The American Spectator : Polls Apart

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Polls Apart

By age and party affiliation ye shall know them. Scott Rasmussen sure does.

TAMPA -- The latest Rasmussen robo-call telephone poll, released this week, shows conservative Republican former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio leading Florida Governor Charlie Crist (ILD-Independent Leaning Democrat) for the open U.S. Senate seat by 38 to 33 with likely Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek trailing at 21 percent.

If Jeff Greene should be the Democratic nominee, the lineup is Crist 37, Rubio 36, and Greene 20. The poll has a margin of error of four percent, though Scott Rasmussen says it's a little early for polls in this competitive race to mean much.

Those keeping up with the dramatic and volatile Crist/Rubio rumble cannot help but notice that Rubio has always done better in Rasmussen polls than in any other. Sometimes considerably better. Currently other outfits -- Quinnipiac, NYTimes Newspapers, Public Policy Strategies, Florida Chamber of Commerce -- show Crist leading by from six to 11 points.

This difference has always been there. Last winter and spring while Crist was still trying to convince Florida Republicans that he was Reagan, Part II and that he should be the Republican Senate nominee (now he's Harry Truman redux), Rasmussen was the first to report that Rubio had a lead in that race. That got a few laughs from the liberal Florida media and other political "experts" who considered Crist invincible. But Rubio's lead soon began to grow to the point it was obvious even to editorial writers and political consultants. Obvious especially to Crist, who dropped out of the Republican race in April and is pursuing the Senate seat without a party affiliation. The laughing stopped.

Rasmussen was also the first to predict Joe Sestak over Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania this year. In fact, Rasmussen has a solid record of predicting winners, a record that's available on the Rasmussen website. You could look it up.

"Rasmussen and Pew were the most accurate polls in the 2008 election," said University of South Florida political science professor Susan McManus, who knows everything about Florida politics worth knowing (and probably a lot that isn't). This inconveniences those who argue that Rasmussen polls should be ignored because they overstate the strength of Republican and conservative candidates.

So why the big difference? Is a personally conservative Scott Rasmussen just painting a rosy picture of the prospects of his own kind of candidates, or does something else account for the difference? I asked Rasmussen his own self.

Scott Rasmussen didn't deny being conservative, but did laugh when I said some call him just a Republican cheerleader.

"The Republicans were complaining about us in 2006 because our numbers were showing the Democrats would win the Senate," he said.  Rasmussen said his firm's good record in picking winners and in spotting trends well before Election Day is based on solid measuring techniques, not on his outlook.

"Most of the other polling firms are generally polling registered voters rather than likely voters," Rasmussen told me. "We have a screening process that asks respondents about their voting history and their level of enthusiasm."

Rasmussen concedes that predicting who will in fact vote in an election is tricky, and more difficult than it has been in the past. He also said most firms will move to the likely voter approach after Labor Day. As to who respondents will vote for, he lists geography, race, age, gender, and party affiliation as the keys to getting an accurate sample.

"Measuring voter enthusiasm and intent is challenging, especially early in the campaign,' Rasmussen said. "But we should be a lot more confident about our numbers in October."

While denying he is a Republican cheerleader, Rasmussen pointed out some factors that should give comfort to Republican candidates in general and Rubio specifically.

"If you look at polls of generic congressional preference, Democrats do well in polls of all adults, Republicans do better in polls of registered voters, and better still among likely voters," Rasmussen said. "Groups most supportive of Democrats, young and minority voters, are less likely to be registered and less likely to go the polls."

Rasmussen said the youth turnout wasn't even that impressive in 2008, with a rock star at the top of the ticket. He said he'd be "shocked" if the youth vote turned out this year. He pointed out that in 2008 McCain won among voters who were 40 or older. Rain or shine, these folks show up to the polls, and they lean Republican.

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About the Author

Larry Thornberry is a writer in Tampa.

Letter to the Editor View all comments (13) | Leave a comment

Robbins Mitchell| 8.12.10 @ 6:49AM

Well,given Charlie's 'personal proclivities',he can take solace in the fact that he's probably got the Log Cabin vote all sewed up

loulou| 8.12.10 @ 11:32AM

Didn't Crist recently obtain a beard?

travelah| 8.12.10 @ 12:50PM

Yeah ... he picked that up off some chick on Sun Beach

vtwin| 8.12.10 @ 8:49PM

“ NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll suggest that the Republican Party is very much a Southern regional white party in terms of the demographics of its supporters.”
“The GOP has a HUGE generic-ballot edge in the South (52%-31%), but it doesn't lead anywhere else. In the Northeast, Dems have a 55%-30% edge; in the Midwest, they lead 49%-38%; and in the West, it's 44%-43%.”

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com.....lue-nation

Dan Hirsch| 8.12.10 @ 11:09PM

Believe that, Harley boy. Believe that. In November's second week you'll learn what coffee smells like. HeeHaw!

JmsA| 8.15.10 @ 8:14PM

vitwin,

You actually have the gall to quote msnbc, the most one-sided, leftist cable network? What a joke! Thanks, nonetheless, for letting us know you're one of three or so morons who still watch msnbc.

Oh, by the way, have you yet figured out that Medicare and Social Security projections are arrived at through actuarial analysis, based on statistics?

Mark Shepler- Jupiter FL| 8.12.10 @ 8:55AM

As the election approaches, Crist is going to be seen more and more as the stealth Democratic candidate. Jeff Greene is imploding and Meeks is the idiot son of FL's version of Maxine Waters and never really had a chance in the general election, thus Crist as the quiet Liberal savior. Meanwhile, Crist is moving more and more left to garner disaffected Democratic support in money, campaign help and, hopefully, votes. It is not a strategy without possibilities even if without honesty and integrity. But lack of integrity never stopped Crist before, indeed, it has been his successful MO. So why didn't he just switch to the Dems, I wonder? I think because he's always been a straddler, playing both sides against the middle and he wanted to retain as much as his "base", such as it ever was, as he could continue to fool. He also wanted to run the fraud that he is Mr. Independent and not really playing the game he is clearly playing.

But alerting the public to Crist's phoniness and new friends should not be hard for Rubio's campaign. It'll all become clearer and easier to portray distinctions after the primary on Aug. 24. Rubio has the ultimate weapon in this election season against an opportunist politician who can't be trusted- The Hug. Just blanket the airwaves showing Crist in the clinch with Obama while his effusions over the discredited TARP & Stimulus I scroll down the screen and a voice-over recounts all of his flip-flops. Another might tell of his journey from so-called conservative to "independent" but ending in The Hug as final and true destination as a closet Obama-ite and stealth Democrat liberal all along. That to elect Crist is to put another Obama man in the Senate. The variations are limitless. Of all the politicians running away from Obama this fall none have it so bad as poor 'ol Charlie Crist and his Hug.

Roy| 8.14.10 @ 11:52PM

He didn't switch to the Dems because if he had he'd be getting his butt kicked as badly as they are.

No, his current strategy allows Republicans who serve the media and are looking for ways to delude themselves into thinking they aren't voiting for a Democrat, to do so. There's always a fair number of these and obviously right now they are putting him over the top.

wodiej| 8.12.10 @ 4:09PM

Wow....we will not miss Crist. He starts out Republican, moves to the middle and may move all the way to the left. How in the world can Crist have any credibility with voters when he cannot even make up his mind what he believes in?

Rasumussen is very accurate and based on this, Rubio will win. Hope so. Next up, remove Boxer, Pelosi and Reid. Time to show them the exit door and anyone else who isn't fulfilling their appointed duties like RINO's in Maine Collins and Snowe.