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Political Hay
Storm Watch in New Orleans
Big stories behind the big scene in the Big Easy.
NEW ORLEANS — Rep. Mike Pence was on his way out of the Southern Republican Leadership Conference when he stopped near the front door of the Riverside Hilton to speak for a few moments to a man in a blue suit. Business cards were exchanged between aides, a few photos were snapped, and then the chairman of the House Republican Conference continued on his way.
News had just happened, but this brief meeting did not result in a headline on the Drudge Report, nor was it reported by any of the network correspondents attending the conference, none of whom would have recognized the man in the blue suit. The big headlines from the four-day GOP gathering included Mitt Romney’s narrow win in the 2012 presidential straw poll, a controversial quote from Ron Paul and the umpteenth reiteration of the major media’s favorite political question: Whither Sarah Palin?
Far from the main stage, away from the television cameras and unnoticed by reporters covering the speeches by famous names, other stories were developing, stories of potentially greater importance — and certainly more urgent than the question of who will carry the Republican banner in a presidential election more than two years in the future.
For hundreds of GOP congressional candidates, the only date that matters is not 2012, but Nov. 2 — now less than seven months away — and for many of those candidates, their campaigns will end sooner, as multi-candidate primaries have become the rule rather than the exception in a mid-term free-for-all perhaps destined to be known as the Year of Republican Hope.
Whether that Hope will result in Change Conservatives Can Believe In is the big question of 2010, a mathematical calculation that may involve the man in the blue suit, Ray McKinney, who had never met Mike Pence before their Saturday afternoon conversation near the front door of the Hilton.
In the few minutes of their impromptu meeting, however, McKinney conveyed to Pence the necessary information: He is a candidate in Georgia’s 12th District, seeking the Republican nomination to take on Rep. John Barrow, a “Blue Dog” Democrat whose peculiar vulnerability is one factor in the calculations for Nov. 2. If the GOP can make a net gain of 40 seats in this fall’s mid-terms, Nancy Pelosi will become the former Speaker of the House, and Republicans cannot afford to miss any opportunity for a pickup — especially when liberals seem determined to lend a helping hand. The story of Barrow and GA12 is the tale of a building electoral storm with enough political power to evoke memories of Hurricane Katrina’s devastating impact on New Orleans in August 2005 — a year before Pelosi and the Democrats broke Republicans’ 12-year control of the House.
The 12th District was one of two new congressional seats Georgia gained after the 2000 Census, when Democrats still controlled the Georgia General Assembly and sought to carve out a stronghold for their party. Yet GA12 has proven to be more conservative than its designers anticipated, rated only a “plus one” for Democrats by respected national analyst Charlie Cook, and has a see-saw history. Republican Max Burns was elected to Congress by a surprising 10-point margin in the 2002 mid-terms, but lost his 2004 re-election bid to Barrow by four points. In 2006, otherwise a disastrous wipeout for the GOP, Burns came back to challenge Barrow and lost by fewer than 900 votes out of some 140,000 ballots cast. And then came 2008, when Obama’s promise of Hope and Change proved the electoral tide that lifted all Democratic boats.
With a surge of black turnout in a district where more than 40 percent of the residents are black, GA12 re-elected Barrow — a white moderate — by a whopping 2-to-1 majority over a former GOP congressional aide, John Stone. Here, however, the story took a strange twist. In 2008, Barrow first had to overcome a Democratic primary challenge from state Sen. Regina Thomas, a black legislator with a far more liberal record and message. After winning that primary with 76 percent of the vote, Barrow then got a general-election boost from Barack Obama. However, Barrow has since voted against key items in the Obama agenda — including two votes against the recently-passed health-care law.
Thomas has returned this year to challenge Barrow again in the July 20 Democratic primary, only now she has the enthusiastic backing of liberal groups like MoveOn.org and Blue America PAC, and the powerful DailyKos blog site, which seem as eager as any Republican to make Blue Dog Democrats an extinct species. Enter McKinney, a nuclear power project manager who two years ago ran a grassroots campaign for the GOP nomination and scored a surprising 32 percent of the primary vote. “We weren’t expected to get 10 percent of the vote,” says McKinney, who describes the style of his first campaign as “Joe the Candidate.”
Now a state party committeeman, McKinney had been supporting a promising Republican candidate, Vidalia physician Dr. Wayne Mosely, who subsequently decided not to seek the GA12 seat. Other candidates — including Savannah Tea Party founder Jeanne Seaver and Carl Smith, fire chief in the town of Thunderbolt near Savannah — have declared their candidacies for the July 20 primary. On friendly terms with the other Republican candidates, McKinney says he hopes the GOP primary campaign won’t “go negative,” which would weaken the winner against Barrow, who he expects to emerge “bruised and battered” from the Democratic primary — assuming, of course, that the incumbent is not upset by the liberal insurgency of Thomas, who has denounced Barrow for “six years of lies.”
None of McKinney’s Republican rivals have lined up the level of financial support that he expects to bring into the race. Declaring his candidacy at the end of March, he says he now has more than $100,000 campaign cash on hand and has pledges of more than $80,000 in contributions.
That was a key part of the message he came to New Orleans to convey to Republican leaders like Pence. GA12 “hasn’t really been on the radar” for the national GOP level this election cycle. After talking to staff of the National Republican Congressional Committee at the conference, McKinney says the NRCC now plans to put the district on its “watch list” — not yet a “target” race, but worth keeping an eye on as the GOP looks for opportunities to exploit in a mid-term campaign where Democratic incumbents in more liberal regions than rural Georgia are already beginning to glance nervously at the polling forecasts.
“The Road to Victory Begins in New Orleans,” the cover of this weekend’s conference program declared. Exactly where that road will leads between now and November is a path as unpredictable as a tropical storm, but if the Republican wave surges through Georgia’s 12th District, that little-noticed encounter Saturday in the Hilton lobby could be part of a very big story on Nov. 2.
About the Author
Robert Stacy McCain is co-author (with Lynn Vincent) of Donkey Cons: Sex, Crime, and Corruption in the Democratic Party (Nelson Current). He blogs at The Other McCain.
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Old Joe| 4.12.10 @ 8:10AM
Good article but for us here in southeast Louisiana who lived through Katrina and the aftermath, it looses some punch when you can't even get the year of Katrina right, much less the month. Write this down, Katrina was Monday, August 29th, 2005.
Cug Smith| 4.12.10 @ 10:28AM
Old Joe,
You beat me to the punch. Democrats and Republicans, alike, enjoy citing Katrina whenever anything associated with New Orleans is addressed. They should at least be able to get the timeline correct! By August 31, 2005, my dad's old house in Lakeview was in 11 feet of water. It was a year (not two months) of bashing the Bush administration over the handling of Katrina that helped contribute to the Democratic takeover of congress in 2006. This, in return, made it easier for the purveyors of "victimhood" to continue supporting the "wards of the Nanny State" in New Orleans with our tax dollars nearly five years later.
Cug Smith
Pierre Part, LA
Ryan| 4.12.10 @ 10:59AM
Wow, they have internet in Pierre Part? I grew up fishing down there - my family has a camp in Stephensville on Bayou Long, near Verret.
Cug Smith| 4.12.10 @ 11:23AM
Believe it or not, in 2007, we were even able to get high-speed cable internet! Having grown up in New Orleans in the 50's & 60's, moving to Belle River in Lower St. Martin Parish has been like a return to the past. We actually know our neighbors, visit with them, and help one another. Unlike today's situations in my former neighborhoods in New Orleans and Baton Rouge, when you hear gunfire in Belle River, it is someone sighting-in their hunting rifle, or shooting something for supper!
Ryan| 4.12.10 @ 1:30PM
Either that or someone shooting buckshot at anyone going over "no-wake speed."
Alan Brooks| 4.12.10 @ 11:54PM
I heard as many complaints from rightwingers on Katrina: "all Bush cares about is sendin' money to Iraq and them thar neocons."
You people are terribly out of touch now that the Cold War is over-- no wonder Obama is president, no wonder at all. Why Clinton was able to get himself elected and re-elected is also becoming clear. You people are clueless; you are casting about for a conservatism that doesn't exist anymore, conning yourselves Palin will be elected in '12, or that the Tea Partiers willl come up with something that isn't hare-brained.
Old Joe| 4.13.10 @ 9:34AM
Lets not forget that when Katrina hit, we had a Democrat Mayor who didn't follow his own emergency plan and a Democrat Governor that had to be forced by the President to take help from the feds. Amazing how the lame stream media and the Democrat party spun that into Bush's fault.
Al Adab| 4.12.10 @ 11:52AM
The straw poll seems most revealing about the current state of the GOP. A split between Romney and Paul clearly demonstrates the schizophenic state of the party. Neither can take the party where it needs to go.
Only when Conservatives lead ala 1980, 1994 does the GOP enjoy success. Until and unless the Conservative Movement regains a predominant position within the GOP the future is not bright. The accomodationist wing, represented by Ronmey (like father like son) is only a route to failure. The Libertarian sect continues to wallow in its systemic error. Either would lead only to a repeat of past loses. Only principled Conservatives may offer a hope of victory. The cause trumps the Party.
Ken (Old Texican)| 4.12.10 @ 4:03PM
Al Adab,
There you go again, talking sense!
...but let's re-focus on 2010. If we don't sweep that election, we won't be in a position to vote meaningfully in 2012.
That is my very best prognostication.
Al Adab| 4.12.10 @ 4:19PM
Ken,
Of course, first things first. Thanks for the response.
The question remaining is however, can the voters actually choose statism over Constitutionalism? If so what of the rest of us? If not, then such an election would be unlawful. Do the citizens have any way to enforce their Constitution against those who, while taking an oath to defend it, constantly violate the same? They are foresworn, but how does one act on violators?
Margie| 4.12.10 @ 9:15PM
Hi Al,
I'm not really worried about Romney becoming the nominee for prez. For some reason, I'm not even able to take that seriously (according to all of this polling & etc.). It's too far off and anyway I'm banking on the fact that too many of us conservatives simply don't want him! Let's hope we keep awake enough and angry enough in our fight against the big wigs in the RNC~ sending no money to the machine but to specific candidates, etc. Hey, if Newt is starting to listen, (he is, isn't he?) maybe the rest will.
If we keep up the momentum we can keep on winning~ NJ MA VA. It's already happening.
Alan Brooks| 4.12.10 @ 11:58PM
"The straw poll seems most revealing about the current state of the GOP. A split between Romney and Paul clearly demonstrates the schizophenic state of the party."
Ken, not only is Al Adab talking sense, he makes more sense than some of the professional writers at AS-- which might not be saying a whole lot.
Alan Brooks| 4.13.10 @ 12:00AM
"Hey, if Newt is starting to listen, (he is, isn't he?) maybe the rest will."
No, Newt has his own presidential ambitions. He is as opportunistic as anyone-- but he is getting a little too long in the tooth. The geronotocracy don't cut it no more.
Margie| 4.14.10 @ 12:52PM
Don't shoot the messenger, Alan! If Newt speaks truthfully he is on our side. Conservatives live by the truth, not by a man's appearance like Obama. Obama may sound good (to some), but what he stands for is rotten to the core.
Pingback| 4.12.10 @ 3:30PM
Ray McKinney: A Republican Hope For Georgia’s Twelfth « Blog Entry « Dr. Melissa Clo links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
victoria_29| 4.12.10 @ 3:33PM
Another example of how out of touch the national party is with what is happening on the ground in districts. Glad that Pence at least seems open to looking at the change in dynamics.
Pingback| 4.12.10 @ 6:20PM
My Emergency Evacuation: Good-Bye to the Big Easy; Hello, Sweet Home Alabama : The O links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
blarset | 4.12.10 @ 7:42PM
MITT ROMNEY- father of the ,"MAGIC 50"
Pingback| 4.12.10 @ 8:32PM
Wrap-Up on the Southern Republican Leadership Conference | UNCOVERAGE.net links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
MacAoidh | 4.12.10 @ 9:26PM
That's not the only behind-the-scenes news which came out of SRLC - it appears left-wing protestors attacked Gov. Bobby Jindal's chief fundraiser outside of a function at a French Quarter restaurant and put her and her boyfriend in the hospital.
http://thehayride.com/2010/04/.....r-a-story/
chi | 4.13.10 @ 8:39AM
Because they find contentment in private life, conservatives are often temperamentally unsuited to leadership and susceptible to guidance by neoconservatives. Ronald Reagan was the rare case of a successful conservative leader who steered clear of wars. After the Beirut barracks bombing of 1983 he extricated the U.S. from the region in preference to war.
Alfred| 4.13.10 @ 12:07PM
To this day, many republicans, in their zeal to bash democrats and defend Bush, refuse to concede that the response to Katrina was a failure at all levels of government. In addition, they refuse to admit or recognize the Army Corps of Engineers' culpability for this disaster. People need to understand that in New Orleans, Katrina was never a natural disaster, but a man-made one.
Pingback| 4.13.10 @ 6:01PM
Seared And Roiling In The French Quarter « The Camp Of The Saints links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
David| 4.14.10 @ 2:05PM
Alan, Clinton won two elections because Ross Perot was in the race. He got 19% the first election and 11% the second. THAT is why Clinton won. Your's was a poor attempt to rewrite history.
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