The American Spectator : Michael Ledeen on Iran and Democracy

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Michael Ledeen on Iran and Democracy

By Tom Bethell from the November 2009 issue

An interview.

(Page 2 of 2)

TB: Such as?
ML: Sabotage. Lots of ways to do that. I think we can assume that the Israelis have plenty of people on the ground. How close can they get to the labs? I don't know. If you just bring down the electrical system in the area of the launch site, that not only stops that missile, it stops all missiles. Somebody throws the switch and there's no electricity. Maybe they have backup generators, maybe not. One of the more generally unappreciated elements of geopolitical analysis is what I call the f***-up factor. Iran has one of the highest that I have ever seen. They have wrecked everything.

TB: For example?
ML: My favorite story from the September 18th uprising was the soccer game. Big stadium. 100,000 men, wearing green, the color of the revolution. It's broadcast live on national television, in color. The producer sees the sea of green and says get rid of the color. So they broadcast in black and white. Then the men in the stadium start chanting "death to Gaza," "death to Hamas," "death to Hezbollah." So he says turn off the sound. So the country is watching this silent soccer game. But they forgot to turn off the radio. They screw up everything. So I'm not so sure they have backup generators. I just don't know.

TB: You finessed the question of whether U.S. military action would be a good idea by saying Obama isn't going to do it anyway.
ML: I think we should support the opposition; refuse to recognize Ahmadinejad as a legitimate president, demand the release of political prisoners, come out with all our human rights cannons firing. And we should be broadcasting into Iran all the time about what's going on.

TB: We're not doing that?
ML: They're not doing what they should be doing, which is get information from Isfahan and make sure people in Tehran know what's happening. That's what they need. With the social networking technologies, like Twitter and e-mail, the regime can get in the middle and makes it harder for them to communicate. Paradoxically it's easier for someone with a cell phone in Iran to call someone in New York, tell them what's going on, and then put that up on some website, than it is to communicate within Iran.

TB: Ahmadinejad's rhetoric seems to have been calculated to provoke us. Wouldn't a military at-tack unite Iran behind him?
ML: I never understood that argument. I mean, the Iranians hate this regime. They're out there risking their lives to bring it down. Anybody who showed up on the 18th wearing green and carry-ing a sign risked his life.

TB: Obviously the best thing would be for the rebellion to prevail.
ML: It will change the whole world. It would be one of the most dramatic events of recent years. It would pull the plug on no end of terrorist organizations. The files and archives of the Iranian intelligence sources will be invaluable. They would contain the history of modern terrorism. Hezbollah will disappear, because they'll have no money and no more intelligence. And I wouldn't be surprised to see Assad fall in Syria, because Syria is just an Iranian colony.

TB: If the Islamic regime is overthrown, what will replace it?
ML: I think a secular regime, and for this paradoxical reason: the leading senior clerics will insist on it.
The grand ayatollahs don't want an Islamic Republic anymore. They have seen that it is very bad for Islam. They have rediscovered Tocqueville. Religion works best when it is a free choice.

TB: Suppose a new, moderate regime takes power. Then they say Iran needs nukes anyway so they will continue on that path. What then?
ML: Mir Hossein Mousavi, the opposition candidate in the June election, said during the campaign that Iran should fulfill its international obligations and that all nuclear activity should be transparent. If he changes his mind then we will have a problem similar to the one we have today, except with a more reasonable regime, more responsive to the Iranian people. So far as I can tell, the people want a government that tends to their needs rather than international adventures. It might be rather like Indian nukes, about which we don't worry endlessly.

TB: Iraq. Was invading Iraq and taking down Saddam a good idea?
ML: It's hard not to be in favor of taking down monsters. But what I said at the time was that Iraq should not be at the top of the list. Iran should be. If this is part of the war on terror, Iran is always on top of the U.S. government's list of terrorism sponsors. Iran is much more important than Iraq in that context. And if you do Iran first you'll find that Iraq is a lot easier. In Iran you don't need any military. It's a political operation. All the people who have been saying be nice to Iran, don't criticize Iran, avoid conflict with Iran, are making a military war more likely. Because if in the end Iran has the bomb, we are left with the Sarkozy Option: Iran with the bomb, or Bomb Iran. Leaders may find that those are the two only options.

TB: Are you prepared to make any kind of prediction as to how things will come out in Iraq?
ML: No, I rarely predict things. The only thing that I think is safe to predict right now is that the regime in Iran is dead.

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About the Author

Tom Bethell is a senior editor of The American Spectator and author of The Politically Incorrect Guide to Science, The Noblest Triumph: Property and Prosperity Through the Ages, and most recently Questioning Einstein: Is Relativity Necessary? (2009).

Letter to the Editor View all comments (26) | Leave a comment

Kaveh| 11.10.09 @ 7:30AM

You do not need to be a genius to guess that the six do not want to impose a new set of sanctions on Iran. We can understand their motivations : the Europeans have important commercial interests in Iran, mostly oil related, that could suffer from newer sanctions ; and Washington needs a strategic alliance with the mullahs in order to dominate the Islamist agitation in the Muslim and oil rich provinces of it’s opponents ; Caucasia in Russia and Xinjiang in China.

http://www.iran-resist.org/rubrique32.html

Dai Alanye| 11.10.09 @ 11:54AM

"Washington needs a strategic alliance with the mullahs in order to dominate the Islamist agitation in the Muslim and oil rich provinces of it’s opponents…"

Ah, if only Washington were so wise, so Machiavellian. But foreign policy in Washington, especially under Obama, is ruled by emotion rather than reason.

Alan Brooks| 11.10.09 @ 2:01PM

"An admirer of Machiavelli"

He was centuries ahead of his time. Who would you choose?: Ruhollah Khomeini, or Machiavelli?
I choose the latter.

Alan Brooks| 11.13.09 @ 9:08PM

Machiavelli would move Israel out of the Mideast, before her enemies consolidate.
There's no light at the end of the tunnel; you can't trust Ahmadinejad across the street even if both his parents are with him.

Anthony| 11.10.09 @ 7:54AM

Know more about Michael Ledeen

http://www.salon.com/news/opin.....index.html

Jim O'Brien| 11.10.09 @ 8:32AM

Ledeen says: "Those who believe that I am part of some ‘hawkish gang' just haven't noticed that I am opposed to invasion or bombing the nuclear facilities [in Iran]. "

He is wrong. The only solution is to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities, neuter its military forces, bomb its wells and pipelines, and destroy all major electric generating plants. This will result in regime change.

Iran is supplying weapons and money used by terrorists threatening Israel and the world, and being used right now to kill our troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. Iran has repeatedly demonstrated that it understands nothing except force. If we don't neuter Iran (and we definitely won't while Obama is in office), then ultimately millions of people will pay with their lives when Iran uses nuclear weapons. A much wider war could then result.

Dai Alanye| 11.10.09 @ 12:02PM

Ledeen is wise. It's far better for us to play the part of France vs Britain in the 1770s that that of Germany vs Russia in the 1930s.

When we go to war against the Iranian regime it should be clearly in support of the Iranian people. Let the first step be to recognize a government in exile through which to funnel aid to the uprising.

Alan Brooks| 11.10.09 @ 2:20PM

If we don't neuter Iran (and we definitely won't "while Obama is in office), then ultimately millions of people will pay with their lives when Iran uses nuclear weapons. A much wider war could then result."

Some top Iranians want Armageddon as per their '12th Imam' beliefs.

Margie| 11.10.09 @ 7:05PM

If we did do that, and I've heard much discussion about it on radio programs (conservative, mostly). But if we did, do you believe that both Russia & China would turn on us, and if so, would we be able to handle it?

Alan Brooks| 11.13.09 @ 10:08PM

sounds like the book of Revelation.

Tim| 11.10.09 @ 9:59AM

To my mind, the fundamental error we make is that idea that the Iranians have a price for which they will sell their national identity . Many of our own politicians are bought and sold daily, thus they cannot conceive of a regime that will not sell out- for money, awards, media approval.
The Iranians seek power , they crave the fear of other nations confronted by Iran wielding that power. To paraphrase Orwell, their vision is not one of happy and contented Iranians (or anyone else) going about their daily lives in peace and prosperity. The vision is a boot stamping on a face, forever.
This was dramatically enacted before our eyes this past spring as Iranians beat and shot their own people in the streets.

JimBob| 11.10.09 @ 12:10PM

Ledeen Doctrine ”Every ten years or so, the United States needs to pick up some small crappy little country and throw it against the wall, just to show the world we mean business”

Dump the Neocons

http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=10935

Ed Crane founder of the Cato Institute

Hardius| 11.10.09 @ 12:30PM

Considering how incompetent our elected officials are, I think we should let other nations choose their own destiny. No matter what the situation is on the ground our elected officials will only make it worse for us. They only know fraud, graft, bribes, and kickbacks. Their grasp of what is actually going on anywhere is nonexistent, look at how they screwed Honduras and then ask yourself if you really want them to get involved in the workings of a nuclear power. If Iranians want to be free they will find a way and they don't want our help because they are aware of the price we charge for getting involved. How about we mind our own business and let Iran do the same.

Jim O'Brien| 11.10.09 @ 1:40PM

When do you expect Iran to start minding its own business? They are threatening Israel and the whole region with nuclear weapons, and supplying conventional weapons which are being used right now to kill American soldiers. Should the U.S. government just continue to ignore Iran's active role in killing our troops?

JimBob| 11.10.09 @ 2:11PM

Ehud Barak, Israels most decorated soldier and current Defense Minister recently said Iran is no threat to Israel.

The one thing the very unpopular Iranian regime wants is to be able to blame all its problems on the Great Satan.

Ken (Old Texican)| 11.10.09 @ 3:58PM

Jim Bob ...Jump Back,
You are a liar. Worse, you are a stupid ignorant liar.
Meet me on any "green" and we can let God sort it out.
Coward...name a time and place.

JimBob| 11.10.09 @ 5:46PM

You're a few bricks short of a full load.

Alan Brooks| 11.13.09 @ 10:32PM

well, Daphne is a few fries short of a happy meal.

But with 4 mil of haldol for dinner, she is feeling no pain.

Ken (Old Texican)| 11.10.09 @ 4:01PM

Jim Bob
I shall have cameras with audio to film the event.
Coward.

Ran| 11.10.09 @ 9:52PM

Thank you, Mr. Bethell, for the interview.

The Administration perhaps fears a successful Iranian revolt for the message it will send to the Tea Party sympathizers. God only knows what will happen elsewhere - say, China... or Washington.

dofus kamas| 11.12.09 @ 5:05AM

http://www.igchest.com

Alan Brooks| 11.13.09 @ 10:11PM

Iranians are ... interesting people.
Here's an Iranian expatriate I knew:
http://rds.yahoo.com/_ylt=A0oG.....258210946/**http://www.scribd.com/doc/20239753/Alan-Brooks-on-FM-2030

Alan Brooks| 11.13.09 @ 10:24PM

... oops, a blind link. Must be the Gremlin in the Kremlin.
Heck with it.

Alan Brooks| 11.13.09 @ 10:26PM

will this do it?:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/2023.....on-FM-2030

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