The Recession Spectator
Don’t Count America Out
The popular view notwithstanding, we are not in inexorable economic decline.
(Page 2 of 2)
Second, a vibrant economy is at odds with a totalitarian political system. A vibrant economy needs markets, which need freedom, which creates personal wealth, which creates a shift in power from government to individuals and businesses. By accommodating the economy, the Chinese Communist Party knows that it is riding the back of a tiger and that conflict is inevitable. For China truly to become a dominant economic power, freedom will need to win out. It very well may do so, but it will take decades and great societal upheaval. The Communist overlords will not give up without a fight. In the meantime, the consequences of the Chinese Communists’ success in constraining their people’s fertility rates will play out. The UN estimates that by 2050, the percent of China’s population above 60 years old will triple, to 31%. Meanwhile, the Chinese workforce-age population (15-59) will decrease by 3%. These are the demographics of economic disaster. Indeed, as Mark Steyn has reported in America Alone, the United States is the only major economy that is sustaining its population with a fertility rate at or about 2.1 children per couple. In Japan the rate is 1.32; the EU average stands at 1.38. So the United States seems destined to remain the world’s most powerful economy into the second half of this century if only by default.
If Americans can succeed in limiting the damage done by President Obama and his leftist allies in Congress, however, the United States can do much better than winning by default. But the fight will be a tough one. We will soon have enormous issues with unfunded Social Security and Medicare entitlements (though, as the Obama administration is fond of admonishing us, we are well behind our European and Canadian friends in construction of an unsustainable welfare state). And we could be facing enormous tax increases and a crippling of the pharmaceutical and medical device industries under the guise of “healthcare reform.” But if we can manage to stay true to our proven formula of free enterprise tempered by modest regulation and moderate taxation, there is good reason to be optimistic about America’s economic future.
About the Author
Brandon Crocker is the chief financial officer of a commercial real estate development and management company in San Diego.
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Appleby| 11.30.09 @ 6:36AM
Once the unions have been squeezed out of manufacturing and retail, manufacturing will come back in the USA.
If you do not believe this is necessary, notice that the Winter Olympics are about to begin in Vancouver -- and their Emergency Med Techs are just about to go on strike.
Mark| 11.30.09 @ 2:50PM
Yes. And all the jobs will pay minimum wage. Yippee!
Pingback| 11.30.09 @ 6:36AM
Twitter Trackbacks for The American Spectator : Don't Count America Out [spectator.o links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Shamus| 11.30.09 @ 6:49AM
The writer is correct to identify leftist takeover of our government as a grave threat.
Pingback| 11.30.09 @ 7:00AM
Paying On Time - Credit Cards » Don’t Count America Out - Spectator.org links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Roy| 11.30.09 @ 8:48AM
The country that will clean our clocks if we don't quit taxing/regulating ourselves into oblivion isn't China but India.
Not that they don't also have huge problems, but the political system, whatever else it is, isn't "totalitarian". The government has its claws in the economy, but it has come a long way since the early 90's and is headed up, whereas the US, in electing Barney Frank and his spokesman, Barack Obama, is not.
Ken (Old Texican)| 11.30.09 @ 9:36AM
Mr. Crocker,
Good article. I do have one bone to pick with you however.
I have been CEO of two very large international companies. Yeah, we do need reasonable taxes and regulation...but please...put a point on it...American business needs a long term PROMISE of a stable, predictable business climate.
Growing a company, or a new industry niche, requires time. Sometimes several years. It is very difficult to do so when investors...don't know what loony tunes the gubmint is going to be playing in the coming years.
Lazy Jack | 11.30.09 @ 9:38AM
Several times in the last few months when overseas, I have been asked about the health of the U.S. national economy. As starry eyed as the rest of the world was with our new President, business people are beginning to see real storm clouds hovering over the U.S. Despite the popular media portrayal that the world rejoices in our misery, it seems that people in industry (average people like me) around the world are actually hoping that the U.S. finds a way to participate in a global recovery.
My answer to them has been that Americans are generally an optimistic community, willing to invest and take risks even in the most difficult times. My message is always that we will find a way to recovery. I do condition my comments, however, that in an environment where the U.S. government is spending an unprecedented 45% of GDP on government, we risk a return to 1937. For those that forget the history please recollect that after 5 years of monumental government subsumption of the U.S. economy during the depression, the economy was receding and unemployment was still over 19%. Those at the time could not imagine that all the government intervention was causing the continuation of the depression. They could only imagine that more government would solve the problem. To them, we had just not spent enough, or socialized enough of our society. If that sounds familiar, those themes are the ‘sturm und drang’ of the Democrats these days. Off the record I tell my friends overseas that four things keep me awake at night.
Leading the pack is the Heatlhcare legislation, fixing broken arms tomorrow for $1000 when they only cost $500 today. Next is the American Free Choice legislation. Within twenty months after the similar The Wagner Act passed in 1936 union membership doubled, but unemployment increased from 14% to 19%. Nice Trade off, to be repeated in 2010. Cap and Trade, our modern Smoot-Hawley, destined to send more jobs overseas and start more trade wars than any legislation since Smoot. Finally, the administrations weak dollar policy sort of speaks for itself. The U.S. can take any one of these and survive (the possible exception being healthcare). But can we take all four? I remain optimistic, but it feels a bit like a perfect storm of economic chicanery. Don't count us out, but don't bet the farm yet either.
Lazy Jack
http://thanksforthelaughs.word.....ng-report/
Bram| 11.30.09 @ 9:58AM
Roy - I've been involved in outsourcing work to India. In general one American employee is at least as productive as two Indians – particularly when quality / rework is a factor. Our problem is that the loaded cost of one American employee is more than twice that of an Indian.
Ken - Agreed. It's called capitalism. If nobody will invest capital because they fear the government will seize or destroy their investments (GM Bondholders), the system grinds to a halt. FDR's economic shenanigans kept the Depression going for over a decade.
Pingback| 11.30.09 @ 11:30AM
The American Spectator : Don't Count America Out | americantoday links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Oh, Hi Mark| 11.30.09 @ 11:51AM
"Due to massive deficit spending at the federal level, 2009 will likely also be negative. "
Really?
Tweety Bird| 11.30.09 @ 12:24PM
I tawt I taw a puddytat. I did! I did!
Marcell| 11.30.09 @ 1:05PM
“I am happy to report, however, that America's economic demise is not around the corner.”
--------------------
I guess some of you are starting to realize that the fear tactic isn’t working for you anymore.
9.12 DC TEA PARTY - MARCH FOOTAGE WITH INTERVIEWS
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lUPMjC9mq5Y
Not much is going to work because we have already figured you out.
Michael Tomlinson| 11.30.09 @ 2:23PM
Under Obama 1 out 8 adults is and 1 out of 4 children are on food stamps. Just another sign that Obama failed Presidency is the worst in US history.
Marcell| 11.30.09 @ 1:17PM
Despite the fact that the technological revolutions of the past 30 years have been achieved through the dynamism of American free enterprise, the Obama administration is not enamored with American capitalism and believes that we need a big government push for America to ride what it has identified as the next big technology wave -- "green energy" -- and has set itself up as the "creator" of thousands of new "green jobs.
Marcell: Please watch this youtube, & think about what are supporting when you buy the conserva- crap versions of capitalism.
Beijing Pollution Watch
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12llTOryD30
My mom has been living in a new house that has had solar panels on it for two years, & her electricity bill averages out to about $15.00 a month.
But, you should hate clean energy that won't cause much pollution, & will lower you electricity bill.
The leaders of the communist / socialist countries are pure 100% capitalist.
The conservative version of capitalism is more like the third world, socialist, & communist countries than what many of them try to define Democratic Party supporters as.
The conservatives ask the average citizen to expect nothing from our government, while those who support the rhetoric use the government to their advantage at all times.
Michael Tomlinson| 11.30.09 @ 2:25PM
More Americans are homeless and go to bed hungry under Barack Obama than previous Presidents. Not since Jimmy Carter have we seen such a failure in the White House as Obama and Democrats trying to make America a second tier or third world nation.
JimE| 11.30.09 @ 9:42PM
Marcell, truly you are an idiot, your constant opening and closing of your mother's refrigerator door costs her more than $15. It's also obvious you haven't taken the cost of the solar panels into consideration. Of course it's free to you, you are on welfare.
Derek Leaberry| 11.30.09 @ 1:28PM
As the United States continues its way down the road to Third World demographic status, our economy will reflect that fact. Not only will the average American worker be less intelligent in the future, Americans will be more inclined to support the Democratic Party in politics because of all the goodies the Democrats promise.
Ken (Old Texican)| 11.30.09 @ 7:13PM
Derek dear,
Go to your room and speak, quietly, to yourself. heh.
We real Americans won't go third world. We will drag you cowards, kicking and screaming, along behind us, to the shining hill.
Marcell| 11.30.09 @ 1:42PM
Despite the fact that the technological revolutions of the past 30 years have been achieved through the dynamism of American free enterprise, the Obama administration is not enamored with American capitalism and believes that we need a big government push for America to ride what it has identified as the next big technology wave -- "green energy" -- and has set itself up as the "creator" of thousands of new "green jobs." In typical government style, the Obama administration intends to "create" these jobs through regulation, taxation, and subsidies.
This rhetoric is just a simple play on the average person’s intelligence. The writer is attempting to give the false notion that the federal government is not, & has not been, heavily invested in newer technologies… “FALSE!!”
Here is a list of federal subsidies:
Number of Federal Subsidy Programs Is Soaring
http://www.cato.org/pubs/tbb/tbb_0611-41.pdf
Note: It’s dated 2006.
Finally, I guarantee you that the unemployment rate would raise to around 20% if we took away the federal subsidy that helps keep most businesses open; the federal FOOD STAMPS subsidy.
Even the businesses that have nothing to do with food stamps will lose a large sum of their profits, because people would have less money to purchase your goods, because they need their cash for food.
Yeah, that makes Bu$h sense to the Conserva-sheeple.
Michael Tomlinson| 11.30.09 @ 2:27PM
One out 8 adults and 1/4 of America's children are on food stamps thanks to Barack Obama and Democrats. Real unemployment or under employment is at a record 17.5% and growing thanks to Obama and Democrats. Brilliant!
Marcell| 11.30.09 @ 1:48PM
Derek Leaberry| 11.30.09 @ 1:28PM
As the United States continues its way down the road to Third World demographic status, our economy will reflect that fact. Not only will the average American worker be less intelligent in the future, Americans will be more inclined to support the Democratic Party in politics because of all the goodies the Democrats promise.
----
It is not like the conservatives rhetoric actually makes any sense as a counter.
You guys & gals are masters of allowing yourselves to fall for any Consera- trick.
It seems like you don't even realize the role you play in helping dumb down the average American by mentally purchasing & verbally selling the conserva-poop.
Michael Tomlinson| 11.30.09 @ 2:29PM
Moron understand it is under Obama and Democrats that more Americans are homeless and hungry than under Republicans. The only way to stop the pain is oust Democrats who don't give a tinker's damn about real people. You'd be better off reading Mother Jones than TAS.
Pingback| 11.30.09 @ 2:32PM
African American Collectible Porcelain Doll Angelique | The African Art Store links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Marcell| 11.30.09 @ 2:50PM
Na
Marcell| 11.30.09 @ 2:56PM
Michael Tomlinson| 11.30.09 @ 2:27PM
One out 8 adults and 1/4 of America's children are on food stamps thanks to Barack Obama and Democrats. Real unemployment or under employment is at a record 17.5% and growing thanks to Obama and Democrats. Brilliant!
--------
This is your brain on dumb.
This is your brain on dumb| 11.30.09 @ 2:59PM
Michael Tomlinson| 11.30.09 @ 2:25PM
More Americans are homeless and go to bed hungry under Barack Obama than previous Presidents. Not since Jimmy Carter have we seen such a failure in the White House as Obama and Democrats trying to make America a second tier or third world nation.
P.S. This is your classic, "I hate Dems, so blame it on the Dems," rhetoric.
Brad| 11.30.09 @ 3:27PM
An interesting aspect of this is trying to promote increased multiculturalism in hopes of getting better human economic captial for the U.S., while also having government grow larger to ensure egalitarian advancement to ensure everybodies multicultural rights.
Marcell| 11.30.09 @ 3:29PM
I must be doing a great job dissecting that story, because you are coming up with phony excuses to screen out my post. That does nothing but inspire me.
... Losers =)
Marcell| 11.30.09 @ 3:34PM
Brad
We don't need to advance further advance multiculturalism & all your other fears, because you lost those wars in the 1980's.
This is ONLY about gathering the info needed to defeat you.
Brad| 11.30.09 @ 4:13PM
Test scores indicate we do in order to sustain current levels of GDP. Where's your empirical evidence?
Pat| 11.30.09 @ 5:01PM
America's coming economic problems will certainly increase due to our rising baggage of issues that can't and won't go away with "stimulus" money or statistically manipulated "green shoots of economoic recovery". One such baggage issue is our crushing public burden of unemployables. For you hard core capitalists out there, it's like trying to swim across the lake with a 50 pound concrete block strapped to your back. And the government is there to make sure that America's wealth generating geniuses don't wiggle out of their heavy backpacks; in fact, Washington is determined to keep adding more deadweight to the struggling swimmer's load. And good luck on winning the swim meet.
Take Detroit Michigan for instance. Once the incredibly productive Arsenal of Democracy, Detroit is now the Arsenal of Welfare. Today's Detroit Free Press describes the new mayor's problems in turning Detroit around - naively claiming it will take 20 years for a turnaround to show results. Detroit has a high crime rate, a 30% unemployment rate, a massive budget deficit, a high school graduation rate of only 25 to 30% of entering freshmen and is losing 10,000 residents a year to other venues. About one third of the city's large land mass of 130 square miles is deserted, 80,000 empty domiciles paying no property taxes, deer grazing in the former family backyards and no prospects for improvement with about a third of the residents living below the poverty line.
So what, you say - other cities in other regions are still creating wealth, so why does it matter? It matters because American wealth will be diverted into the futile task of "saving Detroit". Notice the Free Press doesn't ask why we should save Detroit - it's a given that Detroit must somehow be saved. Guess who will be doing the saving? Will Detroit pull itself up by its bootstraps and return to its former glory? Right and the British will regain their lost the Sun Never Sets Empire any day now.
How many other Detroit's, struggling for survival but loyally voting Democratic Party, are there? Look around our nation - what do we do with massive unemployables in numerous decaying cities - folks who demand much more in living wages but are worth less than the typical unskilled worker in emerging countries? America has an even chance of becoming a vast Detroit with a few productive souls supporting a vast army of entitled citizens who can't compete with your average Mr. Wong or Mr. Gupta.
Ken (Old Texican)| 11.30.09 @ 7:32PM
Dear Pat
We productive folks have been pretty amicable to carrying our less fortunate brothers and sisters, all down through our history.
You are correct on many symptoms above, but you are down right stupid in your conclusions.
Duh!
Mr. Wong and Mr. Gupta do not have a job without productive Americans. We are still the biggest market for goods and services, (by a factor of 4), of all the other markets in the world. If we quit buying their stuff...they starve....literally.
...unemployables are not really "unemployable". They just haven't gotten hungry enough yet....and their color TVs with cable have not been turned off yet.
The day will come...soon.
Marcell | 11.30.09 @ 7:09PM
Romer: Rising jobless rate a 'stark reminder'
Nov. 6: Christina Romer, the chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, joins msnbc's Dylan Ratigan to discuss the state of the U.S. economy as the unemployment rate tops 10 percent for the first time since 1983.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22.....9#33719229
Marcell| 11.30.09 @ 7:18PM
You are being outsmarted.
All Democrats have to do is keep their eye on the prize, while conservatives are hoping & praying our economy continue to fail for their benefit.
Marcell| 11.30.09 @ 7:27PM
Inside look at the financial crisis
Oct. 22: Morning Meeting's Dylan Ratigan and Andrew Ross Sorkin of the New York Times discuss the concept of "too big to fail," as well as the Obama administration's efforts to prevent another economic collapse.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22.....8#33430968
To American Spectater | 11.30.09 @ 7:35PM
You continue to NOT allow the political strategy that I wrote to be posted; no matter how many times I post it. That speaks in volumes.
Please post my response to the columnist support for unfair triad.
Ken (Old Texican)| 11.30.09 @ 7:37PM
Hello Marcell, oh squirrelly one.
Oh yes, we are being "outsmarted", by little titty babies like you. Riiiiiight! heh.
Are you still outsmarting your dumb mommie to keep feeding you? heh.
Hang in there, and keep mistaking her love for dumbness.
Marcell| 11.30.09 @ 7:40PM
I am posting links, because I know that you conservatives want to create an illusion filled with misinformation.
Wall Street to take a hit?
Oct. 22: A Morning Meeting panel discusses the Obama administration's decision to set new limits on how much bailed-out companies can pay their top executives.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22.....0#33431350
Marcell| 11.30.09 @ 7:47PM
The liberals control nearly 80% of the media outlets, & we know you are engaging in Wile E. Coyote tactics; you know what happened to the road runner Wile E. Conservatives.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hz65AOjabtM
Dear Old Tex| 11.30.09 @ 8:03PM
IV. TACTICAL DISPOSITIONS 1.
1. Sun Tzŭ said: The good fighters of old first put themselves beyond the possibility of defeat, and then waited for an opportunity of defeating the enemy.
2. To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself. 2
3. Thus the good fighter is able to secure himself against defeat, 1 but cannot make certain of defeating the enemy. 2
4: Hence the saying: One may know how to conquer without being able to do it. 3
5. Security against defeat implies defensive tactics; ability to defeat the enemy means taking the offensive. 4
6. Standing on the defensive indicates insufficient strength: attacking, a superabundance of strength.
7. The general who is skilled in defense hides in the most secret recesses of the earth; 5
he who is skilled in attack flashes forth from the topmost heights of heaven. 1 Thus on the one hand we have ability to protect ourselves; on the other, a victory that is complete. 2
8. To see victory only when it is within the ken of the common herd is not the acme of excellence. 3
9. Neither is it the acme of excellence if you fight and conquer and the whole Empire says, "Well done!" 4
10. To lift an autumn hair is no sign of great strength; 1 to see sun and moon is no sign of sharp sight; to hear the noise of thunder is no sign of a quick ear. 2
11. What the ancients called a clever fighter is one who not only wins, but excels in winning with ease. 3
12. Hence his victories bring him neither reputation for wisdom nor credit for courage. 4
p. 30
13. He wins his battles by making no mistakes. 1 Making no mistakes is what establishes the certainty of victory, for it means conquering an enemy that is already defeated. 2
Ken (Old Texican)| 11.30.09 @ 8:24PM
Dear Chinaman copy/paster.
Mr. Sun was a brilliant man. I have utilized his thought for thirty years, and am therefore quite self sufficient.
Chinese have a horrible weakness though, and that weakness is arrogance. That is why the tiny Japanese islands kicked their ever-loving butts...until we intervened.
Chinese do not have a clue about building a "civil society". Everything is "family/village" to them, even today.
As Mr. Sun actually says, which you cannot fathom, is that..."he wins by making no mistakes..."
Well...dumbbunny you missed Mr. Sun's most striking declarations: Honestly, I cannot remember all the characters, but something like:
"If you are on death ground.....attack with all your might!"
We here in Texas live by that. Remember the Alamo!
Margie| 11.30.09 @ 8:56PM
Ps. 91:7: "A thousand may fall at your side, ten thousand at your right hand; but it will not come near you."
Ps. 118:6&7: "With the LORD on my side I do not fear. What can man do to me? The LORD is on my side to help me; I shall look in triumph on those who hate me."
Ken (Old Texican)| 11.30.09 @ 9:33PM
Margie,
Thank you for bringing those old truths to mind.
Tousands may fall at my side, and I may be one. Carry on.
Ken
Pingback| 11.30.09 @ 10:02PM
Unique Antique Black African America Bottle Doll -blu | The African Art Store links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Flack| 11.30.09 @ 10:08PM
Well Appleby, if the Canucks have such an "inferior" government health care system, why do they keep kicking our as*es in hockey? We have ten times their population! Maybe those guys up North are doing something right after all. They sure as h*ll are in good shape. Empires fall when they become oblivious to their own shortcomings.
Proverbs 3: 14-15 | 11.30.09 @ 10:27PM
=)
13 Happy is the man that findeth wisdom, and the man that getteth understanding.
14 For the merchandise of it is better than the merchandise of silver, and the gain thereof than fine gold.
Marcell| 11.30.09 @ 10:47PM
I told my 85 year old grandfather that we are still fighting the Civil War, & our side is still winning.
I also told him that I was proud to be one of those are on the front line, & we are about to basically kick the people that buy into the old Dixiecrat rhetoric out of the mainstream; with the support enough of the good Republicans.
All we have to do is gain one extra seat in the House & Senate during the next election, & conserva-poop will take a back seat to a REAL big Republican tent that is based on logic & reasonable values ; not an ideology.
Forcing the Repubs to step their game up is my example of my love for capitalism & REAL competition, & I am proud of the fact the Fighting Dems got my back.
Pingback| 11.30.09 @ 11:03PM
Unique Antique Black African America Bottle Doll -blu | The African Art Store links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Pingback| 11.30.09 @ 11:19PM
Donny Most « All About The Politics links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Smash Mouth Football| 11.30.09 @ 11:37PM
Olbermann on Afghanistan: Get out now
Nov. 30: In a Special Comment, Countdown's
Keith Olbermann argues that in the face political and financial opportunism, not to mention outright lies about the war in Afghanistan, and the stark historical warning represented by Vietnam, President Obama should make the change he promised during his campaign and pull U.S. troops out of Afghanistan.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22.....1#34214291
Ps. Yeah,"Whipping on them."
Pingback| 12.1.09 @ 12:02AM
Unique Antique Black African America Bottle Doll -blu | The African Art Store links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Good Night| 12.1.09 @ 12:25AM
God bless you =)
Todd Webster| 12.1.09 @ 1:29AM
Could it be that mercantilist, keiretsu-type clusters of suppliers through the chain might somehow exclude foreign firms from getting into the mass production benefits of economies of scale? Buyers may be loyal to their groups, as well, thus inadvertently bypassing foreign products and would-be competitors, might they not? Having a daughter at a Sydney, Australia high school where 90% of the student body is of Chinese background, suggests they are not only good students, but also do in fact learn from those who are not Chinese. This aspect may deliver the under-estimated staying power of Chinese competitiveness, and in turn, military might.
Do not underestimate the Chinese. The dragon has awoken!
Yosemeti Sam| 12.1.09 @ 11:03AM
Morphing America via liberal schemes:
" ... Despite the attempts of liberal multiculturalists in our educational system and government, America still retains much of its "melting pot" ethos ...."
Therein lies the spartan core of America -
viva le résistance.
51st State| 12.2.09 @ 10:27PM
You're reliving the Glory Years. True, American companies like Apple and Google were small players or non-existent thirty years ago. What you 'forgot' to mention was that LG, Samsung, Haier, Kia, CNOOC, Tata, Mittal etc. were virtually unheard of as well. But that was back in the day when Chrysler and Ford ruled, the American auto parts industry was American, and American culture ruled the open movie screens of the world and not a single Chinese university made the rankings. Hell, Seven-Eleven wasn't Japanese back then and we didn't have to scrape together $11,000,000,000,000 to have exactly Dick Squat. As for American knowhow, sure, it's still there; it's just that now we have 3 billion non-Americans who have similar aspirations. and who are just as smart as we are. Rome, down, British Empire, sun set. Next, America. You CHOOSE to never see the one that hits you and you'll never know how many won't miss you when you're just another country.
secondeye| 2.25.10 @ 10:02PM
The Government has made the people of America so dependent that they can make their own food or technology or clothing, They all imported from other countries and due to this those countries are export to US also get crush in this recession period just because of interdependency on one another. Collection agencies