The Recession Spectator
Don’t Count America Out
The popular view notwithstanding, we are not in inexorable economic decline.
Is the United States in inexorable economic decline, destined to be overshadowed by an emerging Chinese economic superpower? This seems to be a popular view among commentators of various political persuasions. I am happy to report, however, that America’s economic demise is not around the corner.
One of the most frequently cited examples of American economic decline, particularly from those on the Right, is the decline of the manufacturing sector (which now accounts for only about 12% of GDP). I remember hearing the argument that we are economically weak because “we don’t make things here anymore” as far back as the mid-1980s. Yet, as pervasive and long-standing as this view is, it is wrong.
The largest private employer in my hometown, San Diego, is Qualcomm. Qualcomm did not exist prior to 1985. Two of the six largest private employers in the greater Seattle region are Microsoft (founded as a two-man company in 1975) and Amazon (founded in 1994). The largest employer in Idaho is Micron Technology (founded in 1978). Thirty years ago, Amgen, Apple, Cisco, E-Bay, EMC, Genentech, Google, and Oracle did not exist, or were tiny companies. American companies all, they are now all major employers in the United States. While commentators have been wringing their hands over the decline of U.S. manufacturing, the American economy, through American entrepreneurship, has revolutionized the world in which we live. And this transformation has not been achieved through shedding jobs or replacing high paying jobs with low paying ones. Over the last 30 years, real (inflation adjusted) average hourly earnings have remained steady, and the unemployment rate for most of the 20 years prior to the start of the current recession, remained under 6%.
When wage and benefit costs are not the overriding factor, and in states and localities where government has not imposed unduly burdensome taxes and regulations, locating manufacturing operations in the United States is viable. The comparative advantage of lower production costs in lesser-developed nations, however, will be insurmountable in many instances. But in the modern technology economy, it is not so important where our tennis shoes or toaster ovens, or even cell phones or circuit boards, are stamped out, but where the ideas behind them — the design, the computer code, or pharmacological compound — is created. The greatest value add, and hence the best paying jobs, are not typically in traditional manufacturing, but in research and development. And, as would be expected in what is still, relatively, the freest large economy in the world, it is the American economy that has been, and still is, the driving force in these endeavors.
Despite the fact that the technological revolutions of the past 30 years have been achieved through the dynamism of American free enterprise, the Obama administration is not enamored with American capitalism and believes that we need a big government push for America to ride what it has identified as the next big technology wave — “green energy” — and has set itself up as the “creator” of thousands of new “green jobs.” In typical government style, the Obama administration intends to “create” these jobs through regulation, taxation, and subsidies. While this may prove a boon to some industries that otherwise would not have done so well, like various environmental consulting firms, and uneconomical “alternative” fuels (witness our decades-long support of ethanol), the only thing that is guaranteed to come of this meddling is that more manufacturing will be shifted from American factories, powered by relatively clean coal, oil, or natural gas fueled power plants, to Chinese factories powered by the dirtiest coal power plants in the world. The good news, however, is that much of the current administration’s environmental agenda (particularly cap-and-trade) appears destined for indefinite delay.
Can we continue to lead in technology when our schools are struggling, particularly in math and science? That is an issue, but one that is ameliorated by the fact that, to the chagrin of many developing nations, many of the best and brightest from around the world are attracted to the United States, not just because they can make more money working here, but also because they can live a better, more fulfilling life here. One of the compelling points made by Amy Chua in her otherwise not very compelling book, Day of Empire, is that it is still relatively easy for anyone in the world to become “American.” We are already a multi-ethnic society that is relatively welcoming of self-supporting immigrants. This is not the case, for instance, in China. Not only do few outsiders dream of working and living under the Chinese system, it is also near impossible for an outsider to “become Chinese.” Despite the attempts of liberal multiculturalists in our educational system and government, America still retains much of its “melting pot” ethos. And as long as Obama and his ideological allies in Congress do not succeed in turning America into a variation of a European welfare state, many talented people from around the world will be drawn to all that America has to offer.
Still others worry, however, about the persistent American trade deficit. These people contend that our imbalance of trade shows that our prosperity has been an illusion, fed by “living beyond our means.” But the fact is, the trade deficit indicates nothing of the sort.
The trade deficit is one of those figures that does not convey a lot of meaning. All it says is that we have been importing more goods and services than we are exporting. In the zero-sum, debit and credit world of accounting, that means we are running a deficit, and the natural conclusion is that that is bad, and that by running a deficit we somehow are in debt to the rest of the world. That is not true.
A trade deficit is neither inherently good nor bad. It could be caused because the domestic economy is comparatively stronger than the rest of the world (so, creating comparatively more wealth, we buy more from others than they buy from us). The last year the U.S. had a trade surplus was the recession year of 1991. China’s current huge trade surplus is largely the result of its being poor. China has a large underutilized (cheap) work force, which until very recently had little disposable income.
A key point to keep in mind is that the foreign goods we import are bought and paid for; we don’t go into “debt” by importing. Foreigners have accepted our dollars for their goods. They can then turn around and buy American goods with those dollars, buy U.S. dollar denominated investments, convert them to their own currency or trade them for other currencies to buy goods from other countries, or just hold them as foreign exchange reserves. If they don’t want to buy U.S. goods or dollar denominated assets, there will be downward pressure on the value of the U.S. dollar. And that’s really the most instructive thing a trade deficit tells us. A persistent trade deficit will likely result in a lower trade value of the U.S. dollar, meaning prices of imports will rise and the price of our exports to foreigners will fall. This, over time, usually results in imports declining and exports increasing, as the markets continually seek equilibrium.
These market dynamics are, of course, sometimes skirted by governments setting artificial values for their currencies. For instance, the Chinese government has pegged the value of its currency, the yuan, to the U.S. dollar, effectively preventing appreciation of the yuan versus the dollar, thus serving to keep Chinese goods cheap, protecting its export driven economy not just from U.S. competition, but also from competition from other emerging low cost producers such as Vietnam and Thailand.
THE ONE SCENARIO THAT REALLY IS BAD NEWS, is a trade deficit not supported by internally created wealth but by depleted savings or debt. This, despite much talk to the contrary, is not the condition of the United States. For the past 30 years, net saving (which includes government deficits), has been positive every year except for 2008. In the 10 years leading up to 2008, average annual net saving was $420 billion. Pushed down by falling stock and home values, and a soaring federal deficit, 2008 was a negative $23 billion. Due to massive deficit spending at the federal level, 2009 will likely also be negative. There is good reason to fret about uncontrolled government spending and overextended consumers, but this does not appear to be the mechanism by which our trade deficits of the past 25 years have been supported.
The U.S. economy does not need the government to step in to set up trade barriers to protect manufacturing, or subsidize industries that government bureaucrats believe aren’t getting enough investment through the free market, or to tax and regulate some businesses out of existence to make room for “better” or “cleaner” ones. What has made the U.S. an economic powerhouse is the relative lack of such interventions.
But if the U.S. economy is not rotting from within, are we still destined to be overtaken by the Chinese economic juggernaut, fueled by its vast population and cheap labor? No. Upon further scrutiny, the Chinese tiger is far less formidable than many have portrayed, and its rise to world economic dominance is hardly inevitable.
First, consider that from the time Deng Xiaoping introduced meaningful market reforms in the 1980s the Chinese economy has predictably grown prodigiously — but from a very small base. The Chinese economy is still only one-fourth the size of the U.S. economy. And that is using official Chinese figures. Most economists regard Chinese GDP numbers with some degree of skepticism, and the ways the Chinese do their calculations is somewhat questionable (such as including the purchase and stockpiling of natural resources as GDP). Now that China is more developed, it will not realize the huge return on investment that it has on past grand infrastructure projects. And as China succeeds in growing its economy, inevitably its cost of producing goods and services (particularly wage rates) will increase. This will fuel the fabled Chinese domestic consumer (including the consumption of imports), but will also cause a slowdown in the growth of China-based production as other low cost countries become more competitive.
About the Author
Brandon Crocker is the chief financial officer of a commercial real estate development and management company in San Diego.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (74) | Leave a comment
Related Articles
More Articles by Brandon Crocker
More Articles From The Recession Spectator
http://spectator.org/archives/2009/11/30/dont-count-america-out
Follow us:
ADVERTISEMENT
SPONSORED LINKS
FLASHBACK TO: 1995
-
Pope Culture
A man of faith in a godless age is hitting Americans where it hurts.
-
Why the GOP Does Not, Like, Totally Suck
Mr. and Mrs. American Spectator Reader, let P.J. O’Rourke talk sense to your kids.
-
Dames at Sea
-
In the Absence of Guns
In Britain, defending your property can get you life.
-
The Metaphysical Martini
-
Counting the Costs of Clintonism
The debacle of this president’s administration is both a cause and a symptom of the decline of American values. Unless Congress impeaches him, that decline will go on unchecked. An eminent jurist surveys the damage and assesses the chances for the recovery of our culture.
-
Chuck McHagel
It won’t take long for conservatives to scratch this presidential wannabe off their 2008 scorecard.
-
The Legacy of Old John and Mother Fresh-Roasted
-
It’s the Best Time of the Year
The American Christmas, like the songs that celebrate it, makes room for everybody under the rainbow. Is that why so many people seem to be hostile to it?
-
The Bush Crack-Up
Was the President done in by the economy, or by the politics of the economy?
Clip of the Day
H/T to National Review Online
ADVERTISEMENT
Appleby| 11.30.09 @ 6:36AM
Once the unions have been squeezed out of manufacturing and retail, manufacturing will come back in the USA.
If you do not believe this is necessary, notice that the Winter Olympics are about to begin in Vancouver -- and their Emergency Med Techs are just about to go on strike.
Mark| 11.30.09 @ 2:50PM
Yes. And all the jobs will pay minimum wage. Yippee!
Pingback| 11.30.09 @ 6:36AM
Twitter Trackbacks for The American Spectator : Don't Count America Out [spectator.o links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Shamus| 11.30.09 @ 6:49AM
The writer is correct to identify leftist takeover of our government as a grave threat.
Pingback| 11.30.09 @ 7:00AM
Paying On Time - Credit Cards » Don’t Count America Out - Spectator.org links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Roy| 11.30.09 @ 8:48AM
The country that will clean our clocks if we don't quit taxing/regulating ourselves into oblivion isn't China but India.
Not that they don't also have huge problems, but the political system, whatever else it is, isn't "totalitarian". The government has its claws in the economy, but it has come a long way since the early 90's and is headed up, whereas the US, in electing Barney Frank and his spokesman, Barack Obama, is not.
Ken (Old Texican)| 11.30.09 @ 9:36AM
Mr. Crocker,
Good article. I do have one bone to pick with you however.
I have been CEO of two very large international companies. Yeah, we do need reasonable taxes and regulation...but please...put a point on it...American business needs a long term PROMISE of a stable, predictable business climate.
Growing a company, or a new industry niche, requires time. Sometimes several years. It is very difficult to do so when investors...don't know what loony tunes the gubmint is going to be playing in the coming years.
Lazy Jack | 11.30.09 @ 9:38AM
Several times in the last few months when overseas, I have been asked about the health of the U.S. national economy. As starry eyed as the rest of the world was with our new President, business people are beginning to see real storm clouds hovering over the U.S. Despite the popular media portrayal that the world rejoices in our misery, it seems that people in industry (average people like me) around the world are actually hoping that the U.S. finds a way to participate in a global recovery.
My answer to them has been that Americans are generally an optimistic community, willing to invest and take risks even in the most difficult times. My message is always that we will find a way to recovery. I do condition my comments, however, that in an environment where the U.S. government is spending an unprecedented 45% of GDP on government, we risk a return to 1937. For those that forget the history please recollect that after 5 years of monumental government subsumption of the U.S. economy during the depression, the economy was receding and unemployment was still over 19%. Those at the time could not imagine that all the government intervention was causing the continuation of the depression. They could only imagine that more government would solve the problem. To them, we had just not spent enough, or socialized enough of our society. If that sounds familiar, those themes are the ‘sturm und drang’ of the Democrats these days. Off the record I tell my friends overseas that four things keep me awake at night.
Leading the pack is the Heatlhcare legislation, fixing broken arms tomorrow for $1000 when they only cost $500 today. Next is the American Free Choice legislation. Within twenty months after the similar The Wagner Act passed in 1936 union membership doubled, but unemployment increased from 14% to 19%. Nice Trade off, to be repeated in 2010. Cap and Trade, our modern Smoot-Hawley, destined to send more jobs overseas and start more trade wars than any legislation since Smoot. Finally, the administrations weak dollar policy sort of speaks for itself. The U.S. can take any one of these and survive (the possible exception being healthcare). But can we take all four? I remain optimistic, but it feels a bit like a perfect storm of economic chicanery. Don't count us out, but don't bet the farm yet either.
Lazy Jack
http://thanksforthelaughs.word.....ng-report/
Bram| 11.30.09 @ 9:58AM
Roy - I've been involved in outsourcing work to India. In general one American employee is at least as productive as two Indians – particularly when quality / rework is a factor. Our problem is that the loaded cost of one American employee is more than twice that of an Indian.
Ken - Agreed. It's called capitalism. If nobody will invest capital because they fear the government will seize or destroy their investments (GM Bondholders), the system grinds to a halt. FDR's economic shenanigans kept the Depression going for over a decade.
Pingback| 11.30.09 @ 11:30AM
The American Spectator : Don't Count America Out | americantoday links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Oh, Hi Mark| 11.30.09 @ 11:51AM
"Due to massive deficit spending at the federal level, 2009 will likely also be negative. "
Really?
Tweety Bird| 11.30.09 @ 12:24PM
I tawt I taw a puddytat. I did! I did!
Marcell| 11.30.09 @ 1:05PM
“I am happy to report, however, that America's economic demise is not around the corner.”
--------------------
I guess some of you are starting to realize that the fear tactic isn’t working for you anymore.
9.12 DC TEA PARTY - MARCH FOOTAGE WITH INTERVIEWS
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lUPMjC9mq5Y
Not much is going to work because we have already figured you out.
Michael Tomlinson| 11.30.09 @ 2:23PM
Under Obama 1 out 8 adults is and 1 out of 4 children are on food stamps. Just another sign that Obama failed Presidency is the worst in US history.
Marcell| 11.30.09 @ 1:17PM
Despite the fact that the technological revolutions of the past 30 years have been achieved through the dynamism of American free enterprise, the Obama administration is not enamored with American capitalism and believes that we need a big government push for America to ride what it has identified as the next big technology wave -- "green energy" -- and has set itself up as the "creator" of thousands of new "green jobs.
Marcell: Please watch this youtube, & think about what are supporting when you buy the conserva- crap versions of capitalism.
Beijing Pollution Watch
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12llTOryD30
My mom has been living in a new house that has had solar panels on it for two years, & her electricity bill averages out to about $15.00 a month.
But, you should hate clean energy that won't cause much pollution, & will lower you electricity bill.
The leaders of the communist / socialist countries are pure 100% capitalist.
The conservative version of capitalism is more like the third world, socialist, & communist countries than what many of them try to define Democratic Party supporters as.
The conservatives ask the average citizen to expect nothing from our government, while those who support the rhetoric use the government to their advantage at all times.
Michael Tomlinson| 11.30.09 @ 2:25PM
More Americans are homeless and go to bed hungry under Barack Obama than previous Presidents. Not since Jimmy Carter have we seen such a failure in the White House as Obama and Democrats trying to make America a second tier or third world nation.
JimE| 11.30.09 @ 9:42PM
Marcell, truly you are an idiot, your constant opening and closing of your mother's refrigerator door costs her more than $15. It's also obvious you haven't taken the cost of the solar panels into consideration. Of course it's free to you, you are on welfare.
Derek Leaberry| 11.30.09 @ 1:28PM
As the United States continues its way down the road to Third World demographic status, our economy will reflect that fact. Not only will the average American worker be less intelligent in the future, Americans will be more inclined to support the Democratic Party in politics because of all the goodies the Democrats promise.
Ken (Old Texican)| 11.30.09 @ 7:13PM
Derek dear,
Go to your room and speak, quietly, to yourself. heh.
We real Americans won't go third world. We will drag you cowards, kicking and screaming, along behind us, to the shining hill.
Marcell| 11.30.09 @ 1:42PM
Despite the fact that the technological revolutions of the past 30 years have been achieved through the dynamism of American free enterprise, the Obama administration is not enamored with American capitalism and believes that we need a big government push for America to ride what it has identified as the next big technology wave -- "green energy" -- and has set itself up as the "creator" of thousands of new "green jobs." In typical government style, the Obama administration intends to "create" these jobs through regulation, taxation, and subsidies.
This rhetoric is just a simple play on the average person’s intelligence. The writer is attempting to give the false notion that the federal government is not, & has not been, heavily invested in newer technologies… “FALSE!!”
Here is a list of federal subsidies:
Number of Federal Subsidy Programs Is Soaring
http://www.cato.org/pubs/tbb/tbb_0611-41.pdf
Note: It’s dated 2006.
Finally, I guarantee you that the unemployment rate would raise to around 20% if we took away the federal subsidy that helps keep most businesses open; the federal FOOD STAMPS subsidy.
Even the businesses that have nothing to do with food stamps will lose a large sum of their profits, because people would have less money to purchase your goods, because they need their cash for food.
Yeah, that makes Bu$h sense to the Conserva-sheeple.
Michael Tomlinson| 11.30.09 @ 2:27PM
One out 8 adults and 1/4 of America's children are on food stamps thanks to Barack Obama and Democrats. Real unemployment or under employment is at a record 17.5% and growing thanks to Obama and Democrats. Brilliant!
Marcell| 11.30.09 @ 1:48PM
Derek Leaberry| 11.30.09 @ 1:28PM
As the United States continues its way down the road to Third World demographic status, our economy will reflect that fact. Not only will the average American worker be less intelligent in the future, Americans will be more inclined to support the Democratic Party in politics because of all the goodies the Democrats promise.
----
It is not like the conservatives rhetoric actually makes any sense as a counter.
You guys & gals are masters of allowing yourselves to fall for any Consera- trick.
It seems like you don't even realize the role you play in helping dumb down the average American by mentally purchasing & verbally selling the conserva-poop.
Michael Tomlinson| 11.30.09 @ 2:29PM
Moron understand it is under Obama and Democrats that more Americans are homeless and hungry than under Republicans. The only way to stop the pain is oust Democrats who don't give a tinker's damn about real people. You'd be better off reading Mother Jones than TAS.
Pingback| 11.30.09 @ 2:32PM
African American Collectible Porcelain Doll Angelique | The African Art Store links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Marcell| 11.30.09 @ 2:50PM
Na
Marcell| 11.30.09 @ 2:56PM
Michael Tomlinson| 11.30.09 @ 2:27PM
One out 8 adults and 1/4 of America's children are on food stamps thanks to Barack Obama and Democrats. Real unemployment or under employment is at a record 17.5% and growing thanks to Obama and Democrats. Brilliant!
--------
This is your brain on dumb.
This is your brain on dumb| 11.30.09 @ 2:59PM
Michael Tomlinson| 11.30.09 @ 2:25PM
More Americans are homeless and go to bed hungry under Barack Obama than previous Presidents. Not since Jimmy Carter have we seen such a failure in the White House as Obama and Democrats trying to make America a second tier or third world nation.
P.S. This is your classic, "I hate Dems, so blame it on the Dems," rhetoric.
Brad| 11.30.09 @ 3:27PM
An interesting aspect of this is trying to promote increased multiculturalism in hopes of getting better human economic captial for the U.S., while also having government grow larger to ensure egalitarian advancement to ensure everybodies multicultural rights.
Marcell| 11.30.09 @ 3:29PM
I must be doing a great job dissecting that story, because you are coming up with phony excuses to screen out my post. That does nothing but inspire me.
... Losers =)
Marcell| 11.30.09 @ 3:34PM
Brad
We don't need to advance further advance multiculturalism & all your other fears, because you lost those wars in the 1980's.
This is ONLY about gathering the info needed to defeat you.
Brad| 11.30.09 @ 4:13PM
Test scores indicate we do in order to sustain current levels of GDP. Where's your empirical evidence?
Pat| 11.30.09 @ 5:01PM
America's coming economic problems will certainly increase due to our rising baggage of issues that can't and won't go away with "stimulus" money or statistically manipulated "green shoots of economoic recovery". One such baggage issue is our crushing public burden of unemployables. For you hard core capitalists out there, it's like trying to swim across the lake with a 50 pound concrete block strapped to your back. And the government is there to make sure that America's wealth generating geniuses don't wiggle out of their heavy backpacks; in fact, Washington is determined to keep adding more deadweight to the struggling swimmer's load. And good luck on winning the swim meet.
Take Detroit Michigan for instance. Once the incredibly productive Arsenal of Democracy, Detroit is now the Arsenal of Welfare. Today's Detroit Free Press describes the new mayor's problems in turning Detroit around - naively claiming it will take 20 years for a turnaround to show results. Detroit has a high crime rate, a 30% unemployment rate, a massive budget deficit, a high school graduation rate of only 25 to 30% of entering freshmen and is losing 10,000 residents a year to other venues. About one third of the city's large land mass of 130 square miles is deserted, 80,000 empty domiciles paying no property taxes, deer grazing in the former family backyards and no prospects for improvement with about a third of the residents living below the poverty line.
So what, you say - other cities in other regions are still creating wealth, so why does it matter? It matters because American wealth will be diverted into the futile task of "saving Detroit". Notice the Free Press doesn't ask why we should save Detroit - it's a given that Detroit must somehow be saved. Guess who will be doing the saving? Will Detroit pull itself up by its bootstraps and return to its former glory? Right and the British will regain their lost the Sun Never Sets Empire any day now.
How many other Detroit's, struggling for survival but loyally voting Democratic Party, are there? Look around our nation - what do we do with massive unemployables in numerous decaying cities - folks who demand much more in living wages but are worth less than the typical unskilled worker in emerging countries? America has an even chance of becoming a vast Detroit with a few productive souls supporting a vast army of entitled citizens who can't compete with your average Mr. Wong or Mr. Gupta.
Ken (Old Texican)| 11.30.09 @ 7:32PM
Dear Pat
We productive folks have been pretty amicable to carrying our less fortunate brothers and sisters, all down through our history.
You are correct on many symptoms above, but you are down right stupid in your conclusions.
Duh!
Mr. Wong and Mr. Gupta do not have a job without productive Americans. We are still the biggest market for goods and services, (by a factor of 4), of all the other markets in the world. If we quit buying their stuff...they starve....literally.
...unemployables are not really "unemployable". They just haven't gotten hungry enough yet....and their color TVs with cable have not been turned off yet.
The day will come...soon.
Marcell | 11.30.09 @ 7:09PM
Romer: Rising jobless rate a 'stark reminder'
Nov. 6: Christina Romer, the chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, joins msnbc's Dylan Ratigan to discuss the state of the U.S. economy as the unemployment rate tops 10 percent for the first time since 1983.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22.....9#33719229
Marcell| 11.30.09 @ 7:18PM
You are being outsmarted.
All Democrats have to do is keep their eye on the prize, while conservatives are hoping & praying our economy continue to fail for their benefit.
Marcell| 11.30.09 @ 7:27PM
Inside look at the financial crisis
Oct. 22: Morning Meeting's Dylan Ratigan and Andrew Ross Sorkin of the New York Times discuss the concept of "too big to fail," as well as the Obama administration's efforts to prevent another economic collapse.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22.....8#33430968
To American Spectater | 11.30.09 @ 7:35PM
You continue to NOT allow the political strategy that I wrote to be posted; no matter how many times I post it. That speaks in volumes.
Please post my response to the columnist support for unfair triad.
Ken (Old Texican)| 11.30.09 @ 7:37PM
Hello Marcell, oh squirrelly one.
Oh yes, we are being "outsmarted", by little titty babies like you. Riiiiiight! heh.
Are you still outsmarting your dumb mommie to keep feeding you? heh.
Hang in there, and keep mistaking her love for dumbness.
Marcell| 11.30.09 @ 7:40PM
I am posting links, because I know that you conservatives want to create an illusion filled with misinformation.
Wall Street to take a hit?
Oct. 22: A Morning Meeting panel discusses the Obama administration's decision to set new limits on how much bailed-out companies can pay their top executives.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22.....0#33431350
Marcell| 11.30.09 @ 7:47PM
The liberals control nearly 80% of the media outlets, & we know you are engaging in Wile E. Coyote tactics; you know what happened to the road runner Wile E. Conservatives.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hz65AOjabtM
Dear Old Tex| 11.30.09 @ 8:03PM
IV. TACTICAL DISPOSITIONS 1.
1. Sun Tzŭ said: The good fighters of old first put themselves beyond the possibility of defeat, and then waited for an opportunity of defeating the enemy.
2. To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself. 2
3. Thus the good fighter is able to secure himself against defeat, 1 but cannot make certain of defeating the enemy. 2
4: Hence the saying: One may know how to conquer without being able to do it. 3
5. Security against defeat implies defensive tactics; ability to defeat the enemy means taking the offensive. 4
6. Standing on the defensive indicates insufficient strength: attacking, a superabundance of strength.
7. The general who is skilled in defense hides in the most secret recesses of the earth; 5
he who is skilled in attack flashes forth from the topmost heights of heaven. 1 Thus on the one hand we have ability to protect ourselves; on the other, a victory that is complete. 2
8. To see victory only when it is within the ken of the common herd is not the acme of excellence. 3
9. Neither is it the acme of excellence if you fight and conquer and the whole Empire says, "Well done!" 4
10. To lift an autumn hair is no sign of great strength; 1 to see sun and moon is no sign of sharp sight; to hear the noise of thunder is no sign of a quick ear. 2
11. What the ancients called a clever fighter is one who not only wins, but excels in winning with ease. 3
12. Hence his victories bring him neither reputation for wisdom nor credit for courage. 4
p. 30
13. He wins his battles by making no mistakes. 1 Making no mistakes is what establishes the certainty of victory, for it means conquering an enemy that is already defeated. 2
Ken (Old Texican)| 11.30.09 @ 8:24PM
Dear Chinaman copy/paster.
Mr. Sun was a brilliant man. I have utilized his thought for thirty years, and am therefore quite self sufficient.
Chinese have a horrible weakness though, and that weakness is arrogance. That is why the tiny Japanese islands kicked their ever-loving butts...until we intervened.
Chinese do not have a clue about building a "civil society". Everything is "family/village" to them, even today.
As Mr. Sun actually says, which you cannot fathom, is that..."he wins by making no mistakes..."
Well...dumbbunny you missed Mr. Sun's most striking declarations: Honestly, I cannot remember all the characters, but something like:
"If you are on death ground.....attack with all your might!"
We here in Texas live by that. Remember the Alamo!
Margie| 11.30.09 @ 8:56PM
Ps. 91:7: "A thousand may fall at your side, ten thousand at your right hand; but it will not come near you."
Ps. 118:6&7: "With the LORD on my side I do not fear. What can man do to me? The LORD is on my side to help me; I shall look in triumph on those who hate me."
Ken (Old Texican)| 11.30.09 @ 9:33PM
Margie,
Thank you for bringing those old truths to mind.
Tousands may fall at my side, and I may be one. Carry on.
Ken
Pingback| 11.30.09 @ 10:02PM
Unique Antique Black African America Bottle Doll -blu | The African Art Store links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Flack| 11.30.09 @ 10:08PM
Well Appleby, if the Canucks have such an "inferior" government health care system, why do they keep kicking our as*es in hockey? We have ten times their population! Maybe those guys up North are doing something right after all. They sure as h*ll are in good shape. Empires fall when they become oblivious to their own shortcomings.
Proverbs 3: 14-15 | 11.30.09 @ 10:27PM
=)
13 Happy is the man that findeth wisdom, and the man that getteth understanding.
14 For the merchandise of it is better than the merchandise of silver, and the gain thereof than fine gold.
Marcell| 11.30.09 @ 10:47PM
I told my 85 year old grandfather that we are still fighting the Civil War, & our side is still winning.
I also told him that I was proud to be one of those are on the front line, & we are about to basically kick the people that buy into the old Dixiecrat rhetoric out of the mainstream; with the support enough of the good Republicans.
All we have to do is gain one extra seat in the House & Senate during the next election, & conserva-poop will take a back seat to a REAL big Republican tent that is based on logic & reasonable values ; not an ideology.
Forcing the Repubs to step their game up is my example of my love for capitalism & REAL competition, & I am proud of the fact the Fighting Dems got my back.
Pingback| 11.30.09 @ 11:03PM
Unique Antique Black African America Bottle Doll -blu | The African Art Store links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Pingback| 11.30.09 @ 11:19PM
Donny Most « All About The Politics links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Smash Mouth Football| 11.30.09 @ 11:37PM
Olbermann on Afghanistan: Get out now
Nov. 30: In a Special Comment, Countdown's
Keith Olbermann argues that in the face political and financial opportunism, not to mention outright lies about the war in Afghanistan, and the stark historical warning represented by Vietnam, President Obama should make the change he promised during his campaign and pull U.S. troops out of Afghanistan.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22.....1#34214291
Ps. Yeah,"Whipping on them."
Pingback| 12.1.09 @ 12:02AM
Unique Antique Black African America Bottle Doll -blu | The African Art Store links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Good Night| 12.1.09 @ 12:25AM
God bless you =)
Todd Webster| 12.1.09 @ 1:29AM
Could it be that mercantilist, keiretsu-type clusters of suppliers through the chain might somehow exclude foreign firms from getting into the mass production benefits of economies of scale? Buyers may be loyal to their groups, as well, thus inadvertently bypassing foreign products and would-be competitors, might they not? Having a daughter at a Sydney, Australia high school where 90% of the student body is of Chinese background, suggests they are not only good students, but also do in fact learn from those who are not Chinese. This aspect may deliver the under-estimated staying power of Chinese competitiveness, and in turn, military might.
Do not underestimate the Chinese. The dragon has awoken!
Yosemeti Sam| 12.1.09 @ 11:03AM
Morphing America via liberal schemes:
" ... Despite the attempts of liberal multiculturalists in our educational system and government, America still retains much of its "melting pot" ethos ...."
Therein lies the spartan core of America -
viva le résistance.
51st State| 12.2.09 @ 10:27PM
You're reliving the Glory Years. True, American companies like Apple and Google were small players or non-existent thirty years ago. What you 'forgot' to mention was that LG, Samsung, Haier, Kia, CNOOC, Tata, Mittal etc. were virtually unheard of as well. But that was back in the day when Chrysler and Ford ruled, the American auto parts industry was American, and American culture ruled the open movie screens of the world and not a single Chinese university made the rankings. Hell, Seven-Eleven wasn't Japanese back then and we didn't have to scrape together $11,000,000,000,000 to have exactly Dick Squat. As for American knowhow, sure, it's still there; it's just that now we have 3 billion non-Americans who have similar aspirations. and who are just as smart as we are. Rome, down, British Empire, sun set. Next, America. You CHOOSE to never see the one that hits you and you'll never know how many won't miss you when you're just another country.
secondeye| 2.25.10 @ 10:02PM
The Government has made the people of America so dependent that they can make their own food or technology or clothing, They all imported from other countries and due to this those countries are export to US also get crush in this recession period just because of interdependency on one another. Collection agencies