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Political Hay
The Democrats’ Redistricting Nightmare
The most far-reaching effect of the 2010 midterm elections will be felt at the state level.
Forget the economy, health care, even which party controls Congress. The most far-reaching effect of the 2010 midterm elections could be felt at the state level. By casting their ballots in dozens of gubernatorial and hundreds of legislative races, voters will decide whether Democrats or Republicans dominate the redrawing of state and federal political borders for the new decade — a process known as redistricting. And the results could be even more far-reaching for Democrats than the outcome of the midterm elections.
That’s not hyperbole. Given the country’s closely divided electorate, the political fortunes of each party chiefly hinge on how redistricting pans out. That, in turn, hinges on how well Democrats and Republicans fare at the state level. The reason: in most states, legislators are responsible for creating, and governors responsible for signing into law, redistricting plans that reflect population shifts documented in the census. The party in command has enormous clout.
With about a dozen of the nation’s state legislatures closely split along partisan lines and 18 governor’s races in the “toss up” category this year, big changes could be in store. Factoring in the tenuous political atmosphere adds even more spice to the mix. So far, the ground game is shaping up nicely for the GOP, but there are still fundraising and organizational storm clouds on the horizon.
The Cook Political Report lists five governorships now held by Democrats as either “leaning” Republican or “likely” Republican. Of those five states, four of the legislatures are Republican and one is split between the parties, giving the GOP a good chance to control the redistricting process. Conversely, Cook lists only one governor’s race — for Republican Linda Lingle’s office in Hawaii — as leaning in the Democrats’ favor, and none in the “likely” or “solid” Democrat category. There are no redistricting implications, though, because the Aloha State redraws political lines by independent commission, not legislative edict.
In 17 state legislatures, meanwhile, Democrats maintain a slim advantage in at least one chamber. In a good Republican year, several of those could flip. Even if a Democrat occupies the governor’s office or controls one legislative chamber, the GOP could significantly influence the process and curtail partisan gerrymandering by capturing at least part of the state government. Both national parties understand the implications, which is why they’re pouring $20 million apiece into competitive legislative races, with an eye toward strengthening their hand in redistricting.
Aside from the favorable lineup of races, the political trend is also in Republicans’ favor. Even in the strongly anti-GOP election year of 2008, Republicans managed to defend all of their governorships up for grabs except one in Missouri. Since then, Republicans have been victorious in special elections in Virginia and New Jersey, states where Democrats had a nearly decade-long winning streak in gubernatorial elections.
Reapportionment is another factor upping the stakes. That process moves congressional seats from states that lost population to states that gained. Here again, Republicans have reason to be optimistic. The Washington, D.C., based firm Polidata predicts that 10 states will gain at least one congressional seat and 10 lose at least one after the 2010 census. Of those, all of the losing states except one are in the predominantly Democratic northeast and upper Midwest. On the other hand, all but one of the states gaining seats is in the Republican-friendly Sunbelt, including a projected four-seat pickup for Texas.
The hands that redraw district borders are some of the most powerful in politics. Aside from a handful of state and federal requirements, lawmakers can finagle district lines however they choose. Legislative and congressional districts must be contiguous — meaning all parts touch and none are detached — and each must have an equal number of residents. The federal Voting Rights Act also ties legislators’ hands by requiring them to draw some districts to grant minorities greater electoral power.
Beyond that, the majority party has a wide degree of latitude and the capacity to shut out the minority from the process. To top it off, advances in technology have made it possible to secure almost foolproof partisan advantage by drawing lines down to the minutest detail. The result: gerrymandering such as North Carolina’s 12th Congressional District, alternatively called the “lightning bolt” and “spaghetti” district and dubbed “political pornography” by the Wall Street Journal.
Despite the favorable political tides, however, Republicans should be cautious. Democrats appear to have a better redistricting apparatus on the ground to prime for inevitable legal challenges, and the party seems to be outpacing Republicans in the fundraising department as well. Liberals don’t want a repeat of the last round of redistricting, which led the GOP to historic gains in the 2002 midterms.
In addition, a number of states, including Colorado and California, are weighing ballot measures that would ease partisanship in redistricting. Advocates have long called for independent commissions to handle this important job, but since the lawmakers who benefit from gerrymandering control the process, the cause often gets trampled underfoot.
In the end, though, the political dynamics this year should encourage conservatives. At worst, the GOP will make inroads and expand its influence over the process. And it’s a good thing, too. When the history books are closed, state-level races could be the untold story of 2010 — a story that will be felt for years to come.
him on Twitter @thepundit1.
About the Author
David N. Bass is a journalist who writes from the Old North State. Follow him on Twitter.
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Martin J smith| 7.28.10 @ 8:10AM
Thus it is crucial at all who want to get rid of the BHO agenda must look at all levels of government in elections.
Do not be a jerk and if you have to vote for a RINO ( because its your option against a democrat ) take your pill and do so. The most important thing is accumulate as many votes nationall to demonstrate the numbers that are against the Socialist Left Agenda !!!!!!!!!!!
Bob K.| 7.28.10 @ 8:41AM
Excellent advise Mr. Smith!
Alan Brooks| 7.28.10 @ 1:11PM
As long as the outcome of 2010 is the re-election of Obama, so we don't have a McCain or Dole type in the White House until 2017; we want to put such an eventuality off as long as possible.
Alan Brooks| 7.28.10 @ 1:15PM
... the GOP wouldn't be so foolish as to nominate Jeb Bush for POTUS in 2016-- would they?
No, they are only clueless, not suicidal.
JB from Texas| 7.28.10 @ 5:31PM
Sheet, Brooks, the GOP won't need a Bush in '16. Obama is a one term mule.
Alan Brooks| 7.28.10 @ 5:44PM
Why should we trust you Texans? your state gave us the Bushes (not to mention LBJ).
You made the same mistake Georgia made in '76.
Rush's cigar smoke| 7.28.10 @ 8:22PM
Alan I think you missed you psychiatrist appoinment, your lithium seems to be wearing off....
Convet| 7.29.10 @ 5:37PM
Beyond your attention span, buby?
RiverKing| 7.29.10 @ 1:25PM
Your immediate deflection of Martin Smith's comment on leftist policies and agenda to ad hominem attacks on Republicans is indicative of your liberal position: "If you can't refute ideas, attack personality." Did you learn this from Alinsky or Ayers?
USA Jim| 7.28.10 @ 10:28PM
MARTIN, I am 100% with you!
The Socialist Party of America nearly imploded on itself because of internal bickering, but they learned their lesson and have put on a united front to achieve their end goals. We have to defeat them in order to preserve America. I fear we have only one shot to do this in November. We are close, I think it can be done, if ACORN doesn't steal it through Voter Fraud, or an "emergency" doesn't give obama the excuse to declare Martial Law and shut down the elections. FOCUS! God Bless & Save America!
Kevin Riley O'Keeffe | 7.29.10 @ 12:03PM
That is advice I don't always follow, but in 2010, yeah, I'm briefly turning partisan loyalist. I would ordinarily never vote for a horrid Senate candidate like Carly Fiorina (preferring to register a complain via a third party), but if it means another GOP vote in the Senate, well, I guess I'll hold my nose.
Harry the Horrible| 7.28.10 @ 9:19AM
If the opportunity presents itself, I hope the 'Pubbies use redistricting to ruthlessly reduce the Democrat presence in Washington, DC. You know the Democrats would the same if the situation were reversed.
On the other hand, they don't call the Republicans "The Stupid Party" for nothing.
USA Jim| 7.28.10 @ 10:33PM
The Democrats HAVE DONE IT, every chance they get. Yes, I agree, I hope the Republicans DO IT! Anything to crush the progressive Democrats and their socialist/communist agenda. It's War, people! We need to defeat them at the ballot box so we can preserve our beloved America.
Petronius| 7.28.10 @ 10:09AM
My situation is hopeless on the state level because the Republicans let Dickless Gephart draw the lines here in Mo 3rd because they don't want us for constituents. Conservatives here have to move to the 9th to be represented in Congress.
Louis Jenkins| 7.28.10 @ 10:47AM
Sounds like a good year for Republicans. Let's hope so.
USA Jim| 7.28.10 @ 10:35PM
WE NEED TO STAY FOCUSED. We need to support our Republican Candidates, even if they're not our first choice! We can fine tune, once we get our Country back!! NO INFIGHTING! NO BICKERING!
Irish22| 7.28.10 @ 11:42AM
Yes, we must stop the BHO nightmare express . . . but, human nature being what it is . . . as soon as a man, Democrat or Republican, sits in a "safe" seat he can stop listening, stop governing, start ruling and start passing out favors to his friends. There must be an alternative to shooting the bastards every two years . . .
Alan Brooks| 7.28.10 @ 1:32PM
Do what you have to do, but Obama has GOT to be re-elected, otherwise another chair-warming GOP candidate will be POTUS in 2013.
Purpleguy| 7.28.10 @ 12:14PM
Yep, that's Democracy in action - targeting, GOTV, electioneering - all the things the Founders warned us against ... yep, Republican version of Democracy .. Republicanazis...
Alan Brooks| 7.28.10 @ 3:54PM
The GOP are no more nazis than 'feminazis', they want their families to win big, and others' to lose. They want to democratically push they and their kind as high up the food chain as possible-- which is why we will always have billionaires and people living on the streets.
But you know all that.
Convet| 7.29.10 @ 5:39PM
The return of the Purple People Beater!!!
Indy Voter| 7.28.10 @ 12:40PM
All elections are critical, certainly states...not just for redistricting but to protect the Electoral College
http://realclearpolitics.blogs.....ins-steam/
http://www.nationalpopularvote.com/index.php
Derek Leaberry| 7.28.10 @ 4:30PM
It was a great blessing for the Republicans to lose with McCain in 2008 in a myriad of ways. The upcoming Republican sweep in 2010 and its effect on redistricting is just one of the positives gained by McCain's hiding.
Patzer| 7.28.10 @ 11:38PM
The cost of 4 years of B.O. is nowhere near worth your "blessing."
Rich Rostrom| 7.28.10 @ 4:53PM
The 2010 reapportionment will be made on the results of the 2010 Census.
During the 2000 Census, Democrats pressed for the Census results to be 'adjusted' based on projections about supposed uncounted residents - nearly all of them blacks and Hispanics in urban areas.
This proposal was blocked by the Republican Congress and Presidency.
I expect the 2010 Census to be 'adjusted'. Who will say no? Not Obama, and not the Democrats in Congress. If Republicans control Congress in 2011, they may be able to prevent this outrage. But even then Obama may enable it by executive authority.
This could cost Republicans dozens of seats in 2012 to 2020.
RCV| 7.28.10 @ 6:26PM
Not to mention the thousands of right-wing nuts who listened to Michelle Bachman and didn't cooperate with the census takers.
JimE| 7.28.10 @ 9:06PM
They did the right thing unlike mindless liberal drones like yourself. Proud American unwilling to get on their knees and beg to eat obama's shit like you and purpleasswipe.
RCV| 7.28.10 @ 10:17PM
People couldn't get any dumber than you. A census every ten years is in the Constitution, a document you purportedly revere but haven't ever read. At least the likes of you will be undercounted for representation purposes. (If ever there was a case for applying the 3/5ths clause, you'd be it.)
Conservative Bob| 7.28.10 @ 5:13PM
Our long term best interest as a nation and republic is not to redistrict so as to create lots of new safe Republican seats…
Redistrict so that no seat is safe and the occupant has to compete vigorously every 2 years to keep their seat.
Look at ALL members of congress. These people are able to stay in office as long as they are because on party or the other redrew the lines until it became “safe” meaning the outcome was assured.
That is how we got to where we are. And one of the primary reasons we are on the brink of losing our republic.
Gerrymandering as it has been practiced has helped create the political class that has more in common with each other than voters in their districts. It serves the party hacks and central government.
What has the incumbents and party leaders so upset and worried this year is that seats once thought safe area not this year due to voter outrage over spending and the disconnect between the will of the people and the bills being passed. Want more of that? Make fewer seats safe…
If every district were a tossup, congress would spend a lot more time listening to the folks at home and we would have far fewer folks like Rangel running for his 21 term.
BluGuy | 7.30.10 @ 2:28AM
It's time to increase the number of representatives in the House. We have one of the worst ratios of representatives to voters in the democratic world. Increasing the number of seats would make it easier for non-politicians to run for election and make gerrymandering more difficult.
dave| 7.31.10 @ 10:05AM
CONTARDS ARE STILL TRYING THE SAME OL BULLCRAP AND IT WILL BE SO AMUSING TO WATCH AN EVEN MORE EPIC FAILURE!
Y'all are on the wrong side of history, again. It must become such a pain to always be WRONG.
hahha| 7.31.10 @ 10:08AM
Do any of you contards recall when your dear leader's administration almost flushed this great country down the toilet? Or is that too long ago for your decrepit minds to recall? I mean, a black man was elected as your best representation dropped out of the race.
I guess I'd be salty too.
Keep on pretending your party is anything but the laughing stock of humanity.
We're all amused