At the time Kim Jong-eun, third son of Kim Jong-il, was
made a four-star general in North Korea last month, the only photo
the world had of him was a mug shot of a pleasant-looking school
boy. Now that the Korean Workers Party has had its first Congress
in 30 years, all of its officials have posed for a photo and there
is Kim Jong-eun in the front row. He wears a plain tunic, is pudgy
and full-faced, about 27 years old, and has the blank look
apparently required of all North Korean officials when group photos
are taken. Then yesterday we saw him appear
live on state television for the first time.
It was in 1980 when Kim Jong-il, the “Dear Leader” and
current dictator of the isolated country, was introduced by Kim
Il-Sung, “The Great Leader,” as his heir. As it turned out, that
gave him 14 years of on-the-job training before his father’s death
put him in the top position.
Kim Jong-eun may have less time, considering the
uncertainty of Kim Jong-il’s health. It appears that an accelerated
on-the-job-training period has been devised for the young man. The
Kims have long followed a doctrine called songun, or
military first, putting the needs of generals over those of party
officials. Making Kim Jong-eun and Kim Jong-il’s sister, Kim Kyong
Hui, four-star generals in the Korean People’s Army is a tip of the
hat to military leaders. In addition, it solidifies family ties for
a transition, for Kim Kyong Hui’s husband, Chang Song-taek, was
steadily elevated last year until he was elected to the country’s
most powerful body, the National Defense Commission. There, he
oversees the Ministry of Public Security and the State Security
Department, very powerful positions.
It doesn’t take much speculation to see Chang and his wife
as mentors to young Kim. The party Congress also made Kim Jong-eun
a member of the party’s Central Committee and vice-chairman of the
Central Military Commission. The latter, despite the high-sounding
name, is several notches down the ladder from the National Defense
Commission. Thus, it appears that these initial appointments are
intended to give young Kim working-level experience under the
tutelage of his uncle, aunt, and senior generals.
That these developments have been long in the planning
stage seems to be substantiated by the circumstances of Chang
Song-taek’s rise. In the months leading to his election to the
National Defense Commission, several senior members of the
hierarchy suddenly died or retired. We cannot know, but it is
possible they had been balking at the plan to pave the way for
dynastic succession and had to be removed.
If and when the “The Young General” is handed the reins of
government, what will they be worth? Famine is an ever-present
specter and increased international sanctions can cripple the
country’s revenue stream. If they are fully effective they could
stop its main revenue sources: weapons sales to third world
countries and currency counterfeiting. Its nuclear weapons program,
intended to pressure the U.S. and its allies into making periodic
gifts of food and energy supplies, is not expected to slow down
during the transition. Pak Kil-yon, North Korea’s vice foreign
minister, told the UN General Assembly the other day, “As long as
nuclear aircraft carrier sail around the seas of our country, our
nuclear deterrent can never be abandoned, but should be
strengthened further.” In due course, expect this to be followed by
calls for talks, talks, then some sort of agreement (later to be
broken by North Korea) and the food will flow. Meanwhile, the pudgy
“Young General” enjoys the beginning of his climb to the
top.
Mr. Hannaford is a member of the Committee on the
Present Danger.
