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Politics
The Ephemeral Nature of Political Power
Barack Obama went from hero to goat in two years. What does that teach conservatives?
It’s tempting to explain Republicans’ resounding victory in last night’s midterm elections simply as a rebuke of liberal overreach and an outcry for conservative governance.
Barack Obama and his Democratic allies in Congress were swept into power on an abstract message of change, yet they took their victories as a mandate to aggressively impose their liberal vision on America. Having been reminded what liberalism looks like, the American people delivered a major thumpin’ to Democrats.
While that storyline may help explain part of what happened last night, it risks being short-sighted. Lest we forget that after 2004, when President Bush was reelected and Republicans gained seats, there was talk of a permanent GOP majority and of a need for Democrats to move back to the center if they had any hope of remaining relevant. Instead, Democrats moved to the left, and over the course of the next two elections, took back Congress and the White House, even attaining a filibuster-proof 60-vote majority in the Senate.
At the start of Obama’s term, he had a 67 percent approval rating, and pundits warned that Republicans would confine themselves to political oblivion if they pursued a policy of obstructionism. Yet this election season, Democrats who voted with their party leadership were massacred at the polls, while Republican candidates nationwide confidently touted their opposition to the Obama agenda.
The American public didn’t go from being socialists to Reaganite conservatives in the past two years, any more than their ideology radically transformed from 2004 to 2006. The lesson of recent elections, thus, may not be that the American people are right of center, or left of center, or dead center, but that many of them aren’t terribly ideological. This means that political power is ephemeral. No matter how popular one party is, they could be only one election away from embarrassing defeat. No matter how badly one party is defeated, they could be on the verge of a historic comeback. In this environment, reports of the demise of any political party, at any time, are likely to be greatly exaggerated.
One reaction to this reality is to argue that a political party should enact as many of its policy goals as they can while in charge. While Obama’s presidency is shaping up to be a spectacular failure from a political perspective, he may view it as a smashing success from a liberal ideological point of view. Instead of squandering Democrats’ time in power by playing small ball, he went bold.
His efforts culminated with the passage of a national health care law, which has been a primary goal of American liberalism for decades. Even if Republicans ultimately succeed in repealing it (which remains an uphill battle), they will have expended so much political capital to do so that it will inhibit their ability to advance conservative policies.
So what does this mean for the incoming Republican majority in the House, especially if eventually joined by a Republican Senate and president? When Republicans controlled the House from 1995 to 2007 (and the presidency for six years of that time) they failed to live up to conservative principles. The GOP will have to decide whether they will act boldly and truly attempt to rein in government while they have the chance, or play it safe. In this sense, the true test of the Tea Party movement will be whether it can successfully pressure Republicans to actually govern as conservatives once in power.
Republicans were defeated in 2006 and 2008 because Americans felt that the country was being mismanaged. And in 2010, Democrats had to explain their vote for an $862 billion economic stimulus package to the American people at a time of near double-digit unemployment. The lesson any party should take from recent election cycles is that voters will brutally punish poor governance, regardless of ideology.
Yet as fleeting as political power may be, it can be extended if voters believe those in charge know what they’re doing. Heading into 2012, conservatives will have a lot of debates over which presidential candidate is the best to challenge President Obama. But the chief question they should be asking themselves is which candidate, if elected, would actually be the best at being president. Or else, even if Republicans capture the presidency in 2012 and complete their dramatic comeback, they’ll be sowing the seeds of their next landslide defeat.
About the Author
Philip Klein is The American Spectator’s Washington correspondent. You can follow him on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/Philipaklein
Letter to the Editor View all comments (34) | Leave a comment
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Booger | 11.3.10 @ 6:14AM
From the desk of D. Mephistopheles, Attorney-at-Law:
Dear Freshman Class,
My oh my, but this has been an interesting election. I suppose you might say that I've been dealt a few lemons this time around, but you know what they say, so here's my chance to make some lemonade. Now, I know many of you have arrived here in D.C. with a somewhat jaundiced view of my fine old firm. Let me assure you, there is no need for such a gimlet eye. You are all winners, and as we all know, everyone loves a winner. So might I suggest that you take a little time to savor your victory, and then remember that old proverb that to the victor go the spoils. I would like to suggest to you that truer words have never been spoken. So why don't we take a few moments to discuss those spoils?
Now, first of all, let me assure you that although you have won your seat fair and square, there will be no shortage of people trying to take it away from you. Unfortunately that has always been the way of your poor, misguided race. What someone else has, someone else wants. Consider, furthermore, all the good and noble deeds you have come here to perform. If you lose your seat to some unscrupulous, conniving rival all your work and sacrifice will have gone for naught. Is that what you really want? What you need is someone who knows the ropes in this city, someone who knows the players and the games, someone who knows how to get things done. You need someone like me.
I assure you, my services will come with no strings attached. There is no need to worry about any sort of contractual obligation. Quite frankly, your money and power hold little appeal to me. Oh, I can see how such baubles might charm for a while, but I look for something far more valuable. At any rate, I would like to take this opportunity to offer my services as a consultant. You may, of course, feel free to disregard my advice whenever you see fit. That is always an option, although one that few who are wise in the ways of this great city choose to exercise. I can direct you on the path to lasting power, not a mere two-year stint and then a plane ticket home in disgrace. I can show you how to be a long-term success in this town.
I realize you may be a little suspicious of such an offer from my firm. Let me assure you that you have nothing to fear from us. I want only what is best for you and your great nation. All that I ask in return is that you listen to my advice. As stated earlier, you are free to ignore it. But I assure you, that I have learned from long practice, the more you listen the more you will follow my advice. Why? Because I can make you into what you really want to be: A true master of the levers of power.
After all, isn't that why you really came here? Oh, many of you make pretentious claims about "public service". Well of course that generates votes back home, but those of us here in D.C. know better, now don't we? Face it, you are smarter and wiser than your countrymen back home. If not, why would you be here? It's time to show just how wise you truly are by accepting this humble, pro-bono offering on the part of my firm. I assure you, you will incur no debt or obligation, so what harm could it possibly do?
So, let me offer you a little free advice right now that will make your transition to this city ever so much more pleasant, and increase your time in office:
First of all, many of you ran as "pro-life" candidates. Certainly I can appreciate the need to run on such a platform. After all, I know you have to impress the so-called "value voters" back home. I assure you, running as a "pro-life" candidate in no way disqualifies you from working with our fine firm. Why, such senate stalwarts as Ben Nelson and Harry Reid have run as "pro-life" candidates, along with that remarkable congressman Bart Stupak. Just remember, just because you have to run on a certain platform back home doesn't obligate you to any course of action here in D.C. And let's face it, if it was your daughter who had a little "accident", would you want to punish her with a baby? Of course not. Let's face it, there are too many unwanted children out there already sucking up the resources of this wonderful world. So let's not be too melodramatic about the whole thing.
Look, you don't have to commit to anything on this whole business anyway. I have found that the surest way to discover the truth is to take the middle position between two extremes. Okay, you don't have to support partial birth abortions (the court will take that out of your hands anyway). Just accept some reasonable instances when it's an unfortunate necessity. Just admit that it's sometimes for the best. Just advise your constituents that while your personally against it, you cannot legislate morality. Believe me, they'll understand and appreciate it. You will grow in office, and they will happily vote for you again and again.
Furthermore, what is all this worrying you carry on about over the deficit. So what if your country is carrying a load of debt. After all, so is everyone else. Sure, your constituents tell you they want you to balance the budget, but what do they really want to give up themselves? Not much, that's what. If you do cut spending programs that they love, what will they do? Vote for the other guy who's angling for your job, that's what. Do you really want to stick around up here? Then forget about cutting spending. You'll be voted out in a heartbeat. I strongly suggest that you consider increasing the revenue stream instead. Yes, they'll moan and complain a little about higher taxes, but when they see all the wonderful programs they get for their money, your people will be pleased as punch! There will be a few holdouts, of course, but don't worry. My firm projects that they will soon be a permanent minority, with the permanent majority beholden to you for bread and circuses. And when they're beholden to you then they have no choice but to vote for you, which means you can stay in this city just as long as you need to in order to complete your good works.
There are many other areas where you will, of course, need expert guidance in the ways of this city. You need a consulting firm with the experience and expertise that only I can provide. And please, let me stress once again, there are no strings attached. I have only your best interests at heart.
Please be advised, should you decline the offer of my continuing consulting services, I will of course be forced to extend it to someone else. Perhaps even to that unscrupulous fellow we all know is lurking in the woodwork, salivating at the opportunity to take away the seat you have only just won. Do you want him to win it from you in two short years? Of course not. So please, accept my offer early before I am forced to render my services available to your opposition instead. I can only hold this offer open for a few short hours. I look forward to our being able to work together.
Your true friend,
D. Mephistopheles, Attorney-at-Law
http://beautifulletters-bls.blogspot.com/
drudge ette obama| 11.3.10 @ 6:23AM
Why malign the goat population? Goats are better looking than Obama at this stage of the game. Smarter, too.
A goat wouldn't spend $200,000,000.00 to travel for one day to Mumbai.... That's 1/5 of a billion dollars and how many countless families' worth of annual tax payments.
Melvin| 11.3.10 @ 6:39AM
A goat would not spend tax payers money frivolously, but a Jackass would.
brewpop| 11.3.10 @ 6:56AM
Melvin, that was a great shot!
Eric Cartman| 11.3.10 @ 9:32AM
A goat is smart enough not to go to Mumbai, Filthy place.
dw| 11.3.10 @ 4:07PM
...times 10 days = 2 billion dollars for nothing in return. Just who are the jackasses....
INTJ| 11.3.10 @ 10:21AM
It is seldom the case that a comment is better than the article, but that's good stuff.
dw| 11.3.10 @ 5:02PM
From the desk of President Barack Obama
Dear Mehpistopheles,
As you know I am getting ready to depart on an important overseas visit to Southeast Asia. I will be meeting with various dignitaries and assorted political leaders, most of which, I have to admit between me and you, I have never heard of. But spending time in these exhausting meetings will be well worth it as I have made it possible through the largess of the American tax payer ( 2 billion dollars worth) to take over the entire Taj Hotel and to see some sort of famous light show. I'm going to try and get a round or two of golf in but, given the mood of the country, I will play that by ear.
Look, Meph, I know you sent out your standard contract offer to these new congressional members and hopefully we will have many of them take you up on your most generous offer, but in case not enough of them choose to side with us, I want to set up a strategy session with you during my vacation. While I would love to meet you in Hanoi that is obviously not possible. While most of the American people have proved to be on the dense side of the cardboard spectrum sliding off for a quick visit with Kim Jong Il and you might generate too much attention. So I would like to suggest Myanmar or perhaps, even, the conference room at the Taj.
Let me know what will work for you. As always I will make myself availible at your convenience.
B.
Lynn Chu| 11.3.10 @ 6:29PM
You rock, D. Mephistopheles!
Alan Brooks| 11.3.10 @ 10:21PM
"Barack Obama went from hero to goat in two years. What does that teach conservatives?"
To not say "read my lips, no new taxes"?
To not playact 'compassionate conservative'?
To not withdraw troops from Iraq before an insurgency is substantially dampened?
To do a Surge in Iraq sooner?
H| 11.4.10 @ 2:20PM
Hi
Dale Cord| 11.6.10 @ 12:36PM
Politicians such as Senator Gregg and political pundits like Glenn Beck are right to sound the alarm. But, their warnings are incomplete messages. It is sin that is the root of U.S. economic trouble – not Keynesian versus Austrian economics, or Republican versus Democrat versus Tea Party politics, or FOX News versus CNN News versus NPR analysts! What America really needs to understand and do is repent from breaking God’s biblical laws!
Because of America’s greed and sin – which includes breaking God’s weekly Sabbath (Saturday), His annual Holy Days, condoning and practicing sexual sins, violence, drunkenness, and pagan religion – end-time “Israel” will be punished. Without real, national repentance, the punishments foretold in Deuteronomy and elsewhere will come upon America. The once-great nation will be humbled and forced to serve its enemies “because of the wickedness of your doings” (Deuteronomy 28:15, 25-34). America will find itself dependent on foreign credit (vv. 43-44) and “in need of everything” (vv. 47-48) because it does “not obey the voice of the Lord your God, to observe carefully all His commandments and His statutes” Attorney's who defend "Evil" and prosecute "Good" will have their place in the "LAKE OF FIRE".
drudge ette obama| 11.3.10 @ 6:37AM
I just went to Democratic Underground to check the waters and the ugliness is astounding. Check out the Youtube (warning - bad language and behaviour)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OwOL5saCvqo
Appleby| 11.3.10 @ 6:39AM
This was the first vote by the Tweetheads -- those who cannot absorb anything longer than 140 characters. Not words, mind you -- CHARACTERS.
These are people who spend all day telling us about their dinner, from the moment the spoon goes in the mouth to the trip to the washroom at the end.
The clear message that I heard in this election is that two years is about as long as the current generation can focus.
stephanie| 11.3.10 @ 7:22AM
I refuse to Tweet. FB is enough for me.
Muslims love goat.
Nelson H.| 11.3.10 @ 12:06PM
You FB? I urge you to stop this pernicious practice! I don't do social media. I might consider anti-social media.
Yosemeti Sam| 11.3.10 @ 8:02AM
" ... Republicans were defeated in 2006 and 2008 because Americans felt that the country was being mismanaged. And in 2010, Democrats had to explain their vote for an $862 billion economic stimulus package to the American people at a time of near double-digit unemployment. The lesson any party should take from recent election cycles is that voters will brutally punish poor governance, regardless of ideology...."
" ... voters will brutally punish poor governance, regardless of ideology...."
IOW - circa 2010, after TASTING and rejecting governance from the Democrat party ABYSS, the electorate would toy with the notion of returning to that ABYSS to let Democrats have a second go of it?
Hmmmm.
Hmmmm.
Surely you - JEST!
gearjammer| 11.3.10 @ 10:52AM
Some states, from California to Rhode Island voted for more ABYSS. They were bailed out the last 2 years. Now 240 plus members of Congress and more if you believe some of the right of center blue dogs who got in will not bail them out. Obama and the Senate will try every trick in the book to keep these states alive. It is all about the money-they need our money or they will suffer. We must tell Jerry Brown and his massive number of voters you have 2 choices-bankruptcy or fiscal conservatism. This will drive them CRAZY ! We just need to be cool calm collected and professional.
Bill Hussein O'Stalin| 11.3.10 @ 8:03AM
Contrary to what this article indicates, dismantling health care could be a big winner for the Republicans.
Americans have already seen premium increases and there are higher taxes to come.
National health care is a pipe dream because it's a system with limitations. Therefore, not everyone will receive health care equally no matter what happens.
The Obama health care plan was simply redistribution of health care taking health care from those who can afford it, to those who choose not to pay for whatever reason.
Political power is not so ephemeral if you have good principles.
Clinton nee Publius| 11.3.10 @ 8:33AM
Power is a faithless pimp.
Lisa Merriam | 11.3.10 @ 9:00AM
Brand Obama is in trouble. Here is some advice for a branding expert: http://bit.ly/9T3PFP
INTJ| 11.3.10 @ 10:17AM
Power in America is never fleeting, because it resides with the American people. We always have the power to "throw the bums out." Republicans should remember what Democrats forgot: Be true to the people, and the people will be true to you.
Cabermon| 11.3.10 @ 11:18AM
"For over a thousand years, Roman conquerors returning from the wars enjoyed the honor of a triumph - a tumultuous parade. In the procession came trumpeters and musicians and strange animals from the conquered territories, together with carts laden with treasure and captured armaments. The conqueror rode in a triumphal chariot, the dazed prisoners walking in chains before him. Sometimes his children, robed in white, stood with him in the chariot, or rode the trace horses. A slave stood behind the conqueror, holding a golden crown, and whispering in his ear a warning: that all glory is fleeting."
Patton, 1970
"Don't get cocky, kid!"
Han Solo
Star Wars, 1977
Howard| 11.3.10 @ 12:15PM
The key with ObamaCare is yes, repeal, BUT, replace. I'm afraid a simple repeal will set us up in the next election. Also, I'm so impressed by Eric Cantor and Paul Ryan and the like. They are so far superior to Pelosi, Rangel, and the rest of those jerks.
davelnaf| 11.3.10 @ 12:19PM
About the last paragraph in the author’s article: while it is true that hubris can prove fatal to an individual politician’s or party’s fortunes it is fanciful to assume this might happen to Republicans given recent history. It is very unlikely they will ever again nominate someone as certifiably inarticulate as the last Bush in office. By 2006 the voters were angered by his spending and failure to do anything about our border integrity. His misstep into Iraq also had its effect. But Bush’s inability to personally articulate why he made these decisions deeply angered voters. The two Bushes may have been sincere and decent people, but their poor ability to explain their policies to voters brought on Clinton and the most destructive president in our nation’s history.
Dave C| 11.3.10 @ 3:09PM
After watching literally hundreds of careers driven off a cliff by following the president's policies, I believe legislators of both stripes will be hard pressed to risk their careers by voting with an ideologue. Passing health care may be great for Obama's ego, but it will take decades for the democratic party to recover from the damage. How many other policies will never see the light of day because of his arrogance?
Marty| 11.3.10 @ 4:08PM
Or, as Richard J. Daley used to say, "Good government is good politics and good politics is good government"?
It's another thing whether he walked the talk...
Yes, most voters are nonideological. But this column does beg the question of what IS a good president? As a matter of policies and programs, as the symbolic head of state, as party leader, and so on...
Anthony| 11.3.10 @ 7:34PM
As a country, we actually have no choice but to overturn Obamacare, we can't afford it. Whether we like or not, we're out of money and on dangerous ground financially. The experiment of socialism was tried in Europe and it failed. If we continue spending more than we can afford, we will become a third world country. No one's going to bail us out.
heir2freedom | 11.3.10 @ 8:56PM
Insightful article!
Here's a related article you all should read:
AMERICA SPEAKS UP LOUD AND CLEAR; OBAMAMANIA IS OFFICIALLY DECLARED DEAD
http://heir2freedom.blogspot.c.....clear.html
Bill Sundling| 11.4.10 @ 4:52AM
It doesn't teach us anything because our ideas work.
Irish22| 11.4.10 @ 10:51AM
"Our ideas work." True enough, but apparently they don't sell very well. Somehow we have a hard time convincing people that freedom is better than slavery. The lesson should be that government can't do any of the things politicians promise, and the sooner the electorate comes to believe that, the better off we will all be.
PacRim Jim | 11.6.10 @ 2:53PM
Has anyone anticipated limits on the terms of career politicians, once people routine live for 100 years or longer?
Swen Swenson| 11.6.10 @ 7:32PM
"... the true test of the Tea Party movement will be whether it can successfully pressure Republicans to actually govern as conservatives once in power."
Bingo! It's understandable that those who wield the power of government seek to expand their power by growing government. That's human nature, that's what went wrong after the Republicans took over in 1994, and there are plenty of Republicans in Congress who would be very happy to get back to business as usual again, except with the checkbook in their hands. Take a look at page 21 of the Pledge to America, where it says they promise to "put common-sense limits on the growth of government". We can't afford the government we've got now, but they didn't pledge to shrink it, only that under Republican leadership we'll go broke slightly slower than with Democrats at the helm. They essentially pledged that they'll be slightly less fiscally irresponsible than the Democrats.
I can understand not wanting to over-promise, but that's got to be the all-time champion under-promise. They might as well have shown us that they had their fingers crossed when they published the Pledge.
So yeah, we've got to be aware that we can't let up for a minute or our congressclowns will go right back to their free-spending ways, just as they always have before. For awhile there We the People forgot that eternal vigilance is the price of liberty, we must never forget again.