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Political Hay
A Tale of Two Presidents
A plague on at least one of their houses.
The Plague, by Albert Camus. Remember that book? It is a gritty rendition of the last major outbreak of bubonic plague, which took place in Algeria in the early 1950s. I read it as a teenager and remember no details, only the mood, heavy but hurtling forward, like a boulder in an avalanche. I particularly recall learning here the word “recrudescence.” Now, an insight I once experienced concerning that book helps me to understand the turnabout in Democrat fortunes.
The facts themselves are startling. The party enjoys dominant leads in both the House of Representatives and the Senate of the United States. The Presidency went Democrat as well, canceling most of the checks and wiping out most of the balances. The powers that had become went ahead and pushed through a vague bill doing something vague to the health-care system which in some vague way will insure everyone in the country, vaguely cutting costs and vaguely helping the deficit long-term. The powerful head of the Congressional Appropriations Committee, long-time Wisconsin Representative David Obey swung the gavel to announce passage. He used the same gavel that had banged Medicare into existence. He capped that triumphant moment a month later by announcing he would not run for reelection. Huh?
More examples of such events occur each day. Last week a 14-term Democrat Congressman from West Virginia lost a primary to an opponent who stressed his opposition to the health-care bill. Powerful Senators Dodd and Dorgan are not risking their egos in bruising contests and Bayh has taken a bye on his run as well. The Republicans are ahead 7 points in the general polling preference for which party should control Congress.
It is easy for conservatives to say they told you so, so they do, because they did. But in truth the answer is not as simple as they think: the public opposed the bill, the politicians passed the bill, the public will make them pay. In real political terms, things do not generally work out that way.
Bill Clinton, who knows a thing or two about politics, actually was right when he told the Democrats the health-care bill should help them. The logic goes like this. 1) Midterm elections have low turnout. 2) The base of the party in power is generally disappointed by the gap between the promise of victory and the reality of governance. 3) The base of the party out of power is hungry, and angry. 4) Consequently, the out-of-power party gets higher turnout and wins back seats. 5) The only solution is to excite the base of the party in power by giving them a long-sought legislative achievement. 6) With two energized bases squaring off, and independents sleeping through the midterms, the elections can be fought to a draw and the party in power buys a solid year-and-a-half of total domination until the next Presidential election heats up.
So where has the Clinton formula gone wrong? It is not that the doctrinaire Democrat base is insufficiently jubilant over the health-care victory. It is because of the independents. The independents have suddenly arisen like the zombies in a horror movie and are throwing their votes to Republicans in unprecedented quantities. You see 70 to 30 leads for Republicans among independents in states like Massachusetts, an eventuality no political consultant could possibly have anticipated.
I think the answer is that the press overplayed its hand. It has thoroughly abdicated its role in questioning government when Democrats are in office. The same press crew that challenged Bush on the economy when there was 4.6% unemployment now reports as wonderful the fact that unemployment when up from 9.7 to 9.9 in April. This proves more people are optimistic enough about the future to re-enter the job market! Imagine if we hit 11 or 12, we will have to send a ticker-tape parade down Wall Street.
This tells the independent voter there is no longer a contest between Democrat and Republican. There is a contest between charismatic leaders surrounded by naïve sycophants versus practical leaders surrounded by skeptical interrogators. The independent has to vote Republican not because he buys the ideology but merely because he thinks it healthy to have a guy who is challenged rather than venerated.
This is like the realization I had with The Plague. After I had been assigned it in a college literature course I had a friend who had to read it for medical school. It suddenly hit me: we are reading two separate books. I am reading a work of literature and he is reading a work of medicine. We have gotten to that point with the Presidency. It is no longer one job. There are two distinct jobs of Democrat President and Republican President. One walks into the press room to meet the lemmings while the other must face the jackals.
About the Author
Jay D. Homnick, commentator and humorist, is a frequent contributor to The American Spectator. He also writes for Human Events. Here he speaks at the Rally for Religious Freedom in Miami on June 8, 2012.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (39) | Leave a comment
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Doug| 5.21.10 @ 6:17AM
Amen, Mr Homnick, amen. I'm not a big fan of Republicans, but I know that they are not going to get away with anything because the press hates them with a white hot passion. They are the party of the "rich."
Democrats, however, are always assumed by the media to be honest, efficient and compassionate, always looking out for the "little guy."
I'd like to see cold hard Libertarians in charge, but that's not going to happen in my lifetime, so I put on the nose plugs and vote Republican.
Randy Patterson | 5.21.10 @ 7:52AM
Your "Tale of Two Presidents" piece was very interesting. While I'm not sure that I yet agree with your assessment of the current mindset of the Independent voter base (of which I consider myself), you've given me plenty to think about and chew on.
A thought for you: Your last paragraph offers the thought of there being two presidential jobs. Agreed. However, you also seem to be calling out two press pools. If so, I would agree with that analysis, as well.
Again, great piece. You've given me some good stuff to chew on.
michi| 5.21.10 @ 8:34AM
As you can see by the two previous comments, it is all 50-50. #2 still does not get it! God, is this scary!
Louis Jenkins| 5.21.10 @ 8:42AM
The Conservatives are gaining momentum. Just when the Pretender n Chief seems to slow down, he injects another fly in the ointment and stirs up the Conservatives even more. He's going for broke. He knows he's got until Nov. 2 and after that he's a really bad lame duck.
Ned| 5.21.10 @ 9:07AM
Your right, America hates someone who is consistently shown favoritism. They also hate a person who is smug. This guy has both of the above in spades.
Ken (Old Texican)| 5.21.10 @ 9:25AM
A few months back...
I commended a novel to you folks. "The Last Centurion" by a Mr. Ringo.
It is two things. A rip-roaring adventure story layed on the background where the "world economic turbine" explodes completely.
Buy it from amazon.com today...please. It may just save your life.
Mike| 5.21.10 @ 8:02PM
May I recommend "Atlas Shrugged," first published in 1957 and very appropriate for today's situation!
Humphrey Dumfries| 5.21.10 @ 9:53AM
recrudescence: a new outbreak after a period of abatement or inactivity
Tim*| 5.21.10 @ 10:50AM
We are in a media war.
Bankrupt The Mainstream Media.
The Tea Party Rebellion Escalates .
Remember In November .
Scribelus| 5.21.10 @ 11:51AM
With all respect to Mr Homnick: It's not "The Press", it's the Ministry of Propaganda, in service to the worst President ever - the head carbuncle of a maladministration.
blackwatch| 5.23.10 @ 11:26PM
Yes and Soros is the next Goebbels.
how ironic.
james wilson| 5.21.10 @ 12:17PM
Given only that choice, I will choose the jackals.
Flattery is fiercer than hatred, for hatred corrects the faults flattery had disguised--
Baltasar Gracian
gearjammer| 5.21.10 @ 3:13PM
A recent posting of the top 20 zip codes by wealth showed 19 of the 20 gave overwhelmingly to the democrats. Why can't the republicans get this stuff out ? It is sobering stuff. I showed it to a lefty pal of mine and it left him speechless. We have the potential to also do class warfare. Look at the Hollywood and media types who are making mega bucks for producing crap. The trial lawyers and the jackpots they pull in do serious damage to our nation. These people are overpaid destructive forces in our society. They fund treasonous NGSOS and causes. How about a big fat media and entertainment tax on those earning over 250k ? Like 70 per cent and funneling it into social security ? How about a maximum wage ? You know for overpaid clowns who dominate the airwaves and own the entertainment industry. How about just pick and choose cable you only pay for what you want. This would all give the democrats a stroke. But, Republicans and conservatives would never hear of it - in their fairy tale world nobody is overpaid. it will take a third party all said and done.
txn4ever| 5.21.10 @ 3:46PM
"...in their fairy tale world nobody is overpaid."
So, at level should your pay max ou? And, who should decide these things? You? Me? Uncle Sam? The bum begging on the corner?
Claudia Monteverdi| 5.21.10 @ 5:03PM
Jay,
You've summed it up nicely, nicely.
I am , for the nonce, visiting the Shanghai Expo (Y'all come..fantastic--don't Miss the Israeli "EINSTEIN" pavillion and (gasp) the Talian "Marco Polo" extravaganza)...with the local smiling commisars doing their thing, I don't dare point out that there is a "chink" in our armour...kindly pass the eggrolls Comrade.
Now listen up please to the guy whos is a self styled "hard nosed" or "hard core" (I forget which) LIBERTARIAN....
IT'S TIME TO SEE WHETHER THE JACKALS ARE just that!
A torpedo named Dr. Rand Paul has just struck us midships, below the water line. He is not a buffoon, more like a soft spoken Eichmann type..Slam him hard folks, or we all will go down with him whilst crows the Harpies...
Jay, your extraordinary intellect is needed at this juncture as I detect a whiff of "Let's Defend The Bastard" sentiment oozing out of most conservative oracals (Not Krauthammer, always there for us) ----His nasty little litany regarding Cicil Rights; re-stated on National TV several times, garbled and squalid but clear as the Liberty Bell once was, simply stated: "Yeah, I can live with the Public Provisions.... I guess-(whew, there is surely one I would junk)-but Private Enterprise need not serve a stack of Aunt Jemimas to Aunt Jemima--" (sort of quote that is).
Some loud conservative voices had best jump on him and fast.The Dems finally have a legit issue with which to destroy "The Party of Jim Crow"..many of us will silently condone the attack.
Great Article,
Claudia Monteverdi
Buenos Aires, Argentina, thanks to Obama, now only the second worst government in the Western World..
Tim*| 5.21.10 @ 5:34PM
Asked & Answered .
Rand Paul :
“I believe we should work to end all racism in American society and staunchly defend the inherent rights of every person. I have clearly stated in prior interviews that I abhor racial discrimination and would have worked to end segregation. Even though this matter was settled when I was 2, and no serious people are seeking to revisit it except to score cheap political points, I unequivocally state that I will not support any efforts to repeal the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
“Let me be clear: I support the Civil Rights Act because I overwhelmingly agree with the intent of the legislation, which was to stop discrimination in the public sphere and halt the abhorrent practice of segregation and Jim Crow laws.
“As I have said in previous statements, sections of the Civil Rights Act were debated on Constitutional grounds when the legislation was passed. Those issues have been settled by federal courts in the intervening years ".
Tim*| 5.21.10 @ 5:38PM
Apparently , some fringe neoconservative foreign agendist types are also upset with Rand Paul and The Tea Party.
The Tea Party Supports Rand Paul .
The Tea Party Rebellion Escalates
Remember In November .
Roy| 5.21.10 @ 8:43PM
"Fringe", my left ear.
My personal position is, isolationism is not a sentiment I would ever want in control - but it's not one I mind having a seat at the table. One isolationist in Congress won't hurt us - specially not if he's a pro-life libertarian.
If we have to fight a difficult war with him in the Senate, he'll stand with Code Pink, but nobody will be able to say "Even SUPPORTERS are turning on the war!" on that basis, seeing as how everybody already knows he is an isolationist, and that's the only way people like that do damage.
Of course the above is all written assuming he's a clone of his father since I don't know in what ways he differs.
Warrior | 5.21.10 @ 9:05PM
I would rather use isolationist philosophies that continue to wage limited wars. War cannot be limited, it only serves to annihilate your enemies. Until this country grows a pair and fights a war to win, there is no sense in putting our young troops through the meat grinders only to treat them as criminals when they make the smallest of mistakes.
Tim*| 5.21.10 @ 8:50PM
Do Your Homework .
Rand Paul :
" I believe that the primary Constitutional function of the federal government is national defense, bar none.
I believe our greatest national security threat is our lack of security at the border. On 9/11, 16 of 19 hijackers were here on ‘legal’ student Visas but were not in school or in the states they were supposed to be in.
Ten years later we are still not policing who we grant Visas to. We gave a Visa to a Nigerian who had made two trips to Yemen, bought a one way ticket with cash and no baggage and his dad tipped off the US Embassy that he had been radicalized.
I propose a moratorium on Visas from about ten rogue nations or anybody that has traveled to those nations. I would keep this in place until our government proves they can manage intelligently our Visa process.
I believe we try the terrorists captured on the battlefield in military tribunals at GITMO. I do not believe in trying them in civilian court.
I believe that when we must fight, we declare war as the Constitution mandates and we fight to win. That we fight only under US Commander and not the UN.
I believe that defending this country is the primary and most important Constitutional function of our federal government."
Claudia Monteverdi| 5.21.10 @ 11:00PM
Tim my lad,
That was an awful powerful passel of "I believes" you used as a dessert following your min course "frinfe" comment..sooooh, if we are I believing it full throttle tis season I'll be most delighted to tell you what I believe.
Tim, I believe you are a ringer for the dems taking time out from waiting for lefty to attempt to hang us with this stick of dynamite and all the negative imp-lications implied therein...Tim, I suggest you race toa Sarah Palin Rally and start a fighyt with a non caucasian supporter---that's always good for a grown,
If that doesn't work, I respectfully suggest that you shove that fringe right into your Aspirations of Agit-Prop, 2,010.
As Always,
Your Claudia
Baldassare| 5.22.10 @ 11:27AM
You were always a worthless Worldclass Bullcrapper,Sonny Boy.
Now, go to room before I surgically remove your flappin' tongue, Boy !
Tim*| 5.22.10 @ 1:29PM
" Claudio " Monteverdi was a man .
Apparently , you're wearin' a dress & wantin' to be his sister.
Chalkdust| 5.23.10 @ 12:56AM
Claudia:
Doth thy protest to much? It was you gentle lady who brought up the dark spector (in your mind) of Rand Paul. Maybe it's you who is the paid agent of George Sorras. For my part, I like the idea of a polititian who's main goal is to hobble the government juggernalt. We would be lucky to have a few more just like him.
audax| 5.22.10 @ 4:57AM
Tim, Cludia Green Mountains used the right word for Paul Rand: A Torpedo! She justed mis-used it. Paul Rand will be the Torpedo that sinks the Black Ship Obama (thank God) or how does Marc Jeric call it the Black Ship Abu Hussein al-Nairobi.
David Dean| 5.21.10 @ 8:57PM
The real problem is that very few, if any, elected politicians have any ideology beyond self interest. The genius of the constituti0n and of limited government, is, that to the vast majority of us, it is not supposed to matter who wins elections.
Since the constitution limits the power of politicians to harm us, who cares?
Politicians can take public money for their own purposes, but, not too much. They can hire their imbicele relatives, and steal a bit (many millions) , but they are not supposed to have the power to do us much harm.
Dedicated Marxists ideologues now hold unlimited power in the Executive, Legislative, amd the Judicial branches of government. They hold the Acadamy, the Bureucracy and the media.
The opposition, (not counting those of us are actually trying to make a living and care for our families) consists entirely of conscienceless opportunists who can be easily bought.
The result will either be the eternal enslavement of the American people , or civil war.
I wish this were not so.
Claudia Monteverdi| 5.21.10 @ 11:58PM
*note..a friend has indicated to me that my spelling is one microwave higher than "utterly intolerable". I have been urged to smooth it up a bit...here goes:
Tim my Lad,
That was an awful powerful passel of "I believes" you used as a soothing dessert following your heavy duty main course "FRINGE" comment..sooooh, if we are "I believing it" full throttle this season I'll be most delighted to tell you what I believe.
Tim, I believe you are a ringer for the dems, taking time out from waiting for lefty to attempt to hang us with this stick of dynamite and all the negative implications implied therein...
Tim, I suggest you race to a Sarah Palin Rally and start a fight with a non caucasian supporter with an AP guy at your side---that's always good for a grown, If that doesn't work, I respectfully suggest that you shove that fringe right into your Aspirations of Agit-Prop, 2,010.
As Always and Ever,
Your Claudia
Marc Jeric| 5.22.10 @ 12:24AM
Notwithstanding a few Republican victories here and there - it is all too little and too late. The communist avalanche is unstopable huge nationalizations of American companies is irreversible. Abu Hussein al-Nairobi promissed us "a funtamental transformation" which he is proceeding to effect apace. Cap & trade power grab coming soon will do it for ever. We will have become United Soviet States of America. Obama system of local soviets is strong, in place, well financed, and ready for action: intimidation, voter fraud, demostrations, physical violence. Government employees unions, including teachers, will vote 100% for more of the same. With 47% of people not paying any taxes and most of them on the dole, plus the coming amnesty of 15 million illegal aliens our commies will have majorities for ever. This refugee from a communist hell reads the same crap in the MSM here as before there - Pravda, Borba, Rude Pravo, etc.
audax| 5.22.10 @ 4:52AM
Abu Hussein al-Nairobi ? Marc that is TOO good! May I use it in future? Understand what you are saying! The commies spent their time here ruining the future of Czechs and Slovaks. Just cross the border into Austria and you can see how phhysically. Deal with the people here and you can see how mentally and spirititually.
A Texan in Bratislava.
Yosemeti Sam| 5.22.10 @ 12:33PM
Remember this my fellow Americans - the to November long fuse has been lit for political come-uppance to the Democrat party regime.
They - the enemies of our Constitution for not being a Socialist document - will huff and puff and try all means to blow out that fuse till they're purple in the face.
What them Leftoids fail to comprehend is the nature of that fuse - its' all-weather guaranteed!
JimP| 5.22.10 @ 8:45PM
The town hall protests, tea parties, Rep victories in VA, NJ and MA and the Dems STILL passed a massively unpopular healthcare bill. No offense to Mr. Homnick, but it was a hugely stupid political move by the Dems to pass this bill in the face of the opposition to it. It should have been obvious. It proved Bill Clinton and others lost sight of reality and were rationalizing passing a pet project. Independents are now alert to the fact that the Dem party is the party of insane policies and there's nowhere else to go right now but to the GOP. Hopefully the Indies will 'join' forces with the conservatives and we can change the GOP into a conservative/libertarian party and let the Dems and Rockefeller Republicans (aka: RINOs) team up to be the statist alternative.
Thorvald| 5.23.10 @ 9:56AM
This analysis rings true to me.
If we're really lucky, the Lame Stream Media will take a big hit along with the Democratic Socialist Workers' Party in the fall and subsequently.
blackwatch| 5.23.10 @ 11:42PM
yes don't buy newspapers and don't watch MSNBC, CNN, or have anything to do with GE or Time Warner if you can.
Squeese them. And gird your loins for the comming battle with the Public Employee labor unions.
Perhaps when we re-take congress we should cap the wages of every public employee union worker in America at no more than 2x the minimum wage per hour with NO overtime ever. And they can't retire short of the age 65 or before 40 years service. NO more free lunch Public Employee slugs! Your time is up!
My Girl Friday | 5.23.10 @ 3:47PM
Rand Paul's win was predicted, Scott Brown's sell out to the Democrats massive financial bill giving Obama another victory was also predictable. Another crisis, another bill, that had to be passed without delay, another senator that needed to be payed off. Each time the Democrats get their backs to the wall..... the Republicans manage to bail them out.