Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) is gumming up the works. For once, it
is the Democrats who are being inconvenienced by his declarations
of independence. Today, Graham was to join Sens. John Kerry
(D-MA) and Joe Lieberman (I-CT) in releasing a scaled-down
cap-and-trade bill. But the grand unveiling was scuttled by
Graham’s righteous anger over immigration.
Over the weekend, Graham assailed Senate Majority Leader Harry
Reid’s (D-NV) plans to move ahead on immigration before cap and
trade. “Moving forward on immigration — in this hurried,
panicked manner — is nothing more than a cynical ploy,” the
Palmetto State’s senior senator said in a letter. “Unless their
plan substantially changes this weekend, I will be unable to move
forward on energy independence legislation at this time.”
In the aftermath of the health care juggernaut, Graham had been
the token Republican senator abetting a Democratic effort to
revive the flagging national energy tax. The
Kerry-Graham-Lieberman version contains more concessions to
business than the Waxman-Markey bill that narrowly passed the
House last year. It also tried to streamline the system for
capping greenhouse emissions while sticking to the goal of
reducing carbon dioxide output by 17 percent over a decade.
Then came the news that Reid wants to pursue “comprehensive
immigration reform” after his colleagues are done fooling around
with the financial sector. Senator Graham was not amused. “Let’s
be clear,” he said. “A phony, political effort on immigration
today accomplishes nothing but making it exponentially more
difficult to address in a serious, comprehensive manner in the
future.”
Having had the rug pulled out from under him on immigration,
Graham returned the favor on climate legislation. But isn’t
Graham — lovingly nicknamed “Grahamnesty” by those to his right
on immigration — a supporter of both amnesty and cap and trade?
What gives?
There are two reasons for Graham’s discontent. The first is that
there is no reason to believe that the country is ready to give
amnesty to millions of illegal immigrants and increase
low-skilled legal immigration when American unemployment stands
at 10 percent. This looks more like a Democratic effort to turn
out Hispanic voters — crucial in Senate races like Reid’s in
Nevada — rather than a serious attempt to overhaul the nation’s
immigration laws.
Reid’s strategy: offer up amnesty to check the boxes for Latino
activist groups only to have Republicans take the lead in voting
it down. This will also have the effect of pushing a vote on cap
and trade closer to the midterm elections, making it less likely
to pass. Republican defectors like Lindsey Graham will be asked
to walk the plank twice, with nothing to show for it.
An early immigration fight particularly inconveniences Graham’s
friend Sen. John McCain (R-AZ). McCain is locked in a tough
primary fight with former Congressman J.D. Hayworth. The
incumbent’s amnesty advocacy is a major reason for his
vulnerability. Gov. Jan Brewer just read the tea leaves and
signed Arizona’s new attrition through enforcement law,
concluding that to do otherwise in a state fed up with illegal
immigration was political suicide.
But if McCain is forced to vote against the approach to
immigration policy he has spent the last decade defending, he
will have to answer for his flip-flop with those who supported
him during the dark days of McCain-Kennedy. That indignity John
McCain’s Mini-Me in the Senate cannot allow.
Of course, some Democrats hope they can ram through both amnesty
and cap and trade as they did health care. Senate Democrats have
written into their budget resolution the proviso that “jobs
legislation,” however defined, can be enacted through the
expedited reconciliation process. Any energy legislation
considered by the Senate this year will purport to create green
jobs, potentially making it filibuster-proof.
The idea is to pass as much of the liberal wish list as possible
before Democrats lose congressional seats in November. But a
rapid succession of politically risky votes in an election year
is bound to take its toll on senators and congressmen
representing swing states. Growing conservative pressure could
make Republican defectors willing to vote for such bills hard to
come by.
If such pressure can work on perpetual mavericks like McCain and
Graham, it can brought to bear on anyone inside the GOP. The
Buggles once sang that video killed the radio star. Might amnesty
kill cap and trade?
We can’t rewind, we’ve gone too far.
