JERUSALEM — It is an affectation of history textbooks to
describe the periods immediately preceding wars as pregnant with
portents of impending conflict. We all grew up reading about
storm clouds gathering across the horizon and nations being
placed on war footings, generally at the end of chapters. It
seems likely that many of those battles began suddenly, with the
citizenry of both countries suspecting little, but this does not
suit the dramatic needs of classroom presentation.
Still, we have all experienced the kind of tense prewar buildup
where everyone knows what is coming. In the first Gulf War, the
first President Bush first gave Saddam Hussein an ultimatum to
pull his invaders out of Kuwait by January 15, 1991, or else. The
else was taking shape by the day, as over half a million of
American troops were being shipped on huge destroyers to Saudi
Arabia. Mister Hussein was not impressed, responding only by
threatening to bomb Israel if he was attacked. I was living in
Israel at the time and I vividly recall how we counted down the
days to the inevitable.
In the end, the war started only one night late and went exactly
as expected. America liberated Kuwait, Hussein dumped 39 Scud
missiles into Israel, with the Israeli government biting its
official lip and staying out of the fireworks. Twelve years later
the second President Bush did something similar, although without
the precisely dated ultimatum, and no one was surprised when the
bombing of Iraq began, followed shortly thereafter by the
American invasion.
Now in 2009, here I am again in Israel, this time as a tourist,
and the situation is roughly the same, with the players altered
somewhat. This time everyone knows that Israel must attack Iran,
and relatively soon, but the timing is not quite definitive. For
a best guess, most of the cagy codgers here who have seen it all
are betting on early October. There have been some indications
that the Obama administration has given Iran until September to
accept Uncle Sam’s outstretched hand or else. The Obama else will
be more of an Elsie, speaking loudly and carrying a small stick.
But Israel does not consider itself bound by American long-range
assessments, nor has the President won its trust. Israeli Knesset
members on the right have taken to referring to our chief
executive as Barack Hussein Obama, but it is unlikely this
represents an expression of friendly familiarity.
The biggest danger for Israel would have been if Iran suddenly
accepted the American overtures and began some phoney diplomatic
process designed to buy time. This would have trapped Israel in a
pincer, placing it in a no-win situation. If it did not act Iran
would complete its nuclear weapon while stalling Obama at the
negotiating table. If it did act it would be seen as needlessly
undermining the well-crafted, showing-progress, breakthrough
initiative of the debonair American President.
Here fate has interceded in the form of the contested Iranian
election. With the Islamic regime killing protesters on streets
and in prisons, it is essentially forced to back this up with
uncompromising rhetoric. This is hardly a moment it can exploit
to show a smiley-face to the American public. Moreover, if Iran
agreed to sit down, the U.S. would have to insist on a complete
end to overt repression of political opponents. Israel should
have the breathing room it needs to take care of business.
Among potential winners of a successful foray by Israel is the
Republican Party. Thus far the party has not taken a strong
position against Obama squeezing Israel. An Israeli effort
against the Iranian nuclear capacity would be met by very strong
condemnation among Obama’s Democrat colleagues. They would wind
up sounding like Europe redux. If Republicans stood alone in
lauding this action, it could go a long way towards clarifying
who supporters of Israel can really trust.
All of this is easy to say, but the reality is fraught with
margin for error. If Israel gets it right, as it did with the
Iraq nuclear plant in Osirak during the Reagan administration,
the odds are the complaints will die down quickly enough. On the
other hand… there is no other hand. If ‘twere done ‘tgotta be
done well. Failure is not an option.
