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Special Report
Blue States See Red Over Redistricting
Democrats are on the verge of losing electoral votes before a single 2012 vote is cast.
A new study has blue states seeing red.
Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania will likely each lose a congressional seat in redistricting. New York and Ohio should lose two seats.
The U.S. Census Bureau releases its official count this December, and this final tally, and not the Election Data Services, Inc.’s projection based on preliminary counts, will determine the reapportionment in effect for the 2012 elections.
Conspicuously, states that voted for Barack Obama in 2008 are projected to lose eleven of those twelve subtracted seats. Conspicuously, states that voted for John McCain are expected to gain ten of the twelve new seats. Should Election Data Services, Inc.’s numbers hold up, Texas would gain four seats, Florida would add two, and Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah, and Washington would each claim a new seat.
Red states are gaining political clout at the expense of blue states. This makes the electoral map an even more elusive puzzle for President Obama to solve in 2012.
Eleven electoral votes that he won in 2008 will be erased from his column (and one added). The states that voted for McCain will have ten electoral votes in 2012 they didn’t have in 2008 (with two lost). With all other factors remaining the same, if the 2008 presidential election were held under the projected reapportionment, Barack Obama would win 356 instead of 365 electoral votes and John McCain would win 182 instead of 173 electoral votes. One way of looking at this is that, although not a single ballot has been cast for 2012, Republicans are already up eighteen electoral votes from where they were in the last presidential election. And this is to say nothing of the conservative resurgence, liberal disappointment, and disaffection of independents that puts the president in a more precarious spot for 2012 than he was in 2008.
The coming reapportionment also diminishes the power of Democrat-leaning states in the House of Representatives. This benefit to Republicans may be mitigated in part by the fact that Democrat-controlled legislatures will skillfully attempt to gerrymander Republicans out of their seats. Unlike the Electoral College, in which a state generally awards its votes en masse to the presidential winner, states generally send Republicans and Democrats to Washington. And just one lost seat comes from a state (Missouri) where Republicans currently control both houses of the state legislature, the institution which, save for New Jersey where a bipartisan commission determines redistricting, will redraw political boundaries for states in relative decline. So, in the short term, the congressional boon to Republicans may not be as pronounced as the presidential one.
What reapportionment says about the future is perhaps less interesting than what it says about the present.
Red states are gaining population relative to blue states because of the divergence in policy. Jobs, and thus people, flock to red states because they are generally easier places to do business. If the states are, as Justice Brandeis posited, laboratories of democracy, then places such as New York, which will have lost sixteen electoral votes since 1960, and Massachusetts, which will have gone from fourteen to nine seats in those five decades, must be considered failed experiments.
Eight of the twelve migrating seats will arrive in income-tax-free states. Conversely, all of the states losing seats impose an income tax. Put another way, two-thirds of the added seats will go to the less than one-fifth of states that do not have an income tax and one-hundred percent of the lost seats come from states that impose an income tax.
Similarly, all of the redistricted seats, save for a lone congressional district added in Washington, will go to right-to-work states. Ten of twelve lost seats derive from forced unionism states. This comes despite the fact that a majority of Americans reside in the twenty-six effectively closed-shop states.
Obviously, there are countless other political variables at work. And policy is just one causal agent influencing where a person chooses to live or how many kids a couple decides to have. But such a disproportionate population boom for low-tax, open-shop red states, and a relative population exodus from high-tax, union-shop blue states, surely issues a damning verdict on big government.
Republicans stand poised to win governorships, state legislatures, and House and Senate seats on Election Day. The good news for Republicans is that the bad news for Democrats doesn’t end on November 2.
About the Author
Daniel J. Flynn is the author of Blue Collar Intellectuals: When the Enlightened and the Everyman Elevated America. He blogs at www.flynnfiles.com.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (74) | Leave a comment
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Bob K.| 10.1.10 @ 7:23AM
It is about time some one wrote about this! This redistricting should have been emphasized long ago.
Where have all the pundits been?
Petronius| 10.1.10 @ 7:32AM
As if this would do conservatives in the affected areas any good? Last reapportionment lead to permanent relegation for us. The GOP let Dickless Gephart draw his own district because they don't want us for constituents. If we lose a seat this year, we will get stuck with Commissar Clay. Game over.
Bob K.| 10.1.10 @ 7:45AM
? ? ? ? ?
Matt| 10.3.10 @ 8:52PM
He is talking about Missouri. Local Missouri Politics. I understand exactly what he is referring to, I grew up in MO and now live MI, wish I was back in MO, but anyway, family still down in the Show Me and I know what he is talking about.
Redstateboy| 10.1.10 @ 8:44AM
As Lenin was quoted as saying: "They're Voting with their Feet." I've yelling from the Rooftops for years... Look!!! Look at the Failure that is Liber-ulism and the Slave Party!! Their Cities: Buffalo, Kill-a-delphia, Washington, D.C., Chicago, Los Angeles, Detriot, St. Louis.. Their States: California, Washington, The People's Republics of New York, Michigan... ALL of New England... Abject Failures.. They're Broke, They're in debt, there aren't any frigg'n Jobs, High Taxes, lousy Schools (only 50% of Chicago H.S. Sr.s will come out w/a Diploma!) and YET!!! People still cast their votes for the Slave Party!!
And what really fries me... and gives me pause to completely buy in to Daniel's Rosy scanario is this... Liber-uls and Democrats.. Who've Screwed up their States Soooooo bad that Even They can't stand it.. Then come down to our Red States - like Tennessee - and begin to do what?!!! Scream that our State is too Conservative and that we need to elect...... Wait for it......... More Democrats!! They are too Bloody Stupid to even get that the very reason they're in a New State in the first place is that their own personal Political Philosophy is Bankrupt! I actually ran in to a Liber-ul - living in Nashville - from some pathetic Liber-ul Hell hole I don't remember - Yammering how much she hated Nashville.. when I asked her then why she was there... She answered it was because their was a Job for her there where there weren't any in the Blue State she left!!! I told her to go back to where she F'n slithered from.
Richard| 10.1.10 @ 11:16AM
Amen! In the little town in Wyoming near where I live a family of liberals from some blue state hell hole moved in. One of them is trying to talk the town and school into a re-cycling program and one of them was all for allowing the child welfare dept. determine who could be day care providers(i.e. you can't hire grandma to watch your kids!)
Eric Cartman| 10.1.10 @ 2:10PM
I hope the good folks let the Liberals know that they have a choice: Live here our way or go back to Libtopia where they escaped from. You have to explain it to them in no uncertain terms - usually while you are holding a bat with a spike through the end of it in your hand.
Tyler S.| 10.3.10 @ 3:38PM
Yeah, about that rediculous "love it or leave it" mentality you conservatives won't stop spouting. Unless I've missed something, the current government of this country leans liberal. In the last two elections, liberals have fared far better. You can talk about the next election being a potential landslide your way but its still very unlikely that the dems will lose both houses of congress, meaning they keep the upper house and the executive. So, by your own rules, shouldn;t you have left OUR country by now? Seriously, get out, we're sick of you. Go back to that one country that actually has a successful government like the one you want (you know, the one that doesn't exist?).
Eric Cartman| 10.4.10 @ 2:08AM
Ooooooo! Tiny Tyler has his little panties all scrunched up in a knot, now doesn't he? Yes you do! Yes you do! Who is da widdle man wit da scrunchy panties? Widdle scrunchy, scrunchy?
Ya know, Ty baby, it's only going to get worse for you here. Maybe you should go to a country you would like better - France, maybe? Weak military, check. Overrun with illegal aliens, check. "Free" medical, check. High taxes, socialist, high unemployment, check! Check! Check!
We will start dismantling your socialist schemes and dreams November, 2nd. Why watch such a terrible thing, Ty? Bye, bye!
idalily| 10.7.10 @ 3:53PM
You have missed something. The ability to read. A poll, that is. All leading polls have said again and again a majority of Americans DO NOT consider themselves as Liberals. Also, if the Dem leadership is an indicator, Dems believe we are a Democracy, not a Republic, which shows they don't know squat about our country or what it stands for. It's our country, and yours, too, so try to educate your leaders to understand what that country IS, please. Lessons for all Dems in what our Constitution says would be good, too. OTOH, when Republicans take both houses of Congress, you could just move to France. They'll love you. Honest.
Big Leo| 10.1.10 @ 3:23PM
As we say here in Arizona, we're happy to have you move here, but don't bring California with you.
Redstateboy| 10.1.10 @ 3:29PM
Well put.. snide condescending Liber-ul Elites look down their noses at Red States - particularly the South - but I tell you - As an escapee from that People's Republic of New York Gulag.. The people of the South are very nice, polite, Christian - all the things that drive Liber-uls absolutely nuts - is found down here.. Patriotism, Love of God, Country, Guns, NASCAR.. And Everyone's Welcome.. Just leave the Liber-ulist BS where you came from!
Tyler S.| 10.3.10 @ 3:44PM
Riiiiight, so all this Quran burning, gay bashing, frothing at the mouth, hitler name calling, hate-monging I see from "southern christians" must actually be libs in disguise out to smear your good names. Or did you perchance mean for your claim of polite kindness to only extend to those who share your views?
Smiler T.| 10.4.10 @ 6:15AM
Coming from Satanic Bible-burning, family-hostile, drooling-from-every-orifice, hate-mongering commie traitor parasites like yourself, Tyler, that's pretty hypocritical rhetoric. Nice public school education you've got on display there, I might add, leftard.
TR| 10.1.10 @ 4:31PM
Same for Nevada. They come here to escape the failure that is liberal California, and immediately start pushing for California rules. I say either melt-in here (no desert pun intended) or get back to the California Soviet Socialist Republic post haste!
RCV| 10.1.10 @ 6:38PM
TR - Nevada isn't exactly booming these days, either.
GavInTucson| 10.2.10 @ 3:44AM
Unfortunately, I don't think Tucson's ever gotten the memo on this slogan. If you look at Pima county, she almost always falls into the blue category (up and down the electoral spectrum).
Thank God Phoenix usually provides more than a counter-balance to the liberalism that is Tucson. For the bigger races, Phoenix generally pushes the state right-of-center.
I at least have that going for me when I pull the lever for the "right" candidate in this town of liberal car-crazies.
Mark James| 10.2.10 @ 3:10PM
We've had a slogan here in Utah for decades "Don't Californicate Utah"
Tyler S.| 10.3.10 @ 3:40PM
Of course, the slogan was stolen from Oregon, who first used it to object to the commercialism california tourists were bringing to their state.
Kevin Riley O'Keeffe | 10.2.10 @ 5:37AM
"one of them was all for allowing the child welfare dept. determine who could be day care providers(i.e. you can't hire grandma to watch your kids!)"
That's a pretty horrific example of meddling, liberal cocksuckery, but what, may I ask, is objectionable to a recycling program?
Robert Pinkerton| 10.2.10 @ 1:21PM
I, for one, am not persuaded that recycling programs are anything other than upper-middle-class superstitious affectations.
mike Johnston| 10.2.10 @ 1:37PM
In Fayetteville NC they started a major recycling push to "save money". They are going broke and the city keeps pumping money into it to keep it going. The rules call for all items to be cleaned prior to putting them in the bin. It wastes more water and electricity than you can get back.
wodiej| 10.3.10 @ 12:29PM
In many towns including my own, the recycling is considered mandatory. Every household is provided a recycling bin for paper and one for plastic, glass etc. Every two weeks you have to sit it at the curb. You can't put it out earlier than the day before and you must stow them after pick up or THE CITY WILL FINE YOU. On top of that, there is a recycling fee added to our trash pick up bill and the city gets to keep the money generated from recycling as well as federal incentives. Nice huh? I recycle just because I see no reason not to but many won't.
Bob K.| 10.1.10 @ 8:57AM
To do this right, you have to hold or win the Governor's race and control both houses of the legislature otherwise there will be many deals made.
Some times this isn't a bad idea. Consider what has happened to California since the Democrats were able to totally control redistricting.
Deborah D | 10.1.10 @ 9:04AM
Then you have that liberal (of course) Jerry Nadler from that liberal (of course) state NY, proposing that people from those states where the cost of living (like liberal, of course, NY) shouldn't have to pay as much in federal taxes as those in states with a lower cost of living!! Why the H*ll do you think your cost of living is higher in NY, Jerry? Your taxes, your regulations, your idiocy is why. If he has his way, the red states will be supporting the blue states so they won't have any reason to leave. Income redistribution taken to the state level. Yeah, that's the ticket.
Ramon 51| 10.1.10 @ 9:31AM
Jerry Nadler has obviously never read the Constitution which requires that all taxes imposed by the Feds be imposed at a uniform rate across the states. But then...most liberals haven't bothered to read the 'deeply flawed' document. Just ask BHO.
Richard| 10.1.10 @ 11:18AM
In the words of Pelosi: "Are your serious, are you serious?"
joli| 10.1.10 @ 7:01PM
Thank you for getting that right! Even Mr. Codevilla quoted it as "Are you kidding? Are you kidding?"
Al Adab| 10.1.10 @ 11:51AM
Some states use 'independant" commissions to draw the district lines. Still the plans have to be approved through other action. Lots of ways to skin a cat.
Anthony| 10.1.10 @ 9:45AM
The Ds and ACORN will have something to say about redistricting. Don't think for a moment this past census wasn't about creating artificial numbers in blue cities and states to insure that this will not happen.
Kevin Riley O'Keeffe | 10.2.10 @ 5:41AM
How the Hell is ACORN going to have any influence on the redistricting process? That's just stupid.
Elbert Gerry| 10.1.10 @ 10:10AM
This article demonstrates the need for "Electoral College Reform.
Bruce Berger| 10.1.10 @ 10:47AM
EG,
Be more specific please.
Kevin Riley O'Keeffe | 10.2.10 @ 5:42AM
The Electoral College is perfect the way it is. I would help to vote out anyone who seriously suggested it be altered in any way.
PattyMor| 10.1.10 @ 10:58AM
This data is very telling--Blue states are failing and
Red states are thriving. Yet people still vote in
people who continually raise their taxes and strangle business. Facts do not matter to these people. People had the internet available, with all its information at their fingertips, yet they still fell for the "Hope and Change" mantra and
fainted in the aisle.
Al Adab| 10.1.10 @ 11:28AM
Redistricting will indeed create a new scenario. We may ask however why representation is limited to 435. Any number would suffice. What would be the proper number of constituents for each Rep.? Still it bodes well for Conservatives.
About seven states and the D. C. have passed electoral legislation to award the state electoral votes to the winner of the Presidential national popular vote. Just think how Mass. will feel when they have to deliver their electoral votes to a Republican. The earth will shake.
Daniel Latinus| 10.2.10 @ 10:26PM
Believe it or not, the reason the House of Representatives is fixed at 435 members is because that is (supposedly) the maximum number of seats that can be provided for said representatives.
EnMass| 10.5.10 @ 1:37AM
Greetings from Mass.
(I'm one of the good guys...considering applying for political asylum to one of those red states)
If I understand that law correctly (awarding the electoral votes based on popular vote), the State Legislature can vote (aka opt) to change this (up to a certain date)
So let's say the D's chances at the Oval office look really bad...well the State Legislature can change it back to how it was. (IF I remember correctly) So its easily manipulated one way or the other by them.
..heh, and let me just tell you...guess how many Republicans we have in state legislature (you can count them on 2 hands) (Hopefully that number changes in a few weeks)
George S| 10.1.10 @ 12:31PM
It's not just about the numbers. If red states are gaining at the expense of blue, then what's to say all those gains are Republican voters? To me, it makes more sense that people are fleeing blue states because of their oppressive liberal local governments and the ones that are fleeing are those who voted in those governments. So one day, all those transplanted liberals will look at their new home state legislatures and say "you're not doing enough to save the planet, to provide health care, to shelter the homeless, or to make the rich pay their fair share."
It happened to California, Vermont and Pennsylvania. How many liberal states turned conservative over the past 50 years?
Texas Mom 2010| 10.1.10 @ 2:16PM
The thought of being out-numbered down here by invading libs keeps me up at night.
It also reminds me of the old saw, "what's the difference between a Yankee (liberal) and a DamnYankee(liberal)? DamnYankees (libs) stay here! FYI it's a JOKE!
vman77| 10.1.10 @ 4:35PM
No, it's not a joke. Texans are the most annoying people I've ever met.
Al Adab| 10.1.10 @ 5:01PM
Gee vman, I was thinking of asking Texas Mom if she would object to a couple legal immigrants.
Brian| 10.3.10 @ 5:50AM
Well, then stay the H*ll out of my state, and take all your d*mn yankee turncoat friends with you. You need us a lot more than we need or want you. If it weren't for Texas, two thirds of the US military wouldn't be in uniform and you wouldn't have a country to destroy or the liberty to destroy it.
Kevin Riley O'Keeffe | 10.2.10 @ 5:44AM
Conservatives, and Red State citizens generally, have higher birth rates than liberals. This is one of the reasons for our de facto Open Borders policy with Mexico.
Charles Martel| 10.4.10 @ 9:49AM
We here in Texas currently send 20 Republicans and 12 Democrats to the US House (up from 19 and 13, the GOP actually recovered a seat in 2008). I imagine that the Republican legislature and the Republican governor that we will still emjoy after November will see to it that at least three of those four new seats are filled by Republicans. At best, the fourth seat could be made competitive, but it's regrettably likely that a new Democrat district will have to be drawn as well.
+++
bystander| 10.1.10 @ 1:04PM
For you amateurs out there, please read the entry from "Redstateboy".
Now THERE's a proper rant by a true professional ranter.
Nice work.
Redstateboy| 10.1.10 @ 4:01PM
Rant?? Where am I wrong? Are the Cities of Buffalo, Washington, D.C. etc., etc. The Liber-ul Blue States of NY., MI., IL, CA., WA., ALL of NE.. these Mecca's of Liber-ul thought and philosophy.. Are these Magnets of Industry? Jobs? Vibrant dynamic Economies?? Nooooooooo! they're Not - they Suck! And what Galls Liber-uls the most is the Truth is out about Liber-ulism.. Everywhere it's conducted.. the People are miserable, over-taxed, underserved and they're LEAVING!
jd| 10.1.10 @ 8:15PM
Redstateboy,
I totally concur with what you are saying. I am a minority in my state of Michigan - conservative, anti-union, anti-liberal. There are some like me on the west side of the state, but as for Flint, Detroit, Saginaw, and the rest of the state in general, everybody is a libtard. I feel for your state and other southern and western ones as well. I know many laid off and retired union people who have moved to Tennessee, the Carolinas, basically red states because of the economic malaise that states like Michigan are in. I thought I was alone in my anger with these clowns who vote Democrat ad nauseam in every election, then complain because their state is a hell in a hand basket. Then they leave and go to red states and try to vote for the exact same kind of politicians. These people are too stupid to connect the dots that the liberal politicians they keep voting for cause such malaise. I truly appreciate your anger and frustration.
avery| 10.2.10 @ 5:59PM
jd - my family is MI are those libtards who complain and pull the dem lever. I feel you. I was raised dem and moved to a red state - and converted. I adored the vibrant economy in such contrast to the can't-do sad sack attitudes and stagnation I had grown up with. Wish I knew how to convert the masses.
So redstateboy's excellent rant - fully seconded.
Matt| 10.3.10 @ 9:08PM
You are not the only Conservative in MI, there are actually a lot of us, at least here in the NW Burbs of Detroit. Still a lot of libtards though, Union entitled morons who cant even understand they are getting screwed as their pensions are only funded around 65% of what they should be. MI is going down hill and will continue downhill. I figure I will stick around and keep picking up reduced priced assets off the morons as they flee to contaminate other states. Eventually, it will be those thinking like us left and holding the assets. Its a game of numbers and time. It does amaze me sometime the absolute density of people who I talk to about economics and politics here, cant see the forest for the trees.
james| 10.1.10 @ 1:14PM
This is interesting, but remember two things. First, who's doing the census? For the first time in history, it's coming from the White House. THIS White House. Surely you don't think the numbers will not be put through the sausage maker?
And second, blue staters moving to red is usually bad for the red. See, e.g., New Hampshire. All those Boston twits went over the border to avoid Mass taxes and turned NH into Vermont.
So this may be good news, but I'm more optimistic about the governors going red than the census numbers.
MikeN| 10.1.10 @ 1:22PM
Gerrymandering in favor of Republicans spreads them thin, and leads to more losses in the future.
dcd| 10.1.10 @ 4:07PM
Too many variables to see where things are going. Moving from northern blue states to southern red states, but also from rural red areas to urban blue areas. Which factors will dominate?
Paul from SA| 10.1.10 @ 5:12PM
Daniel J. Flynn, thanks for a very interesting article. I'd like to hear more.
I don't recall how many reps the state of Texas added after the 2000 census, but the result was that my rep, Henry Bonilla-R, was gerrymandered out by a Republican-controlled state gov't and ended up being replaced by a 5-term liberal Democrat named Ciro Rodriquez, who voted for ObamaCare. This new district, #23 is one of the largest districts in the U.S. It extends from San Antonio to El Paso, and is bigger than some northeastern states. (I remember Howard Dean bragging they had at least a dozen hispanics and a dozen blacks in Vermont.)
We had an internal uncivil Texas state war the last time districts were redrawn. Thank god we will still have a Republican-controlled gov't next year. I expect lots of fireworks. Maybe this the time Democrat state legislators will go hide in Mexico. We will gladly add more Republican seats to help the rest of the country.
VinnieCCT| 10.1.10 @ 11:06PM
I still cant get over the fact that Democrats are associated with blue and Republicans are associated with red. Shouldn't it be the other way around?
Kevin Riley O'Keeffe | 10.2.10 @ 5:50AM
During the Presidential elections of 1976-1988, red=Democrats, and blue=Republicans (I'm too young to recall what was done before '76). Then in 1992, for no obvious reason at all, the networks reversed the color scheme. In 1984, Minnesota was shown in red, and the rest of the country was in blue.
Tyler S.| 10.3.10 @ 3:52PM
Yeah, that's always seemed backwards to me as well.
JP| 10.2.10 @ 12:19PM
Population migrations cut both ways. Liberals will migrate to those areas that create jobs, have low taxes, and generally are socially conservative. But these liberals bring with them thier liberalism, and over time change the demographics of the states in which they move to. There tends to be an evolution where the more conservative "natives" find themselves being flanked by the newer arrivals. And since liberals tend to be more active in local politics, state bureaucracies, educational establishments, etc.... they eventually move a conservative state to the middle. See how traditionally conservative state like North Carolina, Arizona, Montana, New Hampshire have become "battleground" states to various degrees.
Many moons ago Vermonts was about as conservative as one could get. However, migration of liberals (European anarchists and expats lead the way, followed by Hippies in the 1960s and 1970s) made the state that produced Coolridge into one of the most leftist states in the nation.
OklahomaBound| 10.3.10 @ 12:08AM
You are exactly right JP. The socialistic model that liberals create in their blue states eventually fails (it fails quicker if conservatives leave the blue states because we all know that hard working conservatives are the source of tax revenue that the libs use to run their blue states and to prop up the social programs that keep their Marxist politicians in power). Once this happens even the libs flee their sinking ship states for prosperous red states. But, like you mentioned, instead of assimilating into the red states successful model of conservatism and capitalism that made the state successful and prosperous in the first place they just gain strength and infiltrate the local political and educational structures eventually destroying them with their continuously failing socialist model.
I would not be opposed to red states requiring a background check and interview of all people wishing to enter their state and becoming residents. Anyone with a current or past history of liberalism/Marxist/progressives/socialist would be denied residency. Force them to stay in their blue states and live under their own system rather than spreading into red states as the disease that liberalism/socialism is. They are like illegal aliens who come here and wave their home countries flag, if their POS countries were so great than why are they here? If blue state liberalism/socialism is so great than why do they leave for red states and then start implementing their failed systems all over again?
Tyler S.| 10.3.10 @ 3:50PM
I'm actually all for dividing the country. Remember the United States of Canada and Jesusland from the 2004 elcetions? Seriously, if there was a referendum to set you crazy, hate filled, idiots adrift and not have to suffer the embarrassment of sharing a country with people that have made america one of the dumbest of the industrialized nations (28th place globally, way to go us) I'd be all for it.
Rafterman| 10.3.10 @ 9:06PM
Please, by all means, let's divide the country. We can wall off Kalifornia and New Yahk and you morons can stay there. Or, you could simply do us all a favor and move to Mexico or Canada.
Smiler T.| 10.4.10 @ 6:31AM
Ah, yes... that pleasant bit of leftard hate-mongering. Who could forget? Well the deal's mutual, traitor boy--our part of the country is vastly superior to yours, and you leftards deserve to be locked up in the filthy insane asylum gulags you've built for yourselves and cut adrift so that we don't have to suffer the embarrassment of "sharing" anything with you thieving parasites and your retarded Marxist hell-hole states that are dragging down the rest of the country's averages.
smokedaddy| 10.2.10 @ 6:13PM
Flynn- You're kind of missing some important variables here. Namely-
1) With regards to gerrymandering, while Dems tend to have control in the losing states, Repubs tend to control the gaining states like Texas, Florida, etc. And don't forget we'll have big gains in Governorships and state legislatures after this cycle.
2) At least as important as the interstate population movements are the intra-state migrations. For example the heavily Republican Inland Empire of SB/Riverside counties here in California have gained about 700,000 while LA Counties has remained stagnant. Enough to require 1 Dem seat be folded up in LA count and 1 Repub added to SW Riverside. So, even tho the Dems may still control redistricting for congress (unless prop 23 passes) just like they did 10 years ago, Repubs will still probably gain 2-3 seats from redistricting alone in California which is expected to stay at 53 seats. More if prop 23 passes and the current blatant gerrymandering is ended.
Generally, the big population gains have been made in the exurbs of southern and western states, prime GOP territory. So while the impact on the electoral college will not be large, the overall impact on the House should probably be on the order of 20 seats or so. Someone shud do a study on this!
OklahomaBound| 10.2.10 @ 11:51PM
I'm one of those people who just voted with his feet. I left the Socialist Republic of Washington for the free conservative state of Oklahoma at the beginning of last month (Sept 2010). WA is one of the few states that doesn't have an income tax, but despite that they still manage to be one of the highest taxed states in the country because it is completely controlled by the socialist and they have to tax and fee you to death in every conceivable way in order to come up with the money they need in order to redistribute it to the unions and the the welfare leftist with subsidies in order to buy their votes. I've only been in OK for a month now, but the cost of living and taxes are unbelievably low here compared to WA and I can even buy 100% gas for my F-150 (no ethanol crap in it) and get it for about 45-50 cents less per gal than I paid back in WA. Good riddance WA, I hope you drown in the red ink of your social programs just like CA!
conservative teamster| 10.3.10 @ 10:33AM
People do vote with their feet. That said, a lot of people cannot move because of their job, lack of money, whatever. I feel for these people . . . but I also have to question why they keep voting for the same politicans who have screwed them and ruined their neighborhoods and cities. I have family members who constantly complain about how bad things are but have never voted anything but a straight Democratic ticket. The Democratic party could teach the communists a thing or two about 'brainwashing'. Lets' get over this 'party thing'. Vote for the person who is going to do what is best for your community. High taxes and burdensome regulations just make it worse. If you want real change you have to throw off the chains. Forget the class warfare. Don't buy the argument that the Dems are for the 'little guy'. If you keep on doing the same thing don't complain. You get what you deserve.
MacDaddy| 10.4.10 @ 10:54AM
The Electoral math is not going to be BHO's to solve come November, 2012. I have called it in writing since February this year that His One-ness is NOT going to be the Dem nominee in 2012. He will (be forced to) do a Lyndon Johnson, leaving the door open for Hillary, the idea being she is the only Democrat with any centrist cred. As has been noted in a few articles here and at The American Thinker, she has already begun her campaign by undermining BHO, in ways subtle and not-so-subtle, since about June of this year.....
So, as soon as we wake up from the victory parties on 11/3, these ought to be our priorities:
1. Queueing up our waterfowl to fend off the lame-duck onslaught of the Pelosi plutocrats. (Hopefully, Reid will be a casualty. We can and should request he vacate his leadership role immediately during the lamest duck session.)
2. Announce our plan, and EXECUTE it, toward the slowing down/defunding/repealing the worst of the ObamaNomics provisions. On this, we also need to wage a thorough and intellectually HONEST media campaign to communicate clearly with the American public what the expectations (for the economy) ought to be for the 2011- 2012 time frame. And the elected Republicans and their staffs had better comport themselves like choirboys and nuns during this time. Leave the stinkin' tax/hiring/drinking/drug/sex scandals for the democrats.
3. Identify and begin developing our Executive Branch talent for the 2012 elections. Anyone who doesn't think the Soros-Clinton wing of the Democratc party won't react to a 2010 loss by trying to hold and protect the White House like a pi$$ed off mama grizzly protecting her cubs, ought to just leave for Switzerland now. It will be the meanest, bloodiest, most fierce election in the history of our history.....
kclop| 10.4.10 @ 3:16PM
Other than to score depate ponts, I'm sure not one s serous about splitting the country into independent states. But, with the 10th Amendment and a properly defunded central governement, let NY and CA be social democratic welfare states.
Cow Rie| 10.4.10 @ 8:39PM
Couple comments:
* Are not the vermin libs trying to abolish the electoral college state by state thru the legislatures?
*The Radicals in the White House will manipulate
the Census Data, utilize ACORN, dead voters on the rolls, and other fraud. It's in their nature.
elenore| 10.6.10 @ 10:37AM
It's all about illegals.Michigan population hasn't really gone down that much or the rest of the Great Lakes Region.The fact is Obama is stupid and so is DNC.By fighting for to keep illegals in this country they are giving Red State more representation at a cost to Mid-West however those illegals can't vote which DNC foolishly thinks they will stay DNC a lifetime if given Amnesty.Really Do blacks still vote for the party of Lincoln.Do the former illegals who won Amnesty from Reagan still vote GOP.Morons and to pour salt into the wounds of the Mid-West the DNC under Clinton repeals Glass-Steagall,signs NAFTA and more,opens China to our current screw job,signs loop hole for Speculation,a give us health care that doesn't really change anything in my state but makes have to buy it.etc..DNC continues to tell the Mid-West to f-off but vote for us because GOP is scarier.I beg to differ 2 of our most productive Governors in Michigan have been GOP,Romney and Milliken.I'll give our homegrown GOP a chance since DNC has back stabbed our Region.
elenore| 10.6.10 @ 10:41AM
Oh and the funniest part is the Mid-West is going Red just as they are giving South Western Red states more representation.The DNC will be a 2 coastline party soon.
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Christian Louboutin | 6.23.11 @ 6:32AM
The U.S. Census Bureau releases its official count this December, and this final tally, and not the Election Data Services, Inc.'s projection based on preliminary counts, will determine the reapportionment in effect for the 2012 elections.