Old Jewish joke, if I may. The aged rabbi is breathing his last
in the hospital bed. On his tray a cup of milk sits neglected,
brought earlier by some solicitous nurse. In comes the synagogue
janitor to pay his respects to the man who always treated him
with dignity. He figures the rabbi needs a boost, so he pulls out
his flask and spikes the milk with whiskey. Then he wakes the
patient and all but forces him to down the drink.
Now it is time to take leave of the dying man. “Rabbi, do
you have any words of wisdom before we say goodbye?”
“Don’t sell that cow!”
The Republicans are more or less in the same situation.
They are leading by large margins in the polls but not through
their intrinsic virtue or their irresistible charm or their
overwhelming intellect. Nor are they wielding a résumé of
tangible achievements on behalf of the American public. They are
simply the beneficiaries of having the milk of their banality
pepped by the whiskey of disgust for the Democrats’
statism.
Anytime one party has this much of an edge – 8 or 9 points
in some polls – we are treated to a host of
if-the-election-were-held-today commentaries, the mood varying
based on the preferences of the commentators. The dangers are
manifold and manifest. The first is overconfidence. That is
always a problem when ahead, more so when one has done nothing to
get ahead.
The second problem is that polls showing a lead are less
meaningful when the opponent has the benefit of incumbency. There
are an awful lot more of Democrats than Republicans in the Houses
of Congress, in its belfries and chambers and cellars, and each
one of them has to lose in order for the Republican to win. I
have been in basketball games where we were down 60-40 and we
went on a 15-0 run to cut the lead to 60-55. You feel invincible,
like a winner, like you will never stop scoring, like a
juggernaut that is unstoppable. These feelings may be good
motivators, but a quick look at the scoreboard reminds us that
you are still losing.
The third issue is that failure is not an option. The
Republicans cannot afford to lose both houses again, even by a
nose. If Obama has Pelosi and Reid (or Schumer) as partners for
2011 and 2012, he can bury this country under layers of leftist
legislation which no subsequent President could unravel. Anytime
you must win at all costs, you are not likely to coast. We all
need some margin for error.
But problem #4 is the most treacherous of all. This is the
urgency of maintaining trajectory, the noetic arc if you will,
the line of reasoning, the continuity of narrative. Right now the
story remains clear: Obama exploited the financial crisis to
expend ridiculous sums on ineffective or self-serving things,
then he signed the country on to an insane open-ended commitment
in health care that will sicken our wealth without improving our
health, so the solution is to take Congress from the Democrats in
2010, repeal this monstrosity, stop the spending and then send
Obama back to Illinois in 2012.
If the Republicans allow the financial reform package to
pass before November, they lose this trend line. Suddenly Obama
is an effective leader with bipartisan support accomplishing big
things, even historic ones. The question of whether the law is
good or bad is too murky to follow without the green eyeshade. As
a result, what people will take away is mainly the vibe: success,
victory, achievement, history. It paints the President as a
larger-than-life figure, something he has not been for many
months. The devastation to Republican election hopes would be
immense.
The noises we hear from the Capitol cloakroom on this score
are not reassuring. The impression is the Democrats have swayed
enough Republicans to sign on to this bill. If so, I take the
liberty of predicting that both Houses of Congress will remain in
Democrat hands after November. It is that straightforward.
If you still have the stomach for another joke, I got this
one from an Italian friend. A fellow calls information and asks
for the phone number of John Gotti in Queens. “I’m sorry,” the
operator replies. “I have eight such listings. Could you give me
a street name, please?”
“Yes, Dapper Don.”
No street names for these Republicans if they are not tough
enough. And come November there will be nobody home.
