At Large
Ukraine Sliding Backwards
Whatever Moscow wants it slowly gets — as Ukraine’s upcoming elections will likely confirm.
Word has long made the rounds in Moscow that the Kremlin would consider expansion of NATO that includes Ukraine to be an outright military threat to the Russian Federation.
This threat of a threat plays well with the current effort by the Medvedev/Putin regime to nudge Ukraine back into Russia’s orbit. In more direct terms, such a maneuver effectively means Moscow gaining adequate controlling leverage over its economic and strategically important Former Soviet Union (FSU) neighbor.
One of the expectations of the “Orange Revolution” in 2004 was that Ukraine would quickly edge closer to the West. Joining the European Union and NATO was held out as a real possibility. But it didn’t happen. The working relationship of Viktor Yushchenko and Yulia Tymoshenko broke down as Tymoshenko chose the path of pragmatic relations (her term) with Russia after several friendly meetings with Putin that produced what she considered satisfactory results.
Yushchenko nurtured his well-justified antagonism toward a Moscow that he continued to view as having only exploitive aims. Meanwhile the Russophile Viktor Yanukovych has maintained his pro-Moscow stance at the same time as strengthening his political popularity mostly in Ukraine’s traditionally Russia-oriented east and south.
This return of Yanukovych is less a battle won by him than a failure of the Yushchenkoites to reform the corruption by politicians, bureaucrats, and businessmen against whom the original “Orange Revolution” was directed. The fact is that Ukraine is arguably more corrupt today than it was five years ago, with bribery of public officials the principal mechanism of government efficiency on all levels. In a now oft-quoted statement, the EU representative to the Ukraine said, “Corruption, red tape, administrative obstacles of every kind — these are only things that serve the interests of those who today control the [Ukrainian] economy…”
Using their knowledge of these vulnerabilities of the Ukrainian political economy, Russian business and government operators have eased themselves back into an influential position. Even the rich, beautiful, and smart Yulia Tymoshenko has effectively given up her fight against Russian influence in exchange for a policy based on accommodation for hoped-for eventual advantage. In the meantime, Russian entrepreneurs have bought out control of one of Ukraine’s major steel groups in an industry that is suffering greatly from the recession.
The movement to integrate Ukraine into NATO has all but died — much to the joy of Moscow. Neither of the two leading contenders for the presidency (Yanukovych and Tymoshenko) favors NATO integration. Only Yushchenko still holds on to his original aim of taking the country into the Western military alliance. All three have publicly supported the idea of Ukraine joining the European Union. The forthcoming election process beginning on January 17 will point the way for Ukraine’s immediate future.
From Moscow’s point of view, EU membership is a pipe dream, but one it can live with so long as it’s a theory that can’t come to fruition. Membership in NATO is another matter altogether. As quoted in the Financial Times, Sergei Karaganov, head of Russia’s Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, said extending NATO to include Ukraine would cause “a threat of large scale war in Europe.”
This type of rhetoric is a serious characterization of Moscow’s continued perception of its strategic need to maintain Ukraine (and Georgia) as a buffer between the Western alliance and Russia. To the Kremlin — in this case meaning Medvedev/Putin or any combination thereof — it is essential that Russia be alert to counter all efforts to extend NATO eastward. So far the Obama administration has carefully avoided challenging in any way this strongly held position.
Accepting Moscow’s proprietary military view of Ukraine’s strategic importance to Russia maintains and reinforces a precedent for the entire concept of Russian reestablishment of strategic military influence over FSU countries. Ukraine is the keystone in such a concept politically, economically and geographically. In most immediate term Ukraine is the principal route for the export of gas produced by or transiting Russia. As such this circumstance is a powerful factor in Western Europe’s energy supply and clearly a security concern in East-West relations.
Putin has envisioned a reborn sphere of influence contiguous to Russia. His ultimate objective — though perhaps not shared in the same sense by Medvedev — is eventually to build a strategic forward defense perimeter among the FSU nations as a military buffer and political economic partner. Ukraine is essential in that calculus.
About the Author
George H. Wittman writes a weekly column on international affairs for The American Spectator online. He was the founding chairman of the National Institute for Public Policy.
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Trackback| 1.15.10 @ 7:25AM
The American Spectator : Ukraine Sliding Backwards, on PunditKix, links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Tim| 1.15.10 @ 1:14PM
Is the Ukraine really worth a war guarantee? Wasn't Georgia enough of a fiasco? Can we stop playing chess with the Russians?
concernedforusa| 1.18.10 @ 12:03PM
What do you expect from the Ukraine? Obama has thrown under the bus Poland and Checz Republics on the anniversary of the Soviet's invasion into the Poland. Ukraine is afraid that Obama can also sell it out to Russians.
Jabberwok| 1.15.10 @ 1:34PM
Do not be naive about the Russians. People may scoff about the Domino Theory, but those of us who have studied the Russians, both professionally and personally, know that they still have a hidden messianic worldview. They no longer think that they should turn their attentions eastward, at least per their origins, but they do look to expand their influence any way then can. Witness the exchanges w/Chavez and the trade w/China. Let us not forget the toe-dragging re: Iran. This is a wounded country and no amount of Moscow window dressing will change that. Never underestimate Putin. Besides, w/a person as uniformed foreign policy-wise as Obama, we are not playing chess, not even checkers. More like Chutes and Ladders.
led mining light | 11.25.10 @ 1:45AM
In short, just as we still rely on nation-states for international security, we must still rely on national governments to protect individual rights. Your freedom still depends on where you live.
Alan Brooks| 1.15.10 @ 10:44PM
The Russians were correct (from their view) on proposed missile defense in Poland and Czechoslovakia.
Russia can't be sure hostile regimes to the West of her will not come to power someday. After what the Germans did to Russia, why shouldn't they be suspicious?
concernedforusa| 1.18.10 @ 12:15PM
Suspicious of whom? The war between Germans and Russians was the war between two totalitarian states. Nazi party were socialist party also. Stalin admired Hitler, but if Russia was stronger, Stalin would not hesitate to gobble up Germany. One can equate the former Soviet Union to the Germany (both countries were socialist and totalitarian) but one cannot equate Russia or Nazi Germany with the free West.
Yosemeti Sam| 1.16.10 @ 1:58AM
Ah - rapprochement.
Once a Ruskie - always a Ruskie; no matter
the inconvenient separations.
Oh, the intrigue.
As if, parenthetically, the KGB et al took a space ship to points unknown when the USSR was
dissolved; voiding their 'influencing' know-how.
Duh.
LOL.
Alan Brooks| 1.16.10 @ 9:14AM
Rapprochement? who said anything about rapprochement? Quite the opposite-- the Russians merely look out for their interests, which is why they were opposed to missile defense west of them.
Alan Brooks| 1.17.10 @ 1:52PM
...if they think they have to manipulate the Ukraine in their national interest, they will.
Yosemeti Sam| 1.17.10 @ 11:04PM
" ... This threat of a threat plays well with the current effort by the Medvedev/Putin regime to nudge Ukraine back into Russia's orbit ...."
"Nudge"?
The Ukraine was the breadbasket of the former
USSR.
Defense considerations - blah!
The Ruskies suddenly run short of nukes
of all sort as deterrent to - anybody?
Once upon a time - in the East.
Was an empire called the USSR - aka Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.
Republics as in States.
States as in the former USSRs' former republic/state of Ukraine.
Handy definition - Oxford dict - of rapprochement:
" the resumption of harmonious relations, esp. between states ".
How may that be accomplished, this 'rapprochement'?
Well, perhaps by poisoning resistant Ukrainian leaders who don't want to be bear-hugged again. Hmmmmm.
Make no mistake - Russia seeks rapprochement with the Ukraine.
Through any pretense!
Lookie at the state of Georgia. The Russian rapprochement exhibited there.
Who says rapprochement has to involve candy and flowers?
Rapprochement to the Ruskies means a great big
bear-hug.
rkka| 1.18.10 @ 8:38AM
When Soviet Genocide against Ukraine ended in 1991, there were 52 million Ukrainians.
There are now 46 million, and deaths exceed births there by almost 250,000/year. Further, hundreds of thousands flee the catastrophic political and economic conditions there, every year.
Clearly, Ukrainian independence isn't working out. Population decline in Ukraine has reached almost 12% of Ukraine's 1992 population. I'm just wondering what is the population loss level required for people to rethink the whole "Ukrainian independence" thing. Will it take a population loss of 15%, or 20%, or 25%, or 30%, or 40%, or 50% before Mr. George H. Wittman is willing to consider that Ukraine just might be better off associated with Russia than associated with the West, since the West clearly has no solutions whatever to Ukraine's actual problems?
Calmark| 1.19.10 @ 4:24PM
Let's see if I'm reading this right: slavery (in Ukraine's case, to a brutal master) for marginal material comfort is preferable to struggling while free. By that logic, things are tough in the USA right now, so let's ask the House of Windsor to take us over!
rkka| 1.19.10 @ 8:20PM
Let me see if I'm reading this right: you don't much care how, or even whether, Ukrainians live, as long as they are separate from Russia. By that logic, you'll fight for Ukrainian independence, but only to the last Ukrainian.
jabberwok| 1.25.10 @ 12:39PM
No, that is not what he is saying. He is saying that Ukraine should stay the course. Ukraine is in its position because of two things: corruption and a divided mindset. Corruption is endemic to the whole post-Soviet system. The idea that greasing the wheel is the way forward did not go away w/the fall of the regime, in fact it worsened. The other problem, the two-sided Ukrainian national character, is a remnant of Soviet policy. That is, during the Soviet times, forcibly remove those who claim Ukrainian ethnicity and move Russians in. This leaves a country that is both East- and West-leaning, tearing the country in half. Don't kid yourself about Russia looking for rapprochement, they are looking to recreate their buffer zone, one former republic at a time. Say what you will about America's involvement, past and present, in the internal affairs of other countries, but it pales in comparison to the activities of "Nash Bol'shoj Sosed."
Chris| 2.12.10 @ 2:19PM
And the US doesn't have a buffer zone in the Americas? (in addition to the oceans)
When the Chinese took over mgmgt of the Panama Canal the Americans had hissing fit, and Russia is not supposed to be concerned with NATO (!!!!!!!!) on its borders???
Russia lost tens of millions of people to the German invader and you moron don't understand why they want a buffer zone???
The US almost started a nuclear war over Russian missiles in Cuba??
Get your heads checked!
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Well, I dont really know what to comment because all the clever stuff has been written by you. Perhaps I could add that Russians are realists for the most part, and so seeing military of their rivalry on the doorstep provokes anger and reaction, which I believe is justified. After all the USA have been invading and controlling so much more countries than Russia, and rarely for their benefit
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