TAMPA — Sixty-two days left. But who’s counting?
Last week’s primary cleared a lot of political underbrush,
leaving Florida with one major state-wide race that looks good for
the conservative candidate, another that’s problematic.
The problem is political newcomer Rick Scott, who
confounded last-minute polls and the entire Florida Republican
establishment by beating Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum by
three points for the Republican nomination for governor. The
operatically rich Scott spent about $50 million of his own money in
the primary campaign, one of the nastiest in Florida’s history. Now
he wants those establishment types he carpet-bombed in the primary
to help him raise money for the general.
Scott ran in the primary as an outsider, making him one of
the few candidates who’ve recently run as an outsider who actually
is an outsider. He made his unlikely fortune as a health care
entrepreneur and executive and has never sought political office
before. His name was not on the Rolodex of a single political
consultant when he declared for the office just a few months ago.
Rick Who? He’s running for what?
Scott ran on conservative themes, promising among other
things to cut state spending and to get at least as tough on
illegal immigrants as Arizona has. He said the state’s
establishment Republicans, all of whom lined up behind McCollum in
the primary race, have made a botch of things and he plans to use
his business skills to clean up the mess they’ve made. In a year in
which being an incumbent isn’t an advantage, it worked.
Trouble is, Scott could now use some of these
establishment screw-ups (his characterization) and “career
politicians” to help him in what will surely be a tough race
against his Democratic opponent, former banking executive and
current Florida Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink.
Though she’s to the left of Scott on most issues, she
supports ObamaCare, for example, she’s not seen by Floridians who
know her as a left geek. Unlike most Democratic office holders and
wannabes, Sink has not only worked in the private sector most of
her career but has succeeded there. She rose to be CEO of Bank of
America’s Florida operation. She can raise money and she will be
difficult to run a negative campaign against. Even some Republicans
say she is more predictable and less apt to shoot from the hip than
the mercurial Scott.
Republicans held a “unity Rally,” the first of many, in
Tampa Monday with Scott, party officials, candidates,
office-holders, fund raisers, and others who would be useful to
Scott as he runs against Sink, who was able to keep her powder and
her campaign cash dry during a primary where she faced only token
opposition. There was a lot of smiling, air-kissing, and solidarity
talk at the rally (had they been Democrats they would have sung
“Kumbaya”). But many of the smiles were over gritted teeth. Though
the official line is that Republicans are united behind Scott (and
they may eventually be), the truth is lots of Republicans just
don’t like this guy. He takes about 40 percent negatives into a
tough campaign.
McCollum himself hasn’t yet said he will support Scott in
the general. For now he and his team of CPAs are still trying to
compile an exhaustive (and exhausting) list of all the nasty names
Scott called McCollum during the campaign and all the over-the-top
charges he made against him. McCollum may come around. But,
understandably, he’s still smarting now. If this campaign were
conducted by the same rules of etiquette that apply in Major League
Baseball, McCollum would still owe Scott about 10 brush-back
pitches.
In addition to the nasty campaign, Florida Republicans are
understandably concerned about the fact that Scott was CEO of
HCA/Columbia when that hospital chain was accused of Medicare
fraud, which eventually led to the company paying a record $1.7
billion in fines. Scott’s exact responsibility in this, if any, was
not ferreted out in the primary campaign, though the media and
McCollum tried hard enough. The Sink Campaign will be all over
it.
Hard to tell what will happen in this one over the next
two months. But for now call it a toss-up, or leaning
Sink.
CONSERVATIVE SENATE CANDIDATE Marco Rubio looks to be in
much better shape than Scott. The youngish — 39 — former Florida
House Speaker has run an inspiring campaign on conservative themes
and a vow to vigorously oppose the efforts of Obama and his
Democratic enablers to remake American along statist lines. Where
Scott is fighting dislike and distrust in his own ranks as well as
having to run against the Democrat, Rubio is well liked by most
Florida Republicans, from establishment types to the grass
roots.
Rubio has caught the attention of national conservatives
— George Will, Steve Forbes, Jim DeMint, Grover Norquist, et al.
— who say Rubio’s promises to attempt to cut federal spending, to
support limited government and push for a vigorous foreign policy
based on keeping America the strongest military force in the world,
are proof that he gets it, and that there is hope, with office
holders like Rubio, that the Republican Party could recover from
its fall from grace.
Whether Rubio wins the Senate seat or not, he’s already
performed a public service by forcing Florida’s formerly RINO
governor Charlie Crist to quit pretending to be a Republican. In
April, trailing Rubio by two to one in some polls in a race for the
Republican Senate nomination, Crist announced he would no longer
run as a Republican, as he had said over and over he would, but
would seek the office as an independent. Since then he’s been
trying to convince Florida voters that he feels very strongly both
ways about just about everything. It isn’t working.
The latest polls show Rubio leading Crist by about 10
points with Democrat Kendrick Meek trailing badly. As an
independent, Crist faces some formidable arithmetic. With the
popular and charismatic Rubio holding Crist to around 20 percent of
Republican votes, Crist will have to get somewhere in the
neighborhood of 45 percent of Democratic votes as well as at least
half of independents to be competitive Nov. 2. He may need even
more Democrats as there is more enthusiasm for this race among
Republicans than among Democrats, and the R’s may well win the
turnout race by a substantial margin.
Tall order. Crist is gaining only about 35 percent of
Democratic voters now, even though he has shifted almost all of his
formerly conservative positions to the left to accommodate
Democratic voters, who he sees as his only chance.
A lot can happen in two months and change. Crist has shown
in the primary that he’s capable of going negative. It didn’t help
him then, and it’s even less likely to now with Crist being
squeezed from both the left and right. For now, Advantage
Rubio.
