The Tennessee gubernatorial primary is six months away, but
things are already heating up in a race where Republicans can
take another statehouse back from the Democrats. More importantly
to conservatives, the race is pitting a classic, grassroots
conservative, Congressman Zach Wamp, against
moderate to liberal establishment Knoxville Mayor Bill
Haslam, who is banking on family name recognition and
family money to carry him over the finish line.
Haslam has committed untold millions of his family money in
what up until a couple weeks ago was considered a mediocre
campaign. He held a disastrous press briefing in Nashville late
last year where he was unable to state a clear position on any of
the issues reporters asked him to comment on, and has thus far
refused to release his federal tax returns as other candidates
have. A now-famous YouTube video only
exacerbated the perception that Haslam was not ready for a
promotion beyond mayor or a job back at his father’s
business.
Then, a week before the Winter Olympics, Haslam’s campaign
guru, Tom Ingram, unveiled a splashy TV ad
featuring the candidate and others walking around Tennessee with
big red umbrellas, raising comparisons to either Citigroup or
Mary Poppins advertisements. Regardless, the ad, which Haslam ran
during the Olympics at a cost of almost a million dollars, is
memorable. Haslam continues to trail Wamp in most polls, but
almost immediately, as Haslam opened his checkbook for the ad
buys, friendly media outlets began touting Haslam’s perceived
momentum and portraying him as the presumptive winner in the GOP
primary.
Beyond Wamp, who has led most polls for months, Tennessee’s
Republican lieutenant governor, Ron Ramsey and
local district attorney Bill Gibbons, are also
seeking the nomination. Ramsey is popular with among some
conservatives and members of the state party establishment, and
Gibbons has been a feisty campaigner.
But in a state where the tea party movement has strong
roots — Nashville has been the epicenter of several grassroots
conservative and tea party conferences over the past year — many
national conservatives believe Wamp has out-worked Haslam and the
rest of the field.
“Bill believes a checkbook and some name recognition of the
family name will get you two-thirds of the way to the
nomination,” says a long-time observer of Tennessee politics.
“I’d compare Haslam’s approach this year to [Harold] Ford’s
Senate run a few years ago. I think most folks are ready for some
new blood.” Harold Ford, Jr. ran a lackluster
campaign for the Senate in 2006, in which he had superior name
recognition and actually led in a number of polls throughout the
campaign against Republican Bob Corker. But Ford
was perceived not to be working the campaign trail terribly hard,
and in the end lost the race by less than three percentage
points.
The presumed Democrat nominee in the gubernatorial race is
businessman Mike McWherter, who is also being
challenged by state senator Jim Kyle and former
state legislator Kim McMillan. And some
Democrats say they are actually working to help Haslam overcome
the energy behind Wamp to give their man a better shot at the
governor’s mansion. “Given where things are going politically
around the country, the state party would prefer Haslam over
Wamp,” says a DNC media consultant. “Wamp has worked hard on the
grassroots and tea party types over the past few months and has
the energy there. Haslam is running your typical Republican,
establishment campaign. We’ll take that over the tea-bagger
grassroots types this election cycle.”
