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Loose Canons
This Year’s Conservative Insurgency
The only question is whether conservatives will win it in time to reform the Republican Party by 2012.
We hear so much about the counterinsurgency strategy Gen. David Petraeus has pursued in Iraq and Afghanistan, we have lost track of another insurgency that’s being fought here between conservatives and the Republican establishment.
Conservatives will win this battle. The only question is whether we will win it in time to reform the Republican Party and defeat Obama two years from now.
In some ways it’s like 1976, when conservatives fell short of nominating Ronald Reagan. Then, as my friend and editor Wlady Pleszczynski reminds me, conservatives were less organized and most Americans were still thinking in the terms of 1972, when the “Silent Majority” had to choose between the counter-cultural McGoverniks and Richard Nixon, who to the media was — if not the devil himself —at least the devil’s first cousin. But it is like 1976 in the fact that Barack Obama is as much a counter-cultural force as were Obama’s pal Bill Ayers, Jane Fonda, and the others who were the faces of angry liberalism in their day.
As a new Rasmussen poll shows, “conservative” is still the most positive political label, “liberal” the least popular and “Tea Party candidate” the most influential. The media — with the help of the conservative establishment and RINO party switchers like Charlie Crist and Lisa Murkowski — are desperately working to make “Tea Party” synonymous with “extremist” and “radical.” They are suffering a case of the vapors over the “civil war” within the Republican Party, as CNN’s Candy Crowley called the conservative insurgency yesterday.
In some ways it’s also like 1992 and 1996 when Ross Perot’s independents tried to run against the Republican establishment and only succeeded in providing Bill Clinton with the margins he needed to defeat his Republican opponents. But this year huge numbers of voters are politically active for the first time. They are angry for many of the same reasons the Perotistas were, but this time — because people feel that the government no longer represents them (see, e.g. Obamacare, which most Americans opposed and still want repealed), the continuing economic slump and fear of the long-term damage created by Obama’s spending tsunami — voters are taking this election personally.
I remember a conversation I had about a year ago with Republican chairmen from big states. When I asked them what they were doing to capture the energy of the Tea Parties, there was dead silence on the other end of the phone. Only the Texas chairman had a good answer. They, and most of the Republican congressional leaders, didn’t understand the need to reach out to the independents and turn their energy into votes. It only got worse when this year’s primary season began.
From the outset, the Republican establishment has chosen to fight the conservative insurgency rather than support it or even stay out of the fight until a nominee is chosen.
Fresh from its giving monetary support to Arlen Specter’s campaign before he switched parties, the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee, led by the otherwise admirable Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tex.) launched an unprecedented interference in primary races.
The NRSC threw its financial support very early to Charlie Crist, who was no match for Marco Rubio, and went on to support a whole string of establishmentarian losers: Jane Norton in Colorado, Sue Lowden in Nevada, Trey Grayson in Kentucky, Lisa Murkowski in Alaska who lost to John Miller (Cornyn’s team had sent attorneys to Alaska as well as money to help save Murkowski from Miller), and most recently Mike Castle in Delaware.
Sen. Cornyn should tell us how much money has been wasted on defending establishment candidates and now cannot be thrown in to support the conservatives in their races against the Democrats.
And it’s not only in Senate races in which the establishment has taken a beating. In the New York gubernatorial primary, tough-talking conservative Carl Paladino left establishment candidate Rick Lazio looking like the coyote in Road Runner cartoons, lying flat on his face with footprints up his back.
The reason conservatives will win over the establishment Republican/media counterinsurgency is explained in the book that is reportedly Gen. Petraeus’s bible: Counterinsurgency Warfare, Theory and Practice,” an obscure 1964 work by French Lt. Col. David Galula who learned counterinsurgency first-hand in China, Greece, Indochina, and Algeria.
One of the most important features of a successful insurgency, Galula wrote, is that the insurgent has to espouse a cause that the counterinsurgent cannot or can only do so by losing power. The 2010 conservative insurgency has two such causes, and the Republican establishment is so unsure of what principles it stands for that it cannot bring itself to join conservative insurgents in those causes.
The first of the insurgents’ causes is to reduce the size and cost of government. Opposition to Obamacare and outrage at Obama’s spending spree is what created the Tea Party. Suffering a grand mal seizure of denial, Democratic Party Chairman Tim Kaine said in a CNN interview yesterday that Tea Party candidates’ radicalism doesn’t appeal to independent voters. Kaine cannot seem to admit that the vast majority of the Tea Partyers are independents. Will the congressmen and senators who voted for Obamacare over the objections of most voters fare better with Tea Partyers than those candidates who promise to repeal it?
Small government conservatism — Reagan conservatism, the conservatism of Thomas Paine — doesn’t register any better with Republican establishmentarians than it does with Gov. Kaine. A redundant proof, as RET’s recent column pointed out, was in House Minority Leader John Boehner’s (R-Ohio) concession a week ago that he’d support repeal of some of the Bush tax cuts. Boehner thus made it impossible for conservatives to hold the line against Obama and Pelosi. Boehner cut the legs out from under the faux-moderate Democratic “Blue Dogs” who might have helped block the repeal. Boehner may have a rough time with newly elected conservatives in January, whether or not he has the opportunity to achieve the House speakership he covets.
About the Author
Jed Babbin served as a Deputy Undersecretary of Defense under George H.W. Bush. He is the author of several bestselling books including Inside the Asylum and In the Words of Our Enemies. You can follow him on Twitter @jedbabbin.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (34) | Leave a comment
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figus janus| 9.20.10 @ 7:19AM
Just remember the only way to win is to go out and VOTE! Go out and tell everyone you know to vote. NO matter whom they chose!
We must not split the vote. We must show all the people that if you hate out of control spending, high taxes and big government you ARE part of the Tea Party.
VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE!!
Alan Brooks| 9.20.10 @ 9:46AM
Fantasyland: you say the GOP can't compromise, however they will have to compromise to the maximum extent to get enough votes from all the various constituencies that now make up the GOP; everyone from neo-Confederates to gay Republicans.
You guys are the last to know.
1FreeMan| 9.20.10 @ 9:08PM
Dear figus janus,
Right on the money. All the talk in the world won't help if you don't plan ahead of time to take off work and go VOTE!!!
For those of you that see corruption in the polls; VIDEO THE CRIME and post it on the internet. The criminal attack on our freedom must be documented.
I actually believe the sheep that voted for Obama actually thought they were doing something good for the USA. They are shocked and disenfrachised (use a dictionary Alan Brooks, I know it is a big word for you). Show them the crimes and they will turn: dead people voting LOL!
Vote, document the democrat crimes, and then follow through and keep the pressure on until we re-establish the Constitution.
Troy | 9.20.10 @ 9:37PM
Better than bringing crime to light at the polls, work the polls and make sure it doesn't happen in the first place. Taking one day off of work will make you certain that the votes in that one district were collected honestly.
For those of us who are medically unable to serve in the military it is also a great way to serve the country.
Ken (Old Texican)| 9.20.10 @ 7:46AM
Heck, Jed,
The whole future of our country hinges on November. We can't make a u-turn in this country until first we get the Repubs to at least put on the brakes. I think they are at least competent enough to do that.
I personally can't wait for those Congressional subpoenas to start hitting the crooks.
Alan Brooks| 9.20.10 @ 9:48AM
"I think they are at least competent enough to do that."
What a man of decision you are.
Way to Go| 9.20.10 @ 12:59PM
Mr. Brooks: Your snide commentary is a waste of peoples' time.
Periwinkel| 9.20.10 @ 1:16PM
Way to Go, why do you even bother to read Ms. Brooks? When these guys get too far out of control, American Spectator eventually bans them. It takes a while but eventually they do get kicked out.
loulou| 9.20.10 @ 1:50PM
Way to Go: Brooks has no value. Best to ignore.
ds80| 9.20.10 @ 11:09PM
yup: Alan Brooks = scroll, scroll, scroll past.
Sea_Hunter| 9.20.10 @ 8:24AM
Sounds like both the Republicans and Democrats are fighting the Cong. Only this time, Kong is spelled with a K.
Tim*| 9.20.10 @ 8:40AM
If The GOP wants War with We ,Tea Party Rebels let it be here and now .
The GOP needs Our Tea Party Votes more than We Tea Party Rebels need The GOP .
"Lead, follow, or get out of the way."
-- Thomas Paine
"We herd sheep, we drive cattle, we lead people. Lead me, follow me, or get out of my way."
-- George S. Patton
The Tea Party Rebellion Escalates .
Rise Up !
Louis Jenkins| 9.20.10 @ 9:11AM
Yes! The Tea Party will continue. Even if we take some losses in Nov., we will take some wins. The GOP establishment is at war with the Tea Party, however, we will not stop. It is all due to come to a reckoning this Nov. Meanwhile the establishment Republicans hope that this darned movement will sputter out after Nov. It's not going to do that. We will still be present and accounted for. But I'm with Old Texican on this one. If we don't put a stop to the liberals and to the GOP establishment the future looks very uncertain. Everyone needs to get out and vote. Vote early and often.
MacDaddy| 9.20.10 @ 10:02AM
Let us learn the lesson of General Giap, and hold the Republican Aristocracy "close by the belt" to negate the superiority of their media weapons and their monetary advantage....and remember that the war doesn't end on 11/2....that is merely the date of the first significant battle.
macdaddy| 9.20.10 @ 10:15AM
The Repub aristocracy ought to realize that they need us, more than we need them....and that together, if they are willing to partner with the T.E.A. conservatives, we can wrest control from the Liberal dems and reverse the big government trend and defend liberty. However, if they don't, WE realize that the fight will take longer, but the result will be the same. Their are MORE conservatives than liberals...we WILL bring the country back. There's a train rollin' down the tracks.....you can board it, you can get out of the way of it, or you can be run over...Mr. Rove appears to have chosed option number 3......
autoacct628| 9.20.10 @ 10:26AM
Think about it in Cinematic terms, a la "Braveheart.".... O'Donnell & the T.E.A. party are Wallace and his rebel army of the people, who wanted freedom enough to fight for it. The Replican elites in power are the Scottish nobles who nominally wanted independence from England, but wanted to retain the existing class and power structure for themselves. The Liberal dems are Longshanks and the English Lords and Army, raping and pillaging the country. The Republican Nobles will sacrifice O'Donnell to make a deal with the Longshank Liberals to retain a meaningless power, at the expense of freedom. That will be their undoing. What remains to be seen is, who (Palin? Daniels? DeMint?) will be the modern Earl of Bruce to pick up the mantle, rally the T.E.A. party and engage and ultimately defeat the Longshank Liberals at Bannock Burn in 2012, fighting like "Warrior poets.".....history repeats itself. (Yes, I know, Braveheart was not historically accurate....but the analogy fits well, does it not?)
DB| 9.20.10 @ 11:27AM
It fits very well indeed! I love it. I just watched Braveheart with my 12 year old son, then took him to DC for the 9/12 TEA Party March. I am going to share this analogy with him. Well done, sir (or is it maam?).
Ned the Red| 9.20.10 @ 11:57AM
I think Governor Palin decked out in the skirt and war paint would definitely be an improvement over Mel.
Nancy would make a great Longshanks and Harry or Obama could be the wimp who gets chucked out the window.
William Wallace| 9.20.10 @ 1:00PM
That the honor has to go to Barney Frank is self-evident.
I had to chime in. This is "my" movie after all.
Tim*| 9.20.10 @ 2:33PM
We Tea Party Rebels are looking at Tea Party Kingmaker Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina to run for President in 2012 .
The Tea Party Rebellion Escalates .
Rise Up !
TR| 9.21.10 @ 12:38AM
Anyone who is hated by the democrat marxists as much as he is gets my support. There must be something really good there to have the huffpost types in smear panic mode.
PatC | 10.15.10 @ 8:38AM
auto:
Perfect analogy. I'll be stealing it. :)
Ned the Red| 9.20.10 @ 10:29AM
Water-Boarding or Tea-Boarding, they both work to bring out the truth.
Alan Brooks| 9.20.10 @ 10:52AM
"Yes, I know, Braveheart was not historically accurate....but the analogy fits well, does it not?"
Uh, yes, sure. Um, you can have some haldol now... it'll do you good.
Tom| 9.20.10 @ 8:51PM
Pretty funny from a man who uses The Godfather to bolster his arguments.
Len| 9.20.10 @ 12:28PM
Reagan conservatism, Thomas Paine conservatism...make up your mind. Thomas Paine would have considered Reagan's conservatism as too much government.
RCV| 9.20.10 @ 5:07PM
You must not have read Paine's "Agrarian Justice" (1795).
Nunya| 9.20.10 @ 1:55PM
The Republicans in the RNC and those currently in office in Congress have gone WAY too far to left, trying to "reach across the aisle" or some other blather.
They've left the vast majority of we "flyover country" conservatives with no other choice but to start voting for TRUE conservatives into office. RINO's like McCain, Snowe, etc., et al, are a DISGRACE to the Republican party. Unfortunately, the RNC has given us nothing but RINO's and has supported the same, and the "Braveheart" analogy above is fairly accurate to describe what's been happening. Just keep voting for the RINO's the RNC gives us, so those in power can take advantage of the situation and retain their power. Doesn't matter if they're leading the country into an abyss, just as long as they can stay in charge. Spend money like there's no tomorrow, vote for CRAP legislation so we can still be friends with the Democrap leadership, and on and on. It's insane, and it's about to come to an end.
Country FIRST. State second, Party LAST!
Out with the RINO's. In with true conservatives.
George| 9.20.10 @ 2:46PM
The fight must continue until the Lindsay Grahams, John McCains, and Olympia Snowes are sent the way of the Arlen Specters, Lisa Murkowskis, and Mike Castles.
Joe Oliva| 9.20.10 @ 3:14PM
Too bad McCain won in Arizona. If he had lost, would he have gone the Independent route like the others? Of course that would be a renunciation of his principle that country comes first. We don't know what he would have done, but I am truly afraid of what he will do now that he is probably in his last, lameduck term. Big mistake Arizona!
Robert M. Engstrom | 9.21.10 @ 2:09AM
The reason John McCain won the renomination is the same reason why he lost the presidential election in 2008.
The defeated faction in both cases never had a chance of victory, and everybody knew it long before the polls opened on either election day.
This losing strategy only encourages more Tea Party participation. Analagous is the Afghanistan conflict. A mutually sympathetic cause, the Tea Party, unites multiple, independent clans. Infiltrate or discredit one clan and the rest continue the fight. It is the ultimate strength of a political insurgency.
What comes as a surprise is that huge faction of Independents and Democrats who are disspirited by Obama's leadership, but put off by the "radical" reputation of the Tea Party. They are a sullen but silent faction ... so far.
RCV| 9.22.10 @ 3:51PM
George, as with the French revolutionaries before Thermidor, your fight will continue until you've executed everybody who used to be on your side.