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Streetcar Line
Cao Is No Goner
New Orleans Republican can win re-election.
Among Republican campaign officials, some ignoramuses — of which there are many in the GOP campaign ranks — are telling Politico that U.S Rep. Joseph Cao, R-New Orleans, has no chance of winning re-election. I’d like to take all the said ignoramuses into a dark alley with some boxing gloves. As has been the case for at least a quarter century, Washington Republicans have no clue how Louisiana politics work, have a propensity to screw up Louisiana politics, and are a menace to Louisiana Republican candidates. Just as I wrote twice, two years ago, that Cao could win his race for Congress, before the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) found the half a brain cell necessary to figure out that it should be trying to help Cao win, I again am here to explain this to any conservative who cares: Objectively speaking, Cao (pronounced Gow, rhymes with cow) has an even-money chance to hold his seat. His odds would be better still if national conservatives donated some money.
Before explaining the electoral politics, it’s worth explaining why conservatives should care. Other utter ignoramuses in the conservative ranks seem to think it really doesn’t matter if Cao wins or not. “He’s a RINO,” they say. “We can’t count on him.”
Give me a break. So what if Joseph Cao isn’t a movement conservative? So what if he’s a centrist economically? He’s a former Jesuit seminarian with competing impulses: one, the impulse of compassion, the impulse of the “social Gospel” that teaches concern about the welfare of “the least of these”; and two, the impulse born of lessons learned from personal experience and observation that some sorts of “aid” are counterproductive and that the best sort of compassion is that which promotes self-reliance rather than dependence. From that standpoint, every single offer of government aid becomes a test of practicality: Does the aid do more good than harm? Does it foster self-sufficiency or, instead, long-term dependence? What are the details of the legislation? How will it work in practice? And how will the costs be borne? Can they be afforded? On the other hand, can they not be afforded because the societal costs of governmental inaction would be worse?
These are not the questions asked by a conservative purist, of course. But they are not illegitimate questions. They are questions of principle. They are questions of somebody thoughtful. Ideology doesn’t enter. The ideology of “true believers” is dangerous. (Hint: Read Eric Hoffer.) What matters is philosophical principle, adhered to in the fire of contention. What also matters is a proper understanding of the American system. Members of Congress are neither purely delegates nor purely representatives. They are delegated authority to use their best judgment while lawmaking. But they also are supposed to represent the views and best interests of their constituents. Their job is to do both at the same time to the best of their ability, to reconcile these sometimes conflicting roles, and to do so with integrity.
Imagine, then, that you represent a district that is 61% black and that voted 75% for Barack Obama for president. But you have doubts about whether it really is compassionate for government always to be the first option to help poor people get on their feet. You have doubts about whether government aid will work in practice, and about whether it can be afforded. These are prudential doubts. So what you do is you work and work; you tend your political garden; you provide tremendous constituent service; you listen to all sides; you study the legislation before you vote; and you straddle the fence for a long time not because you are weak, but because you are legitimately trying to work out what’s best for your constituents and for the country.
But one thing you do know: That which you believe is utterly immoral is something you can never support, no matter what some of your constituents think. And if, like Joseph Cao, you think that abortion is the taking of an innocent human life, a killing that can never be countenanced, then you never, ever, ever budge in your opposition to having government pay for abortions or otherwise giving positive sanction to abortions. And, no matter the pressure on you on that account, you stand with courage in favor of life, and you do not yield. (And if pro-life groups don’t fall all over themselves raising money for you in return, you still don’t yield, even if they are utterly stupid.)
You also know, from personal experience, that Communism is evil. You escaped the Vietcong in the cargo hold of an airplane fleeing Saigon when you were eight years old. Your father was held and beaten in a prison camp for many years after that. You know that the United States is a land of freedom and opportunity, and that it stands for what is best in the world while totalitarians of all sorts must be opposed. So (even though your height barely tops five feet), you stand tall for freedom.
That’s what Cao has done. And while conservatives may prefer somebody who will vote like Milton Friedman would want, or who will balance the budget like the Gingrich-Livingston-Kasich brigades of 1995-1997, or who will drink from the intellectual cup of William F. Buckley, those same conservatives are fools if they don’t understand that somebody who will be in the middle is far better than someone always on the left. Those same conservatives, if they are pro-life, are fools if they don’t appreciate that somebody who is pro-life by conviction is better than somebody decidedly pro-choice. And they really are pathetic fools if they don’t appreciate a firm anti-Communist, a believer in freedom and self-reliance, a lover of America, and a man of deep integrity.
You particularly appreciate him if he keeps his integrity even while opposed by powerful interests from a city notorious for political corruption. In fact, you don’t just appreciate him; you think he’s a gem.
Yet here are the GOP Pooh-Bahs who think Cao now holds his seat in Congress only by fluke. They think he’s not worth the effort of saving because he can’t, politically, be saved. And yes, here are the same sorts of people who said Rick Santorum couldn’t win in 1990 or 1994 or 2000, and who didn’t think Marco Rubio could be a stronger candidate than Charlie Crist, or that Ronald Reagan was too old or too conservative ever to win in 1980. In short, their views aren’t worth considering. Their views are worthless.
Here is the situation on the ground. Before the campaign really heated up, Cao actually led the polls by a wide margin, because his hard work and sincerity have made him very popular among all races and ethnicities in the New Orleans area. Once the campaign heated up and he was re-identified in the black community as a Republican, he dropped behind. But internal polls — and my own anecdotal sources, as a native New Orleanian and veteran of New Orleans politics — show him now within a typical survey’s margin of error.
He also has momentum. National Democrats, thinking Cao a goner, have withdrawn campaign aid for Democratic opponent, state Rep. Cedric Richmond. But Richmond has a checkered past that the local media finally is starting to really focus on. Amidst other official ethics problems, Richmond lost his law license for lying in election qualifying papers in 2005. He’s also under fire, or under investigation, for alleged financial shenanigans involving a non-profit with which he has been closely associated.
And stories (not definitively substantiated) are rampant, including on local New Orleans blog sites, about several incidents in which Richmond allegedly hit former girlfriends. It’s nasty stuff, and at least semi-widely believed in the New Orleans political community. (I report it here neither to give it legitimacy nor to question its legitimacy, but to explain the political terrain now existent in the race.)
People outside of New Orleans don’t understand an attitudinal shift that has taken place there, across the entire community, white and black. The antipathy against corruption is now strong. People who have recovered from Katrina no longer have patience for the same shenanigans. And race matters less: In this still largely black majority city, the white Mitch Landrieu won election as mayor in a 66% landslide in an 11-way jungle primary. Sure, Landrieu is no conservative. But he’s competent, and no crook. And he lost twice earlier for mayor, back when people voted mostly along racial lines. His huge win this time shows a big change in cultural/political outlook.
Cao, for his part, already has secured endorsements from several major black preachers, from black Democratic assessor (a powerful local post) Erroll Williams, from respected black Democratic primary loser and state Rep. Juan LaFonta, and from several top (white) Democratic City Councilwomen. And as this story goes to press, I am told with assurance that perhaps the single most beloved New Orleans Saint, former All-Pro running back Deuce McAllister — more admired across racial lines than even Drew Brees or Archie Manning, a love born not just for his work ethic on the field but through McAllister’s unfailing support for keeping the Saints in New Orleans when even owner Tom Benson seemed inclined otherwise — also will endorse Cao this week. This is (sorry for the pun) a game-changer. It’s immensely important.
About the Author
Quin Hillyer is a senior editor of The American Spectator and a senior fellow at the Center for Individual Freedom. Follow him on Twitter @QuinHillyer.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (32) | Leave a comment
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Ryan| 10.21.10 @ 8:40AM
I think that we may see some posters try and bring up the similarity to the Castle-O'Donnell issue, but keep in mind a few things:
1. Cao is no liberal. He's essentially a conservative who has to figure out how to represent a left-of-center district.
2. He has/had no real opposition from the right, and there was no big "tea party" movement in the New Orleans area that, at least, had influence. He is, by default, the best option available.
3. You pretty much have to be "from Louisiana" to get Louisiana politics (which I am - born and raised in Baton Rouge) - even moreso than Delaware. Most political situations there really have no comparison. Even Louisianians don't get it much of the time.
4. It's a House race, NOT the Senate. Not quite small fries, but there's a little more room to give ideologically here than in a Senate race, where pushing out the moderates is more important.
John Navratil| 10.21.10 @ 9:27AM
I grew up in Baton Rouge and know a bit about Louisiana politics. While I can't disagree with Mr. Hillyer - I haven't his depth of knowledge about the candidate - it's hardly a minor indiscretion to have voted for Obamacare.
I'm sure if I were in his district I'd vote for the man just as I, with reservations, voted for McCain. But, it takes some fancy explaining to claim that his Obamacare vote was a principalled balance of "best judgment while lawmaking" and "best interests of [his] constituents". If his vote was his best judgement, I question his judgement. If it was to protect the best interests of his constituents, I question his judgement.
Quin| 10.21.10 @ 10:07AM
For what it's worth, he voted against the final version of Obamacare. He also voted against the stimulus package.
John Navratil| 10.21.10 @ 11:08AM
Indeed, he did. It is the basis of the redemption argument. One can only speculate what this race would be like if he had been the only Republican to vote for final passage, just as one can only speculate what the November 2nd election would look like if Obamacare hadn't passed so many squeaker votes on the way to final passage.
Roy| 10.21.10 @ 10:48AM
Cao sounds like, at worst, a principled moderate. That I'll take. The problem with most "moderates" is that they are actually squishes.
Let's say politics goes from -1 (far left) to 1(far right). I want things to be at 0.75 but the only choices are an 0 and a -0.5. The question still is whether the 0 is principled or not. If not then when policy -0.25 is proposed, the NY Times will stroke his ego if he complies and howl and yibber about his "extremism" if he doesn't. Will he cave?
If so(Lincoln Chafee, Charlie Crist) then forget him.
If not (Cao) then he's a win.
Bayou Babe| 10.21.10 @ 11:05AM
I regularly receive Cao’s e-mail updates and those make it plain he struggles with what he learned in seminary (Liberation Theology) and what he knows of Communism. Compounding that struggle is his sound knowledge of his district. He walks a razor’s edge and I have to give him credit for maintaining his balance, however shaky.
Further, Cao is an honorable man and the mere thought of his district returning to corrupt representation is dizzying. It’s becoming increasingly clear his Dem opposition likely is more corrupt than Jefferson was. Couple that with Cao’s vote for a Republican Speaker and I’m ever hopeful he keeps the seat.
Kyle| 10.21.10 @ 11:48AM
Yes, and he was so honorable when he told one of the BP corporate guys to commit Hari Kari, during a committee hearing. Fine guy that Cao. When it comes to Cao, I say, "who needs him?" I don't if he has to tip toe around his big government district, I'd close the big tent door on him. He was one of the few Republicans who met with Obama just days before the healthcare vote, and he would be a shoe in to reach across the aisle. We don't him and his dysfuntional district which will compromise his vote on every issue. We will have plenty of Republicans in the House. Also, I don't care that he entered a Jesuit Seminary; lots of young men do and then drop out, just like he did; big deal.
loulou| 10.21.10 @ 12:34PM
If memory serves me correctly, the mental case Jerry Brown was a Jesuit seminarian. Big whoop.
Tri Nguyen| 10.27.10 @ 3:02PM
Cao is Vietnamese. The Vietnamese people or a lot of Asian people do not commit Hari Kari. For him saying that I think he did not get the facts right and he is very violent. Who gives a hoot that he was in Jesuit Seminary. Maybe it helps him to manipulate people. You should hear stories about his wife. Go down to New Orlean East and ask any Vietnamese people about his wife. Nothing nice to talk about.
Kyle| 10.21.10 @ 12:01PM
Hey Quinn,
How about you write a puff piece on a conservative running for office whose election might actually help the conservative movement? Writing a total slobber piece on Cao? What a waste of time and energy.
loulou| 10.21.10 @ 12:32PM
Kyle, I agree.
Did Quin write a piece on a true conservative, Christine O'Donnell? Or is he going along with the Roving?
jh | 10.21.10 @ 1:09PM
How about supporting a person that is very pro-life, has ethics, is against Cap and Trade , and a host of other issues that he is aligned with conservatives on.
Sometimes I get the feeling that some conservatives want a corrupt Democrat in New Orleans so they have something to talk about.
I wonder why we are so expendable down here to some
Kyle| 10.21.10 @ 2:47PM
Cao is too much of a politician for my liking. He may be right on some issues, but will he influence his district over the years so that they become more conservative, or will Cao vote more liberal over the years, because of his district. I would bet that he will be likely to vote with Democrats many times, and then we will all have to be sympathetic to him because his district is liberal. It will be just like the whole, "a RINO is the best you can get in MA, IL, DE, PA, etc., etc." That argument will kill this nation, because 30 years from now the list of states where only a RINO can get elected will continue to grow.
jh | 10.21.10 @ 1:07PM
Thank you so much for writing this. I am praying CAO gets backs in. In some ways I guess we can be thankful that perhaps the Republicans have not noticed this race tillnow because it might have got DEMS overconfident.
MacAoidh | 10.21.10 @ 1:37PM
Another discussion of Rep. Cao and conservative support for him...
http://thehayride.com/2010/10/.....joseph-cao
Sheila| 10.21.10 @ 4:02PM
Ah yes, and tell me again how you all are "principled conservatives" rather than rah-rah-republicans, please? Same old, same old, garbage in - garbage out. Decline and fall.
NJK| 10.21.10 @ 5:02PM
Anyone who voted against the United States Constitution, and the people must be removed. The Constitution is not negotiable, and not upholding your oath can no longer be tolerated.
bob bolin| 10.21.10 @ 6:56PM
Wow. So this is what it's like over in the red zone. "Movement" Republicans? RINOs? Anyone not following "the movement" is voting against the US Constitution? Someone is "squishy" if they don't lockstep with the "movement"? Sorry folks but your "movement" would have locked out your own supposed idol "Reagan". Hell even Buckley would be squishy to you people. Someone talked about the -1/1 range. I think most people are in that range. Most of you on other hand are out in +7 or +8.
Roy| 10.23.10 @ 11:06PM
Whatever. I'm sure the part where an actual argument got made was left out by accident, but I won't hold my breath waiting for it.
Ellen| 10.21.10 @ 11:15PM
I am very disappointed to see some of these so-called conservatives who are willing to tout Reagan but refuse to acknowledge his 11th commandment- don't speak ill of a fellow Republican. Although Cao did vote for the first health care bill, he DID vote in-line with the Republicans on other major issues, including cap and trade (by the way, 7 Republicans voted for it while Cao voted against... where are the "down with Mark Kirk people now that he's running for Senate in Illinois?").
Joseph Cao is a good man and the personification of the American Dream. He helped rebuild New Orleans East, one of the poorest areas in America, by his own blood, sweat and tears. He is a true public servant.
This is in NO way like Christine O'Donnell. AT ALL. Comparing New Orleans to ANYWHERE is a mistake. Nowhere else has had a Hurricane Katrina, oil spill and the corruption Louisiana has. Cao is a principled and effective leader who is, frankly, one of the few politicians in the city's history to bridge the racial divide and inspire all.
Burt| 10.22.10 @ 12:10AM
Cao has made a few mistakes but he is a self made man and NOLA could do alot worse.
My prays to him and his family on the loss of his day . Another tough cookie who lived thru hell and back.
Jim Swinnen| 10.22.10 @ 9:11AM
I live near New Orleans and work in the city. If I lived in Cao's district I would vote for him, but not with the conviction that he would represent my interests even 60% of the time (with his opponent, I would be lucky if he represented my interests 5% of the time). I would support Cao because he is pro-life when it is an up front issue (his vote on Obamacare notwithstanding) and he is a Republican. I understand that he may view some issues differently from me, but his biggest problem is that he is naive -- in incomprehensible ways for a man as smart as he obviously is. The most telling recent example is his public dismay that Obama endorsed his Black Democrat opponent with a shady past, rather than him. That had to be one of the stupidest reactions anyone could have made. It doesn't take a PhD in PoliSci to figure out where Big O's endorsements will go, but Cao seems to think that being Barry's Bayou Buddy is enough to win him some points at 1600 Penn. Sorry Joe. It doesn't work that way in the hyper-partisan world of Barack Hussein Obama.
Oldefarte| 10.22.10 @ 11:58AM
Since Cao is definately a RINO, I'd [if a resident voter of his district] would vote for a conservative Democrat [I even once voted for a liberal corrupt Democrat in Louisiana over his racist, hatemonger Republican candidate in order to save that moronic state and our country from the embarrashment of electing a KKK member] over him [which is probably impossible]; since he has voted FOR/YES unemployment benefits extensions, AGAINST/NO ending the moratorium on offshore drilling, FOR/YES financial regulation, FOR/YES cash-for-clunkers appropriation, AGAINST/NO for removing NY's Charlie Rangel as Chairman of Ways & Means, etc. Even though I'd probably be labeled here as an 'ignoramous, 'pooh-bah', 'worthless', and a one brain celled/non-compassionate/dangerous, true believing Communist/abortionist by doing so. That said, I feel that currently the most important course of action for conservative American taxpayer-voters is to simply vote THE ENTIRE REPUBLICAN TICKET [and to futuristically begin a process of weeding out the RINOS, liberal Republicans,etc; where possible]. In Louisiana this would include voting for the personally flawed David Vitter [who is a strong conservative and has a voting record to prove it], after he has had both Democrat and Republican factions promoting/funding moronic candidates in opposition to him by imbiciles!!!!!!!!!!
Old Jefferson| 10.22.10 @ 8:21PM
The BIGGEST reason to vote for Cao:
Cedric Richmond
(William Jefferson crony)
franklin baker| 10.24.10 @ 12:18AM
For all Obama followers out there: You guys are the roadblocks that stop our nation from moving forward. The only reason people dont want vote for Cao is simply because of the color of his skin. We dont need any more politicians like Jefferson because of your discrimination against non-blacks can only hurt my city. Its time for a new change-not the kind of Obama change-but the kind of change that makes New Orleans a more diverse city with no black dominance.
Oldefarte| 10.24.10 @ 10:29AM
The only rational reason for voting against Cao is not RACISM [or the color of his skin], but because of his VOTING RECORD [see my above listing of same], and only if he had a conservative candidate [either Republican or Democrat]. Since he does not, the only logical solution at this point is to vote FOR Cao [and if/when a conservative runs against him, to then vote him out of office]!!!!!!!!
franklin baker| 10.24.10 @ 3:41PM
It does not take a fifth grade level to figure out how to choose a true friend of an honest, caring, intelligent, hardworking, open-minded, selfless, and honorary person who has been through hardships and challenges in life. I cannot say enough the superior qualities of Mr Cao. I am hoping that God will wake up many of our citizens (including you) to change the way they think about people who are not black. You have to learn to give credits for a man whose long journey to America and achievements demonstrated what a true hero and leader must be. Its sad how blacks folks view white folks are racists but the reality is that they are the ones who practise discrimination more than any one else. VOTE FOR CAO ALL THE WAY AND THINK OF HIM AS ONE OF YOUR OWN. Its sad and very sad if he doesnt get elected because my vision for the New Orleans future will continue to be in the dark forever and ever.
Oldefarte| 10.25.10 @ 11:45AM
All of which you say about his personal qualities are no doubt true, BUT look at his liberal voting record [included above per my previous post] in favor of the current Democrats' legislation [which is ruining this country at present]!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Kathy Moore| 10.24.10 @ 12:43AM
I am praying to Jesus that Mr Cao will get to keep his seat. God! please please please help Mr Cao to get reelected. God! please do not allow this seat to go to some one else. In God We Trust!
Jorge Perez| 10.24.10 @ 12:52AM
New Orleans without blak dominance? seriously? nah way? maybee we let more mexicans moving in town. hell yeah. leagalise them hell yeah by 2020 mexicans outnumber blaks in town hell yah then let blaks split votes with mex then selekt mexicans wok hard any wei. no let dirtie crooked run new orleans town. no hell no hell no