Everyone from the National Review’s Jim Geraghty to
non-partisan Congressional prognosticator Stuart Rothenberg
predicts big gains for the GOP at the federal level this
fall. In fact, Real Clear Politics’
Sean Trende says he “wouldn’t be shocked to see Democratic
losses eclipse 100 seats” in the House.
While the opportunity exists for the GOP to make large
gains — yes, gains greater than 1994, in fact more akin to 1894
(when the GOP picked up 130 seats in the House) — Republicans
are likely to leave a lot of opportunities on the table come
November, for several reasons:
The dismal poll numbers of both parties highlights the gap
between this opportunity for electoral success and the reality on
the ground. Yes,
according to Gallup, public approval of the Democratic Party
is hovering near an all-time low, and President Obama’s
job approval rating has dropped below 50 percent. All of this
should be considered good news for Republicans. Yet, voters
haven’t exactly fallen in love with the GOP brand, either.
Although Republicans
may be leading on the latest generic ballot for Congress,
public approval of the GOP is seven points lower than the
Democratic Party. The low public opinion of both parties is
reflected in the number of voters who call themselves
independents — voters who don’t identify strongly with either
party is reaching record levels.
With both parties struggling to make inroads with voters,
weak candidates who expect to ride the coattails of the party
brand are in for a rough slide. Unfortunately for the GOP, the
dissatisfied independents of 2010 care little about which party
controls Congress, so the typical game plan of running against
the party in power is unlikely to be effective. These voters will
not hold their nose and vote for weaker candidates just for the
sake of “change.” Although candidates who present themselves as
shock jocks in pin stripes can grab the early headlines, they
need to do more than just peddle this year’s version of “hope” if
they want to keep these voters engaged through Election Day. The
cynical voter of 2010 is looking for competent candidates who
have ideas to back up their message.
Take the situation of
Rand Paul in Kentucky. Voters took a chance on the Tea
Party-backed eye doctor in the state’s GOP Senate primary. Less
than a week later, he proceeded to publicly question the
authority of the 1964 Civil Rights Act, then state on Good
Morning America that President Obama’s criticism of BP for
its handling of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill was “un-American” at
a time when most Americans are suspicious of corporate America.
Paul needs to realize GOP candidates get no honeymoon period;
their opponents and the media are poised to exploit any error or
gaffe. Paul’s high-profile missteps only add to the questions
over whether he is ready for prime time.
Even when the candidate has ideas and a plan, Republicans
also must guard against “Lazy Candidate Syndrome” — the tendency
to believe money or demographics or past voting trends
predetermine results. “Vote Republican because I’m not the other
guy” didn’t work for John McCain in 2008, and it won’t work for
unprepared, undisciplined candidates in 2010. For all the changes
that have come to politics and campaigning in recent years,
pressing the flesh and appearing at festivals, ball games, and
community events remain the most effective ways to build support.
Retail politicking can make winners of underdogs and ensure
frontrunners don’t get caught from behind.
Ask Virgil Goode about the power of retail politics. In
2008, the Republican six-term Congressional incumbent, Goode
seemed safe even in a bad year for the GOP and with President
Obama at the top of the ticket. But his opponent, Democrat
Tom Perriello, didn’t accept the conventional wisdom. He
raised enough money and connected with enough voters to pull off
one of the biggest upsets of 2008. Goode underestimated his
opponent, and it showed. The 2010 candidate can take nothing for
granted.
The final wild cards in the 2010 contest for control of
Congress are the third party (or no-party) candidates. The
Rubio-Meeks-Crist three way contest is an extreme example of this
dynamic, where the third-party candidate (Crist) could win in the
general election. More typical is the situation that is
likely to occur this year in Virginia’s 5th congressional
district, where the passions that have animated multiple
insurgent candidates could continue past the primary season and
become independent bids in the general election. The self-funded
third-party candidate who siphons just 1 or 2 percentage points
could save the incumbent Democrats in more than a few House swing
districts come Election Day.
Certainly the electoral map remains fluid. As Scott Brown
demonstrated, no party or candidate “owns” a seat. Let’s leave
the sense of entitlement to Democrats and get out there and work
for the votes this fall. If we want change in Congress, WE need
to play our A game now, not the blame game come November.
