in the clergy are completely undermined by the fact that Republicans gave us Roe in the first place, then presided over 65% of the abortions since. Consider that many pro-life Catholics view those empty promises for what they are, political gimmickry. Mr Bush basically drive some Catholic votes to the Obama camp when he stated that Americans were not ready to overturn Roe. His wife later stated that she is pro-choice. Add to that the other moral issues clearly outlined in Evangelium Vitae such as war and social issues and it should be clear that republicans have been killing innocent people in the ME and your camp has supported that activity. Some bishops disagreed with John Paul II's declaration that war is a crime against God. They are wrong. You are no more in the right than pro-life Catholics who voted for Obama-not because he is pro choice, rather because they realized after years of propaganda that the republicans have been lying all along.
Appleby| 11.4.10 @ 7:02AM
Ditto! Now if we can start putting pressure on our Bishops and priests to start denying the Eucharist to high-profile *Catholics* who do not support and follow the tenets of the Catholic church, and that includes those divorced and who are or have mistresses, rather than focusing on people who pretend they can call themselves Catholic and do as they please, perhaps this will get the attention of the people in the pews and although we may have a smaller number of Catholics, they will BE Catholics. And this may be an example to Protestants to clean up their act, too.
The Sixties Are Officially Over. Void in California, of course.
Jeff| 11.7.10 @ 8:55PM
When you make judgments, as we all do unfortunately, you bring judgment down on your own head. Don't be like the pharisee who prayed that he was grateful not to be like all of the sinners around him, simply ask God for mercy, on yourself and your brethren.
Tim*| 11.4.10 @ 7:23AM
"Hearing nuns' confessions is like being stoned to death with popcorn."
Fulton J. Sheen
c. j. acworth| 11.4.10 @ 7:31AM
via. Appleby: ...an example to Protestants to clean up their act, too.
Which Protestants? As I drive home from the (evangelical) Protestant church I attend I can always tell when I am getting close to one of the many Mainline churches in town. The on-street parking spaces are full of Volvos, Prius's etc. all with fading, peeling KerryEdwards stickers or the slightly less worn Obama types. Protestant churches are generally independent of central authority, and where not, the authority is in the grasp of liberalism. Mainliners who are fed up with the pseudo-gospel they hear in their own churches will often give up on them and come to an evangelical congregation. The Mainlines are dead, their concionces "seared as with a hot iron."
Petronius| 11.4.10 @ 8:06AM
Now if the average Catholic was economically literate and understood markets and the true meaning of the 10th Commandment, we might have avoided this situation.
PJ| 11.4.10 @ 10:50AM
Quite frankly if the sanctity of life is respected then all the other 9 commandments will naturally be obeyed, although some easier than others.
Tim*| 11.4.10 @ 11:40AM
Tell us all you know about QE2, Petty.
Say Hi to Big Pliny
Mike from Florida| 11.4.10 @ 8:21AM
There's no such thing as a "pro-life" Democrat.
DaveS| 11.4.10 @ 3:07PM
Stupak, et al, proved that. An oxymoron title if ever there was one. Kind of like a positive negative.
Maudie N Mandeville| 11.4.10 @ 8:54PM
"Pro-Life" (until it counts)
Doctor Right| 11.4.10 @ 9:01AM
This is WONDERFUL news!
It's about time that American Catholics got back on-board with the Pro-Life agenda that they actually started, and realized that there is NO SUCH THING as a pro-abortion Catholic.
BRAVO!
MOS was 71331| 11.4.10 @ 11:15AM
Repeat that again: "There is NO SUCH THING as a pro-abortion Catholic."
I don't care what religion you claim to believe in when you talk to the census takers.
OtterMommy| 11.9.10 @ 1:25PM
Reminds me of what a good Jewish friend said once: Being a pro-choice Catholic is much like having kosher pork.
Sandy| 11.4.10 @ 9:08AM
This article would not have been complete without mentioning Tom Perriello, and his "fake" Catholic groups. Perriello cut his teeth on politics at the side of George Soros, in NY, whose funding started the fake Catholic groups listed in the article, where Perriello is listed as the founder of both. That is another attempted takeover of yet another institution by Soros. Soros knew that Catholics were pro-life and would not vote for Democrats that supported abortion, so he set these groups up to give cover, and propagandize, to those feeling any guilt for voting for someone not representing their religious beliefs. Perriello's argument has been, abortions happen because of poverty, and if we make everyone economically "equal", the incidence of abortion would decrease, and, that includes those that cross our "open borders."
Derek Leaberry| 11.4.10 @ 9:19AM
The older liberal Catholic Democrats, most of whom rarely go to Mass, are dying out and their children are dropping out of the Church. Orthodox Catholicism is growing, including advocates of the Latin Mass. Conservative Catholicism is the future of Catholicism.
Darragh| 11.4.10 @ 4:44PM
The media never seems to mention this, but although abortion and euthanasia (which I see looming as the "kind" solution) are the main issues for me as a practicing Catholic, the fact that Obama has appointed people who openly display hatred of the Church (Keith Jennings, Harry Owen and others), his seeming refusal to celebrate Christian holidays, his omission of "God" when referring to our founding documents, his support for gay marriage (I think he's just waiting for the right time) and the extreme anti Catholicism of media "outlets" like the NYT (which thankfully I have finally weaned myself from) have played into my voting. For the first time in my life, I voted straight R this year.
Also, I totally agree about the generational shift. I recently attended a retreat run by a baby boomer priest where he said: a. that the current economic downtown was best for the country and b. that it would be good for the Church to fall so it could be reinvented! I'm sick of this kind of thinking.
Don L| 11.5.10 @ 2:55PM
Nancy Pelosi, a pro-abortion Catholic.
Oxymoron indeed.
I suspect dear Nancy -that they were just voting their consciences -just as you taught them to do!
RooForLife | 11.5.10 @ 4:44PM
Ramesh Ponnuru has a book called "The Party of Death The Democrats, the Media, the Courts and the Disregard for Human Life"
I agree with Mr Ponnuru, Democrat is the Party of Death
Felix| 11.5.10 @ 8:45PM
Abortion is the greatest evil of all time. It has killed more people (43,000,000 per year) than perhaps an all out nuclear was would cause. If anyone believes that this great evil can be overlooked due to other more pressing issues, they are incredibly deceived. If a person is so deceived by this evil, then that person can be trusted with nothing else. Everything they say should be seen as deception. It's too bad the likes of Sr. Keehan can't understand this.
Jeff| 11.7.10 @ 10:04PM
Felix, abortion IS the greatest evil. And there are many ways to attack it. Yours is not the only way so that means, you are only part right. Come down off your pedestal and understand you are part of a mosaic and do not have all the answers. Other people in the mosaic may not be as deceived as you claim and may be working as hard or harder than you to overcome the evil.
Anthony| 11.5.10 @ 8:48PM
Of course it is impossible for any believing Catholic to ever vote for a democrat, it is impossible for any believing Christian to vote for a democrat. The democrat party as it stands today opposes Christianity in everything. I realize it's preaching to the choir here, but it needs to be repeated over and over again, pro-abortion, pro-homosexual. pro-socialism is anti-Christian and the democrats are pro-abortion, pro-homosexual and obvious socialists. Better to not vote than to vote democrat.
Jeff| 11.7.10 @ 9:02PM
In my part of the country, a bastion of 'christian' republican thinking, our personhood amendment was trashed. The bishops did not support it because they though there are better ways of dealing with Roe. They haven't elaborated on those 'ways', but they failed to support a state constitutional amendment that said life begins at conception. If enacted, it would have been challenged, of course. But it would have been one of the first means in the country of driving the issue up to the Supreme Court. But the 'pro-life' people didn't get this bill passed. So quit your religious hypocrisy-a minority pro-life Catholics voted for the amendment, the majority voted against, knowing that if passed it could have saved the lives of many unborn babies. Your self righteous attitudes are pitiful.
Tony in Central PA| 11.5.10 @ 10:10PM
I was disgusted by the support Obama received from so many self - identified Catholics in 2008. His appearance at Notre Dame and the adulation he received there was nothing short of sickening.
Have things changed already ? I'm not so sure. One thing I know as a recent convert is that there are a lot of badly catechized Catholics ( some of them clergy ) these days who either don't know the Faith or don't care to know. Were so many people really so dumb as to swallow this President's obviously empty promises or has political expediency made opposition fashionable ?
Yosemeti Sam| 11.6.10 @ 10:22AM
" The Return of the Catholic Vote ...."
Hmmmm.
Democrat Bob Casey, Jr 'beat' Republican senate pro-life candidate Rick Santorum - by 700,000+ votes.
Where were the Catholics THEN - in principle?
Sadly, JUST another WEATHER VANE group:
2010 Economics now TRUMPED - 'lesser considerations'.
Swivel, swivel, swivel.
The PROBLEM on the part of the Catholic Church - they are so SOTTO VOCE.
In their Masses.
Bill Sundling| 11.6.10 @ 4:23PM
Catholics are part of the "Incredibly Shrinking Church". Catholicism is a cult. There are probably more ex-Catholics than there are Catholics. If Catholics read their Bibles they wouldn't stay Catholics.
OtterMommy| 11.9.10 @ 1:36PM
Dear Bill,
I guess you didn't get the memo: the Catholic Church gave us the Bible (you can say "thank you" now). I'm sure She read it before She approved it! It's the same Bible we read from every Sunday-in fact EVERY day for those who attend Mass daily. Three readings and a Psalm, as a matter of fact. With a reflection that follows. Based on the teachings of the founding fathers of the Church. If you read your history, you'd realize you can't escape your Catholic heritage.
You're welcome.
Jim| 11.7.10 @ 9:59PM
Deal Hudson it seems uses Catholicism as a cloak to cover his political agenda. the 'real' Catholics in any moral debate are the ones who acknowledge that everyone is seeking God and often struggling with their own decisions. The politicians who pretend to be Catholic, or Christian for that matter give away their priorities by lashing out at people who disagree with them politically, or otherwise. The 'Catholics' who have the audacity to know who is going to heaven or hell based on a voting decision are woefully lacking in Catholic values. If over half of the Catholic bishops voted for Obama in 08 as it was rumored to have happened, the inquisitor types here declare those bishops outside the Church? Jesuit Journal and thousands of other legitimate Catholic sources praised the Health Care Reform Act. They are as close to Christ as any of the pious ones supporting Deal's opinion. His use of the term 'Obama Care' easily exposes his political aims and destroys his attempt to cover those aims with his pretense of being Catholic.
Jim| 11.7.10 @ 10:13PM
Actually, the Catholic Church is expanding. It is Christ's Church so the devil's best efforts to wreck it keep failing. Now, Catholics do not do a good job at memorizing chapter and verse numbers, we do remember Bible content though. And because we do read our Bibles, our commitment to Christ's Church increases. Bill, your envy is showing all too much.
Anna Lynskey| 11.7.10 @ 11:32PM
You are right on with this one Deal.
The Catholic vote is one of the most powerful coalitions in politics. As Gov. Christie said this weekend, the GOP better put up or shut up because if they don't make us happy with who they front for 2012, the Tea Party is going to look less like a revolt and more like the political machine of the future.