The congressional battle in northern Virginia’s
11th district is ablaze.
The sprightly local conservative paper, the Washington
Examiner, just sprouted the headline on October 20,
“Connolly-Fimian goes down to wire. Parties pour cash into key Va.
Race.” It seems that Republican Keith Fimian “raised more than $1
million between July and September, compared with [Democratic
Congressman Gerry] Connolly’s $418,000.”
“With most of that money still in the bank, Fimian now
rivals Connolly’s $1.4 million war chest with just two weeks left
in the campaign,” writes the Examiner’s David
Sherfinski.
As I have written
before on this site, if the Republicans can win in this suburban
area outside of Washington, D.C., they will sweep the field
nationally given the challenge of a Republican campaigning in a
district with numerous federal workers and many others who work for
businesses that support the government. It has a unique mix of
affluence and a large, albeit very diverse, immigrant
population.
The
percent of minorities in the 11th district is 39.7 percent and
will, no doubt, be the focus of a major mobilization effort as
Democratic “base voters.
Republican businessman Keith Fimian is running against a
one-term incumbent, Gerry Connolly, a career politician who
mastered the intricacies of local county politics before entering
Congress. Fimian lost resoundingly to Connolly in 2008 in the wake
of Obama’s win in the Commonwealth.
The Washington Post, the hegemon of the local
media market, just
endorsed Connolly. No surprise there. Moreover, the paper’s
local metro writer, Robert McCarthy, recently
expressed skepticism that an anti-spending, pro-life candidate
could win in such a district as the 11th, which is “flush with
federal funds,” as the headline put it.
The good news is that the Post has been
relatively uninterested in the race so far, certainly compared to
the recent gubernatorial race in which it went thermonuclear,
throwing a fit about an old master’s thesis written by now
Republican governor several decades ago expressing socially
conservative views. It literally printed dozens of articles,
columns, editorials, features and other items expressing
appropriate outrage over several weeks. Fortunately, the
Republican, Bob McDonnell won the state and the 11th congressional
district for that matter.
Contrary to Fimian’s early private polling, the New
York Times, has, for several weeks, posted
on its Politics website something that appears to be a poll showing
Connolly beating Fimian 51.4 to 46.2 percent. It put the chance of
Connolly winning at 77.4 percent. There is very little explanation
of the paper’s methodology, other than a mysterious tag line
stating that the data are “Based on polling, expert forecasts,
fundraising, past election returns and other
indicators…”
The Times does indicate that the March poll done
for the Fimian campaign, directed at likely voters, showed him
beating Connolly 40-35.
Notwithstanding Fimian’s charge that Connolly supported
Speaker Nancy Pelosi 97 percent of the time, as well as numerous
tax increases both in Congress and Fairfax County government, the
incumbent Democrat has been touting his support for extending the
Bush tax cuts. This is shrewd in a superficial sort of way since
the district is one of the wealthiest in the country. Yet, it is
hard to believe that the typical affluent, well-educated voter will
really see this as anything other than, to use the venerable
cliché, an election-year ploy.
RealClearPolitics, the indispensable one-stop website for
all things political, has consistently
listed Virginia’s 11th in the “Toss Up” category.
It is also good to see Tom Davis, the former moderate
Republican congressman for the district, coming on board and
signing a strong fundraising letter on behalf of Fimian which hit
donors’ mailboxes the middle of October. He had stayed out of the
hard-fought primary. So far, Fimian’s opponent in that race has yet
to be heard from.
Subjective evaluations of political campaigns are not to
be trusted, but there is certainly a much more upbeat tone to the
Fimian campaign this time around.
Fimian has the confidence of a former football player, the
money, the momentum and the will to take the fight to Connolly, who
many in Fairfax County seem to believe has a kind of divine right
to the seat.
I attended a very successful fundraiser, one of many the
Fimian campaign has held. This one featured the Virginia Attorney
General. It was well-attended and the crowd was
enthusiastic.
Keith Fimian was in good form that night with a stump
speech well-honed on the campaign trail.
Other fundraising events have featured the Governor and
various sitting and former members of Congress and the
Senate.
FreedomWorks PAC has
endorsed Fimian, and the Republican Congressional Committee has
elevated him to “Young Guns” status, which brings with it
fundraising and other resources. The National Right to Life
Committee has also done a targeted mailing in support of
Fimian.
This being the United States in the age of the media
circus, things will get very nasty in the home stretch.
Fortunately, the GOP has a poised, competitive and well-financed
candidate on the ticket in Virginia’s 11th congressional
district.
He is going for the gold at the end of Fimian’s
Rainbow.
