Political Hay
Running the Table
Can Republicans retake the Senate? A lot would have to continue to go right.
When Massachusetts Republican sensation Scott Brown is finally seated, the Democrats will lose their filibuster-proof Senate majority. Next might they be reduced to minority status in the upper chamber?
On the face of it, it’s extremely unlikely. Six years after the last election cycle that favored Republican Senate candidates, the GOP has more ground to defend. They have retirements in shaky states like Ohio, New Hampshire, Missouri, and Kentucky. Republicans are eleven seats in the hole, which is quite a lot to make up for even in a Democratic president’s first midterm election.
Quietly, however, the Republicans have built a much stronger field of Senate candidates than the Democrats. Candidate recruitment has favored the GOP even in blue states. Beau Biden took a pass on his dad’s old Senate seat in Delaware; Michael Castle, the state’s only Republican powerhouse, is running. Democratic Sen. Byron Dorgan is retiring; popular GOP Gov. John Hoeven has declared his candidacy.
On Tuesday, Illinois Republicans nominated Rep. Mark Kirk, their strongest general-election candidate, for Barack Obama’s old Senate seat. The Democrats narrowly went with state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, who has already been roughed up by his primary opponents over family ties to Broadway Bank, a troubled financial institution under scrutiny from federal regulators and under order to replenish $76 million in cash reserves.
National Republicans appear to have coaxed former Sen. Dan Coats into the race against Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh in Indiana. Coats retired from the Senate rather than face Bayh in 1998. But the Republican clearly thinks the time is right to take Bayh on now. In Pennsylvania, Arlen Specter thought he had a better chance against former Club for Growth President Pat Toomey in a general election than a Republican primary. The newly minted Democrat is 14 points behind Toomey in the polls.
Even in states where Republicans have failed to recruit first-tier candidates, Democrats are trailing. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is down by double digits in Nevada, even though GOP recruiters were unable to talk Rep. Dean Heller into the race. Although no Republican of Mike Huckabee’s stature is thinking of challenging Sen. Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas, she is already trailing by double digits too.
Republicans face contentious primaries in Florida, Kentucky, California, and New Hampshire. But in most cases, either candidate would be competitive in the general election. The toughest of these is California, where Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer’s numbers are not awe-inspiring. Republicans are even or slightly ahead in Ohio and Missouri, both considered possible Democratic pick-ups initially.
“Republicans are solidly ahead to take at least five seats now held by Democrats — in North Dakota, Delaware, Nevada, Arkansas and Pennsylvania,” writes pollster John Zogby. “Five more are now considered winnable — Colorado, Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana and even liberal New York. Two other races, in California and Washington, are tightening daily.”
To win back the Senate, Republicans would have to run the table: capture all the at-risk Democratic seats while retaining all of their own. That’s a tall order. But in recent election cycles, Senate races have overwhelmingly favored one party over the other. In 2004, Colorado’s Ken Salazar was the only Democrat to win a competitive Senate race. Two years later, Tennessee’s Bob Corker was the only Republican to do so. Democrats effectively ran the table in 2008, falling short only in their reach states of Georgia, Mississippi, and Kentucky.
When the Republicans were in trouble, Democrats could easily recruit candidates like Jim Webb, Jon Tester, and Mark Warner. Now that the pendulum is swinging in the opposite direction, Republicans can make appeals to Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin, George Pataki in New York, and Dino Rossi in Washington. Consider it a snowball effect Republicans must hope turns into an avalanche.
So far the only race the Democrats have likely taken off the table is Connecticut. Sen. Chris Dodd was a deeply unpopular incumbent with almost no hope of winning re-election. When Dodd stepped aside in favor of state Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, the Democrats’ hopes of retaining the seat were aided immensely. But even there, the Republican field still includes a popular former congressman and a former wrestling executive who can finance her own campaign to the tune of tens of millions of dollars.
The national GOP still has huge problems. It is benefiting more from luck and Democratic missteps than anything positive Republicans have done. But some of those problems — Republicans are leaderless and directionless — are actually positives now that Democrats are in decline. There is no clear leader like George W. Bush or Newt Gingrich to attack; there are no identifiable policies like Iraq or “risky Social Security schemes” to campaign against.
Can Republicans retake the Senate this November? A smart man would have to bet against it.
Of course, a smart man would have bet against Scott Brown.
About the Author
W. James Antle, III, author of the new book Devouring Freedom: Can Big Government Ever Be Stopped?, is editor of the Daily Caller News Foundation and a senior editor of The American Spectator. You can follow him on Twitter @jimantle.
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Kelly Staples| 2.4.10 @ 6:59AM
Gee, "Brother Mike" Huckabee still has stature? That's real news Mr. Antle . . .
breeze| 2.5.10 @ 2:43AM
Brother Mike" Huckabee still has stature?
a smart man would have bet against Scott Brown
we are not smart ?
http://www.udtek.com/dvdrw-drive-c-5.html
Ted Agnew| 2.4.10 @ 7:24AM
Kirk's ACU rating is no better than 50%. He is a cap and taxer, (though he went John Kerry on the issue for the GOP Primary).
At the end of the day, with RINO's like Kirk, does it really matter?
republicanblack| 2.4.10 @ 3:19PM
You are right Ted, especially with the RINO thing, but we need a new message that's all something that will work like this
http://bit.ly/republicanmanifesto
not people like sarah palin who takes money and does stuff like
http://bit.ly/aakf9Z
We need a change
Ted Agnew| 2.4.10 @ 3:26PM
I agree we need changes. We don't need finger licking RINO's that vote for Cap & Trade before they vote against it. Kirk's answer as to why was insulting and epitomized a blow with the wind RINO. While taking the Messiah's seat would be sweet Kirk will really have to sell me hard. The record is lacking.
Cap&Trade;, like taxes, is a Holy Grail issue.
Nick| 2.4.10 @ 7:41AM
Ted,
50% is greater than 0%
Melvin| 2.4.10 @ 8:02AM
As the author has noted, the Republican Party has absolutely no mojo.
The mid-terms are in how many months and the Republicans are still worried about being worried.
The leadership is wrapped up with minutia of petty issues that are important to the segmented groups within the party.
As many have repeated and their message has fallen of deaf ears within the Republican Party leadership, "Go back to the core values that appeal to all Americans instead of just
Republicans.
But, oh no! The Party still has old John McCain who is more worried about his silly ass legacy in how he will be remembered as a progressive instead of being a leader with bold and decisive ideas of fiscal responsibility and tax reform.
The Republican Party is trotting out old political war horses and repackaging them. Dammit! we don't need old ideas, this Country needs new people with new ideas, and have the energy to take the fight to the Liberal Democrats not chase them around on hover- rounds with oxygen bottles on the back.
LQQKY| 2.4.10 @ 8:29AM
The Republicans will stand a very good chance if they run true conservative candidates, not RINO's. The RNC policy of supporting a candidate because "they can win," regardless of ideology is one of the reasons they are in the hole!
Just keeping a seat is not good enought as one can see from the current state of affairs. The Republican electorate is no longer willing to go along with this philosophy e.g. the Crist child in Florida.
If we run true conservative republican candidates, who knows what the election will bring us. The "candidate would be competitive in the general election" philosophy is no longer an option.
Ryan| 2.4.10 @ 8:33AM
Taking the senate is a long shot that is going to have to take near-perfect campaigns in every race and the right weather in the right places at the right time. I don't see it happening, but the Republicans will likely pick up a few seats simply by attrition. Yeah, we'll have to deal with a few RINO's, but I think that Brown is going to be the worst of the lot (we'll be complaining about him in 6 months to a year).
Melvin| 2.4.10 @ 8:42AM
Ryan, you do have a good point, but Scott's alternative was completely unthinkable and the voter of MA knew it.
If Scott Brown steps on his wee wee, then fine, the MA voters will send him back to posing for Cosmo.
MA voters have now come back into the sun out from the dark aura of the Kennedy's and I hope they'll have no qualms about voting out the louts.
Ryan| 2.4.10 @ 8:47AM
I completely agree, and there are going to be plenty of lesser-of-two-evils situations arise.
blackwatch| 2.5.10 @ 1:01AM
okay we need Senators who we agree with 80+% of the time. don't sweat the fringe issues.
its all about over spending and over taxation and the energy security & national secuirty matrix.
Get that right and we can win the support of 50% of the voters.
Ken (Old Texican)| 2.4.10 @ 9:34AM
Antle III, Texican VI here.
You Beltway Boys just haven't gotten the memo yet, have you? There really is a hurricane ginning up out here....and it hasn't even had "landfall" yet.
You seem almost as out of touch as the NR party guys.
I get an urgent $$ letter from our fine Senator, Cornyn almost every week.
I send him a polite reply..."not interested" each time.
We at TEAM America www.myteamusa.org are selecting "fighters" whether in the House or Senate, and where ever they hail from.
I will tell you what is going to be fascinating to me as we move toward the Republican primaries; what are our sitting Senators going to do with their filibuster ability now?
If I were there...heh heh...(evil smile)...I would pick some fights...soonest.
If they don't, they will never be forgiven. November would then be likely the last "free elections" on the federal level before massive upheavals nation wide.
Repub Senators, take note.
House Reps as well.
Tim| 2.4.10 @ 10:03AM
The Reps have to go "Populist" and in a hurry and do it in a big bold way.
The USA is very hungry for a new modern day "Teddy Roosevelt"
It's the "Business as Usual corrupt filt driven way of doing business and politics that the people are rejecting.
The new space age media has rendered the back room deals for any party a thing of the past because there are no more secrets.
Politicians will actually be forced to tell the truth which will be a tall order and will require a whole new way of thinking.
Actually, the fact that Obama lied so openly has made it easier for a new breed of politician to emerge.
Not doing so will spell the end of the USA as we have known it.
So there really isn't any choice in the matter. It will just be interesting to see if the Reps go bold or the Dems do it going forward and who really means it.
Al Adab| 2.4.10 @ 11:02AM
The time has come to turn to a new generation of office holders. Those who continue to define the winners and losers by Party affiliation have had their day. Culpability rests on both sides for the disaster staring our nation in the face.
Now, the criteria is adherence to the Constitution no longer Rep. or Dem. although that distinction still has some value as one believes in central planning and the other at least gives lip service to free markets.
Who will stand (and vote) for Liberty against the impending tyranny of central government? Who still recognizes that freedom stems from natural law (nature and nature's God) and not from government gifts? Those are the ones we must elect to office. No longer is the criteria, bring home the bacon, but now it must be, defend our Liberty. Who will speak for us?
Few of those holding office during the last say ten years, deserve support, but many new voices are being heard. We must discern between those who are in it for themselves and those who are willing to sacrifice themselves on the altar of Freedom. The stakes, for both ourselves and generations yet unborn, could not be higher.
somnolence| 2.4.10 @ 1:48PM
John Hostettler has the best chance of defeating Bayh in Indiana. The Establishment RINOS are back to their old ways in urging Coats to enter the race.
Ted Agnew| 2.4.10 @ 3:27PM
Why doesn't Dan Quayle run?
Pingback| 2.4.10 @ 3:04PM
The American Spectator : Running the Table links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Louis Jenkins| 2.4.10 @ 4:55PM
Old Texican:
"If they don't, they will never be forgiven. November would then be likely the last "free elections" on the federal level before massive upheavals nation wide." I agree. This year is the last opportunity to reverse the teetering stone. If things continue to go bust, the Pretender n Chief will have to blame someone. Kinda like Hitler blamed the Jews for all the problems. Instead Obama will blame business, Constitutional loving people, even the middle class. And his minions will add physical force, further restriction of liberties, and greater taxation to his blame game. If this year's election brings little change, although it may take a mediocre amount of time, we will inherit pandemonium. Pandemonium is not just a state of confusion, noise, or disorder, it is the abode of all demons (hell).
Al Adab| 2.4.10 @ 5:52PM
Look up the painting "Pandemonium". The Capitol of Hell. I use it as my screen wallpaper.
Old Guy| 2.4.10 @ 8:02PM
Scary scenario. What happens if Obama pulls some more back room deals with the "retirees" - both Dem and Rep - and gets the votes to pass health care and cap-and-trade, and two or three other little tidbits, in return for six figure salaried "jobs" in this administration? If it could followed by a complete Republican take-over, would they have the guts to repeal the disasters?
JAE| 2.4.10 @ 11:04PM
LOL, they have already f--ked themselves with the lies and corruption. Every time the Big O and his ignorant "team" opens their stupid mouths, they alienate another grouup of people. This administration is the stupidest bunch of idiots that I can dream of. LOL. Be happy!
Yosemeti Sam| 2.5.10 @ 1:05AM
And where - might one ask - is Steele in all of these
intriguing scenarios?
Still on book tours?
Brent| 2.5.10 @ 1:08AM
FA Hayek wrote in Road Serfdom about the Left's disingenuous claims that it just wants to move past economic quarrels and focus on people and hugging trees, etc. Liberals and progressives think of nothing BUT economics (most notably, other peoples' money they feel they have intrinsic claim to or power over).
Conservatives and libertarians MUST start doing a better job of explaining and defending and promoting (tirelessly, I might add) the free market system and the inextricable links between religious, political and economics freedom.
You gotta check out this article on that very topic: http://rjmoeller.com/2010/02/t.....sm-part-i/
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Converse | 8.12.11 @ 3:49AM
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