When 2008 dawned the Democratic presidential nomination was
Hillary Clinton’s to lose. But no one expected her to.
Likewise, when 2009 got underway the Republican nomination
for the Florida U.S. Senate seat the unenthusiastic Mel Martinez
was giving up was moderate governor Charlie Crist’s to lose. In
fact, Crist looked like more of a lock last year than the
nation’s ex-wife had the year before.
And why not? Hardly anyone outside of his Miami district
knew anything about the conservative former speaker of the
Florida House, Marco Rubio, Crist’s opponent for the Senate
nomination. And Crist, who had enjoyed high approval ratings
before he “grew in office” after becoming governor, was
considered an unbeatable political heavyweight (odd expression
for a thin guy who says he only eats one meal a day and looks it,
but I’m just reporting). Most political observers thought Rubio
would hop out of the Senate race and run for governor when Crist
announced for the Senate. When Rubio stayed in, political wise
men called it a kamikaze mission. Crist was supposed to win this
one on cruise-control.
So much for political wisdom. And perhaps “political
observers” have too much time on their hands. Yesterday
Quinnipiac released a poll showing Rubio leading Crist in the
race by 47-44, the first lead for Rubio since Senate matchups
began last February. The poll included 673 registered Republic
voters and was conducted January 20-24. It has a margin of error
of 3.8 percent.
The poll shows Rubio beating Crist on the questions of
trust, values, and conservative credentials. This should not
surprise anyone. Rubio has run a solid and energetic retail
campaign based on such conservative values as limited government,
trust in the markets over government control, fiscal
conservatism, the centrality of the family, a strong foreign
policy, and all-around vigorous opposition to the leftward lurch
of the Obama administration and congressional Democrats. Every
indication is this is the kind of approach Florida voters are
looking for this year.
Crist, on the other hand, has taken political positions all
over the map since he’s been governor, some of them distinctly
un-conservative. Voters noticed, including Republicans who
supported Crist during his conservative campaign for governor in
2006. When Crist’s leftish stands proved unpopular — such as
supporting President Obama’s $787 billion “stimulus” slush fund
before it was adopted and supporting cap and trade — Crist
switched positions and claimed he had never supported these
unpopular things in the first place.
It doesn’t take a Joe Wilson to parse what this approach to
issue politics amounts to. Thus Crist’s problems with trust,
values, and conservative credentials. A problem he will have a
lot of trouble turning around. Once the public spots a politician
as an opportunist and a chameleon, it’s very difficult to shake
this rep. This is happening to Crist now.
The poll also shows either Rubio or Crist ahead of the
likely Democratic candidate for the Senate seat, Miami
Congressman Kendrick Meek, by about 10 points. A companion poll
of 1,618 Florida votes shows that 45 percent of Florida voters
approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as president. Another 49
percent disapprove. This is a sharp drop-off for the president
from last February when 64 percent of Floridians told Quinnipiac
they approved of what our rookie president was doing with only 23
percent disapproving.
Crist and Obama seem to be in a flat spin together. Last
February only six percent of voters liked Rubio for the Senate
seat. As recently as last August Crist led Rubio by 55 to 26
percent. See above re solid conservative campaign.
It may well be that the Quinnipiac poll actually
undercounts Rubio’s support as the poll contracted registered
Republicans rather than likely primary voters. Rubio has enjoyed
overwhelming support among those most active in the party, the
kind of people who show up to vote in Florida’s closed primaries.
There have been 16 straw polls taken by Florida Republican
organizations across the state, most county executive committees.
Rubio has won them all by lopsided margins.
There’s almost seven months to go before the August 24
primary, so they’re not icing down the champagne at Rubio
campaign headquarters yet. Rubio can stumble on the campaign
trail. Crist can use his considerable campaign financial
war-chest to paint Rubio in an unfavorable light. Crist might
convince Floridians he’s the true conservative in the
race.
But these things will be difficult to do. Crist has tried
criticizing the Obama administration for spending too much. But
Floridians remember Crist whooping up Obama’s slush fund on stage
with Obama last February and his hectoring members of Congress to
go along with the spending plan he’s now criticizing. They’re not
taking him seriously. Crist has tried picking at Rubio’s
conservative armor, but nothing has taken so far.
Even Crist’s large advantage in campaign funds is eroding.
The Rubio campaign reported collecting $1.75 million in the
quarter ending December 31, giving the campaign about $2 million
on hand. Crist originally was the establishment candidate, and of
course he enjoys certain fund-raising advantage because he’s a
sitting governor. But as the poll numbers change, and the
grass-roots enthusiasm for Rubio becomes more undeniable, it
becomes more difficult for Crist to raise money and easier for
Rubio.
After the spring session of the Florida Legislature
concludes in early May, Crist in effect becomes a lame duck. Look
for money and individual support to come Rubio’s way when there’s
no longer any reason to keep Governor Crist happy.
Events in Massachusetts and Florida are showing that in
2010 a solid conservative message, well delivered, is a lot more
helpful than being the establishment’s candidate. On the
Republican side, establishment candidates next fall may well be
left to sulk alone in their big tents.
