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Will 2010 Be Another 1994?

Five surprise developments in 2009 point to a great reversal this fall.

(Page 3 of 3)

If the Republicans run the table as the Democrats did in 2006 and 2008, they will take the Senate. They will, at worst, solidify their ability to filibuster Obama's agenda for the next two years.

CAN OBAMA/REID/PELOSI RECOVER, change strategy, and avoid defeat as Clinton did between 1994 and 1996? It looks unlikely. Obama's reaction to losing in Massachusetts was to call for higher taxes on banks, dropping the stock market 500 points. The Chicago gang believes it has been insufficiently left-wing and anti-business in 2009. One cannot correct errors one does not see.

And the independents who broke for the Democrats in 2006 and 2008 in opposition to Bush's unending commitment to Iraq have shifted back hard against the Democrats' spending and debt policies. Independents who polled like Democrats in 2006 and 2008 now look like Republicans in their views on taxes, spending, and size of government, and they share Republican enthusiasm for getting to the polls in 2010.

Democrats have failed to replicate their political and legislative dominance of the 1930s and 1960s. This next year will tell us if Republicans can complete their reversal and repeat the successes of 1994.

Page:   1 23

About the Author

Grover G. Norquist is the president of Americans for Tax Reform. 

Letter to the Editor View all comments (60) | Leave a comment

Derek Leaberry| 3.23.10 @ 8:49AM

Anything Norquist writes must be considered suspect. He is on board with Lindsey Graham, John McCain, the Bush family, and the Wall Street Journal editorial page in efforts to enact demographic revolution in the United States that would inevitably not only turn the nation upside down culturally but make it impossible for conservatives to maintain political majorities.

Ryan| 3.23.10 @ 9:47AM

Okay, then it's suspect.

How is he wrong in substance?

Missy| 3.23.10 @ 2:27PM

Does Norquist support amnesty?

loulou| 3.23.10 @ 6:04PM

Grover probably does support amnesty but I'm not certain.

All I know is that he has close ties to jihadis and his wife is an Arab (not that there is anything necessarily wrong with that). I take what he says with a grain of salt.

victor| 3.23.10 @ 10:57PM

Here ya go:
http://www.wnd.com/index.php?pageId=126333

Gary Wood| 3.23.10 @ 8:57AM

Derek your comment reads like something written by someone with a lot to say but who chooses too few words in which to say it. For openers, skip the ad hominem and at least state what if anything is suspect about the analysis.

serfer62| 3.23.10 @ 11:22PM

Gary...yes. What Norquist wrote was not that other stuff, but election projections. And on that hes right on...

Ken (Old Texican)| 3.23.10 @ 8:57AM

Derek,
It don't matter!
He simply layed out, (laid out?) the shape of the field. Pretty accurately as far as TEAM America can determine. http://judgeroy.wordpress.com

Alan Brooks| 3.23.10 @ 9:03AM

I'm not exactly a demon for details; but specifically what is it that is worst about the Bush family, Derek?
As the Kennedys, they want power too much. Reagan's family wasn't, and isn't, power obsessed.

Reagan's adopted son has a radio program, but he is talented, and not on the air for power.

Derek Leaberry| 3.23.10 @ 9:56AM

The Bush family are plutocratic, non-productive sorts of folks who wish to legalized tens of millions of illegal aliens from the Third World in order to serve their corporate bosses who wish to drive down wages.

Alan Brooks| 3.23.10 @ 12:24PM

Sure, isn't that all about power?

Alan Brooks| 3.23.10 @ 12:29PM

But, Derek, the following question is IMO important enough that it might deserve a v. straight answer:
why were the Kennedys any better, more productive and less plutocratic, than the Bush family is or was?

Derek Leaberry| 3.23.10 @ 1:26PM

True, the Kennedys were more corrosive in many ways than the Bushes. However, the Kennedys have been enemies of conservatives for many years. The Bushes have pretended to be friends with conservatives yet have betrayed conservatives on numerous occasions- Amnesty, No Child Left Behind, the Medicare expansion, Poppy's Read My Lips lie on taxes from the past. I dislike backstabbers more than I do those who directly and honestly oppose me.

As for productivity, I am not sure that either family has been particularly hardworking since JFK and Poppy's World War Two valor, which I honor. Both families seem to have gotten ahead by becoming expert gladhanders.

Alan Brooks| 3.23.10 @ 2:08PM

All true Derek, yet as soon as the Cold War ended, American conservatism became strategically incoherent.
The anti-Soviet glue dissolved after '89-- to be replaced by nothing.
The demographics today favor Latinos, so a Tancredo couldn't even be elected governor of Colorado. Millionaire seniors want govt funds....

Derek Leaberry| 3.23.10 @ 2:12PM

You are very right regarding the Cold War glue. Conservatism splintered as soon as the USSR collapsed. Funny, I wonder how many Americans even know what the USSR was? The USSR fades into the mist of time as remote as Dwight Eisenhower, Robert E. Lee and Genghis Khan.

Alan Brooks| 3.23.10 @ 2:20PM

Derek,
what about Latino influence/power on US demographics?

Derek Leaberry| 3.23.10 @ 3:23PM

I think the Republican Party will be the minority party for most of this century. But then again, you never know how this slow-motion bankruptcy is going to play out. Francis Fukayama famously wrote in the early 90s that we were at "the end of history." Yet he ignored that history is often capricious and it never ends.

Alan Brooks| 3.23.10 @ 2:16PM

"No Child Left Behind,"

GOP feel-good.
Children will always be left behind, due to the variation in the gene pool; variation in childrens' abilities.

Bob Miller| 3.23.10 @ 9:11AM

Norquist is also owned by Arab interests.

Alan Brooks| 3.23.10 @ 12:22PM

Well, den he caint be accused if being a RACIST.

David Williams| 3.23.10 @ 9:50AM

I'd be very careful about ebullience over a Mike Castle senate victory in Delaware. He is not a conservative moderate republican. He is just a moderate in the style of Specter, Collins and Snowe which he demonstrated by his vote with the Democrats on Cap and Trade. Essentially, he is a politician to his core and a big government one at that. The only reason for joy is that he is a better choice than Beau Biden, by a long shot.

Ken (Old Texican)| 3.23.10 @ 11:25AM

Hi David.
One thought I have had is that given support and encouragement and/or party discipline, any Republican is a much better vote than ANY Democrat.

John Navratil| 3.23.10 @ 11:59AM

Ken,

Not to quibble, it's just hypothetical, but I'd take a Daniel Patrick Moynihan over a Chuck Hagel. You can deal with a principled opponent, but not a weasel who claims to have your back.

owyheewine| 3.23.10 @ 10:02AM

As conservatives we need to keep in mind who the real enemy is. Liberals won control by running "moderates" in conservative districts, because liberals would have gone down to crushing defeat. Candidates that agree on the majority of issues in liberal districts and states serve our cause a hell of a lot better than the wacky leftists that now have their jack boots on our necks.
Idealogical purity is nice, but it has to be moderated by judgement.
Conservatives will become dominant agian, because our cause is just. We only need to stay patient and make progress in however small steps that are necessary. We do need to stay vigilant and keep those that we elect from straying into the Beltway culture swamp.

Thorvald| 3.23.10 @ 10:23AM

Norquist, for whatever reason, is offering false hope. The mass of the electorate is less rational than it has ever been. Millions of voters daily consume mind-altering substances to the degree that metabolites of some legal ones show up in some watersheds. The enemy has succeeded in infiltrating our institutions-- even many churches-- far better than the Commies ever did. Each new cohort of young voters have had their physical brains altered by the pernicious boob tube.
We are at the point of Lincoln-Douglas, and Lincoln just lost. Incremental gains in Congress will likely be insufficient. I fear we will soon need to collect ears and string them on 20-pound monofilament "pour encourager les autres".

Wayang Kulit| 3.23.10 @ 10:37AM

Norquist is a Swedish name. You can take the Swede out of Sweden, but you can't take the Swedish out of a Swede. (E.g., "Neutral? Hey, great idea! Let's do that while the Nazis bleed Norway white."

John Navratil| 3.23.10 @ 5:27PM

It seems you, yourself, have given up hope. While the electorate gave us Obama (a profound disappointment) there is ample evidence that -- Surprise! -- he isn't what he promised and the electorate is responding. To assume the electorate is irrational is to adopt the Pelosi/Reid/Obama position. If, it is true, we should just take our Soma and go to the "feelies".

I think not!

William R| 3.23.10 @ 10:30AM

Norquist is a phony. Says he's for limited government but supports mass immigration which is the Viagra of the state. It grows government. Mass immigration while there's a huge welfare state is the ultimate health of the state. Milton Friedman knew it. Ron Paul knows it.

maverick muse| 3.23.10 @ 11:04AM

If 2010 is 1994, we're lost.

Let's hope that the conservative American protest against government and party corruption makes all the difference this election given the major TEA PARTY REVOLT. I don't want to recapitulate 1994 with another neoconservative bipartisan-led Republican Party majority in 2010 or 2012, with some opportunist playing the Newt Gingrich rules of Deem And Pass pork barrel ear-mark legislation that expands both government and debt, and FAILS to enact permanent tax cuts or hold federal bureaus and programs within a limited budget. A re-do of 1994 would be another whoring of conservatism, encouraging the expansive "neoconservative"(progressive socialism pirating the Republican Party) fraud, profit and power. Getting Republican citizens to vote for the Contract With America was only for propaganda purposes (similar to Obama promising to pull our troops out of the Middle East). Our 1994 newly elected constitutional conservative Republicans made it to Washington only to find their Republican Congressional leadership sabotaging all conservative effort to rescind corruption and cut taxes.

2010 had better empower the Constitutional Conservative agenda in EFFECTIVE majority power, eschewing neoconservative agenda and concentrating legislation to affirm the Constitution as the supreme law of the land, repealing and prosecuting sponsors of unconstitutional laws, rules and programs to the full extent of the law.

Instead of adding on, it's time to cleanse the temple.

Cris Worth| 3.23.10 @ 11:08AM

Warning to the GOP: Don't count your chickens before they Orrin Hatch. This health care victory has reenergized the Democrat Party and deflated the tea partiers the last conservative political hope. Besides can conservatives really depend on majority Republicans to do anything right including reversing liberal initiatives? History shows they can't. Just ask senator Grahamnesty (R-SC) who supports amnesty of illegal immigrants.

davelnaf| 3.23.10 @ 12:06PM

Don’t kid yourself CW. There’s a lot of energy (substitute anger) out there against Democrats.

maverick muse| 3.23.10 @ 11:17AM

There is no legitimacy as virtue in the neoconservative mantra for "centrism".

Centrist politics today are socialist and proudly gave us the unconstitutional Dept. of Education and the Dept. of Homeland Security to unleash Marxism to dissolve our Constitutional Governance and our American Liberty.

Since the political pendulum has swung into authoritarian Marxism in Obama's administration and appointments, the only way out of that hell is to swing back to the Libertarian "Classical Liberal" stance of our founders, at which point the designation of "centrist" would no longer define socialism, but rather would define upholding the Constitution as the supreme law of the land.

Critics who eschew Constitutional Governance as an obsolete way of life are blind to the LIVING traditions of our American Heritage in the lives of Americans, and our Constitution's unique balance of powers with Liberty for citizens as the law applies equally to everyone, especially the POTUS and governing officials who swore their oath to defend and protect The Constitution of the United States. Critics of the Constitution are envious and covetous Marxists who want to pirate the USA.

davelnaf| 3.23.10 @ 11:30AM

Republicans should stay focused on November and, taking a page out of the Obama book, do whatever it takes to win.

maverick muse| 3.23.10 @ 11:30AM

Chris Worth
Tea Party participants already proved their determination by the show on the lawns and steps of our nation's Capitol, and at Townhall Meetings with elected representatives. You think people who already invested in reclaiming their Constitutional Rights are going to give up since Obama still rules the day?

I refute your presumptive assumption that the Tea Party participants are "deflated" in depression. Conservative activists don't give up any more easily that socialists. And now that the masks are off ALL of our leaders, it makes protest that much more effective. I would point out the obvious, that as one protesting corruption, this socialist agenda only spurs me into action reclaiming the Republican Party by attending precinct, regional and state meetings and voting for Tea Party constitutional and fiscal conservative candidates despite the Alinsky ridicule from the pompous neoconservative voices for status quo, meaning THEIR elitist power to abuse as authoritarian-Republicans.

Cris Worth| 3.23.10 @ 12:09PM

If the Tea Party movement is just the right arm of the Republican Party and it's purpose to flush out the GOP liberal element it won't work. Forget about reclaiming the Republican Party. Take a page out of the liberal playbook build from the ground up, recruit/train/run for office INDEPENDENT strict constitutionalist conservatives. Utilize the courts to support your position and overturn opposition positions. You need to brush up on your GOP history, except for Reagan failure at every turn especially rolling back liberal largesse. The last GOP president made expensive additions to Great Society program Medicare and supported amnesty of illegal immigrants instead of enforcing constitutionally mandated immigration laws. The leading 2012 GOP contender, liberal on social issues, provided the Democrats a blue print for the now signed into law health care plan. Can the Tea Party realistically reform the Republican Party?

Grant| 3.23.10 @ 1:01PM

You may be on to something re: the Republican party. Forget David Frum, even Chris Buckley went for the Bamster. Romney is dead in the water now, probably especially in Massachusetts as they're living under Romneycare.
If party loyalty won't save America from Socialism, something else is going to have to do so. We're the last great hope of mankind.
Step #2: purge the liberals from Fox Radio News.

Siegfried X| 3.23.10 @ 2:19PM

The Tea Parties have ALREADY changed the Republican Party. Specter is gone. As the article said, Republicans were unanimous against ObamaCare and against all major Obama legislation after the stimulus.

For the first time in decades left-wing "maverick" Republicans are voting with their own party instead of like Democrats.

Cris Worth| 3.23.10 @ 2:44PM

Tea partiers supported Scott Brown's election, yet senator Brown betrays their support right off the bat by voting with the Democrats on Obama's job bill. I don't see any GOP unanimity here.

emo| 3.23.10 @ 8:19PM

Youre so transparent CW. Is this the best you can do?

Mimi| 3.23.10 @ 12:32PM

Yes, CLEANSE THE TEMPLE register andvote in all republican primaries. We've gone from Jan. 2009: " Oh well a first black president , hope he does well for us" to Feb/MAR.2009: : Whoa wait aminute here". Month after month one outrage after another. WE have gone from fear to anger to activism and now we've reached THE PUKE STAGE and our great nation via RUSH " HANGS BY A THREAD" . WE want men and women, white black or PURPLE, with honor for constitution , integrity who can lead us out of this mess!

Margie| 3.23.10 @ 1:43PM

You've got it right Mimi.
Register and vote for conservatives who are running in the Republican party.
The third party route is a sure route to destruction because it will give us Obama II.
Rather than fortifying the Republican party there are those who want to destroy it and are sounding quite militant about it. They are just as dangerous as the Left. That is not conservatism.
When the planks of the Republican party are right~ Individual freedom, pro-life, pro-business, a strong Military defense, etc., why wouldn't they want to unite instead of try and divide?
Rush is right-we ARE hanging by a thread, and we cannot abide another Obama admin.!

Cris Worth| 3.23.10 @ 1:48PM

Interesting you mention Rush. Limbaugh came on the scene in August 1988, Reagan was President and the GOP had some semblance of political power especially Presidential elections. But since then the GOP nominated one RINO after another, remember Bob Dole? Threw away their most important election victory (1994) by supporting W.'s less than conservative policies. Now the country is saturated with liberalism...nationalized health care is here, pending amnesty of illegal immigrants with GOP complicity, massive tax increases including a VAT. Since 1988 conservative influence has diminished and the country has begun to disintegrate...what exactly has Limbaugh accomplished?

Margie| 3.23.10 @ 2:35PM

I'm just curious Chris,
If Rush ran for President as a Republican, would you vote for him?

Cris Worth| 3.23.10 @ 5:37PM

No. The difference between me and Limbaugh...his battle is more between the parties mine is ideological. The proof came last election cycle during the primaries when Limbaugh backed Romney who is a bald faced social liberal said so many times and governed that way. Romney's central theme in his failed Presidential bid was trying to convince us he was a born again conservative. Conservative ideologues quickly smelled a rat and his campaign faltered. Not Limbaugh, he viewed Romney as the strongest REPUBLICAN candidate not CONSERVATIVE candidate. Party trumped ideology. Coulter and Hannity fell into that trap also.

Margie| 3.23.10 @ 9:34PM

So, I'm trying to figure this out here. You wouldn't vote for Rush because he backed Romney because Romney is a Republican. Not because Rush is a conservative and since he is a conservative he would have the same ideology as you do? Or are you are saying then that you're angry with him for backing Romney and that's why you wouldn't vote for him?

If Rush isn't conservative, what is your idea of a conservative? Also~ didn't Rush and Ann C. back Romney after Thompson dropped out of the race?
The only thing I can say and I say it to my friends and acquaintances, is that we have 2 parties. One is Socialist, Marxist and Communist (pardon the longhand). The other one's platform is good. It is PRO America. There are individuals who run and get nominated that aren't perfect. If we want a more perfect individual then we must seek them out earlier on and back them both financially and otherwise. We don't live in a perfect world and will never have perfection but we can have pretty good candidates if we're willing to work for it.
That's it.
God bless.

Oldefarte| 3.23.10 @ 3:41PM

Kudos to Grover for his excellent, detailed analysis. The D's play political hardball, while the R's play according to Queensbury Rules; and the result has been a gradual increase in government from Kennedy-Johnson to Obama. R's lowering of taxes hasn't been followed up by lowering expenses, and therefore the budget/debt increases. Grover's point that, since D's have now balooned the expenses, that the inevitability of tax increases should follow, is accurate [since the ability to decrease expenses is extremely difficult politically]. Conservatives must continue the fight to success for government expense reductions [tax increases are the only alternative]; since same have historically increased to the extreme. Anyone with normal intelligence witnessing the federal budget is shocked at the waste, fraud and abuse of taxpayers' hard earned money contained therein. This simply has to be reduced and/or eliminated; and our political fight toward that end will be extemely difficult going forward!!!!

Margie| 3.23.10 @ 9:42PM

POI (point of interest)~ Heard today on the radio that our newly elected (I'm so proud!) gov. Chris Christie (NJ) today asked for public school workers not accept their raises in order to try and help reduce expenses, etc. Now how do you like that? And they said he was a RINO.
Now. This is what we need more of.

Margie| 3.23.10 @ 10:09PM

Here's Rush psyched about Christie's stance:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v.....re=related

And here's Christie's AWESOME budget speech about how he's going to cut gov. spending BIG time (this is part 2, there are other parts there you can watch) Enjoy!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NYUUqYDEyuo

Ken (Old Texican)| 3.23.10 @ 3:59PM

Hey guys, quit bitching and bellyaching about "neoconservatives".
NONE of you can even define the term, based upon your ignorant posts above.

I dare you! Write a post defining "neo-conservatives". I will LMAO when you finish...heh...unless you copy each other.

THIRD Party? Shaddduuup. You won't get one electoral vote.....again.........in 2012....except to contribute for Obama.
2010 congressional elections? Shaaaduuuuup! You will only help elect communists, (pardon the shorthand).
If you want a third party, then start right now raising a billion dollars and setting up a national coalition with teeth... instead of bad breath.
Find serious competitors who believe as you do, help them get nominated "R" then help them get elected...one by one.

John Navratil| 3.23.10 @ 6:00PM

I'll take your dare! A "neo-con" has a internationalist view (described as hawkish), generally socially conservative, but comfortable with a "compassionate" state. Often one who has "grown" from a more liberal position. As Margaret Thatcher may have said, somewhat damp. That said, the term has been tossed about with such abandon that any clear definition has been blurred. Just about anyone not considered ideologically pure has been called a neocon.

It's hard for me to group Krauthammer, Richard Perle, David Frum, John Bolton and Richard Armitage together, but they are all described as neocons.

(How did I do?)

That said, you are 100% correct that a third party is a path to the desert. The conservative Democrats moved to the Republican party in the 1960's (e.g. Reagan). It's time for conservatives to reclaim the party and let those closest to the margin decide which is the more comfortable home.

I'm happy Spector's decision has been made.

loulou| 3.23.10 @ 6:08PM

David Frum is not a neoconservative. He is a left-leaning RINO.

John Navratil| 3.23.10 @ 8:35PM

Precisely!

C.K. Amos| 3.23.10 @ 10:12PM

Frum a neo-con? That's rich. A former conservative, he's the robot the state-controlled lame-stream media march out, with his glowing assent, to trash conservatives and Republicans.

By the way: "conservative Democrats"? Ain't no such thing. Democrats are Democrats first, then maybe Americans. Liberals are liberals first, then maybe Democrats, but unlikely Americans.

C.K. Amos | 3.23.10 @ 9:54PM

We have 2010 and 2012 to reclaim our country at the ballot box.

We don't need any more faux Republicans and/or conservatives, either.

Nor can we allow any Democrat, liberal and/or leftist to get away with calling himself or herself a "centrist," "moderate," even "progressive."

Margie| 3.23.10 @ 10:21PM

I refer to those who call conservatives neo-cons as neo-con-artists.

If their definition of a neo-con is any conservative who isn't "pure," pure in who's eyes? Yes, in THEIR eyes. Well, for your eyes only neo-con-artists: there is no such thing as a pure conservative. Unless you have already died and gone to Heaven! Because according to my Bible, that's the only time we get to attain ultimate purity.
Usually, it's the Libertarians and Paleo-cons that use this neo-con term. They have their own special definitions of the pureness that you can only attain if you are "one of them."
All I know is that I love this country and consider myself a conservative. God will be my Judge!

Liberal Reader| 3.23.10 @ 10:28PM

Norquist is peddling what is pretty much common wisdom around DC these days.

Which is another way of saying he's holding his finger in the wind and taking a wild guess.

Most of the surmises in this piece seem reasonable, I suppose.

I for one doubt Democrats are going to suffer the apocalyptic defeats Republican prophets are now describing for us.

Political prognostication has all the merit of a newspaper astrology column. Two months ago half of the pundits in the country said health reform was dead.

Imagine forecasting six months ago that Kennedy's seat will soon be held by a Republican!

Cow Rie| 3.23.10 @ 11:16PM

Great column. But GN misses one thing.
Sure the Tea Parties helped. He says by 600K.

But notice how immigration reform will be slammed thru like health care. Thousands of immigrants will be let in, pardoned, asylumed, granted citizenship with health care benefits. A lot of stimulus money will turn up for these people. SEIU will enroll them also. Government jobs with full benefits will go to them. And you will pay for them, their offspring, and all their cousins. You will see certain districts with inflated voter rolls. ACORN and its spawn groups will organize these new "citizens".

And they will cancel out the Tea Parties......

People.... get ready to rumble. The War is On.

Gold BC| 3.24.10 @ 6:55AM

Significant differences exist between '94 and '10. In '94 Democrats faced the double whammy and it was more personal...Bill was the villain and Hillary the villainess. Bill’s retroactive tax increase rankled the middle class. HillaryCare failed demoralizing Democrats. The GOP in a rare occurrence of unity were better led, offered an alternative Congressional plan of action and succeeded in nationalizing the election. Scandals plagued the White House putting more pressure on Democrats. In ’10 ObamaCare passed muster and the Democrats are in much better political shape. Since W.’s disastrous second term Republicans divided along ideological lines with the recent Tea Party movement enhancing the division. The Republicans have no alternative plan Congressional or otherwise. Changing demographics also hinder Republicans today in contrast to ’94.

Derek Leaberry| 3.24.10 @ 9:04AM

Norquist is correct in noting how Hoover, Eisenhower and the Bushes left the Republicans much weaker at the end of their presidencies. And his points about Charlie Cook's analysis are fine to note. Cook is a moderate Louisiana Democrat but probably the best seat-by-seat analyzer in the nation. If Cook thinks the Republicans will capture the House, they probably will. Yet calling Mike Castle a moderate conservative is about as truthful as calling Tiger Woods a faithful husband.

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