When Massachusetts Republican sensation Scott Brown is finally
seated, the Democrats will lose their filibuster-proof Senate
majority. Next might they be reduced to minority status in the
upper chamber?
On the face of it, it’s extremely unlikely. Six years after the
last election cycle that favored Republican Senate candidates,
the GOP has more ground to defend. They have retirements in shaky
states like Ohio, New Hampshire, Missouri, and Kentucky.
Republicans are eleven seats in the hole, which is quite a lot to
make up for even in a Democratic president’s first midterm
election.
Quietly, however, the Republicans have built a much stronger
field of Senate candidates than the Democrats. Candidate
recruitment has favored the GOP even in blue states. Beau Biden
took a pass on his dad’s old Senate seat in Delaware; Michael
Castle, the state’s only Republican powerhouse, is running.
Democratic Sen. Byron Dorgan is retiring; popular GOP Gov. John
Hoeven has declared his candidacy.
On Tuesday, Illinois Republicans nominated Rep. Mark Kirk, their
strongest general-election candidate, for Barack Obama’s old
Senate seat. The Democrats narrowly went with state Treasurer
Alexi Giannoulias, who has already been roughed up by his primary
opponents over family ties to Broadway Bank, a troubled financial
institution under scrutiny from federal regulators and under
order to replenish $76 million in cash reserves.
National Republicans appear to have coaxed former Sen. Dan Coats
into the race against Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh in Indiana. Coats
retired from the Senate rather than face Bayh in 1998. But the
Republican clearly thinks the time is right to take Bayh on now.
In Pennsylvania, Arlen Specter thought he had a better chance
against former Club for Growth President Pat Toomey in a general
election than a Republican primary. The newly minted Democrat is
14 points behind Toomey in the polls.
Even in states where Republicans have failed to recruit
first-tier candidates, Democrats are trailing. Senate Majority
Leader Harry Reid is down by double digits in Nevada, even though
GOP recruiters were unable to talk Rep. Dean Heller into the
race. Although no Republican of Mike Huckabee’s stature is
thinking of challenging Sen. Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas, she is
already trailing by double digits too.
Republicans face contentious primaries in Florida, Kentucky,
California, and New Hampshire. But in most cases, either
candidate would be competitive in the general election. The
toughest of these is California, where Democratic Sen. Barbara
Boxer’s numbers are not awe-inspiring. Republicans are even or
slightly ahead in Ohio and Missouri, both considered possible
Democratic pick-ups initially.
“Republicans are solidly ahead to take at least five seats now
held by Democrats — in North Dakota, Delaware, Nevada, Arkansas
and Pennsylvania,” writes pollster John Zogby. “Five more are now
considered winnable — Colorado, Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana and
even liberal New York. Two other races, in California and
Washington, are tightening daily.”
To win back the Senate, Republicans would have to run the table:
capture all the at-risk Democratic seats while retaining all of
their own. That’s a tall order. But in recent election cycles,
Senate races have overwhelmingly favored one party over the
other. In 2004, Colorado’s Ken Salazar was the only Democrat to
win a competitive Senate race. Two years later, Tennessee’s Bob
Corker was the only Republican to do so. Democrats effectively
ran the table in 2008, falling short only in their reach states
of Georgia, Mississippi, and Kentucky.
When the Republicans were in trouble, Democrats could easily
recruit candidates like Jim Webb, Jon Tester, and Mark Warner.
Now that the pendulum is swinging in the opposite direction,
Republicans can make appeals to Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin,
George Pataki in New York, and Dino Rossi in Washington. Consider
it a snowball effect Republicans must hope turns into an
avalanche.
So far the only race the Democrats have likely taken off the
table is Connecticut. Sen. Chris Dodd was a deeply unpopular
incumbent with almost no hope of winning re-election. When Dodd
stepped aside in favor of state Attorney General Richard
Blumenthal, the Democrats’ hopes of retaining the seat were aided
immensely. But even there, the Republican field still includes a
popular former congressman and a former wrestling executive who
can finance her own campaign to the tune of tens of millions of
dollars.
The national GOP still has huge problems. It is benefiting more
from luck and Democratic missteps than anything positive
Republicans have done. But some of those problems — Republicans
are leaderless and directionless — are actually positives now
that Democrats are in decline. There is no clear leader like
George W. Bush or Newt Gingrich to attack; there are no
identifiable policies like Iraq or “risky Social Security
schemes” to campaign against.
Can Republicans retake the Senate this November? A smart man
would have to bet against it.
Of course, a smart man would have bet against Scott Brown.
