Debbie Lee came all the way from Arizona to campaign for Tim
Burns. She was “deployed” to western Pennsylvania on behalf of
Moving America Forward, a pro-military organization “committed to
supporting America’s efforts to defeat terrorism,” and she
brought with her a $5,000 check for the Burns campaign from the
group’s political action committee.
Lee is a “Gold Star Mother” whose son, a Navy SEAL, was
killed in a 2006 firefight in Iraq. She praised Burns as “a
candidate who understands and will uphold the Constitution and
who recognizes the sacrifices our troops make.”
In the battle for Pennsylvania’s 12th District, Lee is one
member of a veritable of army of volunteers fighting to elect a
Republican to the seat held for more than three decades by the
late Democrat John Murtha. For weeks, volunteers have stuffed
envelopes, manned phone banks and walked precincts, and today
they’ll make the final push to get their voters to the polls in a
special election that many observers are calling a crucial test
of whether the GOP can win back the House of Representatives in
November.
On the eve of this key election, only one man was willing
to predict the final result. “I can assure you, we’re going to
have a victory tomorrow,” Burns said in an interview on Sean
Hannity’s Fox News program Monday night.
There have been only
four public polls in the campaign, three of which showed
narrow leads for the Republican candidate. The final poll
showed Burns ahead by only a single percentage point, meaning
that no GOP votes can be taken for granted. While there are
encouraging signs for Republicans — 63 percent of 12th District
voters have a negative opinion of Nancy Pelosi and 55 percent
disapprove of President Obama — a victory for Burns would still
be a major upset, given that registered Democrats outnumber
Republicans 2-to-1 in the district.
Beyond strictly local disadvantages for the GOP, there’s
also the woe-struck record of the National Republican Campaign
Committee, which in the past two years lost 10 consecutive House
special elections. That streak technically ended last week in
Georgia’s 9th District, although a runoff will be required to
determine which of two GOP candidates will fill the seat vacated
by the resignation of Republican Rep. Nathan Deal. Electing a
Republican in Murtha’s old district is a far more formidable task
and Monday it seemed as if the NRCC was being taunted by its
counterpart, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. The
DCCC put out a press release emphasizing PA-12 as a “must-win”
for the GOP.
The Democratic press release quoted such sources as veteran
election analyst Charlie Cook — “Republicans have no excuse to
lose this race” — and the Washington Post’s Chris
Cillizza, who said Republicans “have to prove they can emerge
victorious in seats like this one…to make a reasonable case that
the majority is in play this fall.” Perhaps the DCCC was playing
the expectations game to deflect attention from the upcoming
special election in Hawaii, where the presence of two Democrats
on the ballot all but guarantees a win for Republican Charles
Djou. However, that press release may also have been a signal of
Democratic confidence that they can win a close contest on what
is, after all, their home turf.
Such confidence could scarcely be inspired by the
Democratic candidate, former Murtha staffer Mark Critz, a bland
bureaucrat who has tried to portray himself as a moderate. In
March, when the Democrats’ health-care bill was pending in
Congress, Critz refused to say whether he was for or against it.
Once the bill passed, Critz said he opposed it, but wouldn’t vote
to repeal it. That kind of have-it-both-ways centrism may explain
a general lack of enthusiasm among Democratic voters in the 12th
District — the most recent poll showing Burns with a 22-point
advantage among voters who described themselves as “excited”
about the election.
Excitement among Republican voters is obviously good news
for Burns, but it may not be enough to overcome heavier turnout
among Democrats drawn to Tuesday’s Senate primary showdown
between party-switching Sen. Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak.
How many registered Democrats in PA-12 will cast their votes for
either of those Senate candidates and then vote for the GOP
candidate in the House special election? The answer to that
question could be critical for Burns’ chances of victory, and
there’s another question that is perhaps even more troubling:
What about Bill Russell?
A retired Marine officer, Russell moved to Pennsylvania
with the specific purpose of challenging Murtha in the 2008
election after the Democrat had accused Marines in Iraq of
killing civilians in cold blood. Russell lost by 15 points, but
was aiming for a rematch this year until Murtha’s death in
February ended that possibility. When Republicans gathered in
March to choose their candidate for the special election, they
picked Burns, a successful businessman who had entered the GOP
primary last year after becoming active in the Tea Party
movement. Yet Russell hasn’t ended his campaign for the
Republican primary nomination, which will be listed separately on
the Tuesday ballot. More to the point, Russell has refused to
endorse Burns in the special election and Russell’s campaign
staffers have called Burns an “opportunist.”
The Burns campaign has sought to avoid official comment on
the potential problems posed by Russell’s continued candidacy.
Some Republicans in the district, however, privately worry that
if Russell’s embittered supporters refuse to vote for Burns in
the special election, the loss of a few hundred GOP votes might
provide the winning margin for Critz. And while Burns is almost
certain to win the Republican primary nomination, he would face
an even greater challenge if November brings a rematch with an
incumbent Critz.
Such calculations become moot if Burns beats Critz today,
and in the final days leading up to the election, the Burns
campaign has repeated the slogan “Vote Twice for Tim on Tuesday”
to remind Republicans to pick him in both the special election
and the primary. And legions of conservative activists from
around the country have descended on the 12th District to help
spread that message.
“Our volunteers are out in force, in the rain, knocking on
doors for Tim,” Burns outreach coordinator Angela Lash said
Monday afternoon.
It is that army of volunteers whose tireless efforts will
determine whether Republicans celebrate a victory in Pennsylvania
tonight.
