The American Spectator : The Great Recession of 2011-2012

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The Great Recession of 2011-2012

By James Srodes from the February 2010 issue

And that’s only the beginning of a new Dark Age.

Are you ready for the Great Recession of 2011–2012? You should be, for it is getting under way even as you read this. Just as the 2009 “greatest economic crisis since the Great Depression” actually began back in 2007, so we are in the early days of the next cycle. Only this recession is going to be a doozy. And the aftershocks will be felt long after President Hillary Clinton leaves the White House in 2024.

The coming crisis should be no surprise, for we all have had plenty of advance warning. If it is a surprise, blame those chat-show economists who have become so politicized that they ignore the truths of their own science in order to acquire celebrity. Nor should we forget those politicians who deliberately suborn national interest for the security of zero-sum pork-barrel politicking. Combine it all with a news media largely made up of self-referential ignoramuses and it is small wonder that most of the world has been diverted as Dorothy was in Oz by the lightning bolts, explosions, and billowing smoke screen being generated by the men behind the curtain. The truth is our wizards dare not admit that the levers they pull are not really connected to the true crisis that confronts America or its place in the global market.

Despite the self-congratulatory assurances from the White House, Congress, and part of Wall Street that we have been saved from a slide into a 1930s depression, our most serious trials still lie ahead of us. We are unlikely to be able to get back to those halcyon days of perpetual prosperity and optimism that Americans (and most of the industrial world) enjoyed for the last 50 years. A tectonic shift is occurring beneath our feet and the world’s economic climate has shifted. We face not just a few abrasive years of getting back to normal, but a generational hard slog of constricted markets, limited resources, and rolling setbacks. And in each episode of crisis, some will prosper, the weak will suffer most, and radical visions propounded by political snake-oil salesmen of all persuasions will make rational discourse nearly impossible to conduct.

This is not to say that the Apocalypse is upon us, as morally satisfying as that might be to some. Nothing so dramatic is going to happen. The future offers no therapeutic collapse of civilization, with roaming bands prowling the rubble for Soylent Green. Folks will try to live just the way they have been but those lives will be more pinched, the opportunities more limited; caution and bitterness will replace the open-handed optimism that made it a wonder to be a 20th-century American, or even a Western European. If the stolid Swiss now quake at the sight of a minaret in Zurich, it is just one of the many new worries for all of us to fret over in the years to come. Civil privileges now considered “rights” will be up for renegotiation.

One has to feel a twinge of sympathy for the people who have chosen careers of service in government—not just in Washington but in all the capitals of the industrial West. Life just is not going to be as uplifting as it once was back when policy innovations were both credible and idealistic. But it must be especially hard for the crowd of wizards in Washington these days. Building consensus is hard when no one will talk to anyone else. Little wonder then that so much of the dramatic rescue being claimed by the White House in reality turns out to be merely putting rouge on the patient’s cheeks and exclaiming how well the poor soul looks.

Underscoring the difficulty in charting a new economic course is the truth that the government’s own statistics have become so distorted by age and the dynamics of change that they really don’t reflect the depth of the crisis that is upon us. So the wizards continue to twiddle the levers of stimulus and regulatory rules changes without realizing that the dials and barometers have long ago broken connection with what is going on. Houston, we have a problem.

CONSIDER JUST A FEW of the economic bellwethers one hears about on the evening news as proof that the crisis has been stabilized and recovery is imminent. Stock prices are up, true. But trading volume is way down and that is because retail investors—citizens making real investment choices— are on the sidelines. The price rises that swell the Dow Jones Industrial and other indices reflect almost pure speculation by Wall Street’s investment houses that are soggy with Washington’s cash injections. Just as Cash for Clunkers inflated Detroit’s hopes last summer, so the share price recovery is more of a sign of a new bubble inflating than it is of real value returning to share market prices.

The same for housing prices, only more so. It was headline news recently that house prices in “some” areas of the country had stopped declining quite as fast, while in some fewer areas there were even tiny increases in prices of houses sold, if not much increase in the volume. Yet there are uncounted hundreds of thousands of vacant houses, condominiums, and commercial office space for which there is no rational prospect of a buyer during 2010 or perhaps ever.

It will get worse. Of the 47.4 million home mortgages in place today, nearly 10.7 million are “underwater,” that is, the money owed on the loan is greater than the value of the house. And that’s not counting the 2.3 million other mortgages that are “near-negative equity.” Most of these latter will face sharply higher upward ratcheting of their interest rates in 2010 and 2011 and that will automatically plunge those debts below the surface.

In Nevada already the amount of mortgages outstanding is estimated at $132.6 billion against property worth $116.7 billion, a loan-to-value ratio of 116 percent. Even another slight decline in prices in areas such as California (loan-to-value ratio of 72 percent), Arizona (91 percent), or Florida (87 percent) will swamp Washington’s promised next round of mortgage subsidy relief. The government’s own rescue agencies, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and FHA, are dead in the water, and the government’s bank deposit insurance agency, the FDIC, says it has no more reserves to offset the coming next round of failing banks.

EVEN WHEN WASHINGTON ADMITS to a worrying 10-plus percent unemployment rate the real numbers are so far from reality as to be laughable. The recent headlined dip in the jobless rate turns out to have been caused by more than 50,000 already jobless people simply giving up and dropping out of the workforce. This has the statistically absurd result that the percentage of people deemed to be unsuccessfully seeking work is judged to have improved. When labor data is closely parsed for the measure known as “U-6,” which includes people forced to work part-time, those “discouraged” from seeking jobs, and those “marginally attached,” the rate trends above 17 percent.

But even that fails to accurately gauge the cold reality of the hopelessness facing folks at either end of the workforce demographic—the very young (where unemployment is trending above 60 percent) and those 55 and older who are forced back into job quests because their nest eggs vanished in the storm. Two-thirds of the job losses across the country have happened to the very blue-collar workers the Democratic Party has claimed for its own. For those Americans who still have hourly-wage jobs, their employment week would be the envy of a Frenchman—33 hours, on average. Sectors such as manufacturing, construction, and even retailing continue to shed workers; the only consistent gains over the last two years have been, no surprise, in government employment.

The policy response of all Western governments is to follow the failed Japanese model of trying to inflate one’s way out of a downdraft, pumping up another bubble. The theory is that if interest rates are forced low enough, and the money supply increased enough, and the government ramps up deficit spending to redistribute more wealth from the supposed rich to the supposed poor, a “multiplier effect” of economic growth will be sparked by consumers buying more, businesses investing more, and more jobs being created with prosperity spreading and growing. But if interest rates are already at zero, and the value of the dollar has been halved by doubling the supply of it, and the debt service burden of government spending is already suffocating the capital markets, how can one expect consumers to buy more (to buy more of what?), or businesses to invest more (for a new machine to do what?), much less to hire old workers back when the jobs they used to have are vanished, not to some Third World haven, but just vanished?

No one in Washington can say with a straight face just what the U.S. gross domestic product is except that we have been pushed back at least a decade and will probably be more than a decade in just getting back to where we were in 2006 (when GDP rose by an anemic 2.7 percent) just before the bubble burst the next year. Meanwhile new bubbles are forming all around us, in the commodity markets, in Hong Kong real estate, in the troubling data coming out of China and other Asian economies, all just waiting to buckle. Can you say Dubai? Greece?

FURTHER CONFUSING ANY ATTEMPT at a rational public analysis of the current crisis are the prevailing lies that the fault for the crisis lies in the failed economic theories propounded by the late Ronald Reagan and, more, that what we need is to return to the sound prescriptions of the even later John Maynard Keynes. Reagan, this slander says, set the financial markets off on an orgy of speculation and risk-taking by taking off the restraints of sound government regulation and by insisting on deficitbusting tax cuts. By returning to the true religion that Keynes revealed to Franklin D. Roosevelt in a dream, government, and only government, can return us to prosperity by even grander deficit spending coupled with a massive expansion of liquidity and the lowest interest rates possible. If that sounds confusing, it should; neither man prescribed any such thing.

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About the Author

James Srodes, an author and broadcaster, is a former Washington bureau chief for Forbes and Financial Worldmagazines. His latest book, On Dupont Circle: Franklin and Eleanor Roosevelt and the Progressives Who Shaped Our World, is being published next week. His email address is srodesnews@msn.com.

Letter to the Editor View all comments (308) | Leave a comment Leave a comment

val kraljic| 2.23.10 @ 7:09AM

Wow. That was positive!

Alan Brooks| 2.23.10 @ 7:55PM

"radical visions propounded by political snake-oil salesmen of all persuasions will make rational discourse nearly impossible to conduct. "

Will?

frank| 2.24.10 @ 4:47AM

2012? A few days ago I watched the film 2012
I think 2012 will be true

http://www.udtek.com/laptop-ac-adapter-c-2.html

Alan Brooks| 2.25.10 @ 6:07PM

Have you read 'The Sovereign Individual'? We'd need a paradigm shift that would make Buckminster Fuller seem like Leona Helmsley.

Writing "we'll end up with faith-based health care" isn't half joking-- it is 1/4.

Alan Brooks| 2.25.10 @ 6:09PM

'a paradigm shift that would make Buckminster Fuller seem like Leona Helmsley.'

Or vice versa

Russell| 2.26.10 @ 8:33PM

Really? Do Tell

Ted| 2.26.10 @ 12:43PM

what ever happened to supporting a thesis with an argument? Or perhaps, when you lack any proof...

Al Bundy| 3.29.10 @ 2:09PM

BUT, Reagan DID in fact do untold damage as did the other 'Bought & Owned' trio of Fed Reserve buddies, Bush and OB.

No amount of filtering will protect the gang who caused the 1929 debacle, the Nixon era economics of 'deficit-spending' which Nixon himself praised as practical>

Then, came the Reagan economics which set into motion another mortgage crisis...and of course the GOP could not stop there so they finished it off with Bush and family, now the dems are competing for the spot as deficit Kings.

AND sorry to mention, but, FDR??? Did resurrect America, hands down. Sorry bout those facts...

Chris| 1.30.11 @ 6:45PM

Yes, Reagan and all the others catered solely to the interests of those with surplus financial resources.

bjd| 2.23.10 @ 7:12AM

Ya know, if there is any truth in all these numbers, then it's starting to seem like 'a double-dip great recession' is really word weasling around or away from stating the economic picture as worse than the period of the great depression; the PRC's powerful loop-hole of not yet letting it's currency fluctuate freely according to their economy's performance is forcing other economies to hold their breath & even while 'the west' might have to come to terms with being as 'poor' as African economies if it did, that has to be a systemic bottle-neck for a free market system; 'America' hasn't yet begun to deal with its economic lion, it's financial services sector, that's a systemic issue of mythical proportions isn't it, they ought to create HCR with a strong public OPTION as a bottoming out foundation and start again from there...

Kitty| 2.23.10 @ 7:39AM

Spending -- living within our means -- has always been the problem.

I don't know why, but I was shocked when I read this morning that newly elected Sen. Scott Brown helped the Democrats to advance a jobs bill. It was a "procedural hurdle"; the final vote comes later this week.

And then I read this: '"I hope my vote today is a strong step toward restoring bipartisanship in Washington," he said in a statement.'

We better hope it's just a recession and nothing worse.
...

PJ| 2.23.10 @ 8:17AM

Did you really expect any republican from Taxachusetts to be anything like deMint or Coburn or Ryan? The point that he would vote against the then-current, senate health bill is a BIG step forward for that state.

Personally, I don't trust Romney either; but then he's only 1st generation there. Maybe he didn't drink enough of the socialist waters in that once fine Yankee state.

Smitty| 2.24.10 @ 3:29AM

Oh, Romney, creator of RomneyCare, drank the socialist waters alright--in fact, he drained the bath tub.

Dave In Houston| 2.23.10 @ 9:54AM

What is it going to take to get Republicans off of this stupid, ruinous for the country bipartisan kick? This jobs bill is a loser. It will create no jobs.

It is good to have strong point of view and articulate consistently and passionately. Scott Brown fails here and he should be held accountable for it. Bipartisan is just another name for going along and buying votes. You know, acting like Democrat.

If Palin, the optimistic "dunce" of the Republican can figure this out, why can't the smarter elements of the Republican Party learn this?

D.L. Moody| 2.26.10 @ 11:55AM

It is apparent you are a Democrat, blaming Republicans. Clinton if you haven't noticed is the one who's admin. changed the rules with fannie may and freddy, and you probably praised him for his financial genius. Now you reap what you sow and blame the Rep. party. Yesterday I saw McCain try to tell Obama what is the cause of things going wrong, and Obama replied "John the campaign is over". You can't correct someone who blindly refuses to face the facts. Like the Bible says "rebuke a fool and he will hate you for it." Lets see how you respond? The time for blame is past. Nobody ever fixed anything by blaming anybody. We need to accurately see what got us into this mess and fix it. Like bring our jobs home from China, Tiawan and Korea, that is where our jobs went. And guess who helped this problem out, your crook of a hero who sold our tech to the Chinese for donations to support his campaign, and it wasn't Bush. Come on now lets get real, if it is possible?

Lindsey| 2.26.10 @ 1:54PM

D.L. Moody- what Bible verse are you quoting? I like it! And you are exactly right about Obama and McCain. It is a shame that we don't have a great American in the White House like McCain with the courage to tell it like it is! Even Jimmy Carter told the American people like it was in his malaise speech! Your comments are spot on!

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Becky| 2.23.10 @ 7:56AM

Good food for thought. It does seem we are living in another simulacrum.

Melvin| 2.23.10 @ 7:58AM

Mr. Strodes pretty much summed it up didn't he. This type of language is typically foreign to the rank and file.
But something still is unexplained. Since the Great Depression the government and to a varying lesser degree Wall Street put into place oversight and safeguards to prevent exactly what is happening.
"The oversight and safeguards were either overlooked over intentionally broken to the point of criminality from the various financial schemes that brought this mess about.
The only person that I am aware of actually going to prison for his financial crimes is Berny Madoff and I have heard through various web sites of various minor financial schemers being indicted.
Government promised us since the Great Depression that a financial collapse on a biblical scale would all be next to impossible because of the various levels of protection.
But we see Chis Dodd getting sweet heart loans from Country Wide to look the other way and to grease the skids legislatively and keep the government watch dogs at bay.
Barny Frank through the power of his office has so twisted the financial markets that the financial collapse was all but set into stone.
Nancy Pelosi, made sure her and her husbands financial interests were very well taken care of with various types of legislation that she had passed most notably the mininum wage increase that she inserted a special provision that somehow exempted American Samoans from
receiving it, because her and her husband hold vast sums of stock in companies that American Samoans process seafood there.
Diane Fienstein steps down from her chairwoman ship because she was steering government
contracts to her and her husband's company.
No investigations, no Senator or Congressmen being frog marched in handcuffs for corruption.
To sum this all up I suppose that government and those in Wall Street colluded, connived, contrived into the greatest theft of American financial wealth in the history of our Country. The Great Bank Robbery if you will.
People! this Country's money was stolen and no one is going to jail, doesn't that seem odd?

I B Wright | 2.23.10 @ 8:01AM

What's wrong with your article, sir, is that you are under the impression that lying, weaseling, nothingness coming from washington has nothing to do with morals, as you stated. We just need men of stature, which you think has nothing to do with morals.

Hard to figure your type out.

JP| 2.23.10 @ 8:07AM

I think the authors hit many salient points -both political and economic. One thiing I think they missed is the coming demographic crisis. And I am not speaking of only the US (which, compared to other G-20 nations is still in fair shape). The dearth of children is not just a social and moral calamity, but also an economic one. And what makes it so is the simple fact that most of the G-20 nations have huge entitlement states that require large generational wealth redistributions. It is no surprise that Greece, Italy, and Spain are bodering on economic collapse. They have some of the worlds lowest fertility rates (approaching 1.2 children/female). They also have very large safety nets, which require huge transfers of wealth. In the past there was always a sizable working class to pay for unemployment, health care, and state mandated pensions. But no more. Unemployment in those nations has reached a critical mass at a time when there are fewer workers who have the income to support the state. But, Germany, France, the UK, Scandanavia, Russia, Holland, and the Benelux also have inverted economies, very low birth rates, and an ever ravenous state treasury. The only people who have children in any numbers in Europe are the Muslim minorities. And they have niether the incomes or education to back fill the labor pool.

Japan and China are no better off. In Japan the dearth of children is so bad that medical students now do not study Obstetrics. Why should they? On the Japanese island of Okinawa, the last OB departed almost a decade ago -and Okinawa has a population of over 250,000. In China, compulsory one child laws for the last 30 years has again inverted the demographics. There are over 300 million "baby boomers" who will be approaching 55 soon with a generation behind them less than half thier size. The US has maintained a native birth rate between 1.8 and 2.1 children for 30 years. We've depended upon illegals and legal immigration to make up the short falls. Yet, our entitlement spending has surged in recent decades (less than $800 billion in 1980 to now almost $4 trillion in 2010).

The majority of the G-2o's wealth is tied to people approaching retirement age (real estate, stocks, bonds, private pensions, etc...). Given the generosity of the state mandated pensions and health care, the vast majority of this wealth will be spent caring for thses people; however, what will be left for the younger generations? In order to make up the shortfalls, maintain standards of living, pay for education, etc... these wealthy nations must grow thier economies -and we're not talking about 2% that is needed, but annual growth rates of 4% or better. But for growth, an economy needs people. The future will see far less consumers and producers with the income to sustain standards of living and transfer large amounts of wealth to the older generations.

The truth is clear. This cannot be accomplished. Not in the short run. There are just too many obligations, and too few younger people with the education and drive to create wealth on a large scale. And our lawmakers in both parties haven't a cluse what to do. The period 1983-2005 will be seen as a Golden Age.

Bob Burns| 2.26.10 @ 11:55AM

"The period 1983-2005 will be seen as a Golden Age. "

Now that's funny right there.

Jim Barlucci| 2.26.10 @ 8:59PM

How about 1929-1940 will be seen as a Golden Age. Now that's downright hilarious.

LarryK| 2.23.10 @ 8:10AM

Wow....this is borderline insane, ill-informed at times (the statement that wage earners have probably lost 2/3 of their purchasing power since the 70s is possibly the stupidest thing I've seen in print in my lifetime), and one-sided at others.

I agree there will be some tough times ahead, but they will be temporary, for two main reasons. One: technology continues to amaze and lead to extraordinary gains in productivity. This trend (which diminishes the relative demand for raw materials, in addition to improving living standards) is also accelerating, not slowing down. Two: the policies needed to fix our overspending are eminently doable, and we're beginning to see the political will develop to address these problems.

There will be some tough sledding in the next few years, but predictions of multi-generational doom aren't worth the pixels they're printed on.

tatosian| 2.23.10 @ 1:51PM

One - What sorts of technology and extraordinary gains in productivity are you referring to, exactly?

And how have these technologies (and the subsequent "gain in productivity") improved my standard of living when the prices of everything, from a gallon of a gas to a gallon of milk are on the rise? Does the standard of living rise along with the cost of living? And if that's the case, what are the Greeks and the Zimbabweans whining about?

Two - The policies needed to fix these problems are indeed doable, but I don't believe these doable deeds will get done because beltway starlets (and the current crop of wannabes) are exhibiting election cycle "political will". Can you say Scott Brown?

When we elect whatever it is we elect and send it to DC, we have, in a sense, waved a magic wand over it's head and turned it into a fairy prince or princess whose every wish can be realized. Thanks to taxpayer dollars. Wanna take your pet monkey to Copenhagen so it can throw feces at the porter? Absolutely. Wanna put your son (struggling with his sexual identity in bus station bathrooms across your home state) on a taxpayer funded fact finding mission to Tijuana? Si se puede amigo. And so on...

Political will my behind.

JoshInHB| 2.24.10 @ 10:51PM

the statement that wage earners have probably lost 2/3 of their purchasing power since the 70s is possibly the stupidest thing I've seen in print in my lifetime

In the 50s, 60s and 70s it was common for "average" americans with only a high school education to get a manufacturing job, get married,
buy a house and start a family all in their 20s.

Now adays "elite" college educated kids in their late 20s live with their parents while working as a barrista at Starbucks.

2/3 decline in earning power may be an understatement.

Consultant| 2.26.10 @ 11:01AM

The other thing, in the 70's you could buy a really nice well built new car for around $3000. Gas was fifty cents. We manufactured things here, actual things people use and need, Now people buy, sell and flip the same useless paper back and forth and call that productivity. Having lived through it, I think 2/3 is generous also. This generation will have it way worse than their parents. High School graduates now will be lucky to get on at Wal-Mart. I was at a video store the other day, it is going out of business. The guy working there said he had a degree in computer science, couldn't get a good job and had settled for working at the video store to get by. Now that is gone as well. Even higher education is no guarantee of a job now. Even higher education in high tech is no guarantee of a job. I think things are going to very hard, the likes of which we have never seen in this country. This administration was the polar opposite of what was needed. We needed tax cuts and spending cuts. So really McCain wasn't what we needed either. Actually, we never had a chance. We were already on a bobsled going downhill fast and this administration moved us into a snowmobile, still pointed downhill, except now at blazing speeds. Grab your backside with both hands, I am afraid.

skeptic| 2.26.10 @ 7:59PM

Anybody see the movie "The Happening?" A dreadful sci-fi thing about how all the plants rebel and produce toxins to kill their natural enemy, man. The salient point is stated no less than three times with the same awkward language: "it was an act of nature, we may never fully understand it." This article reads like the same bad script. "No lift from 'easy oil' (at $100 / bbl) indeed, compared to $5 in the fifties. I'll leave with just two points: That $5 (inflation adjusted $2.75 with a $.55 ) in the 1950s compares to $3 (inflation adjusted with a $.03 dollar) today. Look at the chart: http://www.swissamerica.com/ar.....31220f.txt Furthermore the USA sits on at least a trillion bbls of oil which the usual suspects will prevent from being developed. Consider Bakken, Gull island, and the North slope. Counterfeit currency and RICO-ized institutions got us into this mess. If we do not ACT to overturn it, we'll one day face a single worldwide currency run by the same RICO, telling each other that "it was inevitable, we may never fully understand it."

John Hendricks| 2.27.10 @ 7:40AM

I hope you're right, but I don't think so. The problem is that the very foundation of our society is gone. There will be no recovery within my lifetime. Of that I have no doubt.

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Copyleft| 2.23.10 @ 8:39AM

While perhaps overstating his case a bit, the author is correct that this general downward trend of America's economy will continue as long as Washington primarily does favors for Wall Street at the expense of Main Street.

I do note that he glossed over Keynes' proposed solution once tax cuts have (predictably) failed and interests rates have already bottomed out.. public works programs. People need jobs, and much of America's infrastructure badly needs maintenance, repair, or outright replacement... why on earth don't we have a federal jobs program, rather than these indirect "stimulus" bailouts, loaded with pork and targeted at the malefactors of great wealth who CAUSED this meltdown in the first place?

The answer, sadly, is obvious; Congress works for corporate interests now, not for America and Americans. And with the recent SC ruling awarding corporations the power to buy elections outright, that trend seems unlikely to reverse itself any time soon.

Ryan| 2.23.10 @ 11:23AM

What tax cuts failed and how?

Was it a result of "failed tax cuts" or government overspending?

jd| 2.23.10 @ 5:13PM

I'll second the question, what tax cuts FAILED? And be specific.

Smitty| 2.24.10 @ 3:32AM

The troll can't answer your questions--he's merely here for a leftist drive by shooting off at the mouth.

Copyleft| 2.24.10 @ 1:14PM

Need the facts? You can get started here:

http://www.time.com/time/magaz.....27,00.html

http://www.cbpp.org/cms/?fa=view&id=507

Tax cuts CAN have a mild stimulus effect during a recession... but it's a weak and poor tool when more effective options are available. Lowering interests rates is out, since they're already at or near zero; that leaves domestic spending, a proven success.

JoshInHB| 2.24.10 @ 11:03PM

Government spending won't cure the current depression any more than it cured the 30s Great Depression, which is not at all.

Both depressions were caused by credit bubbles popping. And exasperated by government policy trying to mitigate and defer the necessary clearing to a lower price level.

This depression will not end until the debt that was accumulated in the bubble has been disposed.

Tenn Slim| 2.23.10 @ 8:54AM

Opine
From the point of view of retired folks. I am basically hunkering down. We will survive. We will prevail. OBNA is NOT in charge, we are.
True enough, all of what the article says, we just DO NOT WANT TO READ IT.
end
Semper Fi

Melivn| 2.23.10 @ 9:09AM

Slim it appears that we don't have too many options in this case. But a Gunnery Sergeant once told me. "We don't have to train to be miserable, we already know how to do that."
I know I am probably beating a dead horse here, but damn we shouldn't have to be putting ourselves and our kids through this misery.

Shamus| 2.23.10 @ 9:13AM

This is too pessimistic. Our big problems are all created by government, and we still have a chance to make constructive changes. We could fail to do anything and face a huge collapse, but this is hardly certain.

lawrence| 2.26.10 @ 10:10PM

There is no political will and things are far worse than indicated in this article. The ponzi fiat money system is collapsing and the middle class has been systematically destroyed. Europeans and Asians, more familiar with financial collapses, are buying gold but it will be too late when the average American understands the situation and tries to protect him/her self.

owyheewine| 2.23.10 @ 9:32AM

When I rread this in the mag, I was struck with the lack of faith in the ingenuity of the American people. We do have a need to de-Carterize the government, but that revolution is coming. It would be better to read and believe Brian Wesbury.

John Hendricks| 2.27.10 @ 7:49AM

The ingenuity of the American people? What are you talking about? That may have been true 40 or 50 years ago, but not today. Americans are so busy waving the flag they have no idea what has happened to this country. As of 3 years ago, for example, our education system was ranked 65th in the world. Just try to name 65 countries. We are much closer to the bottom of the heap than to the top. Americans are delusional, and that is a big part of the problem.

John Hendricks| 2.27.10 @ 8:29AM

I was born in the 40's and have observed the American scene for the past fifty years. Beginning in the 70's and thru the 80's, Americans adopted "positive thinking." If it wasn't positive, they didn't want to hear it. From the 90's thru today, most Americans believe "it ain't so until I say it's so. That's my story and I'm sticking to it." A nation of people who will not accept reality is not a good starting point for a "recovery."

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…should steer clear of refund anticipation loans while preparing 2009 tax returns. Some tax-preparation firms offer the loans as a way to get money quickly. Tax filers get a cash The Great Recession of 2011-2012 – Spectator.org The coming crisis should be no surprise, for we all have had plenty of advance warning. If it is a surprise speculation by Wall Street’s investment houses that are soggy with…

Majito| 2.23.10 @ 9:55AM

Well good...maybe once this plastic economy will be halted once and for all and the age of Gecko (greed is good) will be done and buried. Maybe once we're back to dirt huts in open spaces, we as a nation, will find our soul again and being pulling together as one instead of the actual insanity. That we have politicians in DC with over 10, 20 and upwards of 50 years in there complaining about how things are shows our stupidity. These whores should have been fired eons ago but not, we like the local pork and as long as we get the federal bacon we sent the prostitute back to DC over and over again. I look forward to the day when the dollar is nothing more than worthless paper so the arrogance of the culture comes to a humbling halt. And that will be good therapy for the country. For one thing, all those leeches that came into this nation chasing dollars will leave and only the true american patriots will remain to rebuild better, stronger and hopefully wiser.

Blackwatch| 2.23.10 @ 12:04PM

The Congressional Retirement plan should be ended today. All the retired legislators and their spouses should be dumped into the insolvent social security system immediately. They created the mess--they should have to live with their craven system.

No more handouts for Congressional spouses for their lifetimes. We don't have the money.

Stan Redmond| 2.23.10 @ 12:43PM

Greed IS good. More good has been accomplished by greedy people than any government program. Greedy Bill Gates provides thousands of jobs. WalMart greed provides thousands of jobs and low cost goods people want. Greedy Pharmacuetical companies create life saving medicines. My personal greed provides me a comfortable lifestyle.

Bill Hussein O'Stalin| 2.23.10 @ 10:02AM

I do not agree that our resources are limited. America alone has many resources.

The author skirts the issue of the real problem when he notes that we must look at public policies as a net-energy network, looking for efficiency in our government policies.

Unfortunately, we haven't had the efficiency. The Tea Party formation has recognized that government itself is fraught with waste which always leads to further inefficiencies.

It isn't a question of resources, it's the aspect of corruption which exists in the execution of almost every government theater of operation.

A perfect example of simple corruption is skirted by the author. Mr. Strodes mentions the Sherman Anti-Trust Act, but does not follow it up by pointing out the duplicity of a government who is a monopoly holding reign over all alleged monopolies.

This is but one example of how the government interferes in free markets, actually creating the shortages of which the author contemplates.

What we have a shortage of is too few leaders who believe in the individual, relying instead on plutocracies to solve every problem, while creating bigger problems in the offing.

Roy| 2.24.10 @ 1:34AM

Yeah, that "net energy" thing was overly cute bizarrehood. The market already determines whether a coal mine is a net gain or net loss to the economy; it's called "is the coal company profitable?" If it has to be subsidized, the question has already been answered.

Overall this article made some good points, and I am not equipped to question some of the statistics used. But statements like that(and we're "running out of air"? really? what's the market price of a cubic foot of air these days?) make me think the author is basically a crank.

JoshInHB| 2.24.10 @ 11:11PM

Except that we don't have a free market in the US.
We have a government mediated market.
The costs imposed by government, directly through taxes and indirectly through all manner of regulation(environmental, labor law, land use,) are more than 50% of the costs of operating energy production enterprises.

Bottom line is that no one knows how much cheaper coal, oil or gas really are vs "green energy".

tedsned| 2.23.10 @ 10:09AM

Wow, deja vu all over again. What is next, bell bottoms, gas lines and 55mph speed limits? Malaise revisited. I wonder why? This article was well written and could be sadly prophetic, however, the author completely ignores the positive effects of human ingenuity and the spirit of the American people who are waking up at last. We will soon put our political house in order, sweep out the looters and go back to work. When it gets this bad, we always do. Unfortunate that it has to get this bad for something to happen, but I guess that is just how our system works. Have faith, this is still America.

Dan Hirsch| 2.23.10 @ 10:30AM

You need to remember how and why Malthus was wrong. He was, and I venture, you will be shown to be similarly mistaken.

As long as free markets exist somewhere, Adam Smith's "invisible hand" will drive men to innovative solutions to real problems. Most innovations are easily transferred, duplicated, and enjoyed.

If you are as worried about the future as all that, help get the body politic to focus on real, immediate problems. How much of our resources should be expend on a small change in global climate that expresses itself slowly and gradually, versus addressing the potential of earthquakes, tsunamis, and hurricanes which have killed hundreds of thousands in the last few years?

A solid focus on what is real would be most helpful.

Dan Hirsch
Paris, Wisconsin

ARealist| 2.23.10 @ 10:42AM

So, if the US economy is sunk, along with the rapidly depreciating dollar - and apparently Europe is in just as bad shape, and China is fast on it's way to a massive bursting bubble, what is a investor / saver to do ?? -

Kitty| 2.23.10 @ 10:46AM

You might consider your mattress instead of a bank. Read John Crudele's column today in the business section of the NY Post.
...

Blackwatch| 2.23.10 @ 12:09PM

banks sell paper with ink on it. buy actual commodities that are already in limited supply that will have a definite re-sale or barter value during a crash if you are that worried.
quick list:
1. Fire arms and ammo
2. Fuel
3. stored food

see my point.

Consultant| 2.26.10 @ 11:14AM

Scale back the house, and try to get one somewhere where the cost of living is less and try to sell enough assets to pay for it cash. Hopefully get a little land where you can garden. Get some heirloom seeds that will reproduce from seed. Most hybrids will not germinate from seed. Stock some dries rice and dried beans. 100# of each isn't that much and it sure would beat standing in a food line. Maybe also get some beef jerky in storage. Never plan on the government doing anything for you, because without money from the private sector the government can't do anything. Put in some solar heating features for water. Get some self sufficiency materials now while the getting is good and have them in case. It is better to be over prepared than to be unprepared.

Retlaw| 2.26.10 @ 3:02PM

Good idea Consultant.
Let us know where you will be so the boys and I can come on over to help you tend your garden.
We will help you defend it from those who will want to do you harm and take what you have so they can save their lives.
No need for you to stock up on guns or ammo, we will bring plenty of our own.

Consultant| 2.27.10 @ 12:59AM

I am in Florida now, and it isn't the place to be if things are to become worse than they are right now. I think Tennessee or Missouri are good inexpensive places to live where you can buy a home on an acreage cheap. I think rural Tennessee is best of the two if you still need to work in the meantime. This is our choice, we are planning the move to Tennessee. This authors article pretty much sums up what I have been feeling deep in my gut. I don't want this to be, I just feel there is a good chance it is coming. If things never do get this worse, then we will have gained cleaner air and water great schools and a slower way of life. Not really losing anything that is important. If they do get worse, we would be in a better place to be self sufficient and ride this out. You just have to look at it, depending on where you are in your life. But you do bring up a good point. If you stock a few hundred pounds of dried beans and rice, store them in a cool and dry place, maybe in large tupperware style storage bins and tell no one. No one. If things do get bad, the supplies would be a theft target and if bad enough it may become illegal to have these stored supplies at all.

Yosemeti Sam| 2.23.10 @ 11:01AM

Re column - "Is our Children Learning?"

To American Spectator:

Appears I strike Liberal/Leftist nerves.

Do you or do you not validate email addresses
with posts?

You let an asshole - pardon the shorthand -
speak as if he were me.

Get your AS act together!

Do you have hacker firewalls - at all?

If not - moving on!

AS Webmaster - what's up with this compromise?

Frosty| 2.23.10 @ 11:09AM

We will come back when two things happen:

1. When Government as been adequately pared of its illegitimate involvement in areas of our life and economy that were not provided for by The Constitution, and

2. The American worker/inventor/entrepreneur/businessman is once again free to pursue life, liberty, and happiness without Government restricting his right to do so with onerous regulations and when his fellow citizens are no longer allowed to lay claim to the fruits of his labor.

sangredulce| 2.23.10 @ 11:10AM

A few years back,during the golden W. years, I was in a SE Asian country. I t happened to remind me somewhat of Mexico, in that the people were resigned, if not stoic, in the misery of their daily life. As I filled our rental car to the brim with gas, others limited their purchase to a few dollars worth. We purchases foodstuffs with abandon for our rented house, while the locals bought for he day. And yet, we ate out often during our trip.

I made a mental note then that in the USA, we were not used to living like that, from hand to hand. We may live from paycheck to paycheck, but lived unrestrained. Would we be able to live in this kind of economic reality? With high unemployment, high barriers to entrepreneurship, deficient public safety services, and limited financial services as a norm. A norm that Obama would love to move us to, I wonder how long the American character remains cool, without blowing up.

Because if anything, the US does have a founding document and a people that are resilient and resolute. I decided as I finished gassing our car that NO, we would not be used to this life and that NO, we would not stand for it for too long, while the same kind of corrupt creature roamed the halls of power. Theirs also felt entitled,but the difference is that even the populace felt rulers were entitled. How long before we strongly remind ours that's not the case here!

Old Soldier| 2.23.10 @ 11:27AM

Business and individuals will maximize profits, income, and capital gains this year. With taxes shooting up next year, the economy fill come to a full stop in 11 months.

2011 is going to be a very bad year unless there is a conservative take over in Congress and they take evasive action quickly.

Frosty| 2.23.10 @ 11:28AM

The Constitution is the blueprint for a happy and prosperous society. Maybe we should try it again, since it worked so well the first time. If the Supreme Court becomes inundated with justices who insist on "interpreting" the Constitution and "making it relevant to our time" to the point where we cannot rely on it to get us back on track, it might be time to avail ourselves of our second amendment rights.

blackwatch| 2.23.10 @ 12:21PM

Hey Frosty, sadly it may come to that. But i think before it does, a march on DC by an actual million patriots with axe handles, nine irons, and baseball bats would be much more productive and we wouldn't be likely to have any friendly fire incidents. Glass breaks easy, so do noses.

Retlaw| 2.26.10 @ 3:15PM

Frosty's comment, "The Constitution is the blueprint for a happy and prosperous society." is what is usually taught but it is not exactly true. The definitive document of the revolution was the Declaration of Independence.

However, what the Constitutional Convention, the founding fathers, so-called, knowingly laid the ground-work for was a coup d'etat. In this particular coup, the 'ins' were the sovereigns, that is to say the people, and the 'outs' were the lawyers, bankers, and land-speculators. This coup, lacking any crisis — any epiphany characteristic of modern coups — isn't even recognized as one. But a piecemeal coup is still a coup.

Just read what James Madison said during the constitutional convention about how the main goal of the new system has to be "to protect the minority of the opulent against the majority," and has to be designed so that it achieves that end. This is the founding of the constitutional system.

JP| 2.23.10 @ 11:33AM

Here's somethiing to test American Ingenuity: try reforming Social Security and Medicare. Those are 2 unfunded liabilities which will cost taxpayers over $100 trillion through 2100. Next, remove the mortgage deduction from the income tax, or cut the amount of money the federal government backs through the various student loan programs. Politics is the art of the possible; however, we have Europeanized a large sector of our economy. If you wish to know if its possible to cut the outlays of Social Security or Medicare (or to reform both programs from top to bottom), look at Europe. When Greece attempted to make small cuts to its entitlements, massive protests and riots broke out. And its citizens knew fully that thier nation is on the brink of economic collapse -even an approach of economic Armegeddon didn't break the entitlement mentality of the Greeks (or any nation that feeds at the public trough). We are not Greece, but we are not that far behind. Almost 70% of earners in this nation who make less than $65000 pay no income tax. What conservative politician will promise to remove this inequity? The GOP needs a group of very shrewd, determined, an principled politicians to clean up this mess -not to mention a lot of luck.

Of course, events may just overwhelm us all, and force this nation to make those hard choices it has been avoiding for a generation or 2. I think that is the author's main point.

squirrelena| 2.24.10 @ 5:35AM

How anyone can say UNFUNDED to Social Security and Medicare is assinine. We pay from the time we get our first little job and continue through out our life. If you get a part time job after retirement, you pay these monies again.

Also, can anyone even estimate the number of people who pay into these programs for many, many years and die either just before or just after retirement?

How can anyone justify saying "unfunded" to this? Just in my little comfort zone, I know of an endless list of people who pay into the system and never get anything out of it!

Maybe if the government had kept its' greedy hands out of what we pay in and not doled it out to social programs, we wouldn't have a problem.

John Daniel| 2.23.10 @ 11:45AM

Not so convinced we'll avoid an apocalypse...still too dependent on foreign oil and a currency worth the paper it's printed on. But, alas, Mr. Jefferson's agrarian republic now totally lost Col. Hamiliton's commercial empire....

Bob| 2.23.10 @ 11:58AM

While this article is certainly negative, the author is certainly correct on his analysis of the data -- a first for columns at AmSpec. At least someone is looking at the charts and data. But some of the posters are also correct that American innovation will improve the outcome. Tax cuts did not work for Reagan just as the stimulus did not work for Obama. As I've said on numerous occasions, inflation adjusted GDP did not rise any faster under Reagan than other presidents -- and the growth under Clinton was greater.

That said, there are a dearth of solutions presented. We do need to radically reduce government spending which means paring back Medicare and Social Security -- and yes -- even some military spending because that is where the money is spent and where future deficits lie. We must concentrate on lowering the costs of health care in this country (it is the largest component of Medicare/Medicaid) -- and the only way to do that is to ration care, have tort reform, take away the insurance anti-monopoly clause, and pay for results, not procedures. In addition, I've been saying for years now that we need to move to a flat tax for individuals and abolish the corporate income tax in favor of a neutral consumption tax. However, the politicians in Washington -- Palin, Romney, etc., included, don't have the huevos to do that because that means alienating seniors who are the largest Republican demographic group. We can't depend on Democrats to do this.

If the situation becomes bad enough, perhaps a more libertarian leaning third party will emerge. I think younger voters over time will get angry at the bill we are leaving them. That's one of the reasons Ron Paul won the straw poll at CPAC.

If you notice, the author roundly criticizes the idiots who post here at AmSpec who think that tax cuts are the answer and that Keynes was totally wrong.

Bravo!!!!!

Blackwatch| 2.23.10 @ 12:31PM

Hi Bob,

I think that we need to FREEZE all Federal spending now. Then over-time Congress can figure out which departments to pare back or eliminate. The economic pain can and should be spread across all demographic groups and all regions of the country. That means we are going to have to put the brakes on Medicare, SS, and lack of taxation by folks living at the bottom of the economic ladder. About 150,000,000 people in this country don't pay federal taxes. We need to find creative ways to get these folks out of the wagon and into the yolk with the rest of us.

full disclosure: paid $8500 in Federal Taxes, $2500 in State Taxes, and $4300 in property taxes on my house. Plus all of the hidden taxes on everything we buy. I'm not rich either. Just taxed enough.

Bob| 2.23.10 @ 12:59PM

I suggest you actually look at the federal budget. You'll notice that you really cannot "freeze" it. Medicare is growing because the cost of health care is rising and more people are living longer -- and that is the largest part of the budget. The only way to "freeze" Medicare is to reform it by law. Otherwise we are obligated to pay the claims. Medicaid is larger because more people are out of work. The only way to lower this is to cut Medicaid out for people who can least afford it. You can't freeze Social Security because the payout has been promised. Again, only reform will work here. These three entitlements are 53% of the federal budget. You cannot "freeze" interest payments we make to other countries and this is nearly 10% of the budget and growing. You cannot "freeze" military spending (20%)without getting out of Afghanistan and giving up on future military projects. What's left is 1/6th of the federal budget which pays for almost all of the governmental departments, the Congress, the IRS, FCC, FAA, and all of the other governmental agencies, the Capitol Police, etc. Even if you cut all of that, you'd still be so far under water for at least 2 decades.

Most people have not done the math and have simplistic solutions. Neither Republicans or Democrats have the will to do what needs to be done because, as the author notes, no one who wants to be reelected will cut spending.

Tim| 2.27.10 @ 9:55AM

If I understand you, you are saying there is no alternative but to "stay the course," cutting medicare and social security so we can continue to pay for wars and security. I do not agree.

The wars should be ended. They serve no purpose that is beneficial to the people. Medicare and Social Security should be paid out to those who paid in. The problem is that the funds have been spent and the programs have been turned into welfare programs, instead of as they were intended.

The solution to all this is very simple, but it doesn't involve doing the math. It involves reducing the role of the government. The problems will disappear like magic.

Bill Hussein O'Stalin| 2.23.10 @ 6:09PM

Once again Bob proves his reading or comprehension skills are lacking. In this paragraph the author notes correctly that Keynesian spending deflates the currency and simply leads to another bubble.

Brian B| 2.23.10 @ 11:59AM

Interesting that 'sexy corsets on sale' makes a far more reasonable and cogent argument than 'copyleft'.

Paul from SA| 2.23.10 @ 11:59AM

We're in big trouble. A collapse is inevitable. The question is when. We can take action now to mitigate the pain, but there won't be anything Obama, the Dems and Bernanke can do to "fix" their problem.

Whether one uses generic language (excessive, reckless borrowing, spending, lending....) or economice language (fiscal, monetary policy, artificial -- and failed -- credit expansion, devalued currency, reversing incentives, ...) people know what the gov't is doing isn't working and instinctively know it can't work. More reckless borrowing and spending is not the solution -- economically or politically.

The last recession was not allowed to do its work; a recession is a correction, and Obama and the Fed, with bailouts, spending, low interest rates, are delaying or preventing the correction from taking place. Housing, prices and wages must come down further from their inflated values. Their intrusions into the free market are creating another bubble, albeit a bubble that isn't visible like a traditional boom cycle, but it will burst.

Current fiscal and monetary cannot be sustained without substantial damage to our currency and debt structure.

When the Fed starts to tighten (and I don't think Bernanke will, due to political, business and media pressure) all hell will break loose. Foreign investors who've been riding on the cheap dollar will flee.

When it happens, gold might be the safest place for your money. Is there any major country who is not playing fast and loose with their currency as well?

Pingback| 2.23.10 @ 12:03PM

The Great Recession of 2011-2012 « The Republican Heretic links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…Home > Economics, Politics > The Great Recession of 2011-2012 The Great Recession of 2011-2012 Tue 23 Feb 2010 The Republican Heretic Leave a comment Go to comments James Strodes at the American Spectator has dour predictions for the state of the US economy in years to come. True, deficits are piling up, spending is out of control, and we’re still losing jobs, but is it really that…

Pingback| 2.23.10 @ 12:08PM

New Construction home in the Columbia South Carolina real estate … | South Carolina R links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…Great Southern Homes, includes a Junior Olympic Pool, … Read this article: New Construction home in the Columbia South Carolina real estate … Related Blogs on Great The American Spectator : The Great Recession of 2011-2012 Tiger Woods: A Great Role Model — Feministe Great Himalayan Drive Day 11: Missing an opportunity to explore … Related Posts New Construction home in the Columbia South…

Martin Owens| 2.23.10 @ 12:30PM

When I consider the future, I am quietly thankful that I have reached the age where one can honorably take refuge in drink....

Cal Mark| 2.23.10 @ 12:47PM

Such doom and gloom and despair! No Reaganites here!

In the mid-1800s, France (back then still a country of workers, not a country club of layabouts) lost a war with Germany and was saddled with crippling reparations. The Germans expected that this would eviscerate France for many generations. Instead, the French got angry and motivated, then amazed the world by paying back the reparations many years early. An object lesson for the author and all the gloomers responding.

This article--and its cheerleaders--commits two common sins unacceptalbe to analysis of reality: it assumes a kind of zero-sum game, and ignores what France had a century and a half ago, and what the USA still has today: the human spirit.

Life is not easy, and the road ahead will be hard. But this kind of despair is--dare I say it?--un-American.

ds80| 2.24.10 @ 1:32PM

Tell us, Cal, what Americans will produce ... and "something" is not an answer. Indeed, the outlook is grim.

Coyote Bob| 2.27.10 @ 12:52PM

You think the author pessimistic. I suspect that the author may be overly optimistic.

He did not even mention the greatest threat to the future of not only the US but all humanity: Cap and Trade and the financial dictatorship that is being built around us in the name of global warming or climate change.

Though it has been exposed as a fraud of breath taking magnitude, President Sotoro intends to implement it by Executive Order thru the EPA.

The whole purpose of cap and trade is to reduce (greatly) human activity to protect mother earth from people with a backyard barbeque, a car in the garage, and a heater/cooler in the house on the theory that they are destroying the planet. This is very close to reality today.

No matter how ingenious or clever you may be, when every aspect of your very existence is taxed and regulated, including the air you exhale, it's difficult to see how your human spirit will prevail.

Pingback| 2.23.10 @ 12:51PM

The American Spectator : The Great Recession of 2011-2012 : Secured Loans Unsecured links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…up the short falls. Yet, our entitlement spending has surged in recent decades (less than $800 billion in 1980 to now almost $4 trillion in 2010) See the original post here: The American Spectator : The Great Recession of 2011-2012 Tags: 800-billion, backs-through, depended-upon, economy, entitlement, europeanized, federal, income, mortgage, our-entitlement, recent-decades, student-loan, the-possible…

claire solt| 2.23.10 @ 12:52PM

In my experience, recessions correct economic imbalances and resource allocations. The recovered econpomy does not just return to status ante. so, people who fret at housing industry stats are lookling in the wrong place. We will see entrepreneurs developing unmet demands. Look to start ups to see where this goes.

Doctor Right| 2.23.10 @ 12:55PM

The next few years will NOT be easy...That's true.

But having said that, this article is nonsense.

We Americans are an optimistic, can-do people. We don't accept second-best. We don't acquiesce to adversity. We fight back. We adapt, we improvise, and we overcome.

In short, we're not Euro-weenies or cheese-eating surrender monkeys.

Yes, there are among us those who are. There are among us those who, to paraphrase the famous quote, prefer security to the "animating contest of freedom". Well, they're either with us, or they're against us. They can "bow down and lick the hand that feeds them". In shorty, the whiners, loser, and Ron Paul supporters can drop dead.

America will recover. The Revolution gave birth to our nation. The Civil War divided us, and then united us. WWI made the world stand and take notice of us, and they were scared. WWII made us a global power. Carter gave us Reagan. And Obama will kill the American left.

America will emerge, as always, victorious and better from the struggle.

Our best days are ALWAYS ahead of us.

Bob| 2.23.10 @ 1:14PM

It seems you have a lot in common with Baghdad Bob. While the author is perhaps a bit too negative, if you been trained in economics, you'd note that this is the worst situation we've had since the Great Depression. Two things started us on the path to growth after that event -- military spending for WWII and the lack of worldwide competition as Japan, Germany, Italy, and the U.K., were devastated by the war making competition fairly easy.

The economics problem is that we are no longer a primarily manufacturing economy. 70% of our economy is consumption. So even if we are tremendously innovative, we don't get the benefit of that innovation -- it goes to China, Taiwan, and other countries that have much lower worker compensation. In the past, innovation helped us more than others.

To get past this, we must rebuild the manufacturing sector with longer term planning so that we get the benefit of our innovation. Republicans don't believe in having an industrial policy and Democrats are more interested in spending that restructuring.

I'm a bit less negative than the author, but not much. And please don't talk about tax cuts -- they did not raise the GDP under Reagan and they won't do anything now except raise the debt even further. We need an industrial policy, a change in the business tax structure, and a budget austerity program. We need to raise the Medicare and Social Security age to at least 72 and begin to let Grandma die if she doesn't have the money to pay for the care.

But I don't hear any Republicans who want to really cut the budget. They talk a good game when they are out of power, but won't do anything when they are in power because they want to be reelected. Just take the stimulus for example. The majority of Republicans who voted against the stimulus bill because it won't add jobs, went back to their districts at ribbon cutting ceremonies and lauded those contracts that would add jobs to their districts.

If I could drop a bomb on the capitol when they had a joint session in action, I would. (Hey, Secret Service, only kidding....)

Melvin| 2.23.10 @ 2:55PM

Bob, with all that you have said in you above posts, and also saying that we need to rebuild our manufacturing base, and breaking your analysis down to its simplest form, how would we as a nation conceivable make this happen?
I have tons of questions, but also how could we compete in a world market when a Chinese works makes pennies and zero benefits that US employers are mandated to provide.

Roy| 2.24.10 @ 1:43AM

>>how could we compete in a world market

The question and..

>>benefits that US employers are mandated to >>provide.

Asked and answered!

The US doesn't need to "rebuild its manufacturing base"; it needs to eliminate governmo-blather, regula-babble, bureacro-nonsense and stimula-baloney. Then resources would flow to where they would be efficiently used; and if in that world somebody could make a profit on manufacturing in the US, they would! What would be irrelevant in that world would be pseudo-intellectuals like Bob.

Doctor Right| 2.23.10 @ 3:06PM

"Baghdad Bob"..???

WTH are you babbling about?

Melvin| 2.23.10 @ 3:32PM

I want to know from Bob or anyone else that posts here in American Spectator how he would institute his theory.
I'm not an economist nor pretend to be one. My take on this, we cannot recreate our once vaunted manufacturing base, but stranger things have happened in Rome.
I'll admit I'll be the first one to throw the first accusatory stone, but I also need to listen and think about everyones comments before I bust out the wrist rocket.
Bob's above idea intrigues me, no harm no foul to read what he has to say.

Joe Wilson| 2.27.10 @ 11:59AM

To quote Thomas Jefferson, "That government is best that governs least."

Buffers| 2.25.10 @ 8:57AM

You must also believe in unicorns and Utopia.

Mike2000| 2.28.10 @ 9:33AM

I haven't heard the term "cheese eating surrender monkeys" since 2003, when the French were actually right about the Iraq War.

I don't recommend quoting ignorant neo con hacks like Jonah Goldberg if you want credibility.

Pingback| 2.23.10 @ 1:19PM

Various and Sundry « Politicaljunkie Mom links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…deficit panel is a joke: O wants to appoint Andy Stern Michelle Malkin A Bad Polling Day for Obama Pat Austin Fired For Objective Reporting Obi's Sister The Manchurian Tiger Ben Stein The Great Recession of 2011-2012 James Srodes Maybe Gibbs Meant 'the American People in This White House' -- By: Jim Geraghty webmaster@nationalreview.com (Jim Geraghty) Mark Levin vs. Glenn Beck (And Some Other…

Pingback| 2.23.10 @ 1:45PM

There’s a Fight Brewing in the Conservative Movement links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…attempts to control the message , they're effectively starting a civil war ... One that will take all conservatives to a place they wish not go. And don't kid yourselves either, because the economy is only going to get worse ... Meaning people are going to grow more restless and less patient with Big Government ideas, perpetual war, and people telling them how to think. For more of my thoughts, please see…

Dagny Taggert| 2.23.10 @ 1:51PM

Mr. Srodes used to work for Forbes magazine. The technical service I use extensively (for investing) runs a great piece on betting the opposite way than the financial magazine covers suggest. The track record is remarkable. And why shouldn't it be? The financial news media is in the business of selling subscriptions. And by the time a theme has trickled all the way through the public, and everybody has an inkling, if you put it on the cover, it's popular and sells. Once a theme is excepted by the public, every player large and small has acted. Therefore I wouldn't use his Forbes resume item as a indicator of predictive skill--I'm inclined to believe he's most likely a terriffic counter-indicator. So thank you Mr. Srodes for being such a strong part of spreading the wall of worry that bull markets inevitably climb.

And copyleft, you are an idiot. Drop the "wall st vs. main street" and "corporate interests" rhetoric. "Main street" is wall street, and union and non-profit influence are just as strong as corporate influence in washington. Just can't drop the moonbat in your thoughts, can you? Dope.

Copyleft| 2.23.10 @ 2:20PM

Anybody naming themselves after a Rand character has very little room to call others "idiots"....

Keynes, as has been proven repeatedly, was right. Tax cuts do NOT cure cancer, as the Freidman/Chicago true believers want everyone to think.

Bob| 2.23.10 @ 2:25PM

Dagny -- Wall Street is NOT Main Street. I worked on Wall Street for several years and know better. Are they interconnected? Obviously. But Wall Street is now international. We had more international clients than domestic ones. In addition, the extreme financial leverage we had (about 30 for the investment banks and almost 80 for AIG), was not for the benefit of Main Street as the average Joe could not invest in hedge funds and directly in swaps and derivatives. For example, GS was able to short the mortgage market. Were you? Yes, a couple of instruments came out late, but by then shorting made little sense. Wall Street's business model makes money both on the way up and on the way down. How many pension funds do you know of that short as many stocks as they invest in?

Don't get me wrong, I don't begrudge their success, but in the last decade or so, it has come at the expense of Main Street. Now there are ways to make them more responsible for their actions by requiring decent capital ratios and less leverage, but that requires regulation -- something many Republicans are against because of the lobbying efforts and campaign donations of Wall Street.

Yes, unions are on the other side of the equation. But unions are only a shadow of what they once were -- and I'm no friend of unions. There is an imbalance here. Copyleft does not have it right -- not even close. But you don't have it right either (although I'm closer to you than lefty).

Dagny Taggert| 2.23.10 @ 10:07PM

I guess it all depends on what you feel the term "Wall Street" represents. Outside of the complicated high-end hedging and trading strategies and their inherent ups and downs, "Wall Street" to me represents many other things like the collective investment the majority of Americans hold in thier retirement plans and pension funds. Bob, what bothers me is the disparaging way buffoons like copylefty throw the term around. It's not good PR for capitalism when ignoramuses start to latch onto the connotation and fuel public pressure to hurt corporate America. Like you said, it's international now--the competition will keep getting stiffer. But, what copyleft doesn't get is that profits for corporate America is the capital we create to make our standard of living grow--collectively. Government spent money is simply that--money spent. Everything it creates is temporary. The programs' benefits last only as long as the capital funneled off our collective pile lasts.
As far as tougher rules, absolutely. There should be limits on the number of outstanding derivatives for a given amount of underlying assets. But do you think moonbats like Barney Frank who reported there weren't any problems at FNMA, despite what a 70-1 leverage ratio on thier balance sheet, can get those rules correct? It was the un-doing of the stupid mark-to-market rules that helped the market finally bottom.

and copyleft, I can't believe that was your given name. I chose a handle of a literary hero who's particularly relevant in many of these discussions. Who cares?

jd| 2.23.10 @ 5:37PM

THANK YOU for saying what I've always thought. Everytime I hear the left attack Wall Street I want to scream. Yes, Wall Street IS Main Street. Copyleft needs to stop singling out Wall Street and instead focus maybe on the greed and corruption of unions, Barney Frank or Chris Dodd for a change.

Nobama| 2.24.10 @ 3:42AM

Copyleft/Liberal Reader is a dirtbag marxist Axelrod troll--what else is the clown going to say?

Oldefarte| 2.23.10 @ 2:27PM

The problem is LAWYERS, who control governmental legislatures [who make, interpret, enforce,etc those laws, all to THEIR benefit, ie the tort reform issue involved in the healthcare debate]. If, instead BUSINESSPERSONS were in charge, our economy could be revived. Our domestic oil supplies should be fully developed; but instead, oil companies are forced to partner with middle eastern concerns in order to produce oil supplies. Why, because environmentalists [and their lawyer legislators] have historically restricted our development of domestic oil supplies. Oil turns into gas/electricity,etc which powers each/every commerical/business enterprise and thus creates wealth/income. Democrats [again, lawyers] have prevented our economic enhancement of our bountiful natural resources. Additionally, UNIONS [again, lawyer-like] have caused the exporting/downsizing of American jobs [due to the excess of the union wage scale over the market wage rate of same] to foreign countries [Detroit could compete easily with Japan in auto manufacturing if not for the excessive union wage rates that explode their costs/expenses]. Finally GOVERNMENT [again, lawyers and unions] economically get in the way of private businesses obtaining credit and multiplying money/income/economy,etc; and the larger government becomes, the smaller private business and our economy becomes. So to solve our economic problems, we need to get rid of (or decrease the number of) [1] lawyers, [2] unions and [3] governments!!!!!

Bob| 2.23.10 @ 2:45PM

Gee, and I thought George Bush had a Harvard MBA with many business people in his cabinet. However, for six years of his presidency he had Republicans in charge of the House and Senate. What could he do?

We've been down this road before. Once anyone gets into government, they lose their ability to make good decisions. It doesn't matter whether they were lawyers, or businessmen, or streetwalkers.

Oldefarte| 2.24.10 @ 10:11AM

Bob, FYI, Bush had a business MBA degree from YALE, not Harvard [you're confusing him with the CHOSEN ONE currently in office]; and he did NOT have a Republican congress, but a Democrat one. Once again, it's congressional legislatures [federal and state] that control the laws and governmental purse strings, NOT THE PRESIDENT. As such, MOST state legislatures [and certainly the federal one] historically are DEMOCRATS, not REPUBLICANS, and 90%+ of the Democrat legislators are LAWYERS [either practicing or degreed]. Once again, get rid of the LAWYERS [as Shakespeare once said] and solve the problem!!!!

Richard Cummings| 2.26.10 @ 11:46AM

George W. Bush received his B.A. from Yale and his MBA from Harvard. Obama did his B.A. at Columbia and his J.D. (law degree) from Harvard. Let's get our facts straight. Good law schools train you to think, bad ones don't.

Melvin| 2.23.10 @ 2:57PM

Bob, I posted on one of your posts in the wrong order, I have some questions and they are below Doctor Right's post.

Melvin| 2.23.10 @ 3:31PM

Melvin| 2.23.10 @ 3:33PM

Crap posted in the wrong place again, need to quit while I'm ahead today.

Bob| 2.23.10 @ 4:15PM

Melvin, the only way to implement this kind of strategy is to develop a fiscally conservative third party which has neither liberals or social conservatives who muddy up the waters. Term limits would help. If the focus was totally on fiscal conservatism and got rid of this nonsense of birthers, anti-abortion or pro-abortion, Christian nation, etc., then real fiscal conservatives, conservative democrats, moderates, and independents would join in droves. I don't consider this to be a big tent strategy as fiscal conservatism is not a big tent idea. But all of these other issues make the focus on the largest issue threatening our nation become diluted and the arguments go away from real data and analysis and move towards "beliefs" on both sides. I'm fed up with both parties, and the Tea Party people are more about white America than fiscal conservatism based on factual data.

JP| 2.23.10 @ 6:33PM

Bob,
I don't suppose you are very enamoured to Max Weber's ideas concerning the good habits of capitalism and merchantilism and religion. According to his now classic texts, the best capitalists in Western History were those who had deeply religious views. In the US, it was those Protestants that followed in the wake of the Great Awakening who formed the backbone of our Industrial Revolution, and financial growth (the Rockefeller family and its deep Baptist roots are a case in point). Rational things like the delaying of gratification, saving, and building large commericial enterprises are nothing more than an outgrowth of Calvanism. In other words, what appears to be rational is based on the irrational. You weaken religious sentiment, and you undercut market capitalism.

Melvin| 2.23.10 @ 6:59PM

"Don't believe everything you hear and only half of what you see."
Bob I wouldn't sell the Tea Party members short. I have been to a number of their rallies and you may find hard to believe but they philosophy isn't that far away from yours.
Even down here in Easter North Carolina there have been a few brothers that have continually attended Tea Party events.
To generalize Tea Party members as only inclusive to White America doesn't portray an accurate representation of this particular segment of Americans.
From the Tea Party events I have attended these Americans are just as hopping mad as you are in the outright fiscal irresponsibility of our government.
They're tired of government taking they;re hard earned take home pay at the point of a gun with no discernible returns.
They're tired of seeing Americans living in low tax payer subsidized low income housing getting wide screen plasma TV's delivered to them fro the furniture store and they're even more tired of having tax payer money bailout Wall Street and the banking industry and then taking it in the shorts of getting slammed with higher fees and interest.
Tea Party Americans are not what MSNBC, CNN and other media outlets potray them as a bunch of white, inbred, illiterate, barefoot hayseeds whose idea of fun is attending NASCAR and Klan rallies.
These Americans feel that they have lost their voice over the din of the Statists who feel that these Americans are not to be not heard or even seen. To the government these Americans are considered revenue streams and nothing else.
And frankly Bob I can't blame them. I know I have went on a rant and gotten of the track of what I wanted to post.
But I felt that Tea Party Americans are not that far away form your philosophy.

Pingback| 2.23.10 @ 7:57PM

Fast Cash Advance Loan – The Great Recession of 2011-2012 – Spectator.org « Fast Cash links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

Fast Cash Advance Loan – The Business of Books – Seattle Post Intelligencer Fast Cash Advance Loan – The Great Recession of 2011-2012 – Spectator.org The Great Recession of 2011-2012 – Spectator.org The coming crisis should be no surprise, for we all have had plenty of advance warning. If it is a surprise speculation by Wall Street’s investment houses that are soggy with…

Pingback| 2.23.10 @ 7:57PM

Fast Cash Advance Loan – Best PocketPC Freeware II – A New Beginning – Mobility Site links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…their time in the current location city and the other – target – city. Being a plug-in to Calendar program, Time Zone changes appointment start time so that in current city The Great Recession of 2011-2012 – Spectator.org The coming crisis should be no surprise, for we all have had plenty of advance warning. If it is a surprise speculation by Wall Street’s investment houses that are soggy with…

Dave| 2.23.10 @ 10:32PM

@ Kitty

John Crudele is an idiot, do not do anything he says.

Munch| 2.23.10 @ 11:08PM

In real dollars commodity prices have been on a downward trend for hundreds of years. This idea that oil will beome expensive in real terms is bunk. Exxon added more reserves this year than used. Natural Gas is in abundance. If something is rare - people substitute the next lower cost alternative. The history of the modern world is the long term decline of the real prices of commodities.

stephanie| 2.24.10 @ 1:39AM

WTF, not a single mention of the economic implications of the coming nuke-level attacks on globally important cities??? The islamofascist-leftist alliance, while limited and somewhat awkward, is real and has consequences.

De-globalization and the major global depression start with nuke#1.

Nobama| 2.24.10 @ 3:44AM

I think you're talking about global death, Stephanie.

Pingback| 2.24.10 @ 4:07AM

5 Great Reasons Why You Should Buy Commercial Property through Omaha Foreclosure List links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…Omaha now is the best time to make that purchase. Related Blogs on Great Custom Skullcandy headphones look, sound great Showcase of Great Web App Interfaces | Webdesigner Depot The American Spectator : The Great Recession of 2011-2012 Related Posts Benefits of buying properties from Free Omaha foreclosure listings Omaha Foreclosures – Why to Invest in a Foreclosure Property in Omaha and How to Buy One?…

Sebestian| 2.24.10 @ 5:44AM

I don't think so as this world is gonna end in 2010.
http://ezinearticles.com/?Best.....id=3789968

Pingback| 2.24.10 @ 7:29AM

Fast Cash Advance Loan – Payday Loan Lender Endorses New Better Banking Campaign – Bu links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…their time in the current location city and the other – target – city. Being a plug-in to Calendar program, Time Zone changes appointment start time so that in current city The Great Recession of 2011-2012 – Spectator.org The coming crisis should be no surprise, for we all have had plenty of advance warning. If it is a surprise speculation by Wall Street’s investment houses that are soggy with…

Pingback| 2.24.10 @ 7:29AM

Fast Cash Advance Loan – Illinois AG warns against refund anticipation loans – Quad C links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…expert Gary Miller-Cheevers (and CEO of payday loan company Speed-e-loans.com) has endorsed the Better Banking Campaign – even though his industry sector is one of The Great Recession of 2011-2012 – Spectator.org The coming crisis should be no surprise, for we all have had plenty of advance warning. If it is a surprise speculation by Wall Street’s investment houses that are soggy with…

Pingback| 2.24.10 @ 7:29AM

Fast Cash Advance Loan – The Business of Books – Seattle Post Intelligencer « Fast Ca links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…their time in the current location city and the other – target – city. Being a plug-in to Calendar program, Time Zone changes appointment start time so that in current city The Great Recession of 2011-2012 – Spectator.org The coming crisis should be no surprise, for we all have had plenty of advance warning. If it is a surprise speculation by Wall Street’s investment houses that are soggy with…

Patty Zevallos | 2.24.10 @ 11:40AM

We are fooling ourselves if we think the economy will “improve”

Excerpt from the Green Living site, www.pbzproductions.com/green/:

Even if our economy "improves," this would be illusionary, since a similar financial crisis can happen again. The reason for this is that the math doesn't work. Most household budgets have no income that can be spent on anything beyond basic needs. To buy anything else requires going into debt. But lending institutions are now required to be picky about who they lend money to. Even more importantly, there is no room in this tight average budget to make payments on any debt beyond housing and maybe a car. If borrowing that cannot be paid back keeps going on, it can lead to a total and permanent breakdown of the world economy, far beyond what we have already experienced.

Let's look at the average family budget:

Income $50,303
Taxes: federal income and payroll 7,281
Taxes: state and local income 4,879
Housing 17,109
Food 6,443
Healthcare 2,976
Transportation 8,604
Insurance, pensions 5,605
Total $52,897
Left after basic expenses -$2,594

The median income is according to the U.S. Census Bureau's Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2008. Expenses are from the U.S. Bureau of Labor's Consumer Expenditures—2008. The amount for federal and payroll taxes is from the IRS Employer's Supplemental Tax Guide, which provides withholding amounts for employers. The state and local tax estimate is based on the average of 9.7%, from retirementliving.com. Keep in mind that the healthcare average cost from the Bureau of Labor seems far too low (what were they smoking?), and it is not clear from the report whether health insurance is included under "healthcare" or "insurance/pensions." It appears that utility costs are included in "housing." Even if the numbers need a little adjusting, they would tell the same story.

The average family has no discretionary income per year, and is behind by $2,594 per year when only spending on basics. No wonder the economy melted down. The problem is not that suddenly Americans didn't have money to spend. They never had the money. Although the average income declined in 2008, from $52,163 in 2007, and offset a gain in income over the previous three years, there was no discretionary income in those years either. None of the vacations, electronic gadgets, restaurant meals, and such were paid for by money people had actually earned.

And the Obama administration's plan of tinkering with the tax code and making one-time stimulus payments will not alter the basic equation here.

So the green economy, or any economy that does not crash and burn on a regular basis, is focused on basics, with almost nothing on additional products and services.

This is sobering until you realize that such an economy would be far better for the environment without the destruction that excess consumer goods causes. It is also far better for people's lives. Is it really all that great to sit in a car several hours every day? To rush around, "multitasking"? Isn't the shopping mall a weird, impersonal place? Haven't you noticed that children will ignore a roomful of expensive toys and play with boxes or pots and pans?

Electronic gadgets aren't fun. They suddenly quit working and you go nuts trying to hunt down and read the manual to figure out what to do. Quickie food doesn't taste all that good compared to peaches right off the tree. When you go green you really aren't missing anything.

Find out more at www.pbzproductions.com/green/

Patty Zevallos
media producer – web, video, print

Pingback| 2.24.10 @ 1:41PM

Fast Cash Advance Loan – Re-creating the conditions for another CRASH – Stockhouse « links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…left a peculiar voicemail message on the work phones of his employees at Goldman Sachs. Fast becoming America’s pre-eminent Marvel Comics supervillain, the CEO used The Great Recession of 2011-2012 – Spectator.org The coming crisis should be no surprise, for we all have had plenty of advance warning. If it is a surprise speculation by Wall Street’s investment houses that are soggy with…

Pingback| 2.24.10 @ 1:42PM

Fast Cash Advance Loan – Briefly: Feb. 24 – Abington Mariner « Fast Cash Advance Loan links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…National MS Society and “Team Mac” for the 2010 MS Walk by participating in a Friendly’s fundraiser to be held between 4 and 8 p.m. Wednesday, Feb. 24 (rescheduled from Feb. 10 The Great Recession of 2011-2012 – Spectator.org The coming crisis should be no surprise, for we all have had plenty of advance warning. If it is a surprise speculation by Wall Street’s investment houses that are soggy with…

Citizen Jerry| 2.24.10 @ 4:48PM

Sorry, James. You lost me at "President Hillary Clinton."

Have a little faith in Joe and Jane Average, who make this great country work. At least they don't try to come off as the smartest person in the room.

INDEPNMS| 2.24.10 @ 5:09PM

If we could stop our current economic foolishness (which is nothing more than a "negative multiplier" effect) we just might begin to pull out of the financial nose dive. Not only are the economic policies of the Reagan adminstration a model to study and implement, but we should consider the economic policies of the early 1920's Harding adminstration. I wished our current administration would not consider doimg the FDR thing. An excellent article to read that explains this thought is : Great Myths of the Great Depression by Reed.

Pingback| 2.24.10 @ 5:20PM

ADF Alliance Alert » The Great Recession of 2011-2012 links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

Links Tags All Posts Subscriptions Donate Powered By: Google Wordpress Last Updated: Wednesday, February 24, 2010 3:20 PM EST The Great Recession of 2011-2012 James Srodes writes at the American Spectator: “The truth is our wizards dare not admit that the levers they pull are not really connected to the true crisis that confronts America or its place in the global market. Despite the…

Pingback| 2.24.10 @ 5:37PM

The Great Recession of 2011-2012 By James Srodes « Locust blog links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

America is collapsing, Death of the Nation, Deep Thinking- why we are where we are, Economic Collapse-Depression, Economy, Liberalism, limits to growth — whitelocust @ 10:35 pm The Great Recession of 2011-2012 By James Srodes from the February 2010 issue Are you ready for the Great Recession of 2011–2012? You should be, for it is getting under way even as you read this. Just as the 2009…

Liberty or Death| 2.24.10 @ 5:56PM

James~

Thanks for the insightful article. I just heard you expounding further on Hannity's radio program.

We have a long road ahead of us. Unfortunately, we do not have time on our side- the government is spending money at a hares pace. My fear is, we will not be able to stop this behemoth from running into the ground before the inevitable collapse occurs.

The saying goes, an addict has to hit rock bottom before contemplating recovery.

I am very concerned about the "rock bottom" America is racing towards.

Blair| 2.24.10 @ 6:47PM

When will these corruptocrats realize that when you're in a hole, you should stop digging?

terry| 2.24.10 @ 7:15PM

you based all this DOOM & GLOOM on 3 maybe 4 general dynamics numbers........you are about as factual as the barkers on the cable channels......next bring me something concrete to make point......if I want a novel I will reread one of Willam F Buckley's old books.

Pingback| 2.24.10 @ 7:16PM

The Great Recession of 2011-2012 | Atla$ $ucce$$ links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…The truth is our wizards dare not admit that the levers they pull are not really connected to the true crisis that confronts America or its place in the global market. http://spectator.org/archives/2010/02/23/the-great-recession-of-2011-20 Quote's from the Brain Trust Loading Quotes... Atlas Institute Matt Drudge Michael Savage Rush Limbaugh Atlas Institute of Finance Clark Howard Dave Ramsey Ric Edelman…

Pingback| 2.24.10 @ 7:35PM

WAITING FOR GODOT: THE OBAMA AGENDA « THE SAPIENT SPARROW: conservatism for commoners links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…rather than later. Monty Pelerin at American Thinker believes that Mr. Bernanke will need to decide quickly whether to allow spending to continue, or to shut off the spigot. James Srodes at the American Spectator simply thinks we should all be ready to begin the “Great Recession of 2011-2012”. We are waiting… The waiting for jobs is increasingly trying the patience of all. But the $35 billion “Jobs…

Pingback| 2.24.10 @ 7:55PM

Fast Cash Advance Loan – Briefly: Feb. 24 – Plymouth Bulletin « Fast Cash Advance Loa links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…run of the Olympic giant slalom race. The American lost control around a right turn on the top half of the course Wednesday, got twisted around, landed hard on her left hip The Great Recession of 2011-2012 – Spectator.org The coming crisis should be no surprise, for we all have had plenty of advance warning. If it is a surprise speculation by Wall Street’s investment houses that are soggy with…

Pingback| 2.24.10 @ 8:57PM

The US economic crisis - Page 2 - PersonalityCafe links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…commuting to work and home. I also became skpetical when I found that the man was acutally being interviewed on the Sean Hannity Show. I came home and googled his recent article in the American Spectator(click to read) . It actually makes sense and parallels many things that I have just intuitively known for years. Page 2 of 2 < 1 2 Bookmarks Digg StumbleUpon del.icio.us Google Tags crisis,…

jimmy m| 2.24.10 @ 9:07PM

I should hope that everyone takes note and get out and vote the rejects in congress out and put some term limits on them, most of congress has not been out in the real world in more then 10 years. also bring back Glass-Steagall act and stop wasting time making show on Toyota over a safty problem spend some time on something that matters I lived the carter days before ragan and belive me they were no fun

Pingback| 2.24.10 @ 9:12PM

American Spectator: The Great Recession of 2011-2012 « Just Americans Making Ethical links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…show this afternoon, he mentioned the following article and then had the author, James Srodes on as a guest. The article is lengthy, and listening to the author gives a great perspective: The Great Recession of 2011-2012 By James Srodes from the February 2010 issue Are you ready for the Great Recession of 2011–2012? You should be, for it is getting under way even as you read this. Just as the 2009…

Reaction to Closed Minds| 2.24.10 @ 9:13PM

Nice try but not buying it ... at least at this point

Srodes piece is a tad too pessimistic for my take. We can all organize, edit, present & emphasize data to make a point(s) ... but that does not make it true or likely to occur. Humanity is an iterative exercise bound to repeat its failures because that is what the gene map requires to some extent ... but there are inspired or unplanned events or acts of individuals etc ... that reset any trajectory (Zhukov at Moscow, Brusilov annhilating Austria-Hungary as any kind of force (and more really), Midway, Chosin Reservoir, Duke of Wellington, Alexander the Great, Charlemagne, and not even getting to religous or spiritual ...... .

Specific: He maybe correct that inflation adjusted GDP was higher than under Reagan ... buthow can this guy so soon forget that alot of Clinton's econ progress was phony per Rbt Rubin's steroidal wink & nod to all to buy US Treasuries with Republican Congress limiting CLinton while Greenspan goosed monetary policy so that the welfare reform exercise would work? Sec'y Baker misspoke and set-off the 1987 crash ...

There was more innovation by far under Reagan than Clinton. The venture capital industry took off in the 1980s, as did tech innocation to market ....

I could easily go on dissecting this. Surprsing so many are falling so hard for this. Must be 'fallen-out-of-global-warming love' rebounds having to find some 'fatalistic' event to tremble at.

Reaction to Closed Minds| 2.24.10 @ 9:29PM

I forgot the one of most obvious inspirational military impacts .... a young Turkish officer under 104 degree temperature bed sickness who, under a faltering Ottoman regime, is told that a large force of British troops landed at the beaches around Gallipoli. He promptly got out of bed and isssued orders for his troops to race to the high ground surrounding the beach ..... then ordering them to stick their bayonetted but empty rifles (as they had no ammo as they ran so fast) over the hillcerest so the advancing British paused.

That young officer was Ataturk and his sole actions turned a brilliant but poorly executed idea by Churchill into a bloody disaster ruining the British image amongst its Commonwealth members forever, relegating Churchill to the political wilderness for the botch, and many more consequences.

The same can hold true in economics ...even more so since, it is a marketplace of constant individual decisions etc ..... that is ultimately why Srodes is wrong ... he just does not what will occur ... no one does .... individuals will ulitmatley decide .. not some fatalistic prediction.

BA Cyclone| 2.25.10 @ 9:09AM

It is true that we don't "know" what will happen in 2011, or pick your date. The future is not written, and this article is likely written as though it is to make theatre to drive home the central point.

We don't have to 'know the future' to know what certain things, or rather certain actions bring about. History is instructive. Past performance usually IS indicative of future results. I don't have to know for certain there will be a forest fire tomorrow, but if I keep throwing lit matches around in dry pine needles...

Pingback| 2.25.10 @ 10:13AM

Thought-provoking reading on the Great Recession « A Quiet Simple Life links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…listen to Sean Hannity on the radio. He’s a bit too intense and in your face for me. However, I heard him mention talking to the author of this article and tuned in to listen: The Great Recession of 2011-2012. It is very interesting reading. The most important bit I took away from it was the fact that there is no going back to the way things were the past 50 years. It simply isn’t…

LILI | 2.25.10 @ 2:48PM

God help us all!

Pingback| 2.25.10 @ 5:22PM

Susan Boyle “How Great Thou Art” | Susan Boyle Celebrity Monitor links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…A Dream…….Music owened by sycomusic .. Lisc. Sony Music Entertainment……. Related Blogs on Great Showcase of Great Web App Interfaces | Webdesigner Depot The American Spectator : The Great Recession of 2011-2012 Great Places to Teach English Related Posts How Great Thou Art Susan Boyle – How Great Thou Art (New Song) Caitlin Kelly – Broadside – Susan Boyle's New CD —…

Pingback| 2.25.10 @ 6:48PM

Simon Property Group may merge | Rick's Blog | Escambia County FL Real Estate links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…Follow this link: Simon Property Group may merge | Rick's Blog Related Blogs on Great Great Places to Teach English Showcase of Great Web App Interfaces | Webdesigner Depot The American Spectator : The Great Recession of 2011-2012 Related posts: Pensacola Real Estate News » PMI Companies Hit Hard By the Real … Roads, Inc Circus has second act today | Rick's Blog » Pensacola Beach Blog:…

Pingback| 2.25.10 @ 9:23PM

Why bother making mortgage payments? « Politicaljunkie Mom links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…About 2.82 million U.S. homeowners lost properties to foreclosure last year and 4.5 million filings are expected in 2010, RealtyTrac Inc., an Irvine, California data company, said last month. Remember this: The same for housing prices, only more so. It was headline news recently that house prices in “some” areas of the country had stopped declining quite as fast, while in some fewer areas there were even…

Pingback| 2.26.10 @ 3:23AM

Fast Cash Advance Loan – H&R Blogs – Herald & Review « Fast Cash Advance Loan links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…short cost payday loans in under an hour, and doing a nice quantity every day with much success! If you’re serious about acquiring a payday loan in an online power, choose what The Great Recession of 2011-2012 – Spectator.org The coming crisis should be no surprise, for we all have had plenty of advance warning. If it is a surprise speculation by Wall Street’s investment houses that are soggy with…

Pingback| 2.26.10 @ 4:43AM

The Coming Great Recession of 2011 – 2012 « Aminoff & Co. Real Estate Market News links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

About Posted by: Gary Aminoff | February 26, 2010 The Coming Great Recession of 2011 – 2012 The American Spectator published an article written by James Srodes titled, “The Great Recession of 2011-2012″ Mr. Srodes hits the nail on the head. He explains why, despite the rosy projections you read in the morning newspaper, we are headed for worse times in the next couple of years. …

Rob| 2.26.10 @ 11:30AM

Bloated. Anti-climactic. Obviously slanted, politically speaking. Can you be any more transparent in your man-love for Ronny Reagan? There is alot of truth in the article, but they are all obvious truths. There is also alot of slanted political opinion, and if you have it all figured out so nicely, why dont you go ahead and answer the questions at the end of your article? You owe me 15 minutes of my life that I will never get back, you hack.

Matt Gies| 2.26.10 @ 2:30PM

You lost me at "President Hillary Clinton". Journalism is primarily supposed to distinguish between fact and fiction. What are you smoking?

Jim O'Brien| 2.26.10 @ 3:39PM

The sky-rocketing national debt will lead to much higher interest rates and further erosion of the dollar. Add to this crisis Obama's new taxes, which come in different flavors. Expiration of the Bush tax cuts by itself is enough to kill economic growth. Unemployment will continue to rise, the value of bonds will plummet, along with real estate values, and banks will take more losses. Stocks are headed South.

The national debt is growing by about $1 billion every 17 hours, yet Obama and his fellow fools want to spend trillions more. They think they can pay for just about anything by "taxing the rich"; they are oblivious to the fact that there will never be enough taxpayers to pay for all the socialist "programs".

We are rapidly approaching the day when the most productive Americans decide to leave the country, seeking freedom.

Pingback| 2.26.10 @ 6:57PM

The Great Recession of 2011-2012 - suijurisclub.net links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

… Today, 05:57 PM reenie Supreme Club Member Join Date: May 2009 Location: Tucson, and Mexico Posts: 2,620 Downloads: 1 Uploads: 0 The Great Recession of 2011-2012 The American Spectator : The Great Recession of 2011-2012 The Great Recession of 2011-2012 By James Srodes from the February 2010 issue Are you ready for the Great Recession of 20112012? You should be, for it is getting under way…

tt and the bear| 2.26.10 @ 7:27PM

Your opening paragraph gives you away as un-prophetic. Hillary is all washed up just has many of her ilke are. You have no idea what is coming down the road.

Mike| 2.26.10 @ 7:33PM

We could save $350 billion a year just by ending illegal immigration, and we could spend $100 billion to give everybody Madicare, saving $130 billion in health care insurance bills paid by industry. Ending both wars could save untold billions, and halving US militarism worldwide could save up to $500 billion a year if you ask Ron Paul.

Ending the Bush tax cuts save $100 billion a year that would have been invested in derivatives or sent to China anyway. Ending all corporate income taxes would cost $100 billion, but save far more in paperwork and accounting! Why have corporate income tax if the Forbes top 100 pay nothing at all due to creative accounting? Just level the playing field and put the accountants out of work.

That's a trillion dollars, give or take. Not a bad start.

Daniel| 2.26.10 @ 8:03PM

If there is a solution to the coming tsunami you can rest assured that the traitors in Congress will opt for the alternative(s).
Why, why, why, do we allow dual citizens to serve in our Government? Let's change the law to outlaw them from serving in high levels of government, you know, like the Israeli's for instance...

Rusty| 2.26.10 @ 8:37PM

And so it goes .on and on round and round.. deadlock time to play the wild card...?

M Petrus| 2.26.10 @ 8:44PM

I love watching the the democrats blaming the republicans and the republicans blaming the democrats when people fail to realize they are both on the same team. Meanwhile people who try to make a change like Jesse Ventura or Ron Paul are made out to be lunatics when the speak the truth. People fail to learn from history, people that speak the truth now and in the past are made out to look like lunatics because they are upsetting the status quo and the powers that be don't like that. Meanwhile the citizens eat it up as their attention is diverted to nonsense like the Superbowl. Keep the masses entertained. If you want to make a change start voting these incumbents out both democrat and republican and start listening to the lunatics, becasue they may actually be right.

SilverFox| 2.26.10 @ 8:55PM

What a magnificent article. You put everything in correct order & I hope others pass your article around as I will be doing.

Gold is too high to purchase now, but I can recommend that everyone invest in canned food with 2 year expiration dates. That way, you eat food, you bought in 2010, in the year 2012 & save on 2012 inflation & don't have to pay capital gains to the IRS.

Vern| 2.26.10 @ 9:24PM

Every U.S. State should have it's own State run bank like North Dakota which is the only one running a surplus, the money needs to be local.
Eliminate all property taxes on homeowners and withholding taxes on employees ... then replace it with a State sales tax and not a National sales tax, Washington D.C., the Federal Reserve and Wall St can fend for themselves!!!

Jack RUby| 2.27.10 @ 3:41AM

Times of Troubles are upon the world. Beam me up Scotty.

David| 2.27.10 @ 3:49AM

The Death of America is at hand nothing less.
USA has already been sold off and sold out .
nothing remains American
the Parks,the railroads,the ports,even a couple of banks .The roads, the jobs,industry and the list goes on.
The America you knew is already gone.
But it is not over yet,for the end game America is capitulates to the EU.
What we can look forward to is being packed like sardines up along the Canadian border where the Hydro electric reaches in from Canada.
I know many Americans long for their old America,but that is over, your politicians stole that from you and you revered them as they did it to you. What lays in store for the American people in the distant future is a ransacked land that does not belong them,whose masses are huddled for warmth and who have been reduced to a vernacular of Them thar and I'se a fixin to
you will speak like your ancestors and be reduced to indentured servants toiling the land like them.
for they have reduced you to imbeciles so they could steal everything from you.
They may well start ww3 to reduce Russia and China to your fate as well. Of course the EU will watch as you are all reduced to rubble.
Soon the Eu will have a central economy and an Army that is the superior.

Tim| 2.27.10 @ 9:18AM

Though I agree with most of what the author has to say, one point on which I must disagree is that Reagan cut taxes. As an investor, I followed the Tax Reform Act of 1984 closely. The media created a myth that it was a tax cut. If you research this closely, it was REVENUE NEUTRAL. That means some people got a tax cut and others got a tax increase. At the time, nominal rates were as high as 90%. Reagan reduced those but eliminated tax deductions that allowed people to avoid the higher tax rates.

The problem with Reagan's "trickle down" economics (I was a rabid Reagan supporter at the time), deregulation, etc. is that corporations have all the rights of people without the responsibilities. Corporations were the beneficiaries, and the burden was placed on the public on the theory that as corporations prospered, the public would benefit. Then came NAFTA (Reagan introduced NAFTA, but left before it was passed in 1990) and the corporations offshored their benefits, leaving the public to bear the costs.

will| 2.27.10 @ 10:06AM

Article has little to do with the recession of 2011-2012. More like a historical rant

Pingback| 2.27.10 @ 10:18AM

The Great Recession of 2011-2012, Are You Ready | Bible Prophecy In The News links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…so we are in the early days of the next cycle. Only this recession is going to be a doozy. And the aftershocks will be felt long after President Hillary Clinton leaves the White House in 2024. via Read Full Article. Tags: america in prophecy, bible prophecy, biblical prophecy, end times, great depression, GreatRecession, Hillary Rodham Clinton, last days, President of the United States, prophecy headlines,…

marcos | 2.27.10 @ 10:52AM

I think 2012 will be more real than we are willing to believe. The earthquakes, financial, etc are just precursors. Check out www.Hello2012.com for more information!

Obsidiousrex| 2.27.10 @ 1:48PM

When rights and ethics decay in society everything else follows along with it. Taxes, electronic segregation, loose loan policies that will never be recooped, rampant illegal immigration, overpopulation...the list goes on. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. My fellow country men, we are certainly on the downward slide. Beware of B!G BRUDA. The economy gets worse, but the surveillance keeps getting better. They are watching you.

Grass Smoking Hippy| 2.27.10 @ 2:32PM

Will the Paleoconservatives please run for office

Mike| 2.27.10 @ 3:45PM

You mean the Old Right? Goldwater? I'm not sure we can save the republican party, my grass-smoking nemesis. The neo-cons own it. Today, if you oppose foreign adventurism and giant government, you have to put up with the Libertarians (but at least there is Ron Paul).

Still, maybe we can take the party back. I mean, who believes the neo-cons anymore?

DAVE-Y| 2.27.10 @ 3:35PM

In the end the little people may have the power to bring government idiocy to an end without firing a shot or hanging one Congressman or Senator - NOT saying they don't deserve that fate but let's stay civil for the moment. WE control the real money. We work and get paid. It is our taxes that allow these fools to sell us the idea of how caring they are and how OUR interests are best served by re-elction. Without our taxes ALL governments would strangle and then we would all get to see how utterly useless most of what they do really is. The end / beginning will come when enough little people are hurting enough to ask WTF happened and then decide they simply will not support what our governments have turned into.

Pingback| 2.27.10 @ 7:16PM

The Great Recession of 2011-2012 links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…behind the curtain. The truth is our wizards dare not admit that the levers they pull are not really connected to the true crisis that confronts America or its place in the global market. Read More at the American Spectator If you enjoyed this post, make sure you subscribe to my RSS feed! Posted in Debt, Economics, Economy, Government Spending & Waste, Recession, Small Business, Stimulus, Taxes,…

Pingback| 2.27.10 @ 7:45PM

The Great Recession of 2011-2010 | FINANCIAL PREPAREDNESS links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

2011-2010 | FINANCIAL PREPAREDNESS FINANCIAL PREPAREDNESS By failing to prepare you are preparing to fail. Home About Post Privacy The Great Recession of 2011-2010 Good things to read in The Great Recession of 2011-2020 from the American Spectator. Like Unlike Posted by jmz on Feb 27 2010 in Uncategorized No Responses to “The Great Recession of 2011-2010” Leave a Reply Name (required) Mail…

Sam Freeman| 2.27.10 @ 8:46PM

What a bunch of right wing claptrap. We tried it your way and it didn't work. Bush and the republicans said that their tax cuts were going to create 15 million new jobs. Well that didn't happen. Under Bush we had the weakest level of jobs growth since the great depression as our economy only created 2.8 million new jobs. What a joke. This whole mess was started by a bunch of Wall Street Greedsters and Fraudsters who were given a license to steal by the pushing of deregulation for the financial markets and the massive outsourcing of American jobs to cheap labor markets around the world. Don't believe me then try reading what Paul Craig Roberts says about all of this. http://www.vdare.com/roberts/all_columns.htm
BTW: Paul Craig Roberts was Ronald Reagan's cheif economic advisor and his deputy secretary of the treasury.

A Canadian| 2.27.10 @ 10:46PM

There are many things that separate Canadians from Americans, but sadly the economy isn't one of them. When yours tanks so will ours and we will be holding hands the whole way down.

I have spent most of the last hour reading all the comments and I'll admit that I had to fast forward (downward) through some of them. No one is disputing that we are heading for some dark days. The thing that seems to be amiss is the idea that this is coordinated.

A comment made a few days ago on here by a gentleman got close to the real issue. He was speaking around the idea that Obama's plan is not working but that McCains approach wouldn't either. He sated boldly that "we never had a chance". And that is exactly it. From the highest levels of government to your local backyard candidate, everyone has been vetted. The GOP and Democrats pick their candidates and showcase them in front of you for you to "choose".

There is no choice. For decades now, probably since the assassination of JFK the Gop and Democrats have been disguised as two separate parties. The idea is that no matter who you 'choose' the men in charge stay in charge.

It is frustrating when people cannot wrap their head around the idea that the guy with the 'manager' tag isn't the owner. The white house may have switched managers over the last two decades but the ownership has stayed the same. When you are able to keep that intact you can implement and agenda that takes longer than two terms to be fully realized.

The goal is to create one world currency, one world bank, and one world order. Funny that the term world order is now being used as regular vocabulary by the same men that damned the phrase decades ago.

I am not offering any solutions because I couldn't tell you the first thing about resisting a revolution that has been designed, developed, and put into action by people with more money and power than I will ever have. But please we can not even think to move forward until we realize that governments across the world do not work for their people any more. Why can we believe this of African countries but not our own. The only difference between a poor African country with a corrupt government and the U.S. is that the people of the U.S. have clean drinking water. That is about it. The poor African country might have a bit more money (or less debt depending on how you wanna look at it) But thats it.

So to the people that say, "all we need is better policy", "men of stature" get real. Denis Kucinich, Ron Paul and fist full of others are their trying. Look how well it has worked.

Rich people buy assets, and the middle class buy liabilities -- (rich dad poor dad)

Right now the rich are buying assets we didn't even think were up for sale. The amazon is being traded as we speak buy banks buying up "carbon credits" Thanks Al Gore.

The world market is a mess. And it will be cured but not by me or you. It will be 5- maybe 15 years from now. The solution will be one world order. And we will get fed the same lines my great grandfather was fed during the depression: "by doing it this way it will never happen again". And we will all be happy to sign on to whatever all that may mean just as long as we get our house and car back.

Canadian| 2.28.10 @ 12:33AM

Woa, sorry for the lack of revision and insulting everyone here with my grammar tonight. My apologies.

Cold Wind| 2.28.10 @ 9:52AM

As Karl Denninger ( The Market Ticker) has stated: "Let's Cut the Crap-we are in a Depression right now." Given the strangle hold the central banks have on the world economies, what lies ahead is war, fascism and bankruptcy. Sharpen your pitch forks and at least go down fighting.

Pingback| 2.28.10 @ 2:05PM

A Magnitude 8.8 Earthquake Rocks Chile – Hundreds Dead And A Half Million Homes Sever links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…or the COBRA health insurance subsidy. Sales of previously owned homes plunged in January to their lowest level since last summer. Is the United States getting ready to enter into yet another "Great Recession"? According to Real Capital Analytics, the default rate for commercial property mortgages held by U.S. banks more than doubled in the fourth quarter and may reach a peak of 5.4 percent by the end…

Joe Blow| 2.28.10 @ 2:30PM

There is no such thing as a "Democrat administration." It's "Democratic." How you guys can repeatedly make such a fundamental mistake is a mystery to me. (Oh, unless it's on purpose. 'Cuz Democrat sounds like "rat." I get it.) Let's put the blame where it belongs: 30 years of insane Reaganomics. Or "voodoo economics," as the elder Bush put it so succinctly. Reagan tripled the national debt. Junior Bush escalated the debt from $5 trillion to $10 trillion, creating the single biggest government bureaucracy in history, Homeland Security. So much for the myth of small government Republicans--on that we can all agree. Sadly, Clinton was more than happy to ship our jobs overseas via GATT and the WTO, and Obama is merely Bush III as he blithely channels Jr.'s gusto for military industrial complex spending, as well as his love of all the tools of the NWO: spying, a separate set of laws (i.e., none) for war criminals and multinational corporations, and a never-ending list of newly created presidential powers that would make a king envious.

Pingback| 3.1.10 @ 4:59AM

Flow » Blog Archive » Daily Digest for March 1st - The zeitgeist daily links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

Flow » Blog Archive » Daily Digest for March 1st - The zeitgeist daily Flow The zeitgeist daily Search for: Daily Digest for March 1st Shared How Slums Can Save the Planet. Shared US Gov’t. Ending Its Hands-Off-the-Internet Stance.…

Nicolas Noel Redding| 3.6.10 @ 9:11AM

I live in Denmark; we have rising unemployment and big gov spendings turning it all down. What we all must think about is the robotized/mekanized computer-future - there is no need for manpower in the future - this is the key problem in the coming years, and untill we realize this we will be in big trouble. Greetings to you all and welcome to CyberSpace.

Pingback| 3.8.10 @ 9:24PM

The Great Recession of 2011-2012 | Monty Pelerin's World links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…Wisdom Why Liberty Fails » The Great Recession of 2011-2012 By Monty Pelerin, on March 8th, 2010 A lengthy article focuses on the problems ahead. It appeared in the February American Spectator. Share/Save March 8th, 2010 | Tags: American Spectator, History, United States | Category: Government, economy Leave a Reply Cancel Name (required) Mail (will not be published)…

Pingback| 3.10.10 @ 3:40PM

Common sense & taxes links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…always believed that if you didn’t want the kids to overspend their allowances, you didn’t give them the money in the first place.” Ronald Reagan As quoted by James Srodes in his excellent article, “The Great Recession of 2011-2012″ in the February issue of American Spectator. No econometrics necessary. Just a smidge of parental common sense. Hopefully we are on the verge of the…

Pingback| 3.10.10 @ 10:05PM

The Great Recession of 2011-2012 - Monty Pelerin's World links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…By Monty Pelerin, posted March 8th, 2010 http://www.economicnoise.com/2010/03/08/the-great-recession-of-2011-2012/ A lengthy article focuses on the problems ahead. It appeared in the February American Spectator. Posted: Wed, Mar 10 2010 10:04 PM by Monty Pelerin | with no comments Filed under: economy, American

Pingback| 3.11.10 @ 7:12PM

The Prophetic View News! – March 12, 2010 « The Prophetic View News! links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

…Protection CA Starts Taxing 80% Of Income BEFORE It’s Earned US Economy Continues To Slow ♦ Is Moving Out of the United States a Way to Escape the Coming Economic Collapse? Are You Ready For The Great Recession of 2011-2012? US Currency Soon to be Radically Altered ♦ Sovereign Debt and the Economic Crisis – When Countries are Bankrupt ♦♦♦ Detroit Homes Sell For $1 Detroit To Shrink – Turn…

Pingback| 3.12.10 @ 11:15AM

» Hello world! An Alternate Economic System links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:

Hello world! An Alternate Economic System An Alternate Economic System The Islamic Economy Hello world! March 12, 2010 at 5:11 am · Filed under Uncategorized The Great Recession of 2011-2012 By James Srodes from the February 2010 issue Are you ready for the Great Recession of 2011–2012? You should be, for it is getting under way even as you read this. Just as the 2009…

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Evan| 7.5.10 @ 11:26PM

man... this started out well, even threw in that Reagen was confused... and then COMPLETELY missed how intertwined corporate america and big governement are... i mean, i don't know what frustrates me more.. Ok, fine, LOVE business and money and competition, but realize, PLEASE, that HUGE corporations DO NOT WANT COMPETITION, at all, and will do anything to get rid of it yet make it seem like it exists. With multinational corporations business competition no longer exists. In order for a true capitalism to work, if thats what is wanted, business must be kept small and private, maybe state wide stores, but anything larger and the whole picture blows up.. on a side note, i did a horrible job of trying to explain what i wanted, but ef it..

ClarkB | 7.8.10 @ 1:04AM

I agree with Mr. Srodes 100% (I almost never say that).
The point that we need to acknowledge is that all economic activity is ultimately based upon environmental outputs.
We live in a physical world. Classical Economics is an incomplete model of flows in and out of the ecosystem, since it ignores the value of environmental capital, production sources, and sinks (pollution receptors).
Financial and Economic discussion misses the salient key point of knowledge - That there are finite limits to natural resources and that the low hanging (cheap) fruit is gone. Yes, you will be able to get oil or electricity to take a Sunday drive in 2020. The question will be, if at $25 per gallon or per kWh, if you can afford the trip.
The concept of 'Energy Return On Investment', also known as EROI, is the example Mr. Srodes gave of less accessible energy reaching the point of negative returns. Thus, using more energy to bring a ton of coal the surface than that coal will produce make no sense economically. Such expensive coal would only be mined if it is need for humans to SURVIVE.

You see, the ultimate bubble is the 6.5 billion humans on Earth, of who 5.5 billion have arrive within the past century. Oil was the substrate that fueled the human population bubble; much like a dollop of sugar can cause rapid microbe growth. It is when the sugar (oil) is used up that massive organism die-offs occur. Bacteria go peacefully. How about humans?
About 4-5 billion people need to exit the planet in the next 50 years. Get it? This isn't about the stock market, or manufacturing, or tax rates, or politics, or economic theory. It is about the physical reality of the end of cheap energy and the collapse of the human population bubble.

Mr. Srodes is spot on in his analysis.

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pink laundry basket | 12.26.10 @ 10:37AM

Clinton was more than happy to ship our jobs overseas via GATT and the WTO

Vanesa Perez | 1.4.11 @ 7:50PM

Unfortunately in my country Spain there is over 20% on the paro (jobless) - far too many people have spent beyond their means - mainly people trying to live up to their next dor neighbour, Mr and Mrs Jones. Now has come the time for pay-back ... unfortunately many cannot and lose their homes. I can see unemployment rising to 30% by the end of the year and then people will hit the streets and start fighting each other for food and whatever as the Government social security funds will have long dried up -- hey, at least we have sunshine though and lots of oranges!

Shannon C.| 3.20.11 @ 1:43PM

Every point you just delivered; refreshing yet educated, realistic perspective sum-up of our "blind leading the blind situation", the desperate and helpless situation I have the misfortune of living through at 34, was spot on.
Folks are indeed in denial as how bad things are -- and I'm personally exhausted -- both physically and mentally -- and have been unemployed for almost 2 years with a Bachelors in Art and Design from Columbia, Certified Dental Assistant, Real Estate School student in Hawaii, a former ESL teacher in South Korea for 3 years, speak 5 languages, and traveled 26 countries as a backpacker seeking the true reality of unfiltered, unbiased sociological insight of outsiders of America -- which is rapidly becoming a "lock-down state" . Both the police and Congress create and enforce new rules not for your safety but for state and national revenue i.e. fines, fees and new tax laws because our country is so broke.
Attempting to live, and then failed, in Arizona, California, Hawaii, Washington and again Chicago, has made me conclude that in order to survive one HAS TO STOP REPRODUCING! And migrate as our ancestors did.
Be a martyr by not breeding -- stand up for what you believe in. Humans are selfish, polluting, horny, greedy, money-grubbing animals that threw all moral conduct and integrity overboard about 30 years ago.
The only power you have left is to stop having kids. Besides, babies serve as distractions (as do IPods, tv, movies, video games, dummifying reality t.v., petty and empty love songs with zero political content) so the Fed and national governments of Western Democracies (Democracy is an antiquated notion) can fly under the radar, and giving THEM, more born tax-payers. New people, new tax payers. Stop doing what THEY want and prove you are not willing to continue to lay down in fear and silence.
A civil war is 34 years past due, but you all sit there doing nothing, Americans! You've grown spoiled and complaisant. Blame the sell out baby-boomers that were 'onto something' in the 60's, yet so sold out in the end.
This world isn't a place for new life, I wish I wasn't alive anymore.
A person is either lucky or smart. I'm smart, and most definitely not lucky -- but have legendary endurance.
Get smart or die.

Shannon C.| 3.20.11 @ 1:49PM

One more note: as our fore fathers created a society called the United States of America based on a separation of church and state, we need to create a new constitution separating corporations and state.

saint john| 8.26.11 @ 11:41PM

Why would you allow your life to end with your personal death? So much talent, such vast experience, the insightfulness you possess and refuse to pass along. I wish I had a parent like you and I hope you work out your "I wish I wasn't alive anymore"ness. I like to think that my children and grandchildren are my greatest gift to this 'civilization'. Yet I share your cynicism and skepticism. As a boomer who quit when I just got tired of fighting the system, I am sickened by what I see developing as time goes on. But maybe, just maybe, if enough people like you have self-conscious families ready to carry on, well.....

Don L.| 3.22.11 @ 8:24PM

Everyone is searching for the cure from the economic chronic illness that had it etiology during the years of Baby Bush and was not uncovered until it manifested into crisis just days after the '08 election. The savior of this present maelstrom will be those who are able to trouble- shoot a deeply pathological system unravelling. Time to stop the focus on growth and capitalize our efforts on quiet observation and weeding our national 'garden' of systems (that create political and economic disequilibrium): whether the laissez faire policies towards mega corporate structure (the banks, etc), upper elite entitlements, ignoring a distraught dysfunctional health care system and replacing it with something that might support population health so ...we don't slip into a third world country with infectious diseases devastating the health of our population and our progeny when we are long gone from the earth. We need a post-secondary educational system that replicates what Northwestern Univ. had in the '60s whereby college students pay for their education via a cooperative system: going to school one year and working across the country in whatever community, state, or federal infrastructure needs their labor (an infrastructure which is desperately in need of intensive reconstruction). Revising political parties and rules on lobbying, forbidding international lobbying of elected officials, creating rules on transparency for all elected officials, doing a cost/benefit analysis of every US intervention abroad and presenting this to the American people, having every elected representative explain how they voted in DC and in state legislatures as a monthly report for all constituents...we have so many miles to go but it only begins with one first step.
We must not carry our seasonal affective political/social depression we are suffering in this era to proliferate into the next eras...wise actions and positivism can save us and give all of us some peace in our brief existences on this fragile earth.

saint john| 8.25.11 @ 2:09AM

The events in Madison show the possibility of a genuine class consciousness, if properly cultivated. This would return order to the economy through rule by the middle class. A genuine American polity.This is the real economic issue trying to take shape in the U.S. today, if only the corporate media were not in control of the intellectual capital, (if one can even call it that). Invisible hands, malthusian petry dishes, and other silly metaphors are always counterproductive during critical socio/politico/economic conversation. Business cycles are nothing more than periodic and systematic transfers of wealth from the bottom up. This we have witnessed countless times in the so-called post WWII era. In fact wars serve the same purpose, engendering a false sense of unity between the working class and the moneyed elites. Laffer et. al. simply turned their charts 180 degrees in the cruelest turn of phrase in recent history. Surplus always "trickles" up at a high rate of speed.. Counterintuitive? Hence the danger of metaphor. Recycling the same old arguments and superimposing them over the same old recurring problems is exactly what the one percenters need to keep the laws of economy as they are (mis) understood by their proxy intellectuals time over time.. Whether through sheer ignorance or through a tacit or contractual agreement between the economic "schools" in the universities and their coporate masters, it is high time that science
man up and take a peak behind the curtain for once and face the world as it is, not as it ought to be, as it is wished to be, or as principles dictate it to be. Only then are the authentic intellectuals able to see the need for a complete cultural change in the workplace as well as the economic arena of debate. It is in the name of human progress that such a turn of history could and must take place.

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