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Washington Prowler
Obama’s Funny Numbers
Economic growth that invariably turns out stunted.
Last week, as Congress failed to pass a bill that would have extended unemployment benefits, the Obama White House put out talking points for Democrats on Capitol Hill going home to their districts, as well as to the talking head class, pushing the message that Republicans were “sabotaging” the U.S. economic recovery for political gain.
By Sunday those points were being pushed on the blogosphere and elsewhere, but some Republicans on Capitol Hill are wondering whether the Obama Administration isn’t cooking the books itself, pushing out overly optimistic economic data that allows the President and his minions to claim economic successes, knowing that their economic data will almost certainly not hold up under full analysis. They note that over the past year, quarterly GDP reports — heavily pushed by the White House press office — have had to be revised downward at least once, sometimes twice per quarter.
“The first report comes with the administration trumpeting growth and that stimulus is working and all that,” says a Senate leadership aide. “And then a month later, it’s quietly put out that the economic growth numbers had to be revised down. The media reports on the first report, but rarely gives the revised numbers the same level of attention.”
Back in April, the Commerce Department reported that the first quarter 2010 gross domestic product, which measures consumer spending, grew at what was termed a “sustainable” rate of 3.2%, and the Obama Administration insisted that this growth indicated that the economy was on an upswing, albeit a fragile one. By last week, the GDP number had been revised down not once, but two times. The final GDP growth number: 2.7 percent.
Similar revisions have taken place over the course of the Obama Administration. Perhaps the most dramatic were the third quarter 2009 numbers, which indicated that the economy grew at a 3.5 percent rate. That number was first revised down to 2.8 percent and finally to 2.2 percent. The last number was crucial, because, as analysts noted, there was little positive growth in the U.S. economy other than that created by the federal “cash for clunkers” program.
“It seems that every time the Administration steps out with numbers that show their plan is working, we find out later that the numbers are off, sometimes badly off,” says a Republican House Ways and Means staffer. “You saw it just the past couple of weeks with the unemployment numbers. You had Biden out there claiming we were all going to be happy with the numbers, and then bang, all of the job growth numbers were Census jobs. The numbers are always revised, we just wish the media took the initial reports with a grain of salt and didn’t push the Obama message so hard.”
A White House staffer thinks, however, that the “cooked books” angle is overblown: “It just happens that we aren’t coming close to hitting the advance mark by the time the final is released. Some quarters are worse than others. The final fourth quarter number (5.3 percent) came in very close to the estimate (5.6 percent), no one is pointing a finger there.”
It isn’t entirely the Obama Administration’s fault that its economic numbers keep getting downgraded. The Commerce Department releases GDP reports for each quarter in three stages: an “advance” estimate, followed by a “preliminary” and a “final.” Generally the reports are released over a six-week to two-month period. As a rule, if the numbers in the advance and preliminary rounds are considered “positive” by the White House, the press operation pushes the data hard.
“They know they may only get one shot at positive press on the economy, and the GDP numbers may be it,” says a former Obama Administration Treasury Department official. “For their purposes, they don’t care if those numbers are going to be downgraded two weeks from whenever, all they care about is getting their guy out there to tout what they want the American people to believe is a recovering economy that was the result of their policies. The problem is, a month later it’s a different story and it’s a crap shoot whether anyone will be paying attention then. They are already looking ahead to the next quarter’s report.”
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Ret. Marine| 6.28.10 @ 6:31AM
O.k. so we get it already. Question. what to do? Answer, Please look at this, someonediedformetoday and consider. If this is what We the People want, we must initiate and follow through. It's no longer about the BS, it's all about the lieing from these thugs and now We the People have a choice to make. Do we allow this fraud, usurper-n-theif, commonly known as the "won" the only barry, aka, barack hussein obama, other wise known as the TOTUS of these United States to continue to commit fraud against us or do we want him removed and charged with "high crimes and misdemeanors"? your choice folks, let's start this fire storm. Get rollong folks, this is our opportunity, he can talk all he and the gaffe mister wants but, no doubt he will be on the loosing sode of these issues.
Bill| 6.28.10 @ 7:39AM
Lets roll. We will remember in November and the next November until we have them all out of office. Time to round them up and start the trials. BO is involved in the Chicago political mess and knows all just like Blogo does. There is no way BO got to where he is without being a front man for someone like GS perhaps.
Rod Davis | 6.28.10 @ 11:13PM
Less you forget, Bush took eight good years to trash the economy of America. He took six years to get us into - but not out of, two armed conflicts! He spent more money in eight years then any other president in the history of this nation - ten trillion!
Now you want to get BHO out and put another Republican in there so your party can finish the job of burying the economy of America. The mere fact that you are writing this BS tells me that we are in worst shape then I originally thought. A country full of illiterate voters can't possibly be responsible for the choices that they make.
I read Bush's agenda in 2003 and found a new home outside of the United States. I didn't lose anything when the markets and economy went to hell in a hand basket. I am sitting over here listening to you wish and plan for more of what you got for eight years from Bush Jr.
Get rolling folks... vote yourself even further into a financial and political hole!
Wally| 6.29.10 @ 2:39AM
Obama has increased our national debt 4X since his election--please grow a pair, take responsibility for your failed liberal policies and stop your whining about GWB.
We're tired of you loser libs' BS.
Wherever you are--please stay there, moron; you're just one fewer liberal jackass to deal with.
Blameitonbushisgettingold| 8.30.10 @ 10:52PM
How people forget that the Dems took over the houses in 2006, are they not responsible for any of that debt? Seems like the shite hit the fan a few years after that. If you want to see how well liberalism works just take a look at California, that's what entitlements, illegal immigration, and being taxed to the point you leave the state will do for you. Also 8 of the top 10 indebted states are blue states along with 2 red states from the south. This is how we should run our country? I'm glad you left the country one less idiot to vote for Obama.
Mark MacInnis| 6.28.10 @ 8:00AM
My group of close friends and I have noticed this trend a long time ago. I have even coined a name for it MacInnis' Law on Government Statistics 37, to wit: Any government-published economic or employment statistic will be overstated by approximately 37%, and will be subsequently revised downward to reflect reality with little media notice." For short, we cit MLOGS37...it is insidious and intentional and should be considered criminal manipulation of stock markets.....
Bill Hussein O'Stalin| 6.28.10 @ 8:11AM
We may be headed for a double dip recession, a rare event. Although we have spent over 7 trillion on government entitlements since the dawn of The Great Society launched by LBJ, the poverty rate has moved only 1/10th of one percent.
You would think we would have learned something.
Irish22| 6.28.10 @ 7:33PM
Saw a CA congresswoman making the case that we have spent billions on the war in Afghanistan with nothing to show for it; therefore, we should give up. I was screaming at the TV set your exact point: we haven't won the "war on poverty," but do they want to give up on that? In the twilight of my cynicism I realized that Liberals never intend to win any war.
Rod Davis | 6.28.10 @ 11:22PM
I beg your pardon, we had the war in Afghanistan won until someone with a lot more to do with the change in policy said that 'we don't have anymore good targets to bomb in Afghanistan - let's start a war in Iraq.'
That dumb mistake is what has cost us the war in Afghanistan and the money that we threw out the window in Iraq. We are there because we allowed Rumsfeld and company to steer the President into telling untruths to substantiate a war under false pretenses.
How soon we forget our history of the past ten years! Liberals don't make wars, they reluctantly clean up the mess that Conservatives make when they are in office!
Wally| 6.29.10 @ 2:44AM
We've been fighting the war on poverty for nearly 50 years now, bonehead; we've spent trillions of dollars and all we have is more dead and destroyed inner cities to show for it. That's what liberalism has done for this country.
BTW--Vietnam was started by JFK and LBJ and Nixon got us out of YOUR debacle. Dumb ass.
Liberals are a disaster for our country.
John| 8.17.10 @ 12:04PM
Actually, learn your history. Kennedy DID NOT start Vietnam. He inherited it from Eisenhower. He was actually starting the process of getting us out (NSAM 263). By the way, both IKE and JFK only officially sent military advisers. It was LBJ that started sending combat troops.
crookedwren| 6.28.10 @ 8:26AM
Bill H O'S --
Yes, you'd think we'd have learned something.
But the propagandists in the media and in our educational system do not want us to learn that socialism ends up in lowered standards of living for more people, that its a slow death march into Communism or Fascism or some kind of similar cockeyed mix.
No, they do not want us to learn.
And for most of us (including me until October of 2008 when I recognized with horror what was taking place -- and had been for all of my adult life), well, we didn't WANT to learn it.
I really don't much care for fighting for life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. I just want to enjoy it.
But I'm in this battle of ideologies now. 'Cause I want that life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness for my sons and grandchildren.
Better that than ObamaCare, perpetual and unending debt, and Union-ChicagoPolitics-Cap&Taxery;-Marxist/Maoist-InternetRestricting-THUGGERY. Which is what we're knee-deep in now.
DesertFox| 6.28.10 @ 5:51PM
crookwren,
"But I'm in this battle of ideologies now. 'Cause I want that life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness for my sons and grandchildren".
You are talking about that piece of paper written by a bunch of old white guys back in 1776, right?
Amen to that!
lakewoodbob| 6.29.10 @ 1:25AM
I often see the comment 'old white guys' with reference to the Founders, but people should be know of the truth!
In 1776 - Here are their ages:
John Adams -41
Alexander Hamilton - 20
Thomas Jefferson - 33
James Madison - 25
George Washington - 44
Samuel Adams - 54
John Jay - 31
Benjamin Franklin - 70 ( he was an old guy)
Thomas Paine - 39
Benjamin Rush - 30
Nathan Hale - 21
John Hancock - 39
Louis Jenkins| 6.28.10 @ 8:51AM
Jiggle, Jiggle, Jiggle. That's all it is. A game of numbers that in the end have no meaning for us dupes in the trenches. This nation is dying on the vine because of it. Far better to be given the actual figures than for the Pretender n Chief to espouse a lie. Of course, there's a time lag between now and one or two months. Otherwise we'd be committing suicide on a daily basis. Can't have that. Got keep us alive and producing for the giant all consuming government maw of tax receipts.
Warrior | 6.28.10 @ 10:52AM
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics." - Disraeli
Junius| 6.28.10 @ 9:25AM
The Obama government can issue all of the propaganda GDP numbers they want, but the reality is that the economy is not getting better, unemployment continues to rise, and we are in a depression and not a recession. It seems that the new economic catch phase is "double dip recession" which implies that we came out of the first recession and are now heading to a new recession which is just spin. We started out in a recession and have slumped into a depression. Things have not gotten any better, period. And I don't need some economic degree to figure that out.
Maddox| 6.28.10 @ 9:47AM
"but some Republicans on Capitol Hill are wondering whether the Obama Administration isn't cooking the books itself"
Those of us who work and live in the real world have KNOWN all along the books were being cooked.
What took Republicans so long to just "wonder?"
The disconnect between political leaders and America is unbelievable.
Junius, above, is correct, we are in a depression and King Obama, his thugs, and his adoring press will not be able to change that with their lies.
Gill O’Teen ✝✡| 6.28.10 @ 10:19AM
I’ve noticed lately that when the DOW creeps up even a dollar, the hourly network radio news, including FOX, is all tingly up and down their legs about what a positive sign of economic recovery this is; however, all is silent when the trend makes even a slight reversal. The US Debt/GDP ratio hit 90%, the point of unsustainablility, using numbers from http://www.usdebtclock.org, last May 4. It appears to be on track to hit 100% next April. Why wasn’t this trumpeted by MSM? Through June 4, the number of people working showed a daily increase. This is to be expected since the population also keeps increasing. However, starting June 4 and through last Friday, the number of people working has dropped an average of 84,560 per day. This is skewed by a huge drop recorded June 7, a Monday, of1,247,416. Since that drastic drop, the daily average has been 1,499. Since June 4, the population has jumped from 309,422,558 on June 4 to 309,587,800 last Friday an average increase of 11,016 daily. More significantly, as a percentage of the population, the number working has declined from 45.052% to 45.024%. Any decrease is bad. The good news is that the number of people either working federal jobs or receiving food stamps has increased. The gum’mint has brought inflation under control by the simple act of not using commodities people actually buy to compute their numbers. Brilliant. That is why I started tracking the CCI which not only lists that day’s closing value, but the value a year ago. last Friday the current value was $477.72. A year ago it was $401.87. This is a $75.85 increase, 18.8743%, a number reminiscent of the Carter years. In the meantime, Europe is melting, kommie loons are rioting at G20-Canada, many US states are facing a constitutional crisis this week because of huge budget deficits, and OUR gum’mint has seized control of healthcare, car companies, the banks and has cast covetous looks upon the energy sector. obummer, his tax-cheating treasurer and his Gutenberg apprentice at the fed are following an economic model that has failed every time it’s been tried since it only robs Peter to pay Paul. In their praxis, Peter is anyone with an income, and Paul is a politically connected burglar.
Gill O’Teen ✝✡
gill.Oteen07041776@gmail.com
“It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest.” - Adam Smith
Only 937 days to go.
hunter| 6.28.10 @ 10:32AM
Gill O' teen, You are so right, couldn't have said it better myself. Thanks.
Grzmlyk| 6.28.10 @ 11:03AM
If you look carefully, you can see that the presidential seal has been altered. Around the familar logo is a Latin phrase which translates roughly to, "Who are you going to believe? Me or your lying eyes?"
And the mainstream media giggles and squeals, "YOU, Mr. Obama, patron saint of the would-be cool nerd-journalists and protector of the wholly ignorant!"
Every poltician lies. The problem is that Obama NEVER tells the truth. The old Soviet propaganda mill has nothing on this corrupt, illegitimate administration.
Clinton nee Publius | 6.28.10 @ 11:23AM
The structure of our economic society is not self-sustaining or self-regulating in nature. The practical outcome of this structure is that it allows corruption to occur for the purposes of allowing one group of stakeholders in the economy to enjoy exclusive economic rights at the cost and risk of other stakeholders in the economy.
Lovellian Economics states that for an economic society to be self-sustaining in nature, all stakeholders must enjoy equal rights and have equal responsibilities (not equal outcomes!), otherwise; the economy will not grow in a linear fashion - it will cycle between growth and recession.
The issue is uncontrolled spending - the government always spends more money than it receives in tax receipts so we end up with this national debt that we will never pay off. We use a democratic system of government and that means the people who make the decisions about government spending don't have to pay the bills, so they have no reason to curb their spending. THIS MEANS THAT GOVERNMENT SPENDING IS - BY DEFINITION - AN UNLIMITED ACTIVITY.
On the other hand we know that taxation is a limited resource. When you try to address an unlimited activity with a limited resource the outcome must be a failure - this is why we have $13 trillion in national debt. If this postulate of Lovellian Economics was not true, then we would have no deficits as taxation would pay all our bills.
To resolution of this conundrum requires a sober assessment of the problem, the causal factors and the measures for relief. In our economic society all stakeholders (individuals, businesses, charities and units of government) obtain money the same way: they earn it; they receive it as gifts; or, they steal it. These are the only ways and these represent the measures we may use to solve the problem of needing a measure to address the unlimited activity of government spending.
So how do you fix unlimited spending?
Well, history tells us the average democracy only lasts around 200 years because the people vote themselves gifts from the treasury until the society is bankrupted and tyranny or feudalism replaces the democracy. This points to the causal factor of politicians using the treasury for corrupt purposes and the end is always the same - failure. It's not "if" the democracy will fail, the real issue is only when it will happen. So, do you feel lucky?
Taxation is theft. You are taking the money from people and this is a limited activity. You can only take so much of it before they seek to end it one way or another. Taxation has never been a sustainable system of paying for the costs of government in the 10,000 years of recorded human history. This tells us that for our society to survive and prosper, we have to find another way of paying for the costs of government and that way CANNOT be TAXATION.
We know we can't depend upon people making gifts to the government as a way of covering unlimited spending. It's not any more of a realistic solution than taxation.
This leaves earning. In our economy society you earn money by the work of your own hand and by investing. Generally speaking, the more you invest the less you have to work until you reach a point where you don't have to work for the rest of your life. The practical application of this principle is to understand that investing can be an unlimited activity.
Wait a minute - did you read that? Investing may be an unlimited activity? That would mean there may be the opportunity to address one unlimited activity (government spending) with an unlimited resource (investment income).
When you make equity investments these are all stimulative in nature and that would change everything about our society. You see, we create money using the liability inflation method and that means no money exists in our economy that is not already owed to someone else - that someone being the banking industry. This is why there is no real wealth in our society and why our banking system continually fails and we have all these problems with unemployment and recessions. On the other hand, if you use the equity inflation method, then each dollar comes to exist in exchange for the government receiving equity securities and the future income from these equity securities is what is used to pay the costs of government. These securities also support the value of the currency in a way the gold standard never could because equity securities can be structured to have a feature that adjusts for inflation. So now you have monetary policy and fiscal policy tied to the same actions and this means only great things for our economic society.
The practical application of this methodology is to create the circumstances where all government spending becomes "new money" to the economy and that means that the recession can end and unemployment can end whenever we decide that the principles of Lovellian Economics are more important than the monopsony of the banking industry and the corruption of the political class. This would also cause a permanent end to recessions as the economy would be forced to only act in one way - it would grow. This approach would be both self-regulating and self-sustaining for our economy and leave government no means by which to corrupt our society for its benefit and at our cost and risk.
Now wouldn't that be good news? Wouldn't that be better than a government that has to lie to us to justify its very existence?
JP| 6.28.10 @ 11:45AM
I'm surprised not more people in the GOP do not explain the obvious: the Dems can have all of the unemployment benefit extensions they want as long as they make proportional cuts elsewhere. That is, afterall a Democratic rule.
Ken (Old Texican)| 6.28.10 @ 12:52PM
Clinton Publius,
May I derive a cute ...short ...explanation for the youngsters here who are now looking at their screen with eyes going round and round?
Two ways to earn money:
1. Man, (person), at work.
2. dollars at work.
In the real world may I suggest that "dollars at work"...allow persons to go to work.
The only question is ...Who does the "person" work for?
An employer of mutual choice?
da gubmint massa' ?
Clinton nee Publius | 6.28.10 @ 3:49PM
Never the government. Under this system government would enter the private-sector economy and make equity security investments in a specific class of securities on a specific public exchange in a way that would not distort the market, expose the government to program trading losses, expose the government to fraud or allow the government to corrupt companies. We call this the "Goldilocks Solution" as it is the solution that economists have been looking for but unable to find in order to make the investment income model of government revenue generation work. There's a power point presentation available on this topic at http://www.thefixbookstore.com/TheFix97.pps - in case you want to learn more.
Bob Miller| 6.28.10 @ 3:05PM
A general-purpose headline for this era:
Unexpectedly, (name an economic condition) got worse in the last (name a time period), baffling the experts.
Emma| 6.28.10 @ 4:46PM
I sure hope the republicans aren't as stupid as they sound in comments like those included in this article.
"The first report comes with the administration trumpeting growth and that stimulus is working and all that," says a Senate leadership aide. "And then a month later, it's quietly put out that the economic growth numbers had to be revised down..."
Oooooo~~really?????????? You just figured that out, did you? Or you figured it out 8 months ago (or more...like the rest of us) and just now got around to commenting on it???
No wonder the fraud shakes in his boots when he hears the republicans coming down the hall. Not. God help us. The so-called conservatives in Congress and the republican caucus sure aren't able to.
Grzmlyk| 6.28.10 @ 6:38PM
The eternal fecklessness of the GOP will be proven (yet again) during the Kagan confirmation hearings.
There will be a little cluck-clucking, a little tsk-tsking, and then she'll sail through with people like Lindsey Graham firmly affixed to her backside.
Of course, the Dems invariably put up a no-holds-barred fight to the death whenever a Republican selects a nominee to the court.
The Repubs just roll over on their backs and beg the media to pet their tummies.
It's just too depressing.
Clinton nee Publius | 6.28.10 @ 7:15PM
I wish this were not true, but they are all so corrupt and so concerned about pandering to the State Media Collective they never remember their principles until they want our money and votes.
BREDNG10| 6.28.10 @ 8:18PM
GRZ,The republicans should fight EVERYTHING this administration does period.Everything they do has a purpose and will come back to haunt them,especially the scotus who could be there for 40 years.This is a fight to the finish,good vs evil plain and simple.There will probably be a lot of obama`s overreaching that will go to the scotus in the future.He wants to pack the court with like thinking commies for the coming fights.
Mimi| 6.29.10 @ 9:30AM
BREDNG 10.......Youv'e said it....BRAVO...Everything we've all been thinking!! SCOTUS has thrown Liberty some good news.... Kagan is a people pleaser lib. Hope we hear some loud noise here from the Repub's.
Yosemeti Sam| 6.29.10 @ 2:44AM
There we have it folks - in short the November elections will be decided on how many voters will be of those who can be - fooled all the time!
New Jordans | 7.8.10 @ 2:38AM
Thank you for sharing
UGGSSALE | 7.19.10 @ 9:54PM
There we have it folks - in short the November elections will be decided on how many voters will be of those who can be - fooled all the time