BOSTON — A strange wind is blowing in Massachusetts. Or maybe
it’s a red tide. Just over the past few weeks, there have been
signs that the Democratic Party cannot necessarily take the
homeland of Ted Kennedy, John Kerry, and Michael Dukakis for
granted.
Consider: The polls show Republican gubernatorial nominee
Charlie Baker closing in on Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick. At least
one survey shows Patrick’s lead within the margin of error.
Independent gubernatorial candidate Tim Cahill has lost his
Republican running mate and campaign manager, possibly paving the
way for Baker to consolidate the center-right vote.
Patrick hasn’t been within shouting distance of 50 percent in
recent memory. Baker and Cahill combined have regularly outpolled
him for months. Deval was the first Democratic governor since
Dukakis. After that Massachusetts miracle, it took 20 years to
elect another.
Fourteen-term Democratic Congressman Barney Frank isn’t in Deval
Patrick territory yet, but he’s clearly running scared. He has
already had to call Bill Clinton into Massachusetts to campaign for
him. Republican Sen. Scott Brown carried his congressional district
in January’s special election. A mid-September poll showed
35-year-old political neophyte Sean Bielat trailing Frank by just
10 points. When I met with Bielat at CPAC earlier this year, he
told me that getting Frank to spend time and campaign money in the
district — rather than helping other Democrats nationwide — would
be progress.
State Rep. Jeff Perry is receiving national Republican support
in his run for the open seat in Massachusetts’ tenth district,
meaning the party sees it as a prime pickup opportunity. The Young
Gun has perhaps the most potent political operation on Cape Cod and
recently won a landslide victory over a former statewide elected
official in the GOP primary. Brown carried the district with over
60 percent of the vote.
Brown, of course, is the Republican currently keeping Ted
Kennedy’s Senate seat warm. His example reminded people that
Republicans can win in Massachusetts, even though it is the bluest
of states.
It’s happened before. In 1990, Republicans swept the
governorship, lieutenant governorship, and state treasurer’s
office. They won enough seats in the state legislature to sustain
the new governor’s vetoes. In 1992, Republicans followed up by
winning two congressional seats. They may well have won a third if
the Democratic incumbent hadn’t lost his primary. Republicans held
all these gains in 1994 and gave Kennedy a scare.
Republicans held the governor’s mansion for 16 straight years,
winning four straight elections. But the attempt to turn
Massachusetts into a two-party state failed. William Weld won two
terms, the second with 71 percent of the vote, but ran
unsuccessfully for U.S. Senate in 1996 and then left the
commonwealth in a quixotic attempt to become Bill Clinton’s
ambassador to Mexico over Jesse Helms’ objections.
Paul Cellucci won a tough gubernatorial election in 1998, a bad
year for Republicans nationally. But the party forfeited the state
treasurer’s office when Joe Malone decided to run against Cellucci
rather than seek reelection. And Cellucci decided to become George
W. Bush’s ambassador to Canada rather than finish his term.
Mitt Romney was victorious in 2002, shunting aside unelectable
acting Gov. Jane Swift. But he made only one serious attempt to
increase the number of Republicans in the state legislature. When
that effort failed, Romney decided against a second term and ran
for president instead.
The moral of this story: there is a constituency in
Massachusetts willing to contemplate two-party government, but no
one has stayed around long enough to cultivate it. The Republican
Party as it exists in the Bay State is in no shape to offer much of
an alternative to the Democratic status quo.
Could that be changing? A center-right majority can be assembled
in this Democratic state. Weld, Cellucci, Romney, and Brown showed
that. It isn’t a huge majority — except for Weld’s reelection,
they all polled in the low 50s — but it is enough to win
elections. When statewide races get close, Democrats tend to
lose.
On ballot initiatives, Massachusetts voters have also frequently
displayed a conservative bent. Referenda capping property taxes,
cutting the state income tax rate, ending rent control, eliminating
bilingual education, and passing term limits have passed. A measure
creating a graduated state income tax failed. Another abolishing
the income tax entirely won 45 percent of the vote in 2002, though
it was more resoundingly defeated six years later. The political
class has worked overtime to keep both racial preferences and
same-sex marriage off the ballot.
There is, of course, no opportunity so great that the Republican
Party can’t blow it. That’s true throughout the country, but it is
an even greater likelihood in Massachusetts, where the Stupid Party
frequently lives up to its nickname. But eventually, taxpayers get
tired of shouldering the burden. The anger that elected Scott Brown
hasn’t subsided and his win may not be an anomaly.
