The American Spectator : Marty Lamb's Lucky Break

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Marty Lamb's Lucky Break

By Robert Stacy McCain on 10.15.10 @ 6:08AM

A Democrat's gaffe helps a Republican underdog.

BOSTON -- Tina Hood of Worcester said "it blew my mind" when she heard her congressman say, "I think the Constitution is wrong."

Rep. Jim McGovern later called his statement a "slip of the tongue," but to Ms. Hood -- a citizen who questioned the Democrat during a debate Wednesday night at Shrewsbury High School -- it seemed more like a contradiction of his oath of office.

McGovern's words were one of those campaign moments that no one could predict, and which might conceivably change the outcome in Massachusetts' 3rd District. The seven-term incumbent was expressing his disagreement with Supreme Court decisions that have voided key elements of federal campaign-finance laws when he uttered the blunt six-word sentence. This seemed to fit Michael Kinsley's definition of a "gaffe" as what happens when a politician accidently speaks the truth. McGovern's notions of unbounded federal authority -- not merely in campaign finance regulation, but in nearly everything -- cause conservatives to doubt the Democrat's fealty to the Constitution.

Whatever McGovern meant to say Wednesday, what he actually said was said in front of video cameras and quickly spread via YouTube. It got McGovern's Republican opponent Marty Lamb mentioned on Mark Levin's nationally syndicated radio program and resulted in Lamb being interviewed Thursday on Howie Carr's popular Boston talk-radio show.

Gaffes, blunders, scandals -- such are the unpredictable events of this election season, now being played out in hundreds of congressional districts nationwide. Whereas pollsters and pundits often speak of elections as if they were describing inexorable impersonal trends, the trends are merely the accumulation of multiple data points like McGovern's debate statement. Similar data points have been unusually profuse lately in Massachusetts. In the 4th District, Rep. Barney Frank is reeling from the revelation that he took a free trip to the Virgin Islands aboard a private jet owned by a hedge fund billionaire. In the 6th District, Rep. John Tierney is on the defensive after his wife Patricia pleaded guilty to four federal felony counts in a case involving her brother, a fugitive gambling kingpin. These events add to a perception -- increasingly prevalent even among Massachusetts voters who have been loyally liberal for decades -- that members of Congress are out of touch, over-privileged, and quite possibly corrupt. Because all of Massachusetts' 10 House seats are held by Democrats, if voters here are in a mood to "throw the bums out," that kind of anti-incumbent mood spells Republican victories. No one, however, is prepared yet to predict that the GOP will win any of these Massachusetts seats, not even in the 10th District, which Scott Brown carried with 60 percent of the vote in a January special U.S. Senate election.

Although many prognosticators have declared a clear trend toward Republicans nationwide -- there now seems to be a consensus among commentators that the GOP will gain the 40 seats necessary to end the speakership of Nancy Pelosi -- most district-by-district breakdowns are still clearly within the margins of error.

Last night, Boston-based conservative blogger Garrett Quinn summed up the fundamental problem in a Twitter message: "Based on all the polls in the last 48 hours we can conclude that nobody has any idea what will happen." Quinn appeared to be referencing the Massachusetts gubernatorial race, where the latest poll showed Republican challenger Charlie Baker up by 5 points, shortly after another poll showed Democrat Gov. Deval Patrick ahead by 7 points.

The problem is not merely that different pollsters report starkly different numbers, nor is the problem limited to Massachusetts. Less than three weeks before Election Day, there is no reliable turnout model nor sufficient confidence in poll results for anyone to say who will win or lose on Nov. 2. And nowhere are the problems of polling and predictions more obvious than in congressional races.

Unlike statewide elections for Senate or governor -- where hotly contested races may be surveyed by multiple polling firms during the course of a single week -- surveys of House districts by public pollsters are few and far between. Most House races are only polled by private firms hired by campaigns or identifiably partisan sponsors and, when these "internal" polls are made public, the results must be taken with a grain of salt. Even if internal polls are conducted by reputable polling firms, there are usually enough undecided voters in the sample to render the numbers of dubious value as predictors of Election Day results. So long as neither candidate is consistently polling above 50 percent, the race is still up for grabs, and this is the case in most of the closely watched congressional districts that analysts consider "competitive."

Pundits endlessly analyze polls and trends, but polls and trends do not win elections. Campaigns win elections and, for most Republican congressional challengers this year, the unfortunate reality is that their campaigns are shockingly underfunded by comparison to the Democratic incumbents they hope to unseat.

Democrats have raised indignant objections to election spending by conservative groups, claiming that right-wing billionaires, big corporations and "secret foreign donors" are trying to "steal" the election. Yet the fact is that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, with a reported $39 million cash on hand, has a nearly $14 million advantage over its GOP counterpart, the National Republican Congressional Committee. That makes a huge difference for incumbents like Jim McGovern, who need not fear that the NRCC will pay to air TV ads highlighting his debate gaffe. And despite allegations that "secret foreign donors" are funding the GOP, candidates like Marty Lamb are scraping by with small online donations and mostly volunteer campaign operations.

Nevertheless, McGovern's miscue was the kind of lucky break the underdog Republican challenger needed and, while no one can predict whether it will enable Lamb to score a Nov. 2 upset, no one can guarantee it won't. Campaigns win elections, and there are still 18 days of campaigning to go until Election Day.

About the Author

Robert Stacy McCain is co-author (with Lynn Vincent) of Donkey Cons: Sex, Crime, and Corruption in the Democratic Party (Nelson Current). He blogs at The Other McCain.

Letter to the Editor View all comments (25) | Leave a comment

A. C. Santore| 10.15.10 @ 9:35AM

No-one has yet said whether Rep. Barney Frank took a [stuck for a respectful word here, so I'll go with "companion"] companion along with him on that "personal" trip to the Virgin Islands.

And since when does a very expensive gift, characterized as "personal," when given in exchange for a political favor, make that political favor or the "personal" gift O.K.?

This kind of slippery stuff makes "situational ethics" look Draconian by comparison.

JOHN fENNEY| 10.15.10 @ 12:26PM

Barney took his partner, who lives in Maine Rep. Chellie Pingree who announced her engagement (to the billionaire who provided the private jet) shortly after the disclosures of HER travels on it. The couples are friends, but the billionaire recieved 200 M in govt. bailout money. Can't have the beautiful people traveling with the unwashed masses.

Doug| 10.15.10 @ 4:38PM

Had Newt or DeLay been on that jet in the 90s, does anyone think it would elicit a simple "what's the big deal?" response from the dems?

Longplay| 10.15.10 @ 10:37AM

What's the big f***ing deal about mcGovern? He was only echoing Barack Obama's opinion of Constitution's Bill of Rights. Unfortunately for the GOP, the issue of campaign finance "reform" wouldn't be the big issue it is without assists from Mr. McCain and George Bush who, though he thought McCain-Feingold unconstitutional, signed it anyway. It you swear to uphold the Constitution, you'd darned well better do it.

Al Adab| 10.15.10 @ 11:05AM

Correct you are Longplay. These people are all foresworn through their oath of office. All branches, and the individuals holding those offices are under oath to preserve, protect and defend the Constituion- not the government.

We voters had better demand a little more from those we choose to serve us.

CalMark| 10.15.10 @ 2:09PM

In case you haven't been paying attention, not too many George W. Bush fans among AmSpec readers, and even fewer (I would even say FAR fewer) John McCain fans.

Sam Vaughn| 10.17.10 @ 4:45PM

ditto

cr| 10.15.10 @ 2:30PM

all part of the ruling class
RIDE
remove incumbent deadbeats everywhere

GeeBee| 10.15.10 @ 4:47PM

Stalin was called "Uncle Joe".

Obama has siad that he wouldn't mind if his daughters had abortions. That is, if his grandchildren were dismembered. Let's call him "Grandpa Obama"!

RCV| 10.15.10 @ 5:17PM

Give us the actual quote, GeeBee

pete the mediocre| 10.16.10 @ 12:09AM

"I've got two daughters. 9 years old and 6 years old. I am going to teach them first of all about values and morals. But if they make a mistake, I don't want them punished with a baby. "

How's that for a BHB quote, RCV?

RCV| 10.16.10 @ 11:54PM

He was speaking at the time about sexual education in High School, and the encouragement of the use of condoms to prevent the spread of STDs and unwanted pregnancies, not abortion. Here's the full quote: "I am going to teach them first of all about values and morals. But if they make a mistake, I don't want them punished with a baby. I don't want them punished with an STD at the age of 16. You know, so it doesn't make sense to not give them information."

Jack Bauer| 10.15.10 @ 5:54PM

Barney always likes it when someone else pays top dollar for his virgin trystes.

pace Madonna

Like a virgin, buggered for the very first time

MassInsurrection| 10.15.10 @ 8:07PM

Living in his district,
I don't think that it was a slip of the tongue by McGovern. I sincerely think he actually believes that it (the Constitution) is wrong. I think he was speaking his mind.

Just another example of the typical Mass Brahman elitist attitude.

The guy votes and supports nearly everything under the sun which undermines the Constitution.

Among other things (and there are plenty), He's been heard suggesting that our health care model *should* be like Cuba's. (He) Voted against de-funding Acorn (even Frank voted for that). Right on to accusations (I've not looked into it myself) that he is helping FARC. His associations with Castro...this guy simply goes out of his way to support any Latin American Communist or Socialist leader or movement.

Simply put, there is just too much swirling around this guy to make me get any "tingle down my leg". With his outpouring of supporting anything socialist, I find it hard to believe that he can comprehend anything Constitutional.

I would say the man is Pelosi's Puppet, but he is Left of EVEN HER.

Enough of his record, let's look at his customer service:
The guy cannot even return phone calls to constituents (email, forum letter??) , cancels town hall meetings (denying his constituents access to him).
I guess you have to live in the Worcester area and be a campaign donor for him to even consider talking with you.

He's not getting my vote.

Martine| 10.17.10 @ 10:59AM

McGovern is a Pelosi poodle.

OldBat| 10.15.10 @ 8:52PM

Marty Lamb can win this. Many people of the 3rd District are fed up. Jim Mcgovern has been dubbed "the most radical man in Congress." Mcgovern is being WELL financed by the Democrat party, and Lamb has had very little help from the establishment GOP. PLEASE SEND A CONTRIBUTION to MARTY LAMB and as many other Republican challengers as you can, whether or nor they represent your district. A little can add up to alot. "Together we can" throw the bums out!

pete the mediocre| 10.16.10 @ 12:10AM

With a name like McGovern, what would you expect?

MassInsurrection| 10.16.10 @ 12:14AM

I McDunno, But one thing is for certain...This guy gives us no McBreaks

JimmyT| 10.16.10 @ 1:11PM

It is not surprising that the NRCC is lagging behind the DCCC in funding. But, look at the money the non-profit conservative orgs are taking in and spending in favor of conservative candidates. Look at the money the conservative candidates themselves are taking in to spend on their own campaigns. I don't think a lack of funds will be the downfall of conservative candidates. If they fail, it will be because they weren't good candidates. And, the reason no one can get a handle on what will happen 11/2/10 is this is a very different election. The people are actively involved this time around. Therefore, I will make all my predictions on who will win on 11/3/10.

Paul Nelson| 10.17.10 @ 12:05AM

I suppose is is very premature to make predictions on who will win on 11/3/10. Al Franken stole his election months after the votes were cast. As Uncle Joe Stalin supposedly said "People who cast votes decide nothing--people who count votes decide everything."

mari| 10.17.10 @ 11:00AM

If it isn't close, they can't steal it. VOTE!!!

M. Thatcher| 10.16.10 @ 11:49PM

Writer omits a significant fact when reporting: "the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, with a reported $39 million cash on hand, has a nearly $14 million advantage over its GOP counterpart, the National Republican Congressional Committee." THOUSANDS of us are going around the NRCC. After the O'Donnell debacle, I'll never give them a dime.

Debbie Munoz| 10.20.10 @ 11:43AM

Marty Lamb CAN win this!! MA and The U.S. deserves a decent man like Marty in Congress. It's best that McGovern should be defeated and move to Venezuela or Cuba than to make the U.S. a model after his mentors' countries!