After Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.)
announced he would not run for Senate in 2010, the
conventional wisdom took hold: in a big blow to Republican
recruitment efforts, Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.) was now safe. As
Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post put it, “With
Pence out, national Republicans acknowledge they have no obvious
second choice to put the swing state of Indiana in play — making
Bayh a solid favorite to win a third term.”
The numbers suggest otherwise. According to a Rasmussen
poll released on Monday, Pence led Bayh 47 percent to 44
percent, a three-point advantage. Former Rep. John Hostettler
(R-Ind.) trailed Bayh by three points, 44 percent to 41 percent.
Not only is Bayh’s lead in the latter match-up not insurmountable
— when you factor in the margin of error, the race remains as
competitive with Hostettler as the nominee.
A third candidate, GOP state Sen. Marlin Stutzman, trails the
incumbent by 12 points. Bayh failed to reach 50 percent against
any of the Republicans tested, winning no more than 45 percent of
the vote in any hypothetical contest. Indiana remains anything
but a cakewalk for the Democrats in 2010.
Hostettler was the first well-known Republican to enter the race.
But after Scott Brown’s stunning upset victory in the special
election to succeed Ted Kennedy, Republican recruiters began to
look anew at all Democratic incumbents up for re-election this
fall. Ramesh Ponnuru
argued shortly before Brown was elected, “If Scott Brown can
come close in Massachusetts, or even win, isn’t it within the
realm of possibility that Republicans could pick up a Senate seat
in… Indiana?”
Conservatives began to pay new attention to a suggestion by
Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol that they draft
Pence to challenge Bayh. Kristol
concluded: “An articulate, conservative first-term Senator
who had knocked off a ‘safe’ Democrat in a state Obama carried in
2008-that would be something…for Pence, for the GOP, and for
conservatives nationwide.”
But Pence — who is already a leading national conservative well
positioned to run for governor, a higher leadership position in a
potential new Republican House majority, or even president
without a risky Senate campaign against Bayh — decided to stay
put. “After much prayer and deliberation, I have decided to
remain in the House and to seek reelection to the 6th
Congressional District in 2010,” Pence stated in a letter. “I am
staying for two reasons. First because I have been given the
responsibility to shape the Republican comeback as a member of
the House Republican Leadership and, second, because I believe
Republicans will win back the majority in the House of
Representatives in 2010.”
“Mike’s future in the House is at this point very strong,”
Hostettler, who served with Pence in the House, told
TAS. “He is poised to be at least the next whip in any
new Republican majority. Mike will be in a strong leadership
position to further his goals in the House.”
While some conservatives were disappointed that Pence wasn’t
running for Senate, others were pleased with his decision. “This
is refreshing news to many conservatives who were fearful that
Pence leaving the House would leave its leadership devoid of a
truly conservative voice,”
wrote Erick Erickson on RedState.com. Pence is the
highest-ranked Republican in the House widely trusted by movement
conservatives.
There are reasons the National Republican Senatorial Committee
preferred Pence to Hostettler. Bayh was re-elected with 62
percent of the vote in 2004; Hostettler lost his House seat,
drawing just 39 percent, in 2006. Hostettler’s independence from
the party line makes him unpredictable — he was one of just six
Republicans in the House to vote against authorizing the war in
Iraq — and his refusal to take political action committee money
frequently causes him to fare poorly at fundraising. Bayh is
sitting on a $12.7 million war chest.
But Hostettler also was given little chance to win when he took
out established Democratic incumbent Frank McCloskey in 1994.
Then a mechanical engineer with no political experience,
Hostettler labeled McCloskey “Frank McClinton.” Although
Republican at the presidential level, the district — nicknamed
the “Bloody Eighth” for its competitive nature — frequently
changed parties in the House. Hostettler nevertheless was able to
hold on for six terms.
Some of the problems that have plagued Hostettler in the past may
not be an issue this year. His Iraq war vote — perhaps an
unspoken reason some Republican hawks were so interested in
finding a different challenger for Bayh — could help his
fundraising through Ron Paul-style “money bombs.” Hostettler’s
campaign is already looking closely at Rand Paul’s surprisingly
successful
effort in Kentucky. And while Connecticut candidate Peter
Schiff hasn’t fared as well in the polls, he has done well at
raising money from like-minded donors.
Like the younger Paul but unlike Schiff, Hostettler has deep ties
to the more mainstream parts of the conservative movement:
politically active evangelicals, people concerned about illegal
immigration, pro-lifers, gun-rights activists, taxpayers’ groups,
and especially the tea party movement. And Hostettler’s biggest
albatross in 2006 — George W. Bush — is gone. In his place is
Barack Obama.
Hostettler hopes to make Obama Bayh’s albatross. “Bayh keeps
pointing to this leftward drift in the Democratic Party,”
Hostettler says. “He either doesn’t realize or hopes Hoosiers
don’t realize that he has been part of that leftward drift. His
votes for the bank bailouts, for the stimulus plan, for the
incremental plan for the federal government to take over the
nation’s health care system. Evan Bayh is a member of the vast
left-wing conspiracy he pretends not to be a member of.”
In 2010, Hostettler’s independent conservatism might be an
effective contrast with Bayh’s reliably Democratic voting record
punctuated by convenient bouts of centrism. Republicans in
Indiana and Washington didn’t get Mike Pence. But in the year of
the angry
independent, an uphill fight with John Hostettler isn’t
necessarily a lost cause.
