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Political Hay
Coming Up ‘R’
Florida is such a GOP stronghold this year that even Republican-created Democrat districts are in play for Republicans like Mike Prendergast.
TAMPA — When the votes have been counted next Tuesday, Florida will almost certainly have come up R — not roses, Republicans. And conservative Republicans at that.
In a state where Democrats have about five percent more registered voters than Republicans, those outnumbered Republicans are early-voting at a rate 20 percent higher than Democrats. And there’s no end of the “enthusiasm gap” in sight here. Republicans also out-voted Democrats in the primary here in August.
Polls show Republicans with statistically significant to comfortable leads in every state-wide race save that for governor, where Florida CFO Alex Sink and former health care executive Rick Scott are within the margin of error. Even in this race the latest Rasmussen Poll, an outfit which had a good record of predicting races in Florida in 2008, gives Scott a six-point lead.
Republican candidates for all four Florida cabinet posts, all of whom are running on conservative platforms, are taking poll leads into the final week of the campaign. If they win, they will work with a Florida Legislature that now sports Republican advantages of 26 to 14 in the Senate and 76-44 in the House, and shows no signs of being bluer after next Tuesday.
Republican strength is being felt down the ticket as well. Two east-coast liberal Democratic Congressmen are getting strong competition from conservative challengers. Even Florida’s 11th Congressional District — Tampa and bits of St. Petersburg and Bradenton — is in play this year. This is remarkable as Florida 11 was drawn by the Republican state legislature to be a sump to pour Democratic voters into so the adjoining districts could remain comfortably Republican. No Republican has ever represented Tampa in the U.S. House since this seat was created in 1962.
To win in Florida 11 a Republican must get all the Republicans to the polls, virtually run the table with independents, and convince some moderate Democrats to go R. Normally this would be out of the question. But 2010 is not a normal political year.
Incumbent Florida 11 Congresswoman Kathy Castor has a straight Obama voting record — “Stimulus” slush fund, cap and trade, ObamaCare, the entire disaster — and she’s arrogant and complacent into the bargain. In “public hearings” into ObamaCare Castor was disdainful of those who spoke against what was clearly very unpopular legislation in her district. She suggested that those who opposed it were stooges of the pharmaceutical and insurance industries.
This has given retired Army Colonel Mike Prendergast, an articulate, informed, and energetic conservative, a shot at the impossible. He’s been endorsed by still popular former Florida governor Jeb Bush and by Mike Huckabee. His campaign has created a lot of buzz in a district where even a fair number of Democrats believe Obama and Company have gone too far.
There’s some debate over which office and which race is most important. But there’s little doubt that the top of the Florida Republican ticket this year is former Florida House Speaker Marco’s Rubio’s run for the U.S. Senate. The articulate and conservative 39-year-old Rubio has created a lot of excitement among national as well as Florida conservatives. There’s already debate among savvy political observers on the question of what year Rubio will wind up on the national ticket. He’s that good.
Rubio’s campaign has tried to keep a cap on this kind of feverish talk. After all, he hasn’t even won the Senate seat yet. But almost all polls show him with a double-digit lead in Florida’s curious three-way Senate race. The latest Real Clear Politics average of polls shows Rubio with 42.5 percent, Florida’s independent governor Charlie Crist, who a few months ago was sort of a Republican, at 30.8, and liberal Democratic Miami Congressman Kendrick Meek trailing badly at 19.5.
Clearly Obama’s two-point win in Florida in 2008 was a one-off, an unforced error, not part of a trend from red to blue. Florida was then and remains a majority center-right state. Obama’s leftist core was hiding in plain sight in ‘08, but voters didn’t get much help from the left-stream media in recognizing this, so lots of Floridians cast votes in November of 2008 that they soon came to regret. They don’t appear to be in the mood to be fooled again in 2010.
About the Author
Larry Thornberry is a writer in Tampa.
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Booger | 10.27.10 @ 6:41AM
From the desk of D. Mephistopheles, Attorney-at-Law
To: Congressman Alan Grayson
Dear Congressman Grayson,
Well, it seems your having a bit of trouble here. Nothing like a "Daniel Webster" to give a devil his due, is there? All right, let me explain a few things to you here.
First of all, as to what you are doing right: You have been masterful at following our firm's recommendation concerning false witness. Your "Taliban Dan" ad was quite simply one of our favorite pieces ever, right up there with Tom Cruise in "A Few Good Men" (because we loved seeing a lawyer show up those stupid Marines). But I digress. What you need is MORE of the same. You need MORE Taliban Dan ads, more ads explaining that Republicans want old people to die quickly (I LOVE the irony of using that while you are the one actually voting to cut Medicare and install death panels! Brilliant!) and so forth. What you need then is more money. But isn't that always the case? Well, of course we can help.
We here at the firm have been in contact with our sister organization, the George Soros Foundation. We can assure you all the funding you need to continue your great work of bearing false witness to ensure that religious fanatic you are running against is both defeated and defamed. But we'll need a little something from you first. Not your soul, obviously. We've got that already, per our previous agreements. No, a little something else. But let's come back to that in a minute.
You still have room for improvement as a Congressman. Yes, I know it's hard to believe, but you can become even better. I see in your rhetorical style, with it's bombastic flourishes and appeal to the masses, along with its disregard for such irrelevancies as facts, a reminder of one of my all time favorites, Il Duce. I think you could really be just like him. There's just a couple of little steps you need to take.
You may have noticed that back in the good old days of the 1930s, Our Candidates weren't afraid to get their hands dirty. They weren't afraid of a good rumble every now and then to get their point across to the people. Already I see our seed has been sown in Kentucky amongst those on both sides. What about it Congressman, are you up to the task? You have always seemed to us to be just the sort of guy who would know how to "take it to the street".
If you are willing to use Strife, one of our favorite tools, in its most literal sense, then we believe you can still win this election. We will be happy to provide plenty of troops from the SEIU (Don't you just love the purple shirts? So much nicer than brown or black.) and funding from Soros.
Now as to that one little thing we will need? Well, you have shown no hesitancy to back our death panels, to slander your opponents, to use lawfare against your critics or to hasten the death of the unborn. So we need to see you with a little blood on your hands Alan. Not metaphorically or metaphysically, but real, true, blood. Because we've seen your actions, listened to your speeches, and know what's in your heart. We know this is what you really want. So just go ahead and do it, and all we can offer will be yours. After all, that Webster clown has it coming anyway.
Your friend in wrath,
D. Mephistopheles, Attorney-at-Law
A. Grayson| 10.27.10 @ 9:13AM
From the desk of Congressman Alan GraysonD.
To: Mephistopheles, Attorney-at-Law
My Dear Brother,
Thank you for the kind words. I will take them to heart and pull out all the stops. How about Joy Behar running some ads for me - or Bil Ayres? And can you please speak to those clowns in Mexico and tell them to shut up until after the election? And keep Obama away from Florida for me - he's difficult to explain. Perhaps a vacation with the wife to Indonesia.
Give my best to Mom and Dad and tell our friend Goebbels thanks for the book.
XOXOXO
Your Brother, Alan.
Redstateboy| 10.27.10 @ 10:57AM
Remember you saw it here and I said it first...
The Rats are going to employ all across the Country their standard procedure... Recount, Recount, Recount and then and only then when they have enough votes - will they declare their Candidate has won and the Election is over.
loulou| 10.27.10 @ 11:59AM
They've already started.
Negro X| 10.27.10 @ 4:40PM
Conservative who think they are going to win big are mistaken, liberal voter fraud will carry the day. The conservatives have learned nothing.
Conservatvie Bob| 10.27.10 @ 7:34PM
X
Rampant widespread vote fraud this cycle will be ill advised. The tensions are dangerously high. I fear such action would ignite a fire that would not easily be extinguished.
Pray for our Republic she needs it more than ever.
Negro X| 10.27.10 @ 7:44PM
The magic negro isn't concerned with igniting fires, he runs the fire department.