Political Hay
Obamacare Faces Tough Road in the House
The prospects for comprehensive health care legislation remain dim, despite this week’s political theater.
President Obama on Monday removed speculation about whether he would scale back his health care ambitions in the current political environment, releasing a plan that increases taxes, spending, and regulation even more than the Senate health care bill that has been overwhelmingly rejected by the public.
The brazen move, coming just days before a scheduled health care summit, was accompanied by a renewed willingness to use the reconciliation procedure to ram a health care bill through the Senate with just 51 votes. Taken together, some commentators see a growing momentum for finishing the health care legislation that was put on life support after Sen. Scott Brown’s surprise victory in Massachusetts.
But regardless of what happens at this week’s superfluous summit, it’s difficult to see how Democrats cobble together enough votes to pass a final health care bill in the House.
Back in November, in a much better political environment for Democrats, Speaker Nancy Pelosi was able to muster only a narrow 220 to 215 majority in the House to pass its version of health care legislation. Since then, Rep. Joseph Cao, the one Republican who voted for the bill initially, has indicated he wouldn’t do so again because of objections to the abortion language. In addition, Florida’s Robert Wexler unexpectedly resigned, Rep. Neil Abercrombie announced plans to retire at the end of this month to run for governor of Hawaii and Rep. John Murtha passed away. Taken together, that brings Pelosi down to 216 votes — which would be insufficient to pass a health care bill.
The Obama administration has pushed the argument that Democrats will be attacked on health care anyway, so they may as well pass a bill so they have an accomplishment to run on. “We own the bill and the health-care votes,” Obama adviser David Plouffe wrote in the Washington Post after Brown’s win. “We need to get some of the upside.”
The problem with this analysis is that even if one were to accept the fact that jamming through a massive and highly unpopular piece of legislation could be a political winner for the Democratic Party as a whole, it doesn’t mean that it’s necessarily good for each individual Democratic member of Congress. This is especially true for the Democrats who hold seats in conservative districts. While some liberals have noted that the failure of Hillarycare didn’t save Blue Dog Democrats in 1994, in that year, the bill never came to an actual vote on the House floor. By contrast, last year 39 Democrats went on the record and voted against the House bill. They will be in a much stronger place to counter any Republican attacks by holding firm in their opposition than if they flip and support the bill at the behest of Obama and Pelosi. A deeper look at votes by Congressional district makes this even more apparent.
Of the 39 Democrats who voted against the House health care bill, 31 of them were elected in districts that went for John McCain in 2008, according to a TAS analysis. One of the Democratic “no” votes, Rep. Parker Griffith of Alabama, has subsequently switched parties. Given that a Republican who campaigned on being a vote against the health care bill was just elected to fill the Senate seat once held by Ted Kennedy in a state that went for Obama by 26 points, it’s hard to see why anybody in a McCain district who already voted “no” would decide switch their vote to “yes.”
While Obama won the districts of the remaining eight “no” votes, in six cases, he won by only single digits, making them potentially competitive races this time around. And a closer look at several members who represent these areas are not very encouraging to proponents of Obamacare.
For instance Rep. John Barrow, representing a Georgia district that Obama carried by 9 points, called for hitting the “reset button” after Brown’s win. “I don’t think we need a comprehensive, sweeping overhaul of our system,” he told the local Effingham Herald. “I think what we need is incremental change.”
North Carolina Rep. Larry Kissell, who represents a North Carolina district that Obama carried by five points, voted against the health care bill in November citing cuts to Medicare — which still exist in the current bill. A January poll by Democratic firm Public Policy Polling found overwhelming opposition to the bill among his constituents, and concluded that “Kissell’s no vote appears to have insulated him from some of the ill will toward national Democrats in the district.”
Freshman Democratic Rep. Glenn Nye of Virginia won in a district that Obama carried by just two points. In last November’s governor’s race, the same district went for Republican Bob McDonnell by a 24-point margin.
There are two Democrats who voted “no” the first time around that come from solidly Democratic districts, but neither of them is likely to change his vote. Rep. Dennis Kucinich is a committed single-payer advocate who viewed the first bill (which included a public option) as too favorable to private insurance, and he’s attacked the Senate version as a handout to insurance companies. Rep. Artur Davis is now running statewide to be governor of Alabama, and not only has he maintained his opposition to the health care bill, but he has attacked his Democratic rival in the primary for supporting it.
This analysis, keep in mind, is under the best-case scenario in which Pelosi hangs onto every vote she originally had. In reality, Pelosi could have a tough time convincing nervous Democrats in moderate districts who voted against the bill the first time around to vote for it a second time.
The biggest problem she faces is that President Obama’s proposal maintains the abortion provision in the Senate bill, rejecting Rep. Bart Stupak’s more restrictive language. When the bill passed the House the first time around, 41 Democrats voted for the health care bill only after voting for the Stupak amendment. Any of them could explain switching to a “no” vote on a final bill by citing abortion funding. Stupak himself has said there are at least 10 to 12 Democrats who voted for the bill the first time who would vote against it if it didn’t include his amendment (he reiterated Tuesday morning that the Senate abortion language adopted by Obama was still “unacceptable”). One of his co-sponsors, Rep. Brad Ellsworth, said at the time that he was only able to vote for the bill after the Stupak language was adopted, and he’s now running for Senate in Indiana, where a Rasmussen poll taken last month shows voters oppose the health care legislation by a 23-point margin.
Pelosi will have to make up for any votes she loses by picking off members among the 39 Democrats who already voted “no.”
None of this is to say that it’s literally impossible for Pelosi to find the votes necessary to pass a health care bill. There are several retiring members who may be willing to vote for it because they don’t have to stand for reelection, some may be won over by provisions in the latest version of the bill, and a few may be willing to take suicide votes for the team. But this week’s political theater shouldn’t obscure how difficult it will be for Obama to get a comprehensive health care bill across the finish line.
About the Author
Philip Klein is The American Spectator’s Washington correspondent. You can follow him on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/Philipaklein
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Siegfried X| 2.23.10 @ 6:49AM
It has become very simple: do they or don't they?
The Democrats now realize that they are on the deck of the sinking Titanic, so fighting over deck chairs might not seem as important to them as it did before Scott Brown.
Either they pass THIS left-wing health care bill, or risk waiting decades for another chance.
Jon B| 3.8.10 @ 11:21AM
HMO's own parties in both aisles. This is the Bill THEY wanted. Obamacare was never even on the table. I believe he prefers Single Payer, and settled for the Public Option, and both were discarded long ago.
HMO's, Republicans and a small group of Democrats fought very hard to get this bill favoring HMO's. I find it ironic that Republicans now have to vote against the Bill they essentially fought for in the first place, almost solely in order to score purely political points
The current bill is what the HMO's wanted, and why they spent $1 billion on lobbyists and political campaigns in the last 2 years alone.
Ret. Marine| 2.23.10 @ 6:51AM
And so the long knives are coming out to cut back the wiskers of the weak. This might be a good omen, other than the fact the progressives in the democrat party are just there to get some thing, any thing passed for the sake of this pretenders one term.
What seems to be the problem. The R-party is not likely to stop this legislation, so why the meet with the pretender-n-theif? Is it me or do others find this pretender being , oh how shall I put it, dishonest yet again. Why did this pretender put this piece of trash on the internet ahead of the meet with the GOP. I don't think this legislation will ever get passed and the reasons are quite apparent, it's a boondoggle plain and simple.
We the People have spoken. If the demonrat party must use the nuclear option to pass this monster, that alone should be a red flag from the start. KILL this BILL. Bury it and tend to getting folks back to work. I pitty this poor fool we have as a president, he's just arrogant enough to think it's still about him. It's not, it's the economy stupid.
JP| 2.23.10 @ 7:24AM
Last weekend when the President announced his new WH version of the bill, I thought much the same thing. Most people still are focused on the Senate; however, the bill to be reconciled is the Senate version, which now sits in Pelosi's office. The WH version is just a smoke screen, which serves to make the Senate version look "moderate". Both bills are just different flavors of crap, and the cards dealt to the Speaker do not look good.
In reality, Pelosi has barely 200 votes to begin with. But this time she has nothing to offer her House members. They must accept the Senate version without making any changes. Thier other alternative is to vote either yes or no to Obama's WH version. If Pelosi can muster 218 votes in that verions, it must then go to the Senate.
The Bliar House Summit, has now been made into a ridiculous kubuki dance. The President ensured that the GOP will not contenence compromise, as his just released WH version slammed the door shut on any GOP idea, and it made worse all of the problems of the Senate version (higher premiums, more federal mandates, more subsidies). The GOP leadership now must realise that the President intends to ambush them in front of the cameras.
All of that this Blair House spin and show accomplishes is to hide the fact that the real contest isn't between the GOP and Dems, but between Liberal Dems and Far Left Dems. The ball is squarely in thier court. Either Pelosi has the 218 votes or she doesn't. There is nothing the GOP can do;
We all pray that she doesn't have the votes.
Jim O'Brien| 2.23.10 @ 8:03AM
Congressional Demos have everything to lose and nothing to gain by supporting Obama -- by shoving a health care bill down the throats of their constituents.
Lullaby's, Legends and Lies| 2.23.10 @ 8:06AM
The Republicans should be prepared while they attend this summit, when it becomes apparent, that the whole thing is a set up by the Administration, to get up, and walk out en masse in front of the cameras. The American People, especially those who oppose this Bill, know this is a set up, and will support them if they do that. I just hope they're smart enough to do it, when it becomes apparent that this summit is not a discussion (as promised), but just another speech by the President, with another new deadline, and another set of lies, to force feed this Bill on the American People.
Strike, Strike, Strike!!
Copyleft| 2.23.10 @ 8:25AM
As should be painfully obvious by now, anything that gets past Obama's tepid "support" and the wrangling and deal-cutting of Congress won't qualify as healthcare "reform" in any way.
The fact that single-payer public insurance was removed from consideration from the outset made it clear what this was... another moneymaking scheme for the healthcare industry and its insurance lobbyists. No wonder real Americans (and even many conservatives!) are disgusted by it!
Ryan| 2.23.10 @ 9:48AM
Would you consider HSA expansion "reform?"
Would you consider dropping state lines "reform?"
Would you consider portability "reform?"
Would you consider groups getting together to negotiate prices "reform?"
ds80| 2.23.10 @ 8:31AM
This phrase stood out for me: "they may as well pass a bill so they have an accomplishment to run on".
Passing a bill despite overwhelming constituent opposition is a hollow "accomplishment" they'll be held accountable for by those same constituents.
But hey - if that's what the pea-brained Libs are banking on, I can't wait to refresh the Tree of Liberty in November.
Old Guy| 2.23.10 @ 1:47PM
Has it occurred to anyone else that with the new jobs bill/stimulus and the un-spent money from the first farce, that there will be billions, starting in about August, to pour into the shaky districts so that the folks can go home, point to the loot, and get reelected by the morons who have the sole qualification for a vote of, "How much free federal money did Good 'ol Joe get for us this time?"
Pingback| 2.23.10 @ 10:01AM
Wonk Room » The WonkLine: February 23, 2010 links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
LogicalUS| 2.23.10 @ 10:13AM
Seriously, it appears as though Barack Obama is as mentally unstable as his mother.
How else to explain that this man is apparently stuck in 1976? Nuclear freeze nonsense and now price controls on insurance companies? You know getting stuck in a time lapse like this is a symptom of several mental illnesses?
And Barry shows obvious signs of being devoid and out of touch with reality?
Pingback| 2.23.10 @ 10:15AM
The American Spectator : Obamacare Faces Tough Road in the House links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Pingback| 2.23.10 @ 10:15AM
The American Spectator : Obamacare Faces Tough Road in the House links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Dave | 2.23.10 @ 10:24AM
"I don't think we need a comprehensive, sweeping overhaul of our system. I think what we need is ... incremental change."
- Rep. John Barrow, Ga.
What B.S. Barrow is really saying is what hard left liberals in Congress have been whispering for decades: "Look, let's not take the sheep's freedom away in one fell swoop. Let's be smart about it and snip it away little by little ... bit by bit until the OLD sheep die off and the YOUNGER ones are so indoctrinated, dumb down and brain dead that by the time any dung lands on the fan (if ever) they'll be a lot easier to control and contain. Meanwhile, we'll all still manage to get re-elected. So, let's just move it along nice and slooow like a terminal cancer that takes years to kill off the patient. Now, that's the smart way to go."
OK, your thoughts?
sdfs| 2.23.10 @ 11:37AM
Depressing interpretation but distinctly possible. So it all comes down to electing truly honest, principled representatives who have the greater good of the country and her people at heart. We have to find them, they must be willing to run, and hopefully the electorate will understand and vote appropriately.
In today's "win at any cost, I'm never wrong, I'll sue 'um for what I deserve" atmosphere from which spring the lawyers we elect to office, the odds are against us.
JP| 2.23.10 @ 1:22PM
The looming financial and job crisis should take top priority -not health care or insurance reform. Congress could go back to the drawing board; but time is short. The Dems know at best that next January they will barely have a working majority. Pelosi and Reid may not even have jobs this same time next year. There is no incentive for them to compromise. Just the same, the GOP has no incentive to compromise this session, as they may be very close to reaching parity in Congress by Jan 2011. Why reach deals now from a position of weakness, when all they have to do is wait until next year and negociate from a position of greater strength?
But, if next year inflation is around 10% or unemployment persists above 8%, the political pressure will be totally focused on getting the economy on track and spending reductions.
Time has almost run out for ObamaCare. Faster, please.
Pingback| 2.23.10 @ 10:58AM
Spartanburg Tea Party | Obamacare Faces Tough Road in the House links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Yosemeti Sam| 2.23.10 @ 11:08AM
Re column - "Is our Children Learning?"
To American Spectator:
Appears I strike Liberal/Leftist nerves.
Do you or do you not validate email addresses
with posts?
You let an asshole - pardon the shorthand -
speak as if he were me.
Get your AS act together!
Do you have hacker firewalls - at all?
If not - moving on!
AS Webmaster - what's up with this compromise?
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Democrat Stupak on Obama's Plan: "Unacceptable" | CentristNet links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Rmm| 2.23.10 @ 2:46PM
These Demos, what can you say about them. Go ahead and play the recon card and sign your political death certificate. Every one of the bunch who would foist this end-around on ' their ' constituents should be summarily fired come the fall elections. None so much as Madame Pelosi .
Pingback| 2.23.10 @ 3:17PM
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Pingback| 2.23.10 @ 3:20PM
Boehner calls Obama health-care meeting a ‘charade,’ but says GOP will attend to prev links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Deborah D | 2.23.10 @ 3:44PM
I hope Mr. Klein is right about facing a tough road in the House. This is the bill that won't die. Let's bury this zombie. Can't we voodoo it or something?
John3| 2.23.10 @ 3:46PM
Mr. Obama is clearly DESPERATE. What he is saying is simply: Pass a healthcare bill (even if it is bad and immoral) because this is our (the Democrats) only chance to (maybe) shine, because we are such fearless politicians! Mr. Obama can not go back on his word and certainly he can not retreat because that would clearly be accepting the he is wrong (and he is wrong!--but in this circus, everything is relative and every method is (machiavellian) ok).
John3| 2.23.10 @ 3:50PM
Follow up: What kind of American History do they teach at Ivy League Schools nowadays? It seems that most of these liberal politicians are clueless about what has worked before---they keep on pushing agendas that caused extinction of regimes (remember the roman empire, the soviet union, hitler's Germany).
John3| 2.23.10 @ 3:52PM
Can anybody tell me what he meant by this: pass the Senate bill unchanged “would be a leap of faith in an agnostic community.”
Dave Part II | 2.23.10 @ 4:20PM
A few weeks ago, I was recalling O.J. Simpson's '95 murder trial and the day prosecutors made the bone headed decision to have him try on that pair of bloody gloves found on his property during the initial police investigation. When I heard Simpson was going to be asked to put them on in a move to prove they did in fact ... fit, I thought it was a dumb idea. Why? Well, the prosecution already had more than enough forensic evidence that Juice was the perp, and to have this courtroom stunt would only provide him with an opening for potential theatrics and minipulation.
And that's exactly what they got.
As Orenthal confessed in his alleged fictional book "If I Did It", he writes that the day he tried on those gloves in open court, he simply expanded his fingers and thumbs just enough to make it appear he was struggling to pull them on and show the jury they weren't the right size for his hands. And that's what I saw that morning while watching it play out on daytime television. As he pulled, tugged and then held his gloved hands toward the twelve, I said to myself ... "Touchdown, Simpson."
I'm no legal expert, but you didn't need to be one to see what he was doing. Problem was, it gave the jury just enough excuse to think, "Hey, they don't fit; we gotta' aquit." OK, maybe that was Johnnie Cochran, but the message was delivered. It was classic Ali "Rope-A-Dope." And it worked...on the dopes.
Which now leads me to President Obama's invitation to Republicans to join him at Blair House this Thursday in a so-called bipartisan effort to hear, negotiate and debate their ideas on nationalizing America's health care system. My first question was ... why? According to what he said from jump, the prez has no intention of dropping any major parts of his original plan, much less starting over from scratch. Matter of fact, all he's done to date is rework the old one. So again, why bother showing up when he'll act on little, if any, of what the good guys will propose? As a matter of fact, Obama said something about rejecting anything from Republicans that sounded, to his tin ear ... petulant. In other words "It's my way or ... thththththt!"
I guess we'll just have to keep our fingers crossed and see how it shakes out.
Meanwhile, my hope is the posse white hats don't lose any of their recently gained mojo by falling for a full round of Obama rope-a-dopes. If so, they might end up like that thing spiders do with flies.
"Is it lunch yet?"
- Dave Part II
Pingback| 2.23.10 @ 5:12PM
The American Spectator : Obamacare Faces Tough Road in the House links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Pingback| 2.23.10 @ 5:12PM
The American Spectator : Obamacare Faces Tough Road in the House links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Shamus| 2.23.10 @ 7:34PM
Obama is pretty much deranged. If he had two brain cells to rub together, then he'd know that the public hates his bill and that passing it will ensure that they vote his party out of office. But he continues down the same path anyway.
Pingback| 2.23.10 @ 8:33PM
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Pingback| 2.23.10 @ 9:26PM
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Pingback| 2.23.10 @ 9:40PM
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All Spun Out| 2.24.10 @ 3:27AM
Pride precedes the fall. For Obama, passing his health destruction bill is all about his pride. For the demwits in Congress, passing Obama's health destruction bill is all about . . . Obama's pride.
Obama can keep on residing at the White House after elections this fall, while his demwit minions take Obama's fall for him.
And it will be a fall to end all falls. Then there will be some real action in town, starting with long overdue committee hearings with subpoenas out the wahzoo to get to the bottom of hanky-panky shady dealings, czar tomfoolery, and backroom cronyism in this administration. The IG offices will be very busy, and freed from Chicago-style intimidation tactics.
Ah, change America really needs is a'coming!
Richard Baker| 2.24.10 @ 3:54AM
The Kenyan calls himself educated and intelligent? I've seen more maturity and reason in my 14 year old students.
Paul| 2.24.10 @ 4:51PM
When did he refer to himself as educated and intelligent?
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By his actions and those fawning statements of his supporters. Notice how he sometimes juts his chin ala Mussolini. That kind of body language speaks volumes, don't you think?
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