Campaign Crawlers
Crist Implodes
Dandy Don, call your office. This party is over -- in the third quarter.
TAMPA – "Turn out the lights, the party's over." Those are the words to the folksy song Dandy Don Meredith used to sing on Monday Night Football when it appeared the game on the field was decided. Of course this usually came late in the game, rarely, if ever, in the third quarter. But if a Public Policy Poll released Tuesday is to be believed, our Don may want to loosen up his voice a bit in the Florida Senate race, early or not.
According to North Carolina-based Public Policy Polling, conservative former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio leads moderate-to-liberal Florida Governor Charlie Crist by a stunning 60-28 in the race for the Republican nomination for the Senate seat Mel Martinez resigned from last summer. The primary is August 24.
This is a huge jump over Rubio's lead just a month ago which was, depending on which poll you believed, between three and 18 points. Public Policy Polling's director of policy polling Tom Jensen conceded that it's unusual for a race to get this kind of movement this far out, particularly as neither candidate is spending much of anything on media ads. But, he said, the current numbers reflect a continuation of the way the race has been heading.
"Crist has been bottoming out with conservatives," Jensen said. "He's been dropping about 10 points a month since last summer and early fall. If you're polling at 20 percent among conservatives in a Republican primary there's no way you can win."
At this rate, Crist will have negative support by the time of the primary.
Jensen says it's a matter of timing, and Crist's timing has been about as off as it could be. In 2007 and 2008, in the pre-recession days of Crist's early governorship, Crist sensed he could woo additional voters to his side by anguishing publicly about global warming and whooping up all manner of costly environmental schemes, including cap and trade and California-style fuel standards. In early 2009, when our rookie president was still popular, Crist attached himself to Obama and his policies. He went so far as to embrace both Obama and his $787 billion "stimulus" slush fund before it was adopted and while other Republicans were pushing more conservative approaches to the recession. He crooned incessantly about "bipartisanship."
In conservative 2010 these policies are toxic. There is, as Jensen put it, "incredible anger among Republican voters about this." And guess who, in Florida, is the recipient of most of that anger? While Crist was cozying up to Democrats, and frolicking with Democratic policies, Rubio was compiling a conservative record in the Florida House. Rubio has campaigned for the Senate nomination on conservative themes such as limited government, fiscal responsibility, personal freedom, and a strong foreign policy. As a result he has the credibility with Florida conservatives that Crist forfeited through his frivolous policies.
As recently as the spring and summer of 2009, Crist had a 30 point lead over Rubio and enjoyed high approval ratings for the job he was doing as governor. But this week's Public Policy poll tells a starkly different story.
In addition to the 60-28 advantage Rubio racks up among the 492 likely Republican primary voters Pubic Policy surveyed, Rubio holds a remarkable 71-17 lead among conservatives. Crist holds a 49-36 advantage with party moderates, but these folks make up less than a third of likely primary voters. Though it was not measured by this poll, Crist likely holds an advantage among liberal Florida Republicans, though no one knows if either of these folks plans to vote in the primary.
The poll finds that almost half, 41 percent, of Florida's likely Republican voters believe the party leadership is too liberal. Among this cohort Rubio enjoys an 83-10 lead. Fully half of the likely voters say Crist himself is too liberal. Rubio is the choice of 90 percent who see Crist this way. Crist picks up five percent with this crowd.
Not only are Republican voters not eager to have Charlie Crist representing them in the U.S. Senate, they aren't even keen anymore on the job Crist is doing as governor. Into last year, Governor Crist enjoyed approval ratings in the sixties and seventies from all voters. Now, according to Public Policy, only 29 percent of likely Republican voters approve of the job Crist is doing as governor while 56 percent disapprove. A majority, 56 percent, say they would like to see Charlie Crist out of public office altogether next year. How's that for wearing out your welcome quickly?
This means that all those political pundits writing pieces on how Crist might decide to bow out of the Senate race and run for re-election as governor will have to look elsewhere for an easy column. If he did this and the election was held this week, the current poll shows he would likely lose. Florida Attorney General and gubernatorial candidate Bill McCollum holds a 49 to 35 percent lead over Crist for this office.
But, not to worry pundits. PPP's survey shows Crist is more popular with Democrats now than he is with Republicans. So this may lead to a small bull market in columns suggesting Charlie Crist's political future may be as an independent or even a Democrat. It's becoming increasingly clear Crist has no future as a Republican.
PPP says its survey has a margin of error of +/-4.4 percent.
About the Author
Larry Thornberry is a writer in Tampa.
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Kenny | 3.10.10 @ 6:50AM
What RINOs like Crist don't underastand is that the paradigm has changed. Get-along, go-alone types will continually to get weeded out of the GOP.
Let's hope McCain goes down to JC Hayworth in the AZ primary. Juan us another RINO who has outlived his welcome in the GOP.
ggoblue| 3.10.10 @ 7:04AM
i'm with kenny on this...and i wonder if those who have endorsed rinos like crist and mccain haven't punched their own tickets to oblivion....one can only hope.
Deborah D| 3.10.10 @ 8:18AM
Crist hasn't helped himself by the snarky comments he's making about Rubio (getting his back waxed?) -- what a bizarre comment. He's got nothing to say about Rubio's fiscal conservatism, which is what Floridians (and most Americans) want from a good office seeker. Crist cast his lot with the devil, and now he's paying for it. Rightly so.
Copyleft| 3.10.10 @ 8:38AM
Crist needs to go, definitely... but because he's a loon, not because he's any kind of "moderate."
This is a guy who honestly believes he can protect Florida from hurricanes by writing letters to Jerusalem! Zealots of this sort have no place making important decisions that affect real people.
Richard Baker| 3.10.10 @ 9:43AM
Previous poster:
Incoherence is not an argument.
Copyleft| 3.10.10 @ 11:03AM
Oh, you hadn't heard abut Crist's insanity? It's funny stuff--if you're not a resident of Florida, that is.
http://www.tampabay.com/incomi.....em/1029820
http://www.cbn.com/cbnnews/us/.....cane-Free/
Craig| 3.10.10 @ 9:46AM
Crist's back-wax comment reminded me of Corzine's calling his opponent "fat". It was downright stupid and all too reminiscent of Massa's talking about tickling his aides and meeting Rahm Emmanuel naked in the shower. Voters won't be impressed.
Angry Taxpayer!!!| 3.10.10 @ 10:24AM
Really, don't be deceived by Rubio - take a moment and look at the pork he delivered to his district, his "special" mortgage, his unadvertised and part-time adjunct "teaching" position which paid him $69,000 to "teach" two classes, ahis blind eye to Ray Sansom's activities, and his lavish living on the GOP credit card (which he paid back from where - considering his finances - as the news became public).
He's a "good talker" but he isn't a conservative. He talks the talk but take the time to examine his "walk."
He
Ryan| 3.10.10 @ 10:57AM
Wow. A Crist supporter. It's like an endangered animal in a cage...
Christopher Holland| 3.10.10 @ 8:40PM
Put a piece of raw meat on a stick, poke it through the bars of his cage and feed him. Maybe that will keep him quiet.
Bruce| 3.10.10 @ 2:25PM
Got any cites for this trash - other than the Crist campaign (or what's left of it)?
Jim McClarin| 3.10.10 @ 7:20PM
I'm not sure whether you are a Crist supporter or a conservative but either way I suspect there's truth in what you say. Rubio was speaker of the Florida House after all, an unlikely position for someone to attain who is "pure as the wind-driven snow."
xcon| 3.11.10 @ 10:56AM
Nice smears.
Any real facts regarding Rubios' "misdeeds"???
No????
I thought so.
james| 3.10.10 @ 11:11AM
It's true that Rubio is hardly a saint. But down here in Fla it doesn't matter. Crist has been written off, and he could air video of Rubio doing bong hits with Van Jones and it wouldn't make a particle of difference.
Whether or not Rubio 'grows' in office once he gets to Washington remians to be seen. I don't think so, but once they get inside that force field up there ugly things happen.
David Jack Smith| 3.10.10 @ 11:40AM
I'm still waiting for those two exemplars of RINO punditocracy to deliver their DEEP THOUGHTS on the Obama supporting Crist.
Whither the two David@ Frum and Brookes. Surely they must have sage advice on how wrong it would be for the Republican party to nominate Rubio and ditch the "moderate" (sic) Crist.
How the GOP will be unelectable if it nominates losers like Rubio who appeal to no one, except Tea Partying extremists.
Come on guys. Pontificate on the pulse of the nation.
Bill| 3.10.10 @ 2:52PM
But, Charlie said Marco charges a back wax on the Republican party credit card! Boooo Hoooo Charlie. I guess this means he can't take issue with Marco's policies.
Pingback| 3.10.10 @ 3:33PM
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Laker| 3.10.10 @ 4:41PM
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Margie| 3.10.10 @ 8:09PM
"Crist Implodes." Oh, goody! I could say goody-goody gum drops but that would be too childish.
Cristian| 3.10.10 @ 8:12PM
Rubio will disintegrate, there is nothing there other than "conservative" hot air.
Support Crist, otherwise Florida will add another democrat to their Senate majority.
Pingback| 3.10.10 @ 8:43PM
Poteau Oklahoma Real Estate — Listed as One of the Top 100 American Cities to Live In links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
philfl63| 3.10.10 @ 8:49PM
Based on Crist's tendencies ( his recent female emotional outburst interview being the latest) and his sham marriage, he and Eric Massa should get together and have a tickle fight and then a warm shower afterwards.
Pingback| 3.10.10 @ 9:13PM
Game Debate: Japanese Video Games VS American Video Games! | Video Games Week links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Pingback| 3.11.10 @ 5:50AM
The American Spectator : Crist Implodes links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
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The American Spectator : Crist Implodes links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Pingback| 3.11.10 @ 5:53AM
The American Spectator : Crist Implodes links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Pingback| 3.11.10 @ 5:53AM
The American Spectator : Crist Implodes links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
John| 3.11.10 @ 10:54AM
He's going to switch to the democrats isn't he just like Uncle Arlen and will win handsomely........the undertone of anger, homophobia etc that characterises much of the anti Crist commentary is counterproductive.
bunky| 3.11.10 @ 11:01AM
How far behind Pat Toomey is Uncle Arlen?
Latest poll shows the duplicitous tard snarlin arlen down by 10.
Bye Bye
Mel Torme| 3.11.10 @ 12:31PM
"....the undertone of anger, homophobia etc ..."
So, what are you saying, John, both Specter and Crist are fags, too (along with being closet democrats)??
Maybe they should get on Glenn Beck and tell us their shower and Navy and Navy shower stories.
Inquiring minds want to know.
BA Cyclone| 3.11.10 @ 4:41PM
Crist ends the campaign and runs for the Democrat side of the ticket. Or better yet, endorse the Democrat!
Funny how "moderate Republicans" tend to follow this course of action. So then is it about the Republicans, or about themselves? I mean if this is even a play in your playbook, why on earth were you calling yourself a Republican?
Crist's petulance is starting to show already, and it's hard to believe he thinks that will help his electoral chances.
PCP Smoker| 3.11.10 @ 6:36PM
I enjoyed this article so much, I read it twice. It's not only that it's a well written piece, but the recent ascendancy of conservatism and the loud rejection of neo statists like McCain, Graham, David Brooks, David Frum, and Peggy Noonan, and their agenda --Big Government Conservatism-- provide a good background.
Allen| 3.11.10 @ 7:16PM
Give me the person who wants to close the borders and send all Illegals and their offspring home. That's the only conservative policy that matters by the time the Left has flooded us with millions of new dependent public wards and Democrap voters (I know, same thing).
for Senator Crist (D) Fla. | 3.12.10 @ 2:47PM
Ok, it's time for Crist to become a Democrat.
That way he will win the election by a landslide.
Rubio is a joke.