The biggest news at the Canadian G-8 and G-20 summits
was that the United States held to the position of the need for
additional stimulus, while the other majors all had decided the
time had come to tighten their belts. The Obama administration
just doesn’t get it. But we knew that beforehand, didn’t we? What
was important was what swirled around the event.
The arrest of the ten deep cover agents of Russia at the
end of the G-8 and G-20 summits carries with it a significance
far beyond the immediate fact of the counterintelligence action.
The Obama administration had just wound up a lengthy and
complicated courting of President Medvedev of Russia in
conjunction with an aggressive effort along the same line as
Germany.
Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian president and big time
businessman, had arranged with Washington for a high profile
visit to the U.S. with special attention to Silicon Valley. It
had been all excellently staged if only the McChrystal affair
hadn’t stolen the spotlight. It had been planned for Obama and
Medvedev to bask in what the White House adviser on Russian
affairs, Michael McFaul, characterized as developing “…a
multidimensional relationship with Russia.”
In plain English this meant Medvedev wants American
investment and technical assistance in modernizing Russian
scientific and technological industries which includes, among
other things, civilian nuclear cooperation. Most important to
Medvedev, however, was a willingness of Obama to discuss measures
to assist Moscow’s efforts to gain membership in the World Trade
Organization (WHO).
The context of the US/Russia discussions is considerably
broader than immediately seen. The German chancellor, Angela
Merkel, has encouraged investment negotiations at the highest
Russo/German level on a new political economic security
relationship. With Russia supplying about 40% of Germany’s
natural gas needs, this was an obvious next step.
The Germans are already heavily invested in Russia. Like
their interest in the U.S. Silicon Valley, the Russians are
increasingly involved in obtaining German technology and the
assistance that goes along with it. Both Medvedev and Putin
recently have emphasized the need for Russia to move out of the
limitations placed on it by being primarily a commodities
exporter. Angela Merkel has argued within the EU that movement
toward integrating Russia into a broader European relationship
through increased joint venturing with Germany creates a valuable
security dynamic.
Here’s where things get a bit sticky. Not only is there a
growing potential economic relationship between Berlin and
Moscow, but if such an entente is created, the unity of
NATO is politically threatened. If Germany independently leans
toward an economic balance with Russia, its pivotal role in the
European Union will be put under considerable stress. While
Merkel has emphasized that a security bond be forged between
Russia and the EU rather than Germany alone, there clearly is
unease among its traditional Western partners — and serious
upset in Poland.
It seemed that once again Moscow had become the darling of
the class. The Americans seemed to be in the midst of another
“slobbering love affair” (a hat tip to Bernie Goldberg). This
time it was the Russians rather than the Chinese. President Hu
Jintao had to be satisfied with an invitation for a state visit
to the White House. Clearly this courtesy was to balance Obama’s
recent courting of Moscow. For some reason the Obama
administration seems to think being liked by key opponents is
more important than being respected. To that end Washington
appears to be doing all it can to find political gifts with which
to shower adversaries.
As President Medvedev was touring the United States, the
State Department announced it would designate the Chechen leader,
Doku Umarov, as a jihadi terrorist whose carefully
orchestrated attacks on Russian targets “illustrate the global
nature of the terrorist problem we fight today.” The Russian
Foreign Ministry responded by calling its American counterpart’s
action “an important acceptance of the indivisible and universal
nature of international terrorist threats.” Both sides now have
the difficult task of handling the roll-up of the Russian net of
agents-of-influence. It’s as if the White House and State
Department either ignored or had no knowledge of their own
counterintelligence operation.
The saccharin sweet policy positioning would be acceptable
if both sides benefited. But there appears no sign that’s the
case. By example, the Security Council’s Iranian sanctions accord
that Russia and China signed on for, and to which Brazil and
Turkey did not, was so toothless that Tehran took it as a
victory. The arrest of the ten Russian agents purportedly
targeted at “influencing policy development” certainly should
wake up the embarrassingly amateur Obama Administration. So much
for their “new kind” of diplomacy.
President Obama enjoys summits. They give him a chance to
posture on the international scene. Both the G-8 and G-20 have
figured out that they don’t have to do anything but let him
preen. They then go about their own way without losing a step.
The G-8 heaped praise on him for the tightening of American
financial regulations, ignored everything else, and went home
leaving the president of the United States thinking once again he
was successful, even though every one of his policy
recommendations was turned down.
There’s a message in such international behavior, but will
this American president ever really get it? Thanks to U.S.
counterintelligence, the White House may no longer be able to
avoid the obvious.
