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At Large
The King and Us
Thailand is a key U.S. ally — why is the Obama administration ignoring the bloody civil breakdown in that country?
There has been a studious effort by the State and Defense Departments to avoid referencing the bloody civil breakdown in Thailand that has endangered the security of this key ally of American interests in Southeast Asia. As pockets of armed resistance continue to be sought out and mopped up in the rural north, the question exists as to whether the Red Shirt resistance movement that recently brought thousands of violent demonstrators into the streets of central Bangkok will regroup once again to launch another attack on the Thai government.
The Red Shirt movement began among the rural poor — and urbanized factory workers. There is little doubt that what originally was a small grass root dissidence eventually was given direction by the money and organization of Thaksin Shimawatra, the exiled former prime minister ousted in a 2006 military coup. Originally convicted on corruption charges, the wealth telecom mogul, Thaksin, fled to Dubai. He is now wanted under Thailand’s terrorism statutes and will be sought on international warrants.
The bloody demonstrations led by the Thaksin-financed “United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship” held on to 740 acres of downtown Bangkok for six weeks and sporadically brought violent protests elsewhere in the city for at least a month earlier. Finally wearying of dealing with the defiance of the Thaksin-encouraged activists, the Thai army and special riot police attacked the demonstrators’ barricades and cleared the city center. Estimates vary, but 82-85 protestors died in the two months of fighting, fourteen of whom fell at the time of the government assault. The military and police forces announced eleven dead on their side over the sixty-day period. Hundreds were wounded and injured in total on both sides.
To a hardened world this may seem a low number of casualties for such a lengthy confrontation, but this must be viewed in the context of the turmoil and anti-government clashes that have been going on for the last several years. This occasion brought on the torching of the stock exchange, the country’s largest shopping mall, and stores and cinemas in Bangkok’s main commercial district. Unlike in the past, King Bhumibol Adulyadej, 82 years old and ill, has not been able to act as Thailand’s unifying and peace-preserving figure.
There are two elements that have held together Thailand’s form of government that they like to refer to as their unique democracy. The first element is the armed forces in its several forms — and the second is the king and the institution of the monarchy. For the most part the two have been well linked in the past to preserve the peace and prosperity that has come over the years to this nation. Democracy is seen as following from that linkage.
There has been a political consensus formed around the monarchy and its role as patron protector of Thailand’s democratic governance. This conservative anchor was not only important for the nation itself, but it provided a strong pro-western national structure on which the United States and its regional partners could count. From a military standpoint Thailand has acted as a bulwark against communist expansion in general and Chinese growth of power in Southeast Asia in particular.
Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn, the king’s heir, however, does not have a popular following nor is Thailand an acquiescent society desirous of a monarchy continuing to act as national arbiter and source of crises resolution. The concept of the monarchy may still be enjoyed, but a king backed by his army is not the republican form of government that most observers believe modern Thailand now seeks.
Thailand is now divided socio-economically between the generally well-off royalist class and the large body of farmer/worker political groupings. The latter may respect their old king but no longer have a sense of depending on the throne and its traditional elites to guide them. The old structure is definitely being challenged.
The United States under many administrations has accepted the effective military/monarchy partnership as essential to the maintenance of the Thai form of democracy. Washington may have to accept an altered construct in the future in order to insure Thailand’s continued strategic alignment.
This power shift in Thailand is a major factor in Southeast Asian affairs even if the myopic White House is unable or unwilling to recognize this fact. The impression is given that the Administration simply wishes these nettlesome issues, such as those in Thailand, Philippines, and even the ever-belligerent North Korea, would just go away so that Washington’s inner circle can concentrate on perpetuating their own self-perceived monarchy.
About the Author
George H. Wittman writes a weekly column on international affairs for The American Spectator online. He was the founding chairman of the National Institute for Public Policy.
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Melvin| 5.28.10 @ 7:21AM
The big eared one is doing the exact same thing that the peanut farmer did with the Shah. Nothing, but offering his sanctimonious silence while a once staunch ally enters it's death throws.
Obama and the Democrats won't stop until the United States is completely alone and isolated to the point that the UN will create a, "Consensus," of, "Alliance of Civilizations," that will summarily deem that the United States is full of a bunch of racist, bigoted, war mongering, homophobic, angry, former European white males.
The United Nations should be kicked out and the building torn down and replaced with a sewage treatment facility, because we will never get rid of the contamination caused by that vile, and disgusting organization.
Charles Stevens| 5.28.10 @ 9:34AM
This article and the western press have repeatedly misrepresented this issue. Listen please, if you want to hear what's really going on...
My assessment, based on research and talks with Thais over the past few years (including my relatives) leads me to believe that the current government presents a real danger, since it is lead by Muslims who are attempting not only control of the government, but also control of the monarchy.
The shadowy figure behind the current government is General Prem Tinsulandona, for decades a royal adviser and a distant royal relative. The problem with him is twofold: he's a Muslim, and he lusts for power, even to the point of supplanting the royal family. He is the acknowledged force behind the 2006 coup, and the unacknowledged power behind the current PM and what now remains of the monarchy. King Bhumibol lead his people to greater prosperity and enlightened democratic government, but for at least the last year he has been hospitalized with an undisclosed illness. Consequently his leadership is now gone, replaced by the Queen and her son the Crown Prince, both of whom have what can politely be called controversy surrounding their characters and ultimate goals. The center in Thai society no longer holds.
Now we come to the 2006 coup. I have yet to hear anyone successfully defend a coup upon a fairly elected democratic government. The reasons are always that Thaksin was corrupt. In point of fact, he was never corrupt. It is a question of "whose ox was gored". Thaksin is a successful businessman of mixed Chinese-Thai background, who built a communications company to be a powerhouse that he then sold to a Singapore consortium. He is part Chinese, rich, and sold resources outside Thailand, all of which are ammunition for his opposition. They have repeatedly stated that he somehow stole funds from the government, but in fact he simply used Thai tax laws long in extent to retain much of the proceeds of the sale. He broke no laws nor did he take advantage of anything other businessmen had not already used.
Thaksin's government has never been criticized for its accomplishments. After years of dithering by other administrations, Thaksin pushed through the completion of Suvarnabhumi airport. He instituted government-private enterprise partnerships to help the poorer sections of Thailand, with results I have seen first-hand that Thailand is economically more free than the US. He engaged militant Islam in the south with a policy of 'iron fist in velvet glove'. His government went to great lengths to successfully counteract embedded corruption in the police and the military. He cut drastically the pushers and dealers of 'ya ba'. This meant that he was on the verge of sacking elements in both the police and military who were at the top of the drug food chain. That's the reason elements of the military staged the 2006 coup. And his successful anti-Muslim policies are the reason why it was backed by Prem.
The 'red shirts' now ask that the current parliament be peacefully dissolved and new elections for a PM take place, as was falsely promised by Aphisit more than a year ago. They do not insist that Thaksin be made PM again, but only that his supporters' party have full access to the government.
This is serious business for the US in Southeast Asia. A once-solid ally for the west is now in danger. Regardless of the cherry-picked interviewees in Bangkok, the average traditionalist, conservative Buddhist Thai citizen is greatly alarmed with conditions brought on by the current government. Thaksin was solidly pro-western, anti-Muslim, and anti-Keynesian (they paid off IMF loans and vowed never to get involved again, in stark contrast with the current Aphisit government). The Obama administration is a supporter of the Aphisit government that is simply a proxy for Prem and the Muslims (BTW, note that Aphisit's wife is also Muslim). This situation needs to be reported honestly somewhere in the western media, but so far it has not been.
If you really want to learn about the true situation, ask yourselves the following questions:
Ask why a coup was forced upon a fairly elected democratic government. Ask why paid yellow-shirts then staged a second coup including a forcible takeover of the airport. Ask why Thaksin's supporters both then and now were so fair-minded that they did not fight back against these injustices and instead allowed a now obviously corrupt opposition to take power. Ask why the current administration believed it was ok for its thugs to stage crippling protests, but not for Thaksin's honest grass-roots supporters. Ask why corruption is now back in full, with business-as-usual in the police. Ask why the propaganda tactic of projection is repeatedly used against the red-shirts. Ask why so many Thais from all levels of society still support the red-shirts. Ask which side has had its supporters summarily fired upon and left dying in the streets? Don't listen to the progressive media and their useful idiots, whose only narrative is the same tired old line about "greedy Thaksin"... take the time to do a solid investigation of your own, and then make up your mind.
Douglas Hardie| 5.29.10 @ 5:39AM
An excellent analysis. I would only add that the Thai Bahts strength against European, American and other currencies is because of Thaksin's policies and sound economic management, which are now at risk from the existing unelected regime. An election, with all sides guaranteeing acceptance of the results, is the only way forward.
doyle| 5.31.10 @ 1:59AM
Absolute paranoid conspiracy theory nonsense, Prem is not a Muslim, nor has this conflict got anything to do with Muslims
banphai | 5.31.10 @ 3:22AM
I completely endorse what Doyle says. The analysis is ridiculous. I live in Thailand and keep myself very well-informed about political issues. I have never heard any suggestion that Prem Tinsulanonda or Abhisit's wife are muslims. What is the evidence that they are? Stevens might have a better chance of convincing us they are Klingons from the planet Qo'noS.
DMAC| 6.1.10 @ 7:09AM
That's what they said about Obama as well. Then his training in Madras' and other Muslim institutions comes out on talk radio and ignored by state run media.
Laurence Wachs| 5.28.10 @ 4:34PM
To my reading you are giving the information that is inconvenient for those who want to resort to slogans or think in terms of reality. What is real, if it would be otherwise unacceptable, is to be hidden, then when the negative plan works out, even the best-intentioned people pay the price.
I always think of the people who pay the price .
I wish the people of Thailand well. I have been in a number of countries and I find the normal person to have legitimate, similar concerns, almost to a person. But big players and religious players of poor motivation think of themselves. We need enlightened thinking for the greater good to prevail. We need to somehow make the common sense and humanistic result to be fulfilled. People need to act in such a way in daily life to earn the better outcome, to make the change in their own life to bring peace.
I pray in my own way (as an SGI Buddhist) for the best result, understanding full well that the everyday people are the treasure. NamMyohoRengeKyo
Angleton| 5.28.10 @ 5:08PM
Look for the Shanghai Cooperation Org to exploit this to the hilt. As stated earlier this decade by the Anti Western fiend, Gen. Leonid Ivashov "there is a rather powerful development in Southeast Asia." Not only would I say that the SCO will exploit the emerging fragmentation of Thailand, I would also say they are actually helping to instigate it. Yellow are compromised by their Pander Hugger disposition and Red are compromised by their Pathet Lao - GRU - SVR alignment. A classic scissor strategy with both blades operated by an SCO key player.
The Japanese well recognized that beyond (or maybe, viewed differently, part of) their early 1940s attempted "co prosperity sphere" was an eventual leap frog into resource rich Australia. Deja Vu all over again.
Angleton| 5.28.10 @ 5:16PM
RE: Charlie Stevens - thank you very much for the excellent point re: Muslims as part of the "Yellow" group - I must admit I had not yet read your response when I wrote mine and I realized I forgot to mention this important nuance. At the time of the initial "Yellow" uprising under the leadership of Lim(tongkul), a sort of Thai version of Code Pink who were giving aid and comfort not only to the Patanni but to Islamists in general, formed a key element of his group. That group strongly objected to Thaksin's involvement of Thailand in the WoT and suffered greatly from BDS. What a strange web has been woven by both Yellow and Red, both stink.
Charles Stevens| 5.28.10 @ 5:42PM
Re: Angleton...
You're welcome, but I'm not sure how you came to the conclusion that "both stink". In addition to answering the essay's query as to why the Obama administration does nothing about the current crisis (because they support Muslims and business-as-usual strongman domination), I believe I clearly laid out why the Red Shirts have been maligned by propaganda coming out of both the Aphisit government and the progressive western Old Left Media. To my mind, this puts the Red Shirts on the side of the angels. What is undeniably true is that the intricacies of Thai power politics is complicated and hard to follow. However, what is not difficult is to get outside of Bangkok and talk to the man-in-the-street, who is rightfully concerned about such developments as (1) an exodus of Thai Buddhists from the south, because the current government is doing nothing to protect them from savage Muslim violence, (2) The spate of new mosques all over major cities, in direct contrast to the actual percentage representation of the Muslim population. (3) Going into debt internationally by the current government, thus setting up a repeat of the '90's with such results as a still-uncompleted 30-story building in the middle of Khon Kaen from the last century. (4) Allowance of Sharia-based banking by the primary Islamic bank in Thailand, and rapid extension of branches by same, (5) Reports that the Aphisit government used disguised soldiers from Myanmar as the goons who actually opened fire on the Red Shirts, since Thai soldiers would never do that to their own people, and (6) Reports from outlying towns in Issan province that soldiers are now bivouaced nearby, for no apparent reason other than intimidation. This is NOT the actions of an honest government. The Red Shirts have always attempted to stage peaceful protests, however prolonged, against this government in order to regain their society. That the Yellows have repeatedly violated any accomodation, and have set up violent situations in which people are now getting killed and buildings burned, is solely a reflection of a corrupt government that any Conservative here in the US should oppose. Please advise us as to why you seem to be dithering about some mythical moral equivalence, because in my experience that is a typical progressive metanarrative.
Charles Stevens| 5.28.10 @ 6:10PM
Re: Angleton...
I've been re-reading your posts, and they don't appear to make much sense. You accuse the Red Shirts of being in bed with the Pathet Lao, but provide no proof other than your assertion. Please note that the government of Laos is no longer militantly or even blatantly communist, and slowly but surely is attracting Western investment. The Pathet Lao are long gone, as is any animosity towards Western visitors and the US in particular. I've gone to Laos many times on day trips and overnight trips, and spoken to friends of my wife who have been posted to Vientiane for business by Thai companies. Just because northeast Thailand has historical ties to Laos does not mean there is a resurgence of some old communists... please move ahead with your history. As to the rest of your references, I admit I am ignorant of many of them... Please elaborate, at least on your acronyms. Then please tie it together as to who you believe is actually in control. Are you saying that ultimately the Japanese are behind this? Not to put too fine an edge on it, but that is really a weird and wacky assertion. But maybe I'm wrong... please educate me.
Angleton| 5.28.10 @ 8:33PM
I am certainly no Progressive. Just wanted to clear the air on that.
My allusion to the Japanese during WW2 was as a past example. The current example, who mimic Imperial Bushidoist Japan, is the Shanghai Cooperation Org. They are the party who ultimately benefit from a weakened (and ultimately, conquered) Thailand.
And strange as it may seem, they support both the Red and the Yellow. Again, it's a scissors strategy. It's meant to create a civil war. And into the wreckage will stride the North (Eur)Asian Barbarians.
norris hall| 5.29.10 @ 10:03AM
The situation in Thailand should give pause to anyone who thinks the poor can be ignored. For years the poor in Thailand have been maginalized and forgotten in Thailand.
When Thaksin became prime minister he instituted many programs to help the poor, including universal heath care, loans and grants to farmers, better access to education.
As a result he was widely popular among Thailand's poor rural and urban citizens.
That almost assured him of re election since the poor in Thailand outnumber the rich and middle class.
His popularity among Thailand's poor made other powers in Thailand: the military, the royal elites, and the business community, nervous and he was overthrown in a coup.
After the coup another democratic election voted in a Thaksin friendly government. The military appointed court found a loophole that allowed them to disqualify the new government. The government was reshuffled and again one of Thaksin's relatives became prime minister. This time the Bangkok elite class organized a takeover of the main airports in Thailand , disrupting tourism. Their street protests forced the government to resign and a more friendly government was formed under the new prime minister Abisit.
Angry that their choice for prime minister was thrown out in a coup and their subsequently elected government was disqualified by the courts, the poor began organizing counter demonstrations .
They were successful in disrupting the ASEAN conference held in Hua Hin and in March stormed into Bangkok by the tens of thousands, literally shutting the city down.
Now that the military has put down the protest, it remains seem where the poor will go from here. But they obviously are very bitter and have finally seen that even without heavy weapons they are finally a force to be reckoned with. It is very possible that they could force the country into a civil war...the rich against the poor...or seek a separate "country" where they can rule themselves.
Either way Thailand will be the big loser in all of this.
A good lesson for anyone who thinks that the poor are powerless and ignorant and can be ignored
Scribelus| 5.29.10 @ 6:11PM
Yet more evidence that President Obama is an incompetent ninny!
David Long| 5.30.10 @ 12:48AM
Charles Stevens condemns 'wierd and wacky assertions.' How then to regard his assertion that Prem 'Tinsulandona' (er, note to Charles, you who 'really know' what's going, the Romanisation is 'Tinsulanonda') is a Muslim, a fifth columnist for radical Islam in Thailand as he seems to imply? That might come as something of a surprise to Prem, not least the Buddhist King he serves as a Privy Councillor and, indeed, 65 million Thais. Prem is famously a committed Buddhist. Kinda puts the rest of Stevens' twaddle into perspective, no? Then again, who are we to challenge Stevens' self-asserted primacy on all matters Thai?
Melvin| 5.30.10 @ 9:09AM
The Red Shirts need a better PR campaign than the sitting government. Fighting for freedom doesn't come easy or cheap. Americans will soon in the near future find that fact out.
Americans will be forced to either chose live under freedom, with the rule of law, or chose live with tyranny, under the rule men. There will be no alternative.
Will Americans take to the streets as did the Red Shirts.....? This remains to be seen, it depends how much they love freedom.
Sanuk| 5.31.10 @ 3:04AM
The US support of the military/monarchy in Thailand is highly likely (similarly to US support in Vietnam and Laos) to lead to a increasingly fractured Thai society which China will support through the highly influential Chinese-Thai. The end result - another failed state in South East Asia.
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