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Political Hay
In for the Duration
The Florida Senate roster is fixed and Kendrick Meek isn’t going any place.
TAMPA — After some truly remarkable twists and turns, and some political cross-dressing on the part of one candidate, the Florida Senate race has taken on some clarity. The candidates have been defined. The polls are consistent week to week. The undecided have become harder and harder to find. Just as well, with only two weeks left before Election Day and early voting underway.
This situation may be boring for some political writers, who’ve recently tried to gin up a little heavy breathing about the possibility of the Democratic candidate in this race, Congressman Kendrick Meek of Miami, dropping out of the race and supporting independent Governor Charlie Crist. A lot of column inches have been devoted to this highly unlikely event since Stephen Moore of the Wall Street Journal floated the idea in a speculative piece Oct. 8. Crist and his campaign, who think this is swell, have tried to egg the idea on. But don’t hold your breath.
The drop out reasoning goes in this wise: Conservative former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio holds a large lead over both Crist and Meek — the latest Real Clear Politics average of polls shows Rubio with 45 percent, Crist 28.8, and Meek 21. Rubio is ahead because he’s essentially running against two Democrats who are splitting the left to center-left vote. Crist alone would be competitive against Rubio, the dropout crowd says, and some polls confirm this. So better for Meek to quit the race and back Crist in order to prevent a real conservative from winning the Senate seat.
There’s a good deal questionable in this line of reasoning, beginning with the assumption that all Meek voters would automatically switch their allegiance to Crist if Meek were no longer in the race. Let’s look at this one. The first African-American state-wide candidate, who has been campaigning for this seat since before the trash from the Obama inauguration events was cleaned up, who was the first state-wide candidate in Florida to qualify to run by petition, and who beat a really rich white guy in the Democratic primary who spent a ton of his own money, is to be asked now to bugger off because this other white guy has a better chance of beating a Republican most Democrats don’t like.
Nah. First of all, Meek’s presence on the ballot would help black turnout, which would be beneficial to Democratic candidates across the state. Stiffing Meek in this way would do short and long-term damage to Florida Democrats’ relations with blacks, the party’s most reliable constituency. Many blacks would not show up on Election Day to vote for Crist or for other Democrats. And they would resent the party’s treatment of Meek for a long time. Result: Rubio wins anyway, and the Democratic Party of Florida is badly damaged.
Meek has said he won’t drop out. And unlike Crist, who can almost always be relied on to say one thing and then do something else, Meek almost always does what he says he’s going to do. Meek truly dislikes Crist, and with good reason. It’s almost impossible to imagine Meek supporting Crist.
Until April 30 Crist was a Republican trying to compete with Rubio by claiming he was the most conservative guy on the peninsula. After Rubio built up a two to one poll lead over Crist in the primary, Crist bolted the Republican Party saying it had become too conservative for him. He switched all his positions on issues from left to right and started poaching Meek’s supporters.
Crist’s campaign, based on the notion that he will take the best ideas of both parties, has fetched in a few Florida Democratic household names and perhaps a third of Democratic voters say they will vote for him. But in the past two months his standing in the polls has deteriorated as more voters see him as a rank opportunist and Rubio’s conservative campaign is better known. My friend, retired University of South Florida political science professor and popular local talking head Darryl Paulson, calls Crist the Goldilocks candidate. “Crist says Rubio is too far to the right, Meek is too far to the left, but I’m just right.”
It’s not working. Increasingly Florida voters have Crist pegged not as a politician with principled moderate positions, but as a guy who wants so badly to be a U.S. Senator that he will take whatever positions the latest polls tell him he should take.
Two weeks can be a long time in politics. Something may well change in the Florida Senate race. But the lineup isn’t likely to. It appears in the Senate race the Florida Democratic Party will have to try to beat one good Republican with one weak Democrat and one former RINO who will impersonate a Democrat (as he was impersonating a Republican less than six months ago) for only as long as he sees the need to.
About the Author
Larry Thornberry is a writer in Tampa.
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Booger | 10.18.10 @ 6:32AM
From the Campaign Office of Charlie Crist:
Dear Voter/Donor/Constituent/etc.
I would like to take a few moments to explain to you why your vote for me is absolutely vital to the best interests of this great state, and why I am willing to make such great sacrifices on your behalf. I must assure that my campaign is in no way affected, influenced, or beholden to any personal self-interest.
On the issues, I must assure you that I am completely opposed to the implementation of Obamacare, although I do favor putting it into action. I fully oppose the drain on federal and state budgets it imposes, and will work to make sure even more money is pumped into our great state through Obamacare. I oppose cuts in Medicare through Obamacare, and will instead work to cut spending on doctors and medicines, thus making cuts unnecessary.
I am in favor of reducing taxes, and will do so by voting to increase the marginal rates across the board. I will work to curb the deficit and bring more spending to all levels of social services.
As far as social issues go, I am pro-life and will fully support a woman's right to choose partial birth abortion, paid for by Obamacare. I am opposed to gay marriage, and promise to vote against its repeal once implemented through the federal courts. I fully support your right to keep and bear arms, and will make sure that only Congress, state government, and local aldermen are allowed to make laws restricting gun ownership.
If I have your vote I will keep my allegiance to my traditional Republican allies, and support Harry Reid (or Chuck Schumer, if need be) for Senate Majority Leader.
I give you my word I will work only for the best interest of all Floridians, never myself, in everything I do. I will work for the unity of all the people of our great state. And the two guys running against me are ethnic. Do you really think you can trust them?
Sincerely,
Your Future Senator Charlie Crist
Deborah D | 10.18.10 @ 8:11AM
Just like old Charlie -- he never found an issue he couldn't be on both sides of at the same time!
dw| 10.18.10 @ 12:59PM
From the desk of Michael Steele
Chairman of the Republican National Committee
Dear Charlie,
Just a quick note before one of our bus tour events. I wanted to assure you that upon your swearing in as Florida's new Senator, we here at the RNC and your fellow Republican Senators will look forward to welcoming you to our caucus and thereupon working with you to solve the various issues before us.
We are especially transfixed with your genius for establishing a broad vision of political posturing for effect and as you have demonstrated with your imminent election your ability to see all sides of an issue. It is most rewarding to see the voters respond to your way of leadership in such a positive manner. We here at the RNC understand that moving forward often means diluting our values in order to best compromise our principals, so we know you will find a comforting fit within the bowels of our unity.
We are impressed by your rock hard adherance to that stratagem and know that with you on our side our agenda can and will remain influenced by our opponents and as such, we can continue to bask in the warm glow of relativity.
Sincerely,
Michael Steele
RNC Chairman
..............................................................................
From the Desk of Tim Kaine
Chairman of the Democratic National Committee
Dear Charlie,
I just wanted to take a minute, between shows, to express my undying respect for your ability to navigate the treacherous political landscape that has become Florida's present situation.
Your brilliant methodolgy in terms of remaining an enigma to the voters will no doubt result in your election as the next Senator from your great state and, in doing so, serve as a text book study in the art of political misdirection and obfuscation.
We want to offer our premature congratulations knowing the results can not help but favor you. Your fellow Democratic Senators and I wish to enthusiactically welcome you to our caucus and in doing so, assure you of our support in helping you to move forward your vision for Florida as outlined during your election campaign.
We know, with your help, we can move our rivals in the Republican Party further towards our vision of a benovlent, all encompassing government unencumbered by the relative restrictions placed upon it by the constitution.
I have already scheduled for you a meeting with President Obama upon your arrival in Washington, where we can fill you in on what will be required moving forward.
Sincerely,
Tim Kaine
DNC Chairman
GavInTucson| 10.19.10 @ 2:07AM
Booger, I mean Charlie *cough* Charlie, I'm sending you a little memento to put on your desk (at home of course, since you'll be a private citizen soon).
It reads, "Roses are Red, Violets are Blue, I'm a Schizophrenic, And so am I"
Ken (Old Texican)| 10.18.10 @ 8:03AM
Well Booger,
The man could not be more forthright than that, now could he?
The only problem is that many independent voters in FL, ca't quite comprehend compound sentences.
Too many always stop at the comma. (smile)
Mark Shepler- Jupiter FL| 10.18.10 @ 8:05AM
Hey Larry, Geez, great minds think alike! Here's what I wrote in the comments section of Moore's piece A Florida Double Crist? on 10/8:
I'm a native of S. Florida, resident of District 22 (Go Allen West!) and lifelong Republican. After Crist went "Independent" earlier this year I wrote on AmSpec that he would end up fighting with Meek for votes rather than Rubio over conservative votes as so many on our side feared. I also pointed out this whole mess was courtesy of the Republican establishment. First, the FL party, under now indiceted Crist toady Jim Greer, and then the national party endorsed Crist for the Senate long before the primary thus depriving FL Republicans of a voice and choice in who our candidate would be. They couldn't have misread the political winds more if they intended to or were Obama Democrats.
Now, it appears Dems may be preparing to make a similar, stupid mistake thus the fear that Meek will drop out and throw in with Crist to beat Rubio. Fat chance. Official, unequivocal Dem support for Meek has surged in recent weeks with Obama, Bill Clinton and other heavyweights lining up their support and prestige behind Meek. If Crist thought his betrayal would win formal Dem support or at least cause them to remain on the sidelines as seems to be the consensus regarding his strategy, he failed. Professional Dems never trust or respect turncoat Reps even though they encourage the traitors by way of instigating dissension among their Rep opponents, splintering Rep support and scattering Rep campaign forces. They will pay lip service to a RINOs treachery but when crunch time comes they leave the RINO twisting in the wind. Everytime.
Similarly, Democratic rank and file and true-blue liberal voters will always choose a card-carrying comrade over an imitation one any day, something else the RINOS, Crists and Spectors of the world never, ever learn. It is this unfailing support Meek is hoping for, all the polls notwithstanding, or with whom he will defiantly go down with his ship with. And it is also this unfailing loyalty that will work against the Dems and Crist should they strike a truly Machievellian bargain to defeat Rubio.
Should they convince or coerce Meek to abandon the race his withdrawal will only depress the only voting block the Dems can absolutely, positively count on this season- the black vote. Let us remember, Kendrick Meek is the idiot son of FL's version of Maxine Waters, Carrie Meek, who served as a Congresswoman from Liberty City in Miami until 2003. No matter the official Dem line, the majority of blacks will see it as the party abandoning Meek and a stab in the back in favor of the smarmy white guy who's supposedly "more electable". That turn of phrase has the same sting as the "qualifications" argument against affirmative action to that constituency. It is also pure fantasy to believe the rest of the Dem coalition will be inspired enough with this abject and self-negating cynicism to bridge the so-called "enthusiam gap" to turn out for a guy they considered a mortal enemy just a few months ago and who even now is neither officially one of them or even believable in his newfound convictions. It's also just less than two months ago Crist vetoed an education bill he sponsored and promoted that would have severely truncated the education union's power in a crass and blantant bid for support of his newly minted role as "independent". They may have applauded his transparent duplicity but they surely have not forgotten who he was, and is, all along.
Various Dem state party groups may be clamboring for this desperate gambit but I would be very surprised if either the state Dem party or Meek goes for it. I believe they will conclude that the probable cost of discouraging their most loyal troops statewide and the bang-on effect that would have in many other races here is too high to throw in with a guy they know they cannot trust in the first place and who would probably still lose as a result of that very effect in a bid for a seat they didn't hold already in the second.
It's one thing to encourage Crist's betrayal to the Rep's distress but in this most volatile of seasons for Dems, quite another to embrace it and take unto themselves by betraying a loyal son of their most loyal constituency.
Mark Shepler- Jupiter FL| 10.18.10 @ 8:06AM
And then this in reply to a reply:
'"There is no such thing as "unfailing loyalty" in politics". Really? And you actually state that regarding the black vote? If there is anything we could call a certainty in electoral politics it is blacks voting for Dems in general and black Dems in particular. Obama got about 95% and for garden variety Dems the rate is usually around 92% for, ohhh, about the 30 years I've been paying attention. Blacks voting for Dems, especially black Dems, is as sure as the sun rising in the east. Now, given they are the MOST reliable group for Dems for, well forever, why would the Dems want to alienate them this season when they're losing support amongst all the other groups and are struggling in races all over the ticket?
So, you think if Meek is dissed by his party, FL black voters are going to turn out for Crist, a fomer Rep arch enemy just a few months ago, with the same gusto they would for Meek? I mean, not even another Dem, mind you, but Crist? Do you really think they'll rouse themselves to defeat Rubio with the same alacrity they would to support Meek when it means voting for a guy who they thought an evil Rep just the other day? Really? Good luck with that.
The other shaky assumption I think you make is that with Meek out ALL independents will go for Crist. Why is it not likely that some true independents are voicing support for Crist because he "splits the difference" in their minds but once he's the defacto choice of the left and Obama Dems choose Rubio instead? I'm always skeptical of polls that say "if the race were between so and so" because right now it is not that. Once the choices are real is when voters make their choice and it is safe to assume some will jump for Rubio and many more Dems will simply stay home.
Finally, I'm also of the mind that turnout among the apolitical and usually apathetic is under-reported and will surprise all. And they will break against quintessential, sellout, low-life opportunist, careerist, say-anything-to-get-elected incumbents. And in this race who does that describe most accurately? Like it or not Crist has succeeded wildly at making himself the poster child of what's wrong with politicians.
Actually, I'm inclined to hope they will strike a Devil's bargain with Crist. I think it'll suppress enthusiasm and turnout amongst Dems across the board but particularly among black voters and accrue to our benefit. I was right about Crist pulling support from Meek and I'm confident I'll be right about him killing Dem enthusiasm.
Mark Shepler- Jupiter FL| 10.18.10 @ 8:07AM
And finally this which is what is playing out:
On further reflection, I'd say it's a good bet that such a move might incite a backlash among liberal Dems, blacks in particular, who will deliberately vote for Meeks in a show of defiance.
My guess is the FL Dem leaders will decide to let this race run its course. It's not a Dem seat now, they had more or less figured it would go to Crist before he switched and they desperately need turnout for all races up and down the ticket. Turnout is THE issue this season just to keep the coming widespread defeat from disintegrating into a complete rout in disorder all along the line. It's not just numbers of a group that turns out but what proportion of them can a party count on. There is no group more reliable to either party than blacks are to Dems. They cannot afford to alienate this group this year. Crist is an unreliable quantity and has perfectly demostrated he will change positions at the drop of a hat and even party if need be to advance the only thing that matters to him- Charlie Crist. How would they be able to count on him in DC once he's up there and after the Dems have lost control of Congress and Charlie now perceives it's better to hang with the Reps again? They weren't really counting on this seat before, if it remains Rep it doesn't change the Senate balance by itself and so they will conclude they simply cannot afford to discourage the one group they can count on absolutely for a one-time roll in the hay with this strumpet. I'd bet they'll decide to let the chips fall where they may on this one.
Jeff R| 10.18.10 @ 10:20AM
Charlie Crist is a practioner of the second oldest profession in the world: political whoreship.
Crist's going down in flames on November 2 will make the Hindenburg's immolation look small-time by comparison.
Good riddance, Chuckie!
mbd| 10.18.10 @ 11:33AM
The time even to consider this move has past. Ballots have already been printed with Meeks' name, and early voting has begun. Even if Meeks were to withdraw, the presence of his name on the ballots - both the absentee ballots and the voting booth ballots - will still for any of several reasons draw voters to vote for him - including some of those who have not already voted. Consequently, there is no way that Crist could attract all of the twenty or so percent of the voters whom the polls indicate favor Meeks. Assuming that Meeks were to drop out between now and November, Crist would be fortunate to harvest half of that number.
Redstateboy| 10.18.10 @ 11:37AM
what's looking ever more odd these days.. is this almost fanatical - one could say... SS Storm Trooper-like fanaticism of Black voters for the former Slave Party. For 70 years.. Blacks with the most ludicrious loyalty - support - almost with-out question, a Party that uses them for votes and what have they gotten for this??? The almost complete disintergration of the Nuclear Black family? 63% of un-wed Teen Moms are Black, 16% Unemployment? 40% if you're 18-24 and Americas oldest Minority falling farther and farther behind later minority groups... Historians will write about this unswerving loyalty leading to their own destruction as a people.
emo| 10.18.10 @ 6:29PM
Prediction:
Rubio finishes above 50%
Crist finishes 3rd.
suzyq| 10.19.10 @ 3:05PM
oooo...i'd love to see that!!!
Grace| 10.20.10 @ 11:50AM
Don't know if anyone saw the debate last night - but Meek had a poor performance. Rubio, to me, was the clear winner.