Washington State has a history as a dark blue locale, a
well-deserved reputation as a politically dark blue locale,
virtually incapable of electing Republicans to major statewide
offices, or to a majority of congressional seats. But with the GOP
emboldened by a sour economy, long-term high rates of unemployment,
and voters concerned about the deficit and national debt, political
operative groupthink is now tending towards the view that a
Republican wave will sweep Democrats out of office, including in
places like the Evergreen State this year. Tuesday’s top-two,
“jungle” primary results offered an indicator of why Washington
Republicans seeking to oust incumbent senior senator Patty Murray
might just have good cause to cheer, with just over two months to
go until Election Day.
Murray, who is currently serving out her third term in the
Senate and acts as Harry Reid’s number four in Senate Democratic
leadership, failed to reach the 50 percent mark Tuesday in a
contest where she had no serious Democratic competition — but
plenty of Republicans on the ballot.
Moreover, the most well-known among them, her months-ago
predetermined general election opponent Dino Rossi, took just under
34 percent of the vote to Murray’s 46 percent — a tally best
described as too close for comfort.
Even worse for Murray, when the votes cast by supporters
of other Republicans — namely former Washington Redskins player
and Tea Party favorite Clint Didier (who garnered about 12 percent
of the vote) and businessman Paul Akers (who garnered about 2.5
percent) — were added to Rossi’s total, Republicans collectively
bested Murray’s take of the vote, 48 percent to 46.
Those are numbers bound to leave Murray scared, especially
given the overall trends taking shape: The progressive base is in
the doldrums, independents are abandoning Democrats, and rarely do
you meet a voter who associates anything positive with Washington,
D.C. Of course, Murray’s consultants and the DSCC have known for a
long time that as it stands, she is no shoo-in for re-election.
According to the latest SurveyUSA polling, only 41 percent of
adults surveyed approve of the job she is doing, while 54 percent
disapprove. Even in the metropolitan Seattle area, from which
Murray hails, only 43 percent gave her a thumbs up — perhaps
little surprise when the unemployment rate statewide is running at
8.9 percent and worries about the economy, as they do everywhere,
trump other considerations.
Murray has been in a particularly strong position, given
her role in Senate leadership, to ameliorate all this. Yet she has
not. Meanwhile, she has raked in close to $1 million over recent
years from lawyers and lobbyists, her top two contributors
according to OpenSecrets.org. As November nears, expect voters to
ask more and more “what has she done for me?” and for the Rossi
camp to reply “nothing” — or “nothing good.” Whether voters
actively decide to take a chance on Rossi or just chuck their
ballots in the recycle bin, the result could be the same: Patty
out, Dino in.
Setting aside Murray’s actual share of the vote, her weak
showing in Tuesday’s primary, 440,119 votes as at the time of
writing, constitutes a warning sign that all is not well Chez
Patty. So do those 140,192 votes she garnered in King County, the
most consistently liberal portion of the state. When running in the
2008 primary, also of the top-two, “jungle” variety and against
Rossi, Gov. Christine Gregoire managed to secure 696,306 votes
statewide, 216,185 in King County. It is possible that Gregoire and
her allies invested more than did Murray in get-out-the-vote
efforts aimed at a primary where, again, the result had been
predetermined months in advance. But Murray allies such as labor
unions have a lot riding on her re-election, and have not exactly
been thoroughly inactive to date. The failure of Murray to drive a
similar number of votes as Gregoire did in 2008 in King County very
possibly signals an enthusiasm problem afflicting her base,
especially when viewed through the prism of those low approval
ratings, including in metropolitan Seattle.
In a state where the overwhelming majority of voters vote
by mail, Murray’s “ask” of Democrats and Democrat-minded
independents will prove easier than that of some Democrats running
this cycle. And to be sure, Washington is not Pennsylvania, Murray
is tougher than she looks, and the DSCC has from early this year
demonstrated a willingness to play dirty in order to prop her up.
But with virtually every number going showing Murray in trouble,
despite all this, it’s quite possible that the woman who first ran
as “just” the “Mom in Tennis Shoes” may be headed back to where she
came from, both geographically and professionally, come November
3.
