Campaign Crawlers
No Bye Week for Bayh
Don’t count John Hostettler out in the Indiana Senate race.
After Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.) announced he would not run for Senate in 2010, the conventional wisdom took hold: in a big blow to Republican recruitment efforts, Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.) was now safe. As Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post put it, “With Pence out, national Republicans acknowledge they have no obvious second choice to put the swing state of Indiana in play — making Bayh a solid favorite to win a third term.”
The numbers suggest otherwise. According to a Rasmussen poll released on Monday, Pence led Bayh 47 percent to 44 percent, a three-point advantage. Former Rep. John Hostettler (R-Ind.) trailed Bayh by three points, 44 percent to 41 percent. Not only is Bayh’s lead in the latter match-up not insurmountable — when you factor in the margin of error, the race remains as competitive with Hostettler as the nominee.
A third candidate, GOP state Sen. Marlin Stutzman, trails the incumbent by 12 points. Bayh failed to reach 50 percent against any of the Republicans tested, winning no more than 45 percent of the vote in any hypothetical contest. Indiana remains anything but a cakewalk for the Democrats in 2010.
Hostettler was the first well-known Republican to enter the race. But after Scott Brown’s stunning upset victory in the special election to succeed Ted Kennedy, Republican recruiters began to look anew at all Democratic incumbents up for re-election this fall. Ramesh Ponnuru argued shortly before Brown was elected, “If Scott Brown can come close in Massachusetts, or even win, isn’t it within the realm of possibility that Republicans could pick up a Senate seat in… Indiana?”
Conservatives began to pay new attention to a suggestion by Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol that they draft Pence to challenge Bayh. Kristol concluded: “An articulate, conservative first-term Senator who had knocked off a ‘safe’ Democrat in a state Obama carried in 2008-that would be something…for Pence, for the GOP, and for conservatives nationwide.”
But Pence — who is already a leading national conservative well positioned to run for governor, a higher leadership position in a potential new Republican House majority, or even president without a risky Senate campaign against Bayh — decided to stay put. “After much prayer and deliberation, I have decided to remain in the House and to seek reelection to the 6th Congressional District in 2010,” Pence stated in a letter. “I am staying for two reasons. First because I have been given the responsibility to shape the Republican comeback as a member of the House Republican Leadership and, second, because I believe Republicans will win back the majority in the House of Representatives in 2010.”
“Mike’s future in the House is at this point very strong,” Hostettler, who served with Pence in the House, told TAS. “He is poised to be at least the next whip in any new Republican majority. Mike will be in a strong leadership position to further his goals in the House.”
While some conservatives were disappointed that Pence wasn’t running for Senate, others were pleased with his decision. “This is refreshing news to many conservatives who were fearful that Pence leaving the House would leave its leadership devoid of a truly conservative voice,” wrote Erick Erickson on RedState.com. Pence is the highest-ranked Republican in the House widely trusted by movement conservatives.
There are reasons the National Republican Senatorial Committee preferred Pence to Hostettler. Bayh was re-elected with 62 percent of the vote in 2004; Hostettler lost his House seat, drawing just 39 percent, in 2006. Hostettler’s independence from the party line makes him unpredictable — he was one of just six Republicans in the House to vote against authorizing the war in Iraq — and his refusal to take political action committee money frequently causes him to fare poorly at fundraising. Bayh is sitting on a $12.7 million war chest.
But Hostettler also was given little chance to win when he took out established Democratic incumbent Frank McCloskey in 1994. Then a mechanical engineer with no political experience, Hostettler labeled McCloskey “Frank McClinton.” Although Republican at the presidential level, the district — nicknamed the “Bloody Eighth” for its competitive nature — frequently changed parties in the House. Hostettler nevertheless was able to hold on for six terms.
Some of the problems that have plagued Hostettler in the past may not be an issue this year. His Iraq war vote — perhaps an unspoken reason some Republican hawks were so interested in finding a different challenger for Bayh — could help his fundraising through Ron Paul-style “money bombs.” Hostettler’s campaign is already looking closely at Rand Paul’s surprisingly successful effort in Kentucky. And while Connecticut candidate Peter Schiff hasn’t fared as well in the polls, he has done well at raising money from like-minded donors.
Like the younger Paul but unlike Schiff, Hostettler has deep ties to the more mainstream parts of the conservative movement: politically active evangelicals, people concerned about illegal immigration, pro-lifers, gun-rights activists, taxpayers’ groups, and especially the tea party movement. And Hostettler’s biggest albatross in 2006 — George W. Bush — is gone. In his place is Barack Obama.
Hostettler hopes to make Obama Bayh’s albatross. “Bayh keeps pointing to this leftward drift in the Democratic Party,” Hostettler says. “He either doesn’t realize or hopes Hoosiers don’t realize that he has been part of that leftward drift. His votes for the bank bailouts, for the stimulus plan, for the incremental plan for the federal government to take over the nation’s health care system. Evan Bayh is a member of the vast left-wing conspiracy he pretends not to be a member of.”
In 2010, Hostettler’s independent conservatism might be an effective contrast with Bayh’s reliably Democratic voting record punctuated by convenient bouts of centrism. Republicans in Indiana and Washington didn’t get Mike Pence. But in the year of the angry independent, an uphill fight with John Hostettler isn’t necessarily a lost cause.
About the Author
W. James Antle, III, author of the new book Devouring Freedom: Can Big Government Ever Be Stopped?, is editor of the Daily Caller News Foundation and a senior editor of The American Spectator. You can follow him on Twitter @jimantle.
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JP| 1.27.10 @ 7:51AM
In a year when unemployment is at 10%, and federal defecits are at record levels, and with a President who grows more unpopular by the day, no Democrat incumbent is safe (well, maybe Pelosi's seat is safe). Scott Brown proved that. Senator Bayh, a "centrist" (who rarely votes against Obama) realizes he has a bullseye painted on him. And remember, Obama's 28,000 vote victory in Indiana couldn't have happened without Bob Barr -he took over 30,000 votes from McCain. The President also benefitted from the shell-shocked unemployed RV and autoworkers. Most became unemployed just months before the election. Over a year later, unemployment in Indiana still hovers around 10%, but is closer to 14% in RV in country (normally a very conservative region).
Hostetler would be wise to target these areas with a growth message. President Obama himself targeted this region with his promise of Green Jobs using Smart Technology(whatever that is). Most of these people just want thier old life back; and since these people work in very small to medium job shops, they know what makes small businesses tick.
Bayh will be fighting for his political life this year no matter who runs against him. I hope Hostetler doesn't screw this up.
sullivanCtyema| 1.27.10 @ 1:49PM
If Hostetler really had his heart in this, he'd be campaigning harder and wouldn't have waited until December to get in. He's a good guy, don't get me wrong. It's just not his time. There's not much difference between him and Stutzman, but Marlin is actually campaigning the way we need to take it to Bayh and help our downballot races (don't forget we have to take back the Indiana House!)
Alec| 1.27.10 @ 8:13AM
Barr took zero votes from McCain. The Republicans had betrayed their base and McCain never had those votes to begin with.
Daniel Buksa| 1.27.10 @ 9:20AM
While I don't have anything against John Hostettler, I, and many other conservative Hoosiers are backing Marlin Stuzman, who as an incumbent state senator, more resembles Sen. Elect Scott Brown from MA.
Dan Buksa
Republican Precinct Committeeman
Munster - 18
loulou| 1.27.10 @ 11:41AM
So you're saying that Stutzman is not as conservative as Hostettler.
That makes Hostettler a BETTER candidate against Bayh. With all due respect, you sound like a party hack. You must not have gotten the message.
Earl| 1.27.10 @ 1:45PM
Loulou, Please. Look at Marlin's voting record.
He's solid on 2nd Amendment rights, he's fought and is fighting to increase our state sovereignty, and he's currently working to eliminate taxpayer funding of abortion (and has the endorsement of Allen County Right to Life).
Marlin does resemble Scott Brown - AS A CAMPAIGNER and as an ENERGETICALLY YOUTHFUL candidate. Hostettler entered the race in DECEMBER. Marlin had been campaigning since summer, taking the time we SHOULD TAKE to traverse Indiana and put the groundwork down for a successful campaign.
GO MARLIN! http://GoMarlin.Com
Neolibertarian| 1.27.10 @ 9:40AM
Pence is doing the right thing. Do not take points off the board, we are only halfway through the third quarter.
Pingback| 1.27.10 @ 12:09PM
The American Spectator : No Bye Week for Bayh Blog links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
David Jack Smith | 1.27.10 @ 12:43PM
Now that Pence has surprisingly decided to remove himself, look for John Hostettler's three point down on Bayh to switch up to a three point lead.
Reality is a lagging indicator for Democrats this year. He's done. And it's all his own consistent and cowardly votes for the hard left which have shown him, to be a fraud.
Tex Expatriate| 1.27.10 @ 2:32PM
Writers like to call Bayh a "centrist" and "moderate." He is neither. His voting record is consistently socialist. He talks moderation and votes socialist, just like the fraud we have for President.
John3| 1.30.10 @ 1:50PM
I have to say this having watched (and communicated with) Mr Bayh over the past year: He is a liberal Democrat who acts like a moderate whenever possible. For example, he voted for the abortion funding ban amendment then switched on final voting to support the final Senate bill which does not contain the above amendment. To me, his loyalty is to the Democratic Party and not to the Hoosiers who pay for him to be in the Senate. I also think that his Senate seat is much like "Ted Kennedy's seat." The Democrats in Indiana think that it is "their seat" and that no conservative/GOP candidate can ever unseat Mr. Bayh. Well, we will see.....
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Mick Lee| 1.28.10 @ 7:01AM
As much as I would like to believe Bayh's goose is cooked, citizens of Hoosierland have a way of voting for the jackass. Bayh didn't grow up in Indiana (in reality, Washington D.C.) yet somehow he is regarded as a home grown boy. He was elected to a three state offices in spite of the fact he had no accomplishments or distinctions save his last name. In spite of the fact that Dan Quayle kicked his father's butt out of the Senate 0nly a few years before, Ho0sierland TV and Press acted as if balance would return to the cosmos if Evan took his father's Senate seat. Now days, even they recognize that Evan does not bring "Hoosier values" or centrist moderation to Washington. Evan does precisely what the Democrat leadership directs. Evan Bayh does what's good for Evan Bayh. Even so, we in Indiana love the myth that is Evan Bayh.
Pingback| 1.28.10 @ 9:01AM
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David Collins| 1.29.10 @ 2:46PM
John Hostettler voted against invading Iraq? Good for him! That means he's a real conservative.
Joe| 1.30.10 @ 3:01PM
Damn Straight. Conservatism is a disposition, well stated by this quote from old right standard bearer Robert Taft:
"If, as Taft averred, "socialism will not work" because "there is no man and no group of men intelligent enough to coordinate and control the infinitely numerous and complex problems involved in the production, consumption, and daily lives of one hundred and twenty million individualistic and educated people,"
Then clearly, the Utopian task the task of neoconservatives, to totally convert foreign countries to Jeffersonian Democracy, is at least as much a fool's errand.
In his late life, he had a run in at the heritage foundation with such neoconservatives, and described them well as "often clever, but seldom wise".
Pingback| 2.26.10 @ 7:22PM
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Converse | 8.12.11 @ 2:51AM
is good