What is the sound of one hand clapping? Ask the Group of Eight,
also known as the G-8 — which just assembled in Canada to
discuss the state of the world at the picturesque and historic
Deerhurst Resort in Muskoka, Ontario. Its members include Canada,
France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and
the United States.
What was remarkable about this summit, and indeed about the
G-8 itself, is that it excluded the People’s Republic of China,
the world’s second largest economy in terms of purchasing power
parity, and the world’s third largest based on current exchange
rates. One must wonder why its membership includes Italy, hardly
a world power by most standards, and Russia, whose standards of
governance can make it a high risk environment.
It is difficult to imagine a country with such a
complicated profile as China. It is a trade partner, a formidable
competitor in manufacturing, and a potential adversary in the
quest for oil and mineral resources. Its economic success in
recent decades is nothing short of miraculous: China is now the
second largest consumer of oil as well as the world’s largest
exporter. Having moved hundreds of millions of its population
into an aspiring and new middle class, the China economic model
may also offer insights to other emerging nations, particularly
regarding the importance of foreign direct investment and an
export driven economy.
Relegated to G-20 status (at the subsequent meetings of
that Group in Muskoka), China is therefore optically positioned
as a second tier global player, along with countries such as
Argentina, Australia, Indonesia, and South Korea.
Relations with China embrace a wide matrix of issues. They
include charges of currency manipulation resulting in huge trade
imbalances and holdings of U.S. monetary instruments; a control
freak export economy; weapons sales to Taiwan; relations with the
exiled Dalai Lama; differences over human rights; intrusions in
cyberspace and Internet censorship; world climate policy; the
ascent of a blue water navy and the projection of power; and
support for the so-called axis of evil. Very recently, India and
Brazil have joined American and European calls for an upward
movement of China’s controlled currency, the Renminbi also known
as the Yuan, making economic relations no longer an issue among
China and Western or former colonial powers, but rather with the
entire world.
At the G-8 summit, North Korea was criticized for its
nuclear weapons development, with the G-8 calling for cessation
of such activity. North Korea was further castigated for its
alleged sinking of a South Korean warship. Further concerns were
expressed over Iran’s continuing nuclear aspirations and
expressed commitment to enrichment activity.
China, of course, has more influence than most with those
two rogue regimes. As noted by the Council on Foreign Relations
in a July 2009 publication, China is the leading sponsor of North
Korea since 1950, and its largest provider of weapons, fuel and
food, also having opposed economic sanctions against the
government of Kim Jong Il. In the case of Iran, China imports an
estimated 15% of its oil from that country, its second most
important supplier after Saudi Arabia. China has also vigorously
opposed sanctions against Tehran.
Obviously, something is wrong with this picture. A
nuclear-armed country with extensive ties with two of the most
dangerous nations on earth is not at the table as a first class
citizen in the august G-8. A country with aspirations that
challenge the current world order and the naval power of the
United States in the Pacific is seen but not heard as a
peer.
China’s disrespect for human rights and the way it has
mandated economic development are at odds with principles of
liberal democracy. And there is also fear of China’s increasing
military capacity, as evidenced by a report of the U.S. Naval
Institute in March 2009 regarding Chinese efforts to produce a
Mach ten anti-ship missile for use against U.S. Carrier Strike
Groups.
There are no simple formulas to govern relations with
China, but engagement is preferable to isolation. And given
China’s surreal economic progress and power, as well as the
composition of the G-8 which includes peripheral world players as
well as a Russia that is fundamentally hostile to U.S. and
European interests, it’s time to rethink the criteria for
membership in the club.
