At Large
Two-Faced Moscow
Russian foreign policy is more schizoid than successful.
Back in the days of World War II the Soviets had one former foreign minister, Maxim Litvinov, and a current FM, Vyacheslav Molotov, to share the two-faced duties of chief foreign representative of the USSR. Litvinov would butter up the politicos in Washington and London while Molotov was Mr. Nyet in Moscow. Today, instead of the good cop/bad cop system, there is the current “man for all seasons,” Sergei Lavrov.
Lavrov’s style is an interesting and effective combination of smooth, reasoned manner along with an unbending fault-shifting technique that borders on bombast. His manner well reflects the present Medvedev/Putin foreign policy itself. This policy has at its core the residue of the old Soviet communist fear of NATO and American influence in European affairs.
Why Moscow should fear Washington’s role in European security matters is hard to understand when it is patently obvious that the Obama Administration is so little concerned with Europe. Yet this is the motivating factor behind the Russian desire to create what has been described as Dmitry Medvedev’s pan-European security treaty. If the implications of Mr. Lavrov’s behind-the-scenes comments can be credited, Moscow’s perception is that the United States is driving NATO toward building an offensive capability challenging Russia’s “natural” border of Eastern Europe all the way to and through Ukraine.
How the Kremlin could divine a conflict-avoiding Obama government to be supporting a NATO push eastward is explicable only if the Russian leadership seriously believes it needs a neo-Cold War propaganda line to offset its domestic fears of the future. The fears are legitimate even if the Moscow reaction is not. But even these legitimate fears do not justify the type of exaggerated response emanating from the Russian foreign and defense policy establishment.
It is true that there is a serious potential fall in the Russian population. It is true that the Russian economy has not grown in proportion to the country’s new and important role as an energy exporter. It is true that Islamic extremism threatens a large portion of Caucasian Russia. But such circumstances do not justify the dredging up of old attacks on the West’s “aggressive ambitions.” There is more reason to fear Iranian efforts to infiltrate and exploit the Moslem minority in Russia and the growing Chinese economic influence in Eastern Siberia than the imagined dangers of a U.S.-led NATO aiming to destabilize Russia.
As great as may be the temptation to dismiss Russian foreign policy mutterings by Sergei Lavrov as simply a replay of earlier Soviet international agitprop, it is important to recognize the Russian historical paranoia that goes back to the 19th century. There is an opportunity now for Russia to take great strides in just the areas about which its leaders most rant—strategic defense. But they have chosen to ignore the opportunity.
The program of U.S. anti-missile batteries placed in Poland with radar in the Czech Republic aimed at countering Iranian nuclear missile systems could have been used by Moscow to begin an entirely new defense alignment with Washington. Instead Putin chose to characterize these purely defensive weapons as carrying the potential of aggression against Russia. It was deemed more valuable to the Kremlin to revive fears of U.S. and NATO aggression than to accept the advantages of a mutual defense posture.
In the same manner the Lavrov/bad cop phase of Russian diplomatic schizophrenia has treated nuclear arms reduction with a far less welcoming attitude than it deserves. Of course this is all directed from the current Putin/Medvedev tandem leadership, but nonetheless the “bad cop” side of their foreign minister is once again the same very useful device it was seventy years ago under Vyacheslav Molotov.
This analogy holds true for other periods of contemporary Russian history. Khrushchev tried the Molotov demeanor with the young John F. Kennedy during their meeting in Vienna and then reversed himself the next year when he pulled the Soviet missiles out of Cuba. At present the Russian Foreign Ministry is working overtime to show its two faces at once on Iranian matters, simultaneously smiling in order to keep up Russia’s commercial relationship with Tehran, while showing toughness in support of threatened UN sanctions over Iranian nuclear weapon development.
Although this game of offering opposing characterizations of Russia to the world may strike Moscow as a clever way to protect its own ambitions, two-faced diplomacy doesn’t really work well in the globalized system in which we must all operate. Operational tacking aside, it’s very important for great countries like Russia to aspire to clear and consistent foreign policies. How else can the rest of the world, West and East, formulate its own consistent positions in return toward Russia. Sergei Lavrov, and any successor to him, must be allowed to bury the ghosts of Litvinov and Molotov.
About the Author
George H. Wittman writes a weekly column on international affairs for The American Spectator online. He was the founding chairman of the National Institute for Public Policy.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (54) | Leave a comment
Related Articles
More Articles by George H. Wittman
More Articles From At Large
http://spectator.org/archives/2010/03/05/two-faced-moscow
Follow us:
ADVERTISEMENT
SPONSORED LINKS
FLASHBACK TO: 1995
-
Pope Culture
A man of faith in a godless age is hitting Americans where it hurts.
-
Why the GOP Does Not, Like, Totally Suck
Mr. and Mrs. American Spectator Reader, let P.J. O’Rourke talk sense to your kids.
-
Dames at Sea
-
In the Absence of Guns
In Britain, defending your property can get you life.
-
The Metaphysical Martini
-
Counting the Costs of Clintonism
The debacle of this president’s administration is both a cause and a symptom of the decline of American values. Unless Congress impeaches him, that decline will go on unchecked. An eminent jurist surveys the damage and assesses the chances for the recovery of our culture.
-
Chuck McHagel
It won’t take long for conservatives to scratch this presidential wannabe off their 2008 scorecard.
-
The Legacy of Old John and Mother Fresh-Roasted
-
It’s the Best Time of the Year
The American Christmas, like the songs that celebrate it, makes room for everybody under the rainbow. Is that why so many people seem to be hostile to it?
-
The Bush Crack-Up
Was the President done in by the economy, or by the politics of the economy?
Clip of the Day
ADVERTISEMENT
Alan Brooks| 3.5.10 @ 10:15AM
IMO the Russians were right about the proposed missile defense, and were right to threaten the Poles. How can the russians be sure hostile parties to the West of them wont come to power someday?
If a global crisis were to bring an enemy of the Russians to power-- as happened in the '30s-- the Russians would be in a worse position with a missile defense system in the wrong hands to the West of them.
Christopher Holland| 3.6.10 @ 1:48AM
Right on, comrade! The progressive forces of the former Soviet Union must be ready for the day when they are invaded by chocolate soldiers from Brussels, cheese eating surrender monkeys from France, gutless bastards from Germany who hide under the bed at the first sign of trouble and English poofters and soccer holigans. We will never know when the legions from hell might finally march on Moscow.
Alan Brooks| 3.7.10 @ 1:46AM
Your optimism is BASELESS optimism, not conservative.
As a result of a severe world crisis, a hostile state or conglomeration of states in EASTERN Europe, or somewhere to the South of the Russians, might arise.
civilization is a veneer, and the Russians learned that the hard way. Russia is politically weak now, they cannot afford to let down their guard.
Social progress is finished, now we don't know what is going to happen; and neither do the Russians.
The world is up for grabs, and many will be killed, so the Russians understandably want the victims to be someone other than themselves. Perhaps no one ever told you this, but things change through catastrophe, Mussolini wasn't far off the mark when he said, "blood moves the wheels of history."
If I want baseless optimism, I'll go to Gingrich's site.
Tim| 3.5.10 @ 1:08PM
The only thing the Russians should be worried about is whether or not they will become as effete and feckless as the West Europeans.
Alan Brooks| 3.5.10 @ 3:34PM
Yeah, you say that safe in your home or office.
The defense establishment in Russia has to make decisions based on the geopolitical (and economic) hands they are dealt.
axbucxdu| 3.6.10 @ 11:53AM
I would hope that those defenders of the establishment are at least even handed with their machinations as they look to their right when examining Russia on a globe. They have a greater problem with their eastern border, where their demographic future is already upon them. But, as always, the focus on the west serves as convenient fodder for domestic consumption. The bear will never cease being the bear.
Alan Brooks| 3.7.10 @ 1:57AM
"They have a greater problem with their eastern border, where their demographic future is already upon them."
More is the pity. Doesn't look too good right now, does it? There is an apochryphal quote-- attributed to Trotsky:
"you might not be interested in war, but war is interested in you."
Too valid to have come from Trotsky. BTW, do you know what a crucial Soviet doctrine after WWII was? to make sure all subsequent wars would be fought off Soviet territory. Perhaps the Russians aren't good people-- but they are nobody's fools. You want peace? Go to a house of worship; you wont find peace anywhere else. And that is not a promise, it is a guarantee.
axbucxdu| 3.8.10 @ 1:32PM
"BTW, do you know what a crucial Soviet doctrine after WWII was? to make sure all subsequent wars would be fought off Soviet territory. "
More is the pity then that they are preoccupied with the likes of er, Poland, and not ChiIndia. Put that vaunted doctrine in the shredder.
"Perhaps the Russians aren't good people-- "
Judging from my wife and what I've experienced of her family excuse me if I think otherwise.
"...but they are nobody's fools. "
Their western prejudice is very foolish and will prove to be as militarily useful as the Maginot Line was to the French.
"You want peace? Go to a house of worship; you wont find peace anywhere else. And that is not a promise, it is a guarantee. "
I told you what I want: that they use their good cop/bad cop routine in Beijing as well as D.C.
Personally, I prefer that the bear be healthy. A weak Russia is in no one's best interest. Securing 12.5% of the globe's land mass with an aging population will require a dynamic economic system. They should focus on that. They're wasting their time flogging the west: that's also guaranteed.
basur | 10.27.10 @ 9:18AM
Nice post, congratulations
davelnaf| 3.5.10 @ 1:31PM
The leadership of some countries derive pleasure merely from manipulating the international system, apart from the financial benefit to them, and Russians are definitely overrepresented in this category. It tends to be their primary export.
Alan Brooks| 3.8.10 @ 1:05AM
Though I strongly believe Russia has to keep an open eye always cocked on its national security, the Russians are as you say gregarious people, but you can't say they are 'good' in Western terms. I have never been to Russia, but half of my family has, and Russia, like China, is not a democracy-- their government is smaller than ours', but they do not, as you know if you have been there, have the experience to become a democracy at this time. It has only been since 1991 that they have been "free". Eighteen and 1/2 years.
1000 years of Asian autocracy plus eighteen and 1/2 years of infant "democracy".
People don't realize it, but as Hitler was popular in Germany, Stalin was popular with large numbers of Russians-- he fed their Great Russian chauvinism. So Stalin was a product of the Russian people, not vice versa.
Northern Rebel| 3.5.10 @ 2:47PM
Alan Brooks is as reliable as the morning sun. You can count on him to defend socialism, and fascism, at any cost.
The poor Russians feel threatened by those dirty polacks!
Putin is not a former KGB murderer, he is a benevolent Grandpa, worried about his vulnerable Russian grandchildren.
Meanwhile the evil polish people are chomping at the bit to invade Russia, and re-name Stalingrad, Kielbasagrad!
You crack me up, Alan! ;o)
Alan Brooks| 3.6.10 @ 12:46AM
"Alan Brooks is as reliable as the morning sun. You can count on him to defend socialism, and fascism, at any cost."
When you write this... stuff... you are like the radio talk show dopes who merely mouth this sort of ... verbiage... to make the show a little more interesting for the dumb Joes out there.
But that is no excuse for you, Rebel-- because you are no dumb Joe,
you just write that way when you want to quickly type out some trash to score a cheap point.
Alan Brooks| 3.5.10 @ 3:42PM
I was in Eastern Europe once, and don't blame the Russians for not trusting Eastern Europeans. Why should Russia take Poland's word for anything?
You are the one who is naive. War is permanent, war will last as long as nationalism-- which is a hell of a long, long, long time.
But best you stew in your polyannishness, Mr. Rebel. It's your funeral.
Alan Brooks| 3.5.10 @ 3:44PM
... and now Rebel will go "
"Russia is..."
"Putin wants..."
"Medvedev thinks..."
Same shit...
Dustoff| 3.5.10 @ 5:13PM
AB
I was in Eastern Europe once, and don't blame the Russians for not trusting Eastern Europeans.
+++++++++++++++++++++++
Yeah they were so NICE to East Germany.
Alan Brooks| 3.6.10 @ 12:39AM
Literally incredible you would open such a can of worms,
Dustoff. Nothing the Russians could have done could have approached what the Germans did to the Russians 1941- '44. Stalin was worse than Hitler, but the Germans were worse as people; and today they are, well you can be an immigrant in Russia or America; but Germany today (like France) is a closed, as Tim wrote effete- feckless, society.
And Northern Rebel writes
"Alan Brooks is as reliable as the morning sun. You can count on him to defend socialism, and fascism, at any cost."
Translation: 'I, Northern Rebel, have other blogs to go to so I'll throw out words like fascism and socialism'
Fascist? more like mafiya-syndicalist--
bad but not fascist. And Russia is less socialist than we are!
C'mon, I kow you don't have time to think about Russia, but then please do not blog about russia as a matter of courtesy to them.
The Russians, be they far less sophisticated than the West, still have their national interest. Rebel, i know you are rightwing and that is basically what AS is about; yet you can't bandy words like fascist and socialist to no no true purpose (except to type) and be a serious blogger here.
Reb, think on what Truman Capote said re Jack Kerouac:
"that's not writing, that's typing."
Northern Rebel| 3.6.10 @ 12:50AM
When Genghis Khan, and his ilk swept through Europe on the way to England, They would blow into Poland, and kill every leader, and intellectual in the country.
But they never got past Poland.
They ran out of gas, and retreated, returning with their tales between their legs, until their next attempt.
Thanks to Poland, they never did reach France or England. Poland saved Western Europe's ass over, and over.
What is Russia's great contribution to modern society?
BTW: I'm not Polish, I'm of Scotch-Irish descent.
Northern Rebel| 3.6.10 @ 1:00AM
Don't get me wrong:
Being in manufacturing, I've become aquainted with countless Russian engineers, and I never met one I didn't like. They are a gregarious people, with a marvelous sense of humor, and they like to drink as much as I do.
I don't judge individuals by their ethnicity. But The Russians I did meet are unanimous when it comes to the leadership of their country, and it aint good.
Those are the people Mr. Liberal Reader apologizes for, and it's OK in this country to have an opinion, and prefer socialism to capitalism.
But that don't make it right, dude. My Russian friends would think Mr. Liberal Reader is highly misguided.
Alan Brooks| 3.8.10 @ 1:03AM
Though I strongly believe Russia has to keep an open eye always cocked on its national security, the Russians are as you say gregarious people, but you can't say they are 'good' in Western terms. I have never been to Russia, but half of my family has, and Russia, like China, is not a democracy-- their government is smaller than ours', but they do not, as you know if you have been there, have the experience to become a democracy at this time. It has only been since 1991 that they have been "free". Eighteen and 1/2 years.
1000 years of Asian autocracy plus eighteen and 1/2 years of infant "democracy".
People don't realize it, but as Hitler was popular in Germany, Stalin was popular with large numbers of Russians-- he fed their Great Russian chauvinism. So Stalin was a product of the Russian people, not vice versa.
Pingback| 3.6.10 @ 3:10AM
Store LowPrices : Skechers Women's Shape Ups-Motivation Fitness … | Women's Health Wi links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
buy sexy corsets | 3.6.10 @ 9:08AM
[b][ur]=http://www.yo2underwear.com]buy sexy corsets[/url][/b] are hot sale now,[b][ur]=http://www.yo2underwear.com/asian-style-tapestry-pink-corset-p-12.html]Asian Style Tapestry Pink Corset[/url][/b],only $47.89
Yosemeti Sam| 3.7.10 @ 10:50AM
Poor beset upon Ruskies.
LOL.
Where - oh where - is Alexander Nevsky when they need him.
BTW - catch the 1930s film. Cool.
rjjtr| 3.8.10 @ 7:04AM
What a new world! charity is with you!
ryry| 3.8.10 @ 7:04AM
charity is with you!
wangsir| 4.19.10 @ 2:39AM
Free download AVI to iPad, convert kinds of videos to iPad for playing.
guo | 7.1.10 @ 4:26AM
www.wmvconverterformac.com
mpeg4 converter mac| 10.17.10 @ 7:31AM
Compared with other softwares, the MPEG4 Converter Mac is so powerful and easy-to-use, You can free download it right now! FREE! NO SPYWARE! NO ADWARE!