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Loose Canons
Remember the Cheonan
For starters, Six Party Talks should have sunk with the South Korean warship.
On March 26, the South Korean corvette Cheonan — a 1,200-ton warship with a crew of 104 — exploded and sank off the South Korean island of Baengnyeong in the Yellow Sea near the western end of the 1953 North-South truce line. Forty-six of the crew were killed.
When the ship sank — apparently a result of a North Korean torpedo attack — it should have taken with it President Obama’s efforts to revive the “Six Party Talks,” the long-running effort to negotiate North Korea’s cessation of its nuclear program. North Korea is a principal proliferator of advanced missiles and nuclear technology, selling to any customer with hard cash.
About two weeks after the ship sank, President Obama was apparently willing to overlook the incident. On April 13, he predicted that North Korea’s choice of “isolation” from the international community would result in sufficient pressure to drive it back to the bargaining table. Obama predicted, “…we’ll see a return to the six-party talks and … we will see a change in behavior.” That change is not in evidence.
The ship sank in roughly the same area in which North and South Korean ships exchanged fire in November 2009, an incident in which two North Koreans were killed. Was the Cheonan attacked by a North Korean ship — a submarine or even, as one press report said, man-guided torpedoes in a suicide attack — or was it destroyed in an accident?
First reports speculated that the ship hit an unrecovered mine left over from the Korean War. Since the ship’s wreckage was recovered, examination of the damage has led to the conclusion that the explosion occurred outside the hull. And as one news report said Friday, pieces of aluminum which are not from the ship were found in or near the wreckage. Virtually all torpedoes are made with aluminum parts to reduce weight and resist oxidation.
North Korea has denied responsibility, but South Korea has determined that the ship was attacked, probably by a North Korean submarine. The South Korean Yonhap news agency reported Saturday that South Korean Defense Minister Kim Tae-young, in remarks pre-recorded for Sunday broadcast, blamed North Korea and demanded punitive action. The report quotes him as saying, “I believe a punitive action of any form should be taken against perpetrators who killed our soldiers. Those responsible for the deaths of the soldiers should pay the price.”
A later Yonhap report, apparently seeking to tone down the rhetoric, quoted an unnamed government official saying that the aluminum debris might have come from the ship, which is quite possible. Combatant ships also have many aluminum parts. (The British destroyer Sheffield was sunk in the 1982 Falklands War with Argentina after Exocet missiles hit, setting its aluminum superstructure afire.)
If the North Koreans are responsible for the sinking of the Cheonan, it is the bloodiest incident since the 1953 truce. But the cause of the sinking may never be proven. There’s no team from “CSI Seoul” to prove a North Korean torpedo sank the ship. So what can South Korea do?
In this case, not much.
Any military response — perhaps an air raid on a North Korean naval base — risks disproportionate responses from nuclear-armed North Korea. Kim Jong-il’s government is one of the most reckless and unpredictable in the world. It regularly provokes the U.S., South Korea and Japan to leverage concessions in the “Six Party Talks.” The attack on the Cheonan could not have been made without Kim’s personal approval.
Russia and China will bar further sanctions against the North Koreans in the UN, and the only other diplomatic route available to South Korea would be to boycott the Six Party Talks, which will put them at odds with Obama.
China is the key to North Korea, its client state. But China is also Obama’s banker: its willingness to buy U.S. debt is a key to sustaining his spending spree and government expansion.
It is South Korea, not its belligerent northern cousin, that is isolated. The sinking of the Cheonan will only delay further U.S. concessions to North Korea to buy its re-entry into the Six-Party Talks. It will not prevent them.
South Korea’s isolation, just like Israel’s in the face of the threat of nuclear-arming Iran, is a direct result of Obama’s foreign policy, his unwillingness to stand with our allies against existential threats.
As former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld is fond of saying, weakness is provocative. The kakistocracies that govern North Korea and Iran agree, and act.
About the Author
Jed Babbin served as a Deputy Undersecretary of Defense under George H.W. Bush. He is the author of several bestselling books including Inside the Asylum and In the Words of Our Enemies. You can follow him on Twitter @jedbabbin.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (46) | Leave a comment
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Pingback| 5.6.10 @ 6:13AM
Twitter Trackbacks for The American Spectator : Remember the Cheonan [spectator.org] links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
davelnaf| 5.6.10 @ 8:31AM
If the situation with North Korea were not so tragic, and potentially far worse, it would be funny. Here, you have the most rogue of rogue states behaving as the surrogate pit bull for China and Russia in order to make life in the Koreas miserable and give the US an endless series of foreign policy migraines. Nice guys, the Chinese and the Russians.
And don’t expect the Bamster to become any more enlightened on foreign policy issues than he is currently; after all, he doesn’t think the integrity of our border is worth defending. Come to think of it neither did Bush, but even he would have given up on multi-party talks with North Korea after its attack on the South Korean ship.
We have more than enough scoundrels and too many fools running the world at the present time and similar situations have led to war.
Matt| 5.6.10 @ 9:54AM
The answer to this situation--a show of strength. Isolate and destroy a N. Korea warship out at sea, blocking naval transmissions. NK will recognize the retaliation, but will be unable to verify.
Humphrey Dumfries| 5.6.10 @ 10:26AM
Great to see Jed Babbin back in the mix at Spectator!!
Ned| 5.6.10 @ 10:36AM
The present administration is a guarantee of future war. Our enemies see these fools in charge and realize they have a once in a lifetime opportunity to fulfill their dreams of glory.
They, our enemies, will not pass this up. This is the change they have been waiting for.
SpiralArchitect| 5.6.10 @ 3:54PM
Spot on, again.
But, who to fear more? The ones stearing our nation down the tubes or the ones gunning for us?
Yosemeti Sam| 5.6.10 @ 11:34AM
How a turkey shit ( pardon the shorthand) Stalinist country can enjoy such - political circumspection - is a real load to bear.
Simply: furnish Japan, South Korea and Taiwan - nukes!
And address the issue poignantly to Nkoreas' patron, Communist China, succinctly - as the Duke once averred in the Big Jake flick: " And now you understand. Anything goes wrong, anything at all...your fault, my fault, nobody's fault...it won't matter...I'm gonna blow your head off. No matter what else happens, no matter who gets killed, I'm gonna blow your head off. "
That should add to Chinas' reflection of supporting that squirt in Nkorea.
Len| 5.6.10 @ 11:35AM
This is our problem why??
We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.
provide for the common defence
The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States; but all Duties, Imposts and Excises shall be uniform throughout the United States;
provide for the common Defence
To exercise exclusive Legislation in all Cases whatsoever, over such District (not exceeding ten Miles square) as may, by Cession of particular States, and the Acceptance of Congress, become the Seat of the Government of the United States, and to exercise like Authority over all Places purchased by the Consent of the Legislature of the State in which the Same shall be, for the Erection of Forts, Magazines, Arsenals, dock-Yards, and other needful Buildings
Now of course I will hear from all the supposed conservatives who will say the world is a different place than it was at the time of instituting the federal government under the instrument of the US constitution. The same "conservatives" who probably whine all the time about progressives and their living constitution, yet nevertheless will gladly ignore the restraints imposed upon the federal government to provide only for protecting the states belonging to the union, and not policing the world to "protect democracy" or whatever sophism employed to justify our imperialistic actions.
Does anyone remember how to in order to rescue the Filipinos from "Imperial" Spain we killed 200,000 of them and took over the country. What about WW 1 where Wilson involved us in a war, first by secretly aiding the British and then openly defying the US constitution and committing us to a cause of freedom (and a place at the table), not common defense and getting 400,000 Americans killed.
So called conservatives always talk about Cloward-Piven domestically, but neglect to realize all this warfare is the international version of C-P. We spend Billions and Billions of dollars conducting wars that have nothing to do with our common defense and leave our borders unprotected, our ports unmonitored and only serve to weaken us. So please tell me what North Korea or Japan or Iraq have to with protecting us here.
Bayou Babe| 5.6.10 @ 12:08PM
“So please tell me what North Korea or Japan or Iraq have to with protecting us here.”
In light of North Korea: Because the whisper is that North Korea - on its own or in league with either China, Russia, Venezuela, Cuba or with all four - is responsible for the disaster in the Gulf of Mexico. The Deepwater Horizon platform was built by Hyundai Heavy Industries, of Seoul, South Korea. Supposedly, there is a Russian intelligence report, dated April 30, 2010, that reveals how the attack was accomplished. If the report exists, is it the truth, a provocation or a red herring, via projecton? Unfortunately, we’ll never know.
Gr0w1er| 5.6.10 @ 1:01PM
Hmm, I could've sworn I heard Thomas E Dewey wailing from the grave!?!
Linda B.| 5.6.10 @ 4:19PM
Here are some questions for you. If a missile armed with a nuclear warhead is fired from a North Korean submarine and we detect it, how much time do you think we have until it passes through the constitutional 10 mile limits and hits a city in the United States or multiple cities? Since Obama has weakened the nuclear missile defense program, how will we defend against it? Since Obama has now given out the number of missiles we have in our arsenal, how long do you think it will be before some country with a mad man as its leader will decide to test our President and our nation? Are you prepared for a nuclear or an EMP bomb?
If this were a perfect world no one would be armed or need to fear their neighbor. If we all were on the same level of understanding, education, finances, and especially moral or perhaps I should same level on an understanding of "love", we would not need to worry or protect ourselves. The fact remains this is not a perfect world. There are people and countries who are our enemies. There are people who are crazy. There are countries whose religion and political philosophy strives to be number one in this world. Until you can change the hearts and minds of all men, you have to defend yourself and prepare yourself.
By the way the answer to the first question is 10-12 minutes - if it is detected. This then needs to be communicated to our military response units and then the response. Not much of a margin for error so you just keep thinkin' that 10 miles is enough to protect us from our enemies and their missiles and you just keep believing this country is not vulnerable and you just dismissing any attempt to be pro-active with regards to defending this country. Hope this works out for you.
Len| 5.6.10 @ 4:54PM
Let's start by first responding to this constitutionally. If as you believe we need to extend ourselves throughout the world to protect ourselves from a nuclear attack (EMP is only an issue due to our weak infrastructure, so not a military issue) why then does not the congress fulfill what is their clear constitutional obligation and petition the states for further power through the amendment process, or likewise the states believing it necessary for our defense seek a con-con to amend the US constitution for such. When those who are our agents act as our rulers, we are then their subjects dependent on their good graces for our liberties. We will all die, but if in the meantime others are determining our lives what purpose then for government?
Your scenario of a nuclear bomb is a false dilemma. In other words you are claiming that by having armed men on the ground throughout the world, we can then prevent a nuclear attack. We have 60, 000 soldiers in Germany, 28,000 in S. Korea, please explain how these men or the bases they are stationed at will prevent a nuclear attack. They will not, nor were they originally posted in those and other locations for such a reason.
I would also ask by what right we are allowed to impose our will on others, other than our size? Would you be so agreeable to China stationing their forces in Canada or Mexico due to our belligerent policing and yes invasions of other countries for our purposes? How does one having WMDs as Iraq had justify our attacking them? Are other countries then in the right to attack us on the same premise of preemptiveness? So we now fight wars to avoid wars?
Your problem is in trying to conflate nuclear defense ( a highly unlikely and more importantly unprovable assertion) with our actual actions throughout the world. The "madman" argument really needs to be retired, particularly when calling so many countries our enemies. I grant these people are evil and not our friends, but again it is we who are belligerent and attempt to impose our will on these countries, why on earth would they not then want to be armed to protect themselves as all countries have the right to do?
When you are willing to separate the two arguments of military intervention and nuclear defense, or believe that you can make an argument for their being one and the same, please let me know.
Linda B.| 5.7.10 @ 4:15PM
EMP is a military issue! Unless military communication systems are hardened against EMP, they will fail. One of the major objectives of a military operation is to decapitate the leadership, thus making the forces incapable of conducting coordinated attacks and susceptible to piecemeal destruction.
Right now we have no nuclear missile defense. The current program is in planning, but has little or no funding for execution. There are no military fighters that can shoot down a nuclear missile. We also do not have any fighter squadrons or other forces pulling military alert like we did during the days of the Strategic Air Command.
Is this a perfect world? The only answer is no. Thus, each individual must prepare himself his family and protect himself in the event of an attack. Each person must teach his children to use communication first, but if attacked he must know what to do. Countries are no different. They must be prepared and must protect their citizens. The best defense is a good offense so we have bases and agreements with other countries throughout the world to provide not only for the protection of our citizens here and abroad, but to assist other countries.
I suppose like most of the people in this country you missed the news that in deed there were weapons of mass destruction in Iraq which were moved out of Iraq to Syria just before the war. There are other reasons for this war besides the weapons. The leadership of this country tortured and killed millions like the Kurds and other religious and ethnic groups who threatened them. Rooms were discovered in the homes of the military leaders and political leaders designed specifically to engage is this action. Many of these homes had high powered voltage lines used to inflict their victims. Massive graves were discovered and documented all across this country. Besides this war was voted on and approved by Congress.
It appears you like many in this country including our president are more focused on (in your opinion) what is more wrong than what is right. Again, I believe this world is imperfect and as such you need to provide for the protection of your citizens and prepare. Maybe that means having bases in other countries and having soldiers stationed overseas. Most of these bases are by agreements between the two countries. Many countries requested our presence. As for having the Chinese locating troops in Canada or Mexico, I believe international agreements and alliances deter that from happening and these are signed by the heads of state or their official representatives.
For now I need to put my energy into my job and my family and the defense of this country.
T1Brit| 5.7.10 @ 4:41AM
American dead in WW1 was 53,402
not 400,000
Len | 5.6.10 @ 11:38AM
Correction..WW 1 deaths were only(ONLY?) 117,000 or so.
PineKnot| 5.6.10 @ 12:49PM
Obama is covering up more DPRK shenanigans. See http://www.eutimes.net/2010/05.....-oil-rig/. If this purported Russian story is true, we should be wiping the DPRK off the face of the earth.
Tim| 5.6.10 @ 2:55PM
Wasn't there an episode of Star Trek vaguely similar? Not that it bears upon this in any serious way.
WJ| 5.6.10 @ 3:01PM
Mr. Babbin:
Can you please write a follow-up explaining why we should be the primary on this with NK? If SK is not willing to act, then why should we? I would really like to understand your reasoning.
Of course, if we are attacked that is a different story.
JP| 5.6.10 @ 5:01PM
If anyone questions why this is our problem, I suggest they read up on today's market actvitiy. Early this afternoon Moodys downgraded the credit worthiness of several European nations; within 30 minutes the DJIA fell 1000 points. Yes, it recovered 700 points within the next 30 minutes. But the point is, if NK attacks SK the entire Asian Basin is at risk. And if one considers the investment and financial dealings we have with Japan, Taiwan, and Communist China (not to mention SK), our entire economic system is at risk.
Weakness on our part vis-a-vis NK, beginning with Clinton and continuing through Bush and Obama now is becoming quite problematic. There is no putting your head in the sand when foreigners own or contribute some $4 trillion to ones economy.
Len| 5.6.10 @ 5:31PM
So you're arguing that we need to spend ourselves into a hole so deep we can't get out, in order to sustain our economy?
JR| 5.6.10 @ 10:52PM
Obama is going to get us all killed with his nutty appeasement stance to practically any threat to our country. Whenever common sense says that we should hold firm to holding tyrants and others wanting to do us harm responsible for their actions, you can count on the Administration doing exactly the opposite.
These folks are dangerous, and they're going to get us killed!
MS office 2007 | 5.8.10 @ 10:55AM
Obama does NOT have an ostrich strategy. His actions are purposful, deliberate and intentional, consistent with the neo-communist, Marxist ,hate America-firster he is.
Pingback| 5.9.10 @ 2:59PM
Lee to discuss Cheonan tragedy with China? | Business and investment links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
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