Whether you prefer to believe expert predictions that it will be
a “maelstrom,”
a “bloodbath,”
or merely a “blowout,”
Republicans are poised to make substantial gains in Congress next
Tuesday and deliver a severe blow to the Obama presidency in the
process.
Just two years after sweeping into power on a platform of hope
and change, Obama finds himself and his agenda a political
liability to Democratic candidates throughout the nation. Though he
took office with a 67 percent
Gallup approval rating in January 2009, it stood at 44 percent
in the most recent survey and has dipped as low as 41 percent. And
though he built his candidacy by positioning himself as the
anti-Bush, by a 48 percent to 43 percent margin, Americans now
think that George Bush was the better president, according to a new
survey by Democratic pollster Doug Schoen. The same poll found
that 56 percent of the nation wants Obama fired in 2012.
It’s true that as sharp as Obama’s decline has been, the speed
of his reversal of political fortunes should serve as a warning to
Republicans who are feeling emboldened right now. Just as Obama’s
meteoric rise has been followed by a precipitous fall, he could
conceivably make a triumphant comeback two years from now.
That said, the two most recent examples of presidential
comebacks following defeats in the midterm elections are Bill
Clinton after Republicans took back Congress in 1994 and Ronald
Reagan after Democrats gained 26 seats to build on their majority
in 1982. But there are a number of reasons why Obama’s situation is
different.
Clinton was able to mount a political comeback by abandoning his
ambitious liberal goals such as health care legislation, bringing
up small symbolic issues as in school uniforms and successfully
portraying House Republicans as extremists.
Yet while Clinton was willing to sacrifice his agenda for his
short-term political benefit, Obama is an ideological liberal who
is committed to imposing his policy vision on America regardless of
its popularity. Unlike Clinton, Obama successfully passed his
unpopular national health care plan, which will continue to disrupt
the lives of individuals and businesses over the next two
years.
In addition, Republicans have learned a lot of lessons from the
experience of 1994, and it’s unlikely that Rep. John Boehner, if he
should become House Speaker, will make himself as easy a foil for
Obama as Newt Gingrich was for Clinton.
As with Clinton, there are clear parallels between Obama’s
situation now, and the political difficulty Reagan found himself in
1982. After running on a promise to restore the nation’s economy,
the country was mired in a deep recession with high unemployment
despite passing his landmark tax cuts.
Reagan’s Gallup approval rating stood at 42 percent in October
1982 (and would reach as low as 35 percent that following January).
In 1983, however, the economy improved, and it was booming by 1984
— fueling Reagan’s landslide victory over Walter Mondale.
As with Reagan, Obama’s political fortunes will largely hinge on
whether or not Americans feel the economy has recovered by the time
of the next election. In Reagan’s case, he took office with an
inflation rate of
nearly 12 percent. The Federal Reserve Board’s tight monetary
policy choked off economic growth early on, but by the end of 1982,
the worst was over, inflation was down to under 4 percent, and
Reagan’s tax cuts had a chance to work.
Obviously, it’s difficult to predict where the economy will be
two years from now. But unlike Reagan, in Obama’s case, the Federal
Reserve Board is largely out of ammo in terms of boosting the
economy by lowering interest rates further, and instead is expected
to try inflating the economy by printing money and purchasing
bonds. Meanwhile, the White House has
reported that as of September, 70 percent of the economic
stimulus package had been spent. With the renewed attention to
federal deficits, it’s doubtful that Obama will be able to sign
another large economic package.
In addition, the Obama administration has added a raft of new
regulations to businesses, including those in the national health
care law. The regulatory environment could even worsen further if
Republicans take back Congress, because then the administration
will become more dependent on federal agencies to impose aspects of
Obama’s agenda that he can no longer hope to pass legislatively. It
also remains an open question as to whether Obama will be able to
get his proposed tax increase by allowing the Bush era rates to
expire at the end of the year.
While Obama may have difficulty digging himself out of his
political hole on his own, there’s always the chance that he can
get help from Republicans. Even if Obama is vulnerable in 2012, the
GOP will have to find a strong nominee to challenge him, and right
now, the prospective Republican field is uninspiring. There’s also
the distinct possibility that Republicans will show themselves to
be weak at governing, disappointing their base as well as
independents who gave them a chance to prove themselves.
