The Congressional Spectator
Blue Dogs Turn Red
Democrats from conservative districts face a series of uncomfortable votes.
BEFORE CONGRESS ADJOURNED for the summer recess, Republicans stood on the House floor, faced C-SPAN’s cameras, and asked one by one: “Where are the jobs?” It was part of a sustained attack against the president’s stimulus program, a $787 billion behemoth opposed by every Republican in the chamber, which had failed to meet its targets for job creation and unemployment.
The extended one-minute messages assailing the stimulus reflected growing Republican confidence. To be sure, the party remains in many respects leaderless, rudderless, and diminished in its public standing. But Barack Obama and the Democrats are showing their first real signs of weakness. In a two-party system, the voters have only the Republicans to turn to when disappointed with the Democrats.
Not only is the polling clear that President Obama’s policies — even on winning Democratic issues like health care — are less popular than he is personally, but congressional Democrats are starting to face the downside of their 2006 and 2008 victories: they now have a lot of territory to defend, including gains in traditionally Republican and conservative congressional districts that will be difficult to maintain.
These Democrats are increasingly facing votes on key pieces of legislation that will force them to choose between their president and their moderate to- conservative constituents. Liberals hope they choose president and party. “If the president of their party goes down in flames on a major bill, and the Republicans can do a war dance on his (political) grave, whom does that hurt?” asks the Guardian’s American editor, Michael Tomasky. “It hurts all Democrats, but most of all it hurts the most vulnerable ones-the ones from red or barely-blue states.” That is, the centrists.
In other words: Roll over again, Blue Dogs, lest the voters hit your snouts with a rolled-up newspaper. To this advice there is only one reply: Remember Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky? In 1993, this first-term Pennsylvania Democrat spared her president and party an embarrassing defeat on the budget. With numerous defections from Congress’s least liberal Democrats, a unified wall of Republicans came close to defeating Bill Clinton’s first, tax-raising deficit- reduction plan. Margolies-Mezvinsky cast the deciding vote in the House; Al Gore did the same in the Senate.
Clinton’s budget passed. The top marginal income tax rate increased by one-third, the second time it was raised in three years. Drivers were hit with a gasoline tax hike, seniors saw the taxable portion of their Social Security benefits zoom past 80 percent, the middle-class tax cut vanished into the ether of broken campaign promises. A stunning victory for the Democrats and a reminder of how impotent the Republicans had become — until the next election.
Margolies-Mezvinsky went down in flames in 1994. She was joined by dozens of other Democrats representing districts where raising taxes gets you a free ticket to the private sector rather than a Profile in Courage award. Even some Democrats who voted against the Clinton tax increase found themselves washed out with the tide.
Of course, it wasn’t the tax increase alone that doomed the Democrats in Clinton’s first midterm elections. Gays in the military, Joycelyn Elders, the administration’s abortion advocacy, gun control, midnight basketball, and a series of scandals large and small all contributed. But these liberal political gambits hurt Democrats in marginal districts whether they passed (like the crime bill and assault weapons ban) or didn’t even come up for a vote (like the Clinton health care plan).
So far congressional Democrats have been united when it has mattered. In the House, only six of their moderates (plus one liberal) voted against the stimulus. But they are starting to enter the midnight basketball period of votes that really put their most vulnerable members to the test. The first such vote was on the Waxman-Markey cap and trade bill, which Republicans accurately branded the “national energy tax.”
Here is a tax increase that falls particularly hard on manufacturing and energy-producing states, with what might be called a disparate impact on minorities and working-class voters. It is a broad-based tax, not a levy confined to smokers or the richest 1 percent. And it comes at a staggering cost, weighing in at $161 billion by 2020.
Fully 44 House Democrats voted against the bill, including almost 30 of those who represent districts John McCain carried in 2008. “Put another way,” wrote Ronald Brownstein in National Journal, “while 59 percent of the Democrats from districts that McCain carried voted no, just 7 percent of Democrats in Obama-majority districts opposed the White House on the vote.”
Cap and trade faces an even more uncertain future in the Senate, where Waxman-Markey has been undermined by criticism from Western Democratic governors like Brian Schweitzer of Montana and, to a lesser extent, Bill Ritter of Colorado. While there are fewer vulnerable Democratic senators, the party’s centrists have leverage on important committees and major procedural votes.
That didn’t stop Senate Democrats from casting votes likely to enrage gun rights activists, however. In July, the chamber took up a measure by Sen. John Thune (R-SD) that would have allowed concealed-carry permit holders to transport their weapons across state lines. The vote pitted senators from states with more restrictive gun control laws against those hailing from firearms-friendly regions.
Despite a filibuster-proof Democratic supermajority, liberal senators had to mount a filibuster of their own to defeat the Thune amendment. Why? Because red-state Democratic senators defected en masse to vote with the Republicans, including Jim Webb and Mark Warner of Virginia, Mark Pryor and Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, and Mark Begich of Alaska. Even Russ Feingold of Wisconsin, a liberal from a purple state Obama carried, voted with Thune. The final vote was 58 to 39, just two short of breaking a liberal filibuster.
NO ISSUE WILL FORCE MORE uncomfortable votes for such Democrats than health care reform. Tax increases, deficit spending, risks to private health insurance, cuts in Medicare payments, public funding of abortion: all these red-state red flags will come into play before the debate is over. Perhaps that’s why the Blue Dogs are howling louder than ever before.
About the Author
W. James Antle, III, author of the new book Devouring Freedom: Can Big Government Ever Be Stopped?, is editor of the Daily Caller News Foundation and a senior editor of The American Spectator. You can follow him on Twitter @jimantle.
Letter to the Editor View all comments (39) | Leave a comment
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Pingback| 9.14.09 @ 6:41AM
Twitter Trackbacks for The American Spectator : Blue Dogs Turn Red [spectator.org] o links to this page. Here’s an excerpt:
Anthony| 9.14.09 @ 9:06AM
I've long been a fan of term limits, given the systemic corruption and hubris that Congress has exhibited over the past few decades and especially since the Pelosi/ Obama era. That said, let me echo Mark Levin's admonition to the "Blue Dogs"; if you continue to support these outlandish, far left, debt laden, anti-capitalism bills, we will make sure that your cushy tenure in the Congresssional political "big leagues" comes to an end. We will send you all back to the small law firms from where you started your political careers. For some of you, it might be working the 2nd shift at Home Depot. Regardless, you'll be back to being the nobodys that you were. Think Tom Daschle without the K street gig.
Michael L. Hauschild| 9.14.09 @ 9:37AM
News flash: Those blue dogs, so often elevated as the salvation of conservatism, are still democrats. They owe their very beltway existence and access to the “perks” needed to mollify their non ninety-eight percent constituent blocks to the DNC (and foreign campaign funding.) They will cave, as will the RINOS.
The fix is in. The centerpiece of democrat dogma, Universal Health Care, will move foreword, the most vulnerable legislators will be sacrificed, or “take one for the team.”
The bill to come out of the house will be “soft,” resplendent in the “bipartisanship” banner of compromise and aimed at the Palin, Wilson, Tea Party influence.
The bill to come out of the house will be the “hard” version bereft of all semblances of capitulation and born on the “budget” criteria by the minions of “The Reparations Candidate.”
The mischief will occur in the joint bill markup (if you can call socialism mischief). The moderate and conservative provisions will be stripped, the house majority will pass the “compromise” bill, the Senate will use the nuclear option to do the same, Obama will use a pen with the Union Label (made in china and bearing a red star) to sign the bill.
I had hoped that the public outcry so evident this weekend would have held some sway but unless you watched Fox you would not know since the alphabeters reported the “town hall” event held by POTUS as more significant.
I suspect that the only hope to save the greatest health care system in the world now is that the legislature is so inefficient that they delay past the cloture boundary.
What I have stated is the worse case scenario but you must realize that stimulus, cap and trade, and czars are all currently viable.
Tenn Slim| 9.14.09 @ 10:02AM
I had hoped that the public outcry so evident this weekend would have held some sway but unless you watched Fox you would not know since the alphabeters reported the “town hall” event held by POTUS as more significant.
ALL
The Fox net reported the event positively, CNN sneered and NBC ignored it. Sunday Shows referenced the event, but largely ignored the message.
HOWEVER< my Blue Dog Rep from Western Tenn did not. He took notice, as the event was also played out in HIS district. He also has been the Recipient of the Glenn Beck Question list, responded VERY quick, as the Staffer know that 2010 may well be the end of their jobs.
bt
Semper Fi
Ken (Old Texican)| 9.14.09 @ 10:22AM
One of the contributors here mentioned "the healthcare issue" as the SPARK that lit a revolution in our country.
Precisely on point!
But!
Let's carry the analogy a little further, shall we?
One spark does NOT a forest fire make.
We need a "forest fire" and right now! The more tinder we can throw on that spark, then the kindling wood, then the timbers...Together we can achieve More.
There is an entire array of "dictatorial fire-fighters" on the way to extinguish our spark.
Many of them are invisible bureacrats being hired by the thousands every day by the government with only one goal; to regulate our liberty right out of existence.
TEAM America was founded to support the thousands of grass roots patriots' groups efforts on our behalf.
Our mission is unique, and our tactics and strategies have been brilliantly pieced together by the writers and you commenters right here at the Spectator. We want to thank every single one of you!!!!! Keep the kindling coming! Or, as they liked to quip during World War II "Pray to God and pass the ammunition".
(Yes, we even appreciate the trolls and Soros employees. They give us splendid insight into the thinking and various propaganda sprinklers of the opposition.)
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They are local. Many of their livelihoods are dependent upon people of all political persuasions buying their goods and services, or employers who need to stay off the political battlefield for the very same reasons.
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That is one reason we keep all of our Team members' identities absolutely confidential,and it is the reason we screen every comment to make sure confidentiality is not accidently compromised.
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There are literally thousands of local groups coast to coast we can help. See, youall have helped us understand a key thing in any election and it is sorta' ackbaswards...If we get the votes, especially during the nominating phase, heh heh heh...the campaign money follows.....NOT THE OTHER WAY AROUND AS MANY OF US THOUGHT FOR MANY YEARS.
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You will note on that home-page that our very first link to solid thought is...sonofagun...right here. You can go to www.myteamusa.org and glimpse our headlines of follow up actions we are pursuing.
Best regards
James C. Harwood | 9.14.09 @ 11:54AM
As NBC's Meet the Press was about to come on Sunday 13 September 2009, I heard a teaser about one of the topics. I thought it was, “Are moderates vanishing?” Then whoever was going to address that subject was named. They never got to it, and I didn't find anything about it in the posted transcript. I just did a Google Search in News for “vanishing moderates” and one of the results listed is the excellent article “Blue Dogs Turn Red” by W James Antle III from the September 2009 issue at the American Spectator website. In it is the line, “In a two-party system, the voters have only the Republicans to turn to when disappointed with the Democrats.” That is in fact the reality of the situation. Even so, it need not remain that way. I hear a lot of talk of “centrist Republicans and centrist Democrats.” There can be a third choice, as indicated at the World's Smallest Political Quiz website. There is the old question of “Which came first, the chicken or the egg?” A flawed question because it does not include a possible third option. The egg is the child, the chicken is the mother, the rooster is the father. So maybe the rooster came first. Likewise, the question of being a left liberal Democrat or a right conservative Republican is flawed. Is our political system suffering from Bipolar Disorder? If so, then the cure is a realistic third choice. As a moderate centrist, I am now a member of the American Centrist Party [dot net]. I am posting this in Comments following the Antle article, and Letter to the Editor there, also in the American Centrist Party forum http://americancentristparty.net/phpbb/index.php website, and at my HEREafter Realms http://hereafterebooks.blogspot.com blog, noted where I am HEREafter1956 at Twitter. – James C. Harwood, Science Fiction Author, Norman Oklahoma.
Michael L. Hauschild| 9.14.09 @ 11:58AM
Tenn Slim,
".......my Blue Dog Rep from Western Tenn did not. He took notice, as the event was also played out in HIS district. He also has been the Recipient of the Glenn Beck Question list, responded VERY quick, as the Staffer know that 2010 may well be the end of their jobs."
They have the votes. Your rep will be:
1. Given a pass
2. Sacraficed
3. Take one for the team (which you seem to doubt, so we trust you there)
Do not become complacent and do not trust them or you will be standing in line at the doctor's office.
Michael L. Hauschild| 9.14.09 @ 12:10PM
I meant to say the "hard" version would come out of the Senate, sorry.
tj| 9.14.09 @ 12:22PM
We need to picket the
offices of the commie media and demand they tell the truth.... Acorn did it to the bank so lets use Alinsky rules against them and bring them down... they are already tanking... so maybe a "Nudge" in right direction!!!
JP| 9.14.09 @ 2:33PM
Moderates seem to be the first to go when things go south. Remember such moderates as Liddy Dole, and Chuck Hegel? Remember Rep Shays? The Left is no different; Conservative or Moderate Dems are hard to find -and I'm speaking of voting record and not rhetoric.
The New England Liberal Republican and the Southern Conservative Democrat are almost an endangered species.
stmichrick| 9.14.09 @ 2:43PM
The primary characteristic of a Blue Dog is an the ability to have things BOTH ways.
It usually happens in conservative areas of one party states. It always happens when Republicans cannot field a viable candidates. The issues may be on our side, but the Party lets us down.
Hopefully, our current excursion into socialism will purge the party and bring forward more PRINCIPLED leadership.
Michael Tomlinson| 9.14.09 @ 4:26PM
Despite Antle's former love affair with Obama's lying blue lapdogs he paints a potentially bloody red picture for these reliable yellow dogs (they vote 80% of the time for the neo-fascist Obama-Pelosi-Reid DemocRAT agenda).
That these curs are skulking cowards afraid of their records is proven by yellow backed Blanche Lincoln running away from her constituents during the last Congressional recess (a fitting word for the juvenile blue lap cur liberals). Even the centrist Democrat-Gazette (Arkansas' one major news rag) mocked and belittled yellow dog DemocRAT Lincoln for her cowardice to face the voters.
In a state securely DemocRAT in all but Presidential elections since the disastrous Huckster governorship of corruption and taxes Republicans are salivating at the thought of taking on the Reid minion. A credible could send this DemocRAT to the kennel with her tail between her legs.
As for misogynist Webb, rich-boy Warner, mealy mouthed Pryor, election-stealing Begich and Obama loyalist Casey rest assured they'll heel like the rest of Obama's bitches when the leash is yanked by their masters (Obama-Reid-Pelosi and Hoyer).
Hopefully, voters will euthanize the blue curs (what Obama Democrats seem to want to do with senior citizens) and replace them with Republicans who will tear into Obama's despotic agenda like junkyard dogs after a rat.
Conservatives learn the lesson -- a flea bitten blue dog is still a stinking reliably liberal yellow dog.
John Navratil| 9.14.09 @ 5:55PM
Mr. Hauschild,
I do not despair that the "blue dogs" are a safe vote for the Dems. I agree with you that they will...
1. be given a pass
2. sacrificed
3. take one for the team
If they are all given a pass, the Dems lose (not enough votes).
If they are sacrificed, they are faced with a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" conundrum. Do they vote against the party and lose all party support in 2010, or with it and face losing in the general election. It is hard to imagine the party throwing an incumbent over in a mid-term for an unknown quantity. My bet it they read the tea leaves and take the bet that the party might make an example of one, but not of many.
"Taking one for the team" is the question. The question for the rep is if the team is strong enough to save their seat in repayment for such loyalty. We will see, but that isn't an easy call to make.
Michael L. Hauschild| 9.14.09 @ 7:50PM
Mr. Navratil,
"Taking one for the team" means they will be first in line for some plum appointment anointment , which is not the doomsday scenario many here predict for them. (And by my head count they have the votes.) Do you really think that the devious bean counters who have been counting heads for a living do not know exactly the tally they need? Anyone that thinks "all" of the blue dogs will vote with the republicans is completely naive and simply begging for another lesson in political skulduggery.
All I am saying is that they are now balancing their losses against their post Roosevelt dream of goverment run health care.
Do not become complacent, do not hesitate to every day contact your representatives, do not sit back and relax, send the candidates where ever, whenever, and whatever you can afford directly. This has been a good weekend but it is simply a battle in a long war.
Ken (Old Texican)| 9.14.09 @ 8:35PM
Honestly, people!
Are you going to sit beside the road and bitch? Are you going to DO anything...but bitch?
Are you going to dust yourselves off and stand as free Americans?
Or .....are you going to sit in the ditch and bitch?
Several hundred of you have stood up and are marching. Where in hell are the rest of you bitchers? www.myteamusa.org
Ken (Old Texican)| 9.14.09 @ 8:43PM
Sorry, people!
Most of you cannot spend $20......even on a hope for freedom?
If even a chance at joining us and preserving freedom is not worth $20 dollars to you...then rot while the Soros' of the world take even your twenty dollars...and spend it on someone else.
I sometimes wonder why I spend any time here. ALLLLL these bright thoughts.........and no action I can perceive.
Please, get off your dead arses and help us turn this country around. ( www.myteamusa.org )
Spicy Joker| 9.14.09 @ 10:08PM
The Lap Dog Democrats aren't our friends.
Michael L. Hauschild| 9.14.09 @ 10:41PM
Ken,
I will send you forty dollars, however you must refrain from stating that I have a dead arse, arthritic knees and hands yes, but my arse is just fine.
Michael L. Hauschild| 9.14.09 @ 10:53PM
Ken,
Better get over to your web site and see why I can not connect with Pay Pal or why I cannot use the email form to find an address to send a check.
Put your address here if you think that proper.
Ken (Old Texican)| 9.15.09 @ 2:31PM
Michael
I'm sorry, guys. The trigger is obviously not "robust enough" yet. Lots of sign ups. Thanks for the heads up, Michael.
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