Campaign Crawlers
Florida Bolero
The Rubio-Crist race is over -- but the August 24 primary is still a long and dreary, repetitive way off.
TAMPA -- It can't be much fun being Charlie Crist just now. He's having to watch his 18-year political career dissolve. And there doesn't seem to be a thing he can do about it.
Timing is everything, or at least the most important thing, in so many areas of life. And Charlie's political timing has been terrible. At least over the last three years. Thanks to some moderate and liberal stances Florida's governor has taken since 2007, and some ham-handed attempts to cover up those positions or re-invent them, Crist has established an NCAA record for giving up a lead.
After being up by 50 points last spring, Crist now trails conservative former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio by 30 points or more in a race for nomination for the U.S. Senate seat Mel Martinez resigned from last summer. Rubio, running on conservative themes and vigorous opposition to the Obama regime, came up so quickly it's a wonder he didn't get the bends.
Last spring Rubio was in single digits in what was almost universally seen as a quixotic race against a popular sitting governor. Beat Charlie Crist? No chance, no way, no how, the political experts said. But sometimes experts outrun their expertise. (A skeptic once explained that a sex expert is a guy who knows 154 positions but doesn't know any girls. I'm not sure what this has to do with Rubio and Crist, but I've been waiting years to work it into a column.)
In conservative-minded 2010, Florida independents are no longer enchanted with the expensive environmental schemes Crist has whooped up in the name of saving Florida from global warming. Nor are they keen on President Obama's $787 billion "stimulus" slush fund that Crist, almost alone among Republicans, supported before it was policy, and then tried to say he hadn't supported, and then defended, and then, hell, I forget what he did then. Trying to follow Crist's cutbacks, misdirections, reversals, head fakes, and re-inventions on this one could give a snake a back ache.
The governor is still sitting, but he's far from popular now. And much of the popularity he still enjoys is with Florida Democrats. Among conservative Florida Republicans, as measured by polls and by the 25 straw votes Republican organizations have held across the state, Crist is on course for the single-digits that were Rubio's lot a year ago. And it's just these conservative Republicans who vote in Republican primaries.
From the point of view of Rubio's conservative supporters, the worst thing about the primary is that it's five months away. August 24, to be exact. This gives the amply-financed Crist a long time to go negative on Rubio, which is all he has left. If this string is played out to the bitter end, both Republican candidates and all Floridians, except perhaps likely Democratic Senate candidate Kendrick Meek, will be sick to death of it before the voting takes place.
Primary day may be off in the gauzy future. The summer solstice and the baseball All-Star Game will be memories by then and we'll be in the heart of the Florida tropical storm season. But a good argument can be made that the primary election is really over now.
In a week's conversations with Republican political consultants, current and former Republican office-holders, business types active in Republican politics, and savvy academics (there are some -- really), I couldn't find a one of these worthies who could imagine a way Crist could turn around a campaign in which he has been consistently losing five to 10 points a month for a year. This hasn't been an up and down race -- it's been all up for Rubio and all down for Crist. The whole business has been as consistent and inexorable as Ravel's "Bolero," but not as much fun to listen to for Crist.
Not only has Rubio built an impressive lead, but the percentage of undecideds in most polls has shrunk to the 10 percent range. So Crist faces the double job of changing Rubio supporters back to undecided before they can be enlisted for Crist's team. Hard to see how he does this, as he's about the most well-known politician in the state. Republicans voters here know whether they like Charlie Crist or not. And this is his problem.
With his quirky, all-over-the-ideological-map record as governor, Florida Republicans just aren't convinced Crist is the conservative in this race. The mood this year among Republicans, and among an increasing number of independents, is to send a U.S. Senator to Washington to oppose the Obama administration and a leftist Democratic Congress, not someone likely to play footsie with them as Crist has. (Big government Republicans are so 2008.) Rubio's campaign, based on return to limited government, decreased public spending, less regulation, more dependence on markets over government bureaucrats, and vigorous defense of America's security interests, has been much more convincing.
So Crist won't be able to play the conservative card with Florida Republican voters. Nor can he whoop up his record of leadership as Florida's governor, as there isn't one. He's been a hands-off governor, often absent, who has put almost no stamp on Florida state policies during his time in the governor's mansion. In the areas he's made promises -- lowering property taxes and property insurance rates -- there's been little or no success.
The only thing left to Crist is to go negative, to try to paint Rubio as an unreliable no-good. He's trying that now, hamming it up about the fact that Rubio carried a Republican Party of Florida credit card while he, Rubio, was raising money from the state party and campaigning for Republicans. He's alleging that Rubio made personal purchases on this card, and also made personal use of money raised through two political committees Rubio formed to boost Republican candidates. Rubio says the money was spent was for the purposes it was collected for, and that he reimbursed any personal expenditures made on the party card.
This story will go on for awhile. But so far there's no evidence the charges have gained any traction among likely Republican voters. Rubio's poll numbers were higher after the first round of Crist's credit card accusations. It appears to this point that the political committees operated pretty much like other such committees, in both parties. No one who gave money to these committees has complained about how the money was used.
So while Crist's charges that Marco Rubio is some kind of credit card cheat will almost certainly not help Crist's chances of making it to the U.S. Senate, they delight Florida Democrats, eager to take up the cry. And the charges are catnip for the liberal media in Florida, always looking for another club to hit conservatives with. The McGovernite St. Petersburg Times has already published an editorial suggesting Rubio is some kind of a cross between Bernie Madoff and John Dillinger. The Palm Beach Post has piled on too.
Vague and baseless charges of financial hanky-panky not only have the potential to hurt Rubio in his general election campaign against Miami Congressman Meek (busy Sunday voting for Obamacare), but could hurt other Florida Republican candidates in November. Republican donors have already asked Crist to cool it, to stick with the issues and put away the mud.
No one should be surprised if before Crist and Rubio square off in debate next Sunday on Fox News Sunday, Republican leaders in Florida take the time to explain to Crist that if he wishes to have a political career beyond August, the last thing he wants to do is conduct a scorched earth campaign.
About the Author
Larry Thornberry is a writer in Tampa.
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Bram| 3.23.10 @ 7:33AM
Michael Steele are listening? Do something useful for once and have a talk with Charlie.
loulou| 3.23.10 @ 5:58PM
John McCain, are you listening??
JD Hayworth is gaining on him. McCain should do the honorable thing and retire. Please?
Melvin| 3.23.10 @ 7:47AM
With any luck the career politician will be the next endangered species.
It is one thing in being a career politician that sticks to principles, and core values, and another that swings around like a weather vane in the political winds.
There is various opinions in why politicians turn to the dark side, but I would imagine that politicians like Crist get so enraptured with themselves that they in a sense believe their own rhetoric.
I raise one hand into the air, the crowd cheers, I raise two fists into the air and the crowd goes berserk.
Politicians love the adulation of staffers, and supporters and of course the cheering.
Some politicians wade beyond this self-gratification and become great statesmen, but others make that left turn and say to themselves.
"They Love Me."
Tex| 3.23.10 @ 7:49AM
If you think Madoff ran a huge scam, Amway has ripped off millions of people for several decades, to the tune of 10s of billions of dollars.
Amway is a scam, and here's why: Amway pays out as little money as they can get away with, so they support the higher level IBOs ripping off their downline via the tool scam.
As a result, about 99% of IBOs operate at a net loss, while the top 1% make several TIMES more from their Amway tool scam than from the Amway products. This was made illegal in the UK in 2008, but our FTC is unable to pull their heads out of their butts to stop it here.
Read about it on my blog, I suggest you start here: http://thenetprofitgroup.yolasite.com and forward the information to everyone you know, so they don't get scammed.
Dan Hirsch| 3.23.10 @ 10:10AM
Whether Amway is a scam or not simply does not matter to the Florida Senate race, does it?
CAN'T SOMEBODY TAKE THAT POST DOWN?
GatorMom| 3.23.10 @ 9:32AM
Larry, how many campaigns have you worked on? A primary isn't over until the fat lady sings. There is so much that could go wrong in five months, that I am sure Rubio wishes it were August 24. And regarding Rubio and the credit card issue, any other person in the real world would have been fired for abusing a corporate credit card while increasing their personal purchasing power. Why shouldn't Rubio be held to the same standards as everyone else.? He isn't any different and his actions are just as bad as those of the executives at Lehman Brothers and Citibank. The people of Florida are hiring someone to represent them and if I called up the FL GOP for a reference and found out that Rubio had abused his corporate issued credit card, I wouldn't hire him. How could I trust him?
Ryan| 3.23.10 @ 9:46AM
How is Crist more trustworthy?
GatorMom| 3.23.10 @ 10:23AM
Ryan, I do not know of an instance where Crist has not been transparent with his finances or taxpayer money. You may not agree with his policies, but Crist didn't fail to report committee finances or abuse a financial trust that was placed with him. There are enough people in DC who can't ward off the temptations that come with political office and it seems to me if Rubio couldn't stop himself while holding an office that is significantly less powerful, how is he going to exercise self-control, oversight and responsibility at a higher office?
Heatpacker| 3.23.10 @ 11:02AM
Before leaping to conclusions about Rubio, you should ask yourself some basic questions.
What is the other side of the story?
What work was Rubio doing for the party?
Did the party make a good investment in Rubio?
Accepting, at face value, criticisms from prejudiced or partisan individuals is always a mistake.
GatorMom| 3.23.10 @ 11:17AM
I am definitely a conservative so yes I'm partisan, but I want my kids to know that I hold adults to the same degree, if not greater, of accountability that I hold them to. I'm not leaping to conclusions. He paid to fix his wife's minivan, boutght music equipment, had his hair done. And his communications guy or strategist Todd Harris (I think that's his name, apologies if I have it wrong), had plenty of opportunity to offer a statement of Rubio owning up to his conduct, but instead he tried to spin voters and didn't take responsibility for his actions. Again, DC has enough of that. Trying to make someone sound right when they were in the wrong is wrong.
Heatpacker| 3.23.10 @ 12:06PM
You didn't answer my questions. If you can find the time, please do so. Until you do, I will consider you a shill for Charlie Crist or, worse yet, a Democrat.
Bobm120742| 3.23.10 @ 1:03PM
You, lady, are not a conservative. YOU are a Democrat, or someone doing serious Crist Kool-aid drinking. I'm not looking for perfection, I'm looking for someone with solid conservative credentials. Rubio has that, Charlie 'whichever way the wind blow' Crist does not. I still can't get that hug of the socilaist Obama out of my mind. It was devastating to Crist, and it turned me. So quit posting, you're not fooling anybody
GatroMom| 3.23.10 @ 1:25PM
Bobm120742- It is my constitutional right to state my opinion. If you were a true Republican you would be open to free speech, not scared of it. The way Rubio tried to pawn off his indiscressions and not take responsibility for them sounded a lot like Obama during his SOTU address when he wouldn't take ownership for the financial mess we are in. With leadership the buck has to stop with the person at the top and i'm not looking for perfection either, just honesty and integrity.
Ryan| 3.23.10 @ 2:18PM
So how is Crist's back-and-forthing on his stimulus support "integrity?"
loulou| 3.23.10 @ 6:00PM
Yes, you have the right to state your opinion even if it exposes you as a shill for Crist. You're no conservative. Maybe you're working for ACORN--who knows?
GatorMom| 3.23.10 @ 7:16PM
Funny, I'm thinking there are no conservatives ont this board. Conservatives (real Reagan conservatives) generally have a good sense of right and wrong. We don't allow for the gray and try and sweep it under the rug. No one has said how or why Rubio is qualified or why we should dismiss what would get anyone else fired in the real world. This is why our politicians are the way they are. If you don't hold someone accountable, you get what you paid for.
JmsA| 3.24.10 @ 1:34AM
GatorMom,
You're more than entitled to vote for the Obama, stimulus-embracing rino in the primary; no one is stopping you.
JmsA| 3.24.10 @ 1:49AM
I guess it would be too much to expect the Miami Herald or The St. Petersburg Times, two bastions of conservatism, to do an expose on rino Crist as they did on conservative Rubio. Madam, you're not fooling me.
imsteph| 3.23.10 @ 9:36AM
Timing? Really?
How about the fact that he is just plain WRONG on all the major issues that face the people of Florida. He has taken a 'kingly' stance---remind you of anyone---and EVERYONE ELSE is WRONG.
He is reaping the fruits of his labors, and they are rotten.
So rotten are they-he is turning orange.
He-along with other RHINOS-can't be gone soon enough.
Republicans are re-educating themselves on their origins, what they originally stood for, and are finding out so many of their supposed leaders haven't a CLUE where it comes to knowing what the party stands for OR who they are suppose to represent.
They are there for themselves and their cronies.
Heatpacker| 3.23.10 @ 11:34AM
The Democrats know how to handle a situation like this. In the last ten years, on several occasions, a Democrat candidate who had no chance of winning his election was the recipient of Godfather-like meeting with someone like Bill Clinton, who 'made him an offer he couldn't refuse'. Remember a few years back in New Jersey, when Toricelli was forced to drop his Senate candidacy because he was doomed to lose?
Someone with clout needs to explain the facts of life to Gov. Crist: that he needs to start thinking about a life outside of politics. Then a way must be found for him to gracefully exit the scene. If he proceeds on his current path, he will destroy any good will that remains in the party and among its supporters.
Come on, Charlie! Time to cash in you chips and walk away from the table. If you lose your stake, you won't have the opportunity to play in the future, when your luck might be better.
GatorMom| 3.23.10 @ 12:16PM
Heatpacker, Now I think you're a shill for Rubio. Since his spokesperson never offered the other side of the coin we can only believe that Rubio was in the wrong. The FL GOP spokesperson said Rubio was in the wrong. Since I am not a short term inverstor but one that looks to the future for myself, my children and one day very very very very far off my grandchildren, I'm going to have to say that the FL GOP probably isn't going to get a great return with Rubio. How has Rubio proven himself? What has he done that qualifies him to get to be in charge of my tax dollars? This is my money that were talking about. It's your money. We as a group of voters need to start thinking, scrutinizing and holding our lawmakers to the highest degree of accountability or we are going to continue down this horrible path that we are on towards complete socialization.
Heatpacker| 3.23.10 @ 12:34PM
OK. I am going to ask one more time. What work was Rubio doing for the Florida GOP that necessitated him having a party charge card?
What did the Florida GOP get in return for his efforts?
And, by the way, this was not taxpayer money we are talking about here. Rubio spent money voluntarily donated to the party.
GatorMom| 3.23.10 @ 12:45PM
He was given a corporate credit card to use when he was doing official GOP work, i.e. fundraising for the Party. And I beg to differ, it may not have been taxpayer money, but it was the money of a taxpayer and just because it doesn't come along with the scrutiny of tax payer dollars, doesn't make it right. The Republican Party is beholden to its members and accountable to, and that doesn't seem to register with Rubio or Todd Harris. If you want to know what the FL GOP got in return for Rubio's efforts, you will have to ask them, but since they aren't jumping up to defend him, I don't think much.
Heatpacker| 3.23.10 @ 1:28PM
I see. You don't know how effective Rubio was and you don't care to find out. Very illuminating.
GatorMom| 3.23.10 @ 1:31PM
If the peeps you worked for won't come to your defense that is very telling. And that fact that you aren't bothered by the shadiness of the situation is very illuminating.
dittoheadadt| 3.23.10 @ 11:16PM
Ok, GatorMom, let's stipulate that you're right. That Rubio did whatever it is that you think is so awful. What next? What's your next move? What do you propose is the solution? Instead of repeatedly raising the specter (sorry...) of the problem, include a solution in your posts. Let's say Rubio did what you say he did. What's your solution?
JmsA| 3.24.10 @ 1:39AM
A classic holier than thou moment if I ever heard one. I wonder if there's actually something lurking here that has nothing to do with political finances. Oh, by the way, I'm not from Florida, although I have visited and have family there.
bbernard| 3.23.10 @ 12:59PM
Congressman Meek voted YES on Obamacare, ENOUGH SAID... We Will Remember in November!!!!!!!! Christ the RINO will not be going to the US Sentate. Um, by my calculation that means Senator Rubio. GO Rubio.
Howard| 3.23.10 @ 1:11PM
Rubio will be a great asset for conservatives. That assumes he keeps his zipper closed and his relationship with K Street distant. Meek would have been a great pre-Obama candidate, but, the white guilt factor is not as important. Survival is!!
GatorMom| 3.23.10 @ 1:27PM
I meant indiscretion; I'm admittedly a horrible speller.
1FreeMan| 3.23.10 @ 2:02PM
Hopefully this November will be a wake up for the Democrats who have at least a little honor remaining. For the RINO's, this will be their warning as well. Circumventing the Constitution should be political suicide. Yes, bbernard, Meek needs to pay a political price for his treason against the people of the United States. Hopefully his political career is over.
Tim| 3.23.10 @ 2:07PM
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in Pennsylvania shows Conservative Republican Pat Toomey leading Arlen Specter 49% to 40%.
Pingback| 3.23.10 @ 9:13PM
The American Spectator : Florida Bolero links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
PCP Smoker| 3.23.10 @ 9:23PM
Charlie has been and is done. The day socialist healthcare became law, the only image in my mind is that asshole Crist groping Obama. Fuck them both.
Relative to "a skeptic once explained that a sex expert is a guy who knows 154 positions but doesn't know any girls"
Would he have to know them? Could not prostitutes suffice? The line distracts from the point, but then, it's Charlie Crist we are talking about. A political whore.
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出会い| 7.21.11 @ 3:46AM
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