In the heyday of the Soviet Union, Western Kremlinologists
eagerly awaited photos from the annual May Day parade in Moscow
to see if the arrangement of Kremlin leaders reviewing the troops
from atop Lenin’s Tomb had changed. Like medieval seers reading
chicken entrails to divine the future, they figured if “A” had
moved from the back rank to the front, he was rising in the
hierarchy. The same sort of speculation is attached today to the
leadership succession in The Hermit Kingdom, North Korea.
Although Pyongyang likes big military parades, unlike the
Lenin’s Tomb photos of yesteryear, North Korea’s
leaders aren’t all clustered together for their annual photo.
Instead it is a combination of rumors, leaked reports and close
readings of press releases that provide the clues as to possible
successors to Kim Jong-il, the “Dear Leader” and son of the
founder, “Great Leader” Kim Il-sung.
In recent months several members of the hierarchy have left
the scene, through sudden death or “retirement.” Ascending has
been Chang Song-taek, who is married to Kim Jong-il’s only
sister.
In February 2009, Chang was elected to the powerful
National Defense Commission. At the time, photos of all the
members of this group were released publicly, an unusual
event.
On the Commission, Chang, 64, is director of the bland
sounding Administrative Department. In fact, this means he
oversee the Ministry of Public Security and the State Security
Department, both pivotal power positions.
The addition of Chang and four other new members of the
National Defense Commission last year is seen by Washington’s
Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, one of the best
informed observers of the Hermit Kingdom, to mean this may be
stand-by collective leadership to guide the country if the ailing
Kim Jong-il were suddenly to pass from the scene. The group is
also strongly supportive of a “military first” policy (which may
explain the sinking of South Korea’s navy ship “Cheonan” in
March).
Chang Song-taek is beginning to look as if he is “first
among equals” in this group. In addition, he is seen as something
of a mentor to Kim’s third son, 28-year-old Kim Jong-eun, now
referred to as “The Dear General.” (Despite his youth, he is
reported to be a four-star general in his father’s Body Guard, in
the Army or the State Security Department). Kim’s first son, Kim
Jong-nam, 39, who now appears to be out of favor with his father,
lives in Macau, which suggests a strong relationship with China.
The second son, Kim Jong-chol, 30, is said to have a position in
the Workers’ Party of Korea’s Organization and Guidance
Department.
The matter of succession is largely speculative, but
centers on The Dear General as the putative leader with his
uncle, Chang Song-taek, serving as his guiding hand — a quasi
regent — backed by allies on the National Defense
Commission.
What are we to make of this from a policy point of view?
The U.S. should seek agreement from South Korea, China and Russia
that international cooperation will be needed to create
engagement priorities with North Korea so that it begins to open
its society to reform. Hasty reunification with South Korea is
not the answer, desirable though this may be down the road.
De-emphasis on military spending by North Korea is desirable, as
is a new emphasis on building a sustainable civilian
economy.
Mr. Hannaford is a member of The Committee on
the Present Danger.
